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Analysis of the Financial Impacts of Building Performance Standard Penalties on Commercial Buildings in Aurora, Colorado

Buildings are responsible for 30% of total energy consumption worldwide. To address building energy, jurisdictions in the USA have enacted Building Performance Standards (BPS) legislation. The objective of BPS is to reduce energy consumption in buildings, thereby reducing the energy burden on utility infrastructure and other externalities. This is accomplished by setting mandatory energy use limits coupled with penalties for exceeding those limits. One of the key questions in BPS policymaking is how these penalties might impact the finances of building owners and tenants. This paper presents an analysis of BPS penalties in Aurora, Colorado, specifically targeting buildings impacted by the adopted statewide BPS legislation. Several BPS penalty structures were applied to the affected building stock in Aurora, and the potential impacts on building owner returns and tenant rents were estimated. The results show that for some combinations of building types and penalty structures, potential rent increases due to penalties could match or exceed typical yearly rent increases. The results also show that in most cases, for Aurora, there was no statistically significant difference in impact between buildings located in under-resourced and well-resourced areas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nonlinear Impact-Echo Test for Quantitative Evaluation of ASR Damage in Concrete

Nonlinear acoustic methods demonstrate high sensitivity for concrete damage evaluation. Among these methods, nonlinear resonance acoustic methods have been widely used in laboratory tests on small scale test samples. In this study, a nonlinear impact-echo (IE) method for concrete damage evaluation was introduced, in which the IE frequency shift was measured at different impact force levels. The nonlinear IE test and the nonlinear impact resonance acoustic spectroscopy (NIRAS) test share similarities in the experimental setup and analysis method. However, the nonlinear IE test excites a local thickness resonance mode of a member instead of the global resonance vibration. Therefore, the analyzed mode is unaffected by member boundary conditions and is applicable to large concrete structural members. To identify the fundamental IE frequencies, multiple impacts were applied along the members. Once the fundamental IE frequencies were determined, the effectiveness of the nonlinear IE method was evaluated by testing seven concrete beam specimens with varying levels of alkali-silica reaction (ASR) damage. In conclusion, the nonlinear IE test demonstrates high sensitivity to concrete damage and allows for quantitative assessment of the damage state of concrete without a baseline measurement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermal impacts on nondestructive analysis measurements of uranium hexafluoride

A series of nondestructive assay measurements were performed before, during, and after localized heating of an industrial standard 12B cylinder of uranium hexafluoride to replicate dose variations previously observed on commercial 30B cylinders. While cylinders represent a closed system, enrichment measurements may be impacted by altered uranium and daughter product distributions due to sublimation. A series of measurements were performed to examine localized heating impacts on dose rates, ratios of uranium and daughter product distributions, and measured 235 U enrichment as calculated by two different approaches. The less complex enrichment meter approaches were found to be more robust and less prone to deviation than isotope ratio approaches such as FRAM, but the impact can be minimized by using observable dose changes to avoid impacted areas.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

The impact of habitat fragmentation on domatia-dwelling mites and a mite-plant-fungus tritrophic interaction

Abstract Context Habitat fragmentation is a leading threat to biodiversity, yet the impacts of fragmentation on most taxa, let alone interactions among those taxa, remain largely unknown. Objectives We studied how three consequences of fragmentation—reduced patch connectivity, altered patch shape, and edge proximity—impact plant-dwelling mite communities and mite-plant-fungus interactions within a large-scale habitat fragmentation experiment. Methods We sampled mite communities from the leaves of Quercus nigra (a plant species that has foliar domatia which harbor fungivorous and predacious mites) near and far from edge within fragments of varying edge-to-area ratio (shape) and connectivity via corridors. We also performed a mite-exclusion experiment across these fragmentation treatments to test the effects of mite presence and fungal hyphal abundance on leaf surfaces. Results Habitat edges influenced the abundance and richness of leaf-dwelling mites; plants closer to the edge had higher mite abundance and species richness. Likewise, hyphal counts were higher on leaves near patch edges. Despite both mite and fungal abundance being higher at patch edges, leaf hyphal counts were not impacted by mite abundance on those leaves. Neither patch shape nor connectivity influenced mite abundance, mite species richness, or the influence of mites on leaf surface fungal abundance. Conclusion Our results suggest that mites and foliar fungi may be independently affected by edge-structured environmental gradients, like temperature, rather than trophic effects. We demonstrate that large-scale habitat fragmentation and particularly edge effects can have impacts on multiple levels of microscopic communities, even in the absence of cascading trophic effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Here, we propose a supervised learning approach using publicly available panel data to statistically quantify the specific manifestations of human impacts of an extreme event, such as changes number of suicides, substance abuse, excess mortality, and unemployment. This allows us to conceptually focus our framework on human impacts and how by attributing them to disaster events along widely accepted psychological, economic, and social dimensions. Our modified treatment-effect model allows counterfactual baseline conditions to be posited for each manifestation from which an aggregated quantitative multi-faceted measure of human impacts can be determined. The developed statistical methodology could be beneficial to policymakers who must allocate scarce resources to those communities in greater need. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using annual and monthly panel data from 2012 to 2018 encompassing the 2017 Hurricane Maria event across various municipalities in Puerto Rico. Our statistical modeling methodology stands apart since (i) it explicitly and more realistically captures the effect of different human-oriented manifestations of an actual event and (ii) it is flexible enough to accommodate individual preferences of various stakeholders in how they assign importance to multiple manifestations of human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluate the impact of sensor accuracy on model performance in data-driven building fault detection and diagnostics using Monte Carlo simulation

The performance of data-driven fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) is heavily dependent on sensors. However, sensor inaccuracy and sensor faults are pervasive in building operation: inaccurate and missing sensor readings deteriorate FDD performance; sensor inaccuracy will also affect the selection of sensor for data-driven FDD in the model training process, which is another key factor of data-driven FDD performance. Sensor accuracy and sensor selection individually are well-studied research topics in this field, but the impact of sensor accuracy on sensor selection and its further impact on FDD performance has not been evaluated and quantified. In this paper, we developed a novel analysis methodology that comprehensively evaluates sensor fault on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to deal with multiple stochastic sensor inaccuracy and provide probabilistic analysis results of the impact of sensor inaccuracy on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. This methodology focuses on the net impact of fault states across a full sensor set. The developed methodology can be used for the early-stage sensor design and operation-stage sensor maintenance. Furthermore, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the analysis methodology using a commercial building model crated to Flexible Research Platform located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

COVID-19 impacts on residential occupancy schedules and activities in U.S. Homes in 2020 using ATUS

Many aspects of the daily lives of those living in the United States were substantially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in the year 2020. A broad diversity of measures was implemented to curb the spread of the virus, many of which included adjustments to where and how people worked, went to school, and otherwise conducted their daily lives compared to pre-pandemic times. This has impacted how residential buildings are used, how much time people spend in their homes, and as a result, how much energy these buildings consume. The main objective of this study is to analyze, at a national scale, the differences in the occupancy schedules and activities conducted in homes in the U.S., as compared to pre-pandemic. 15 years of American Time Use Survey and Current Population Survey data, from 2006 to 2020, was used in this study to analyze the occupancy schedules for both pandemic (2020) and pre-pandemic (2006–2019) times. These impacts were also analyzed with respect to variables including, weekday/weekend, month of the year, age of the occupants, household income, and household size. The impact of the pandemic on occupant schedules were most substantial in the initial months, whereas as the months progressed, these occupancy profiles slowly changed. Across 2020, people spent, on average, 8 % more time (1.9 h) in their home on weekdays, and 3–6 % (1.2 h) on weekend days. The percentage of time spent for different activities and locations within homes were also studied. For 1-member households, their time spent at home decreased whereas for 2-, 3-, and 4- member households, they spent more time at home. Overall, people spent around 45% more time doing office- and work-related activities at home compared to pre-pandemic, which is likely due to increased remote working and schooling. This research helps to improve the understanding of the occupancy presence and absence profiles in U.S. residential buildings due to the pandemic and provides new insights as to modified profiles for researchers, building designers, and policy makers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit

We report ambitious targets for carbon emissions reductions are highlighting new challenges for electrification strategies, leading to an increased focus on building load flexibility and energy management to complement the variability inherent in renewable energy generation. Over the next decade millions of existing homes could undergo electrification retrofits, and there is an urgent need to understand the potential impacts of electrifying major residential loads such as water and space heating on community load characteristics, resident energy bills, and the utility's distribution system. Behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs), including efficiency measures, photovoltaics (PV), battery storage, managed electric vehicle (EV) charging, and controls such as home energy management systems (HEMS), can significantly alter a neighborhood's load profile and provide benefits to both the residents and the grid. We present a novel approach to characterizing the impact of a hypothetical neighborhood-scale residential retrofit program on individual homes' energy use profiles, associated utility bills, and the local distribution system. We modeled a mixed-fuel community of 30 single-family homes in Denver, Colorado, and compared the effects of retrofit scenarios ranging from conventional energy-efficiency upgrades to full electrification with and without more advanced DER technologies. We analyzed which packages of DERs most reliably enable demand flexibility in response to a time-of-use (TOU) rate for this and similar neighborhoods. Our buildings-to-grid co-simulation framework includes a generic secondary distribution feeder model to capture voltage profiles, transformer loading, and other grid impacts in each case. We also calculated the carbon emissions associated with energy use in the community. The methodology developed here can be broadly applied to community-scale beneficial electrification studies in other regions, climates, utility infrastructures, and building typologies to make specific, targeted recommendations based on quantified projections of energy demand in any given community. Our findings indicate that residential electrification can be achieved without negatively impacting the monthly utility bill, and that a combination of conventional energy-efficiency measures, PV, battery, controls, and managed EV charging to maximize a community's demand flexibility is a promising strategy. Adding DERs (especially PV) as part of efficient electrification produces much bigger savings than efficient electrification without DERs. A key barrier is that upgrades require upfront costs, and modest utility bill savings result in long payback periods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Air quality impacts from the development of unconventional oil and gas well pads: Air toxics and other volatile organic compounds

Unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD) has expanded rapidly across the United States in recent decades and raised concerns about associated air quality impacts. While significant effort has been made to quantify methane emissions, relatively few observations have been made of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), especially during drilling and completion of new wells. Extensive air monitoring during development of several large, multi-well pads in Broomfield, Colorado, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, provides a novel opportunity to examine changes in local air toxics and other VOC concentrations during well drilling and completions and production. These operations offer an especially useful case to study as several management practices were implemented to reduce emissions (e.g., electrified, grid-powered drill rigs and closed loop fluid handling systems to reduce truck traffic and limit fluid handling on the pad). With simultaneous measurements of methane and 50 VOCs from October 2018 to December 2022 at as many as 19 sites near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a more distant reference location, we identify impacts from each phase of well development and production. Use of weekly, time-integrated canisters, a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), continuous photoionization detectors (PID) to trigger canister collection upon detection of VOC-rich plumes, and an instrumented vehicle, provided a powerful suite of measurements to characterize both transient plumes and longer-term changes in air quality. Prior to the start of well development, VOC gradients were small across Broomfield. Once drilling commenced, concentrations of oil and gas (O&G) related VOCs, including alkanes and aromatics, increased around active well pads. Concentration increases were clearly apparent during certain operations, including drilling, coil tubing/millout operations, and production tubing installation. Emissions of C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes during drilling operations highlighted the importance of VOC emissions from synthetic drilling mud chosen to reduce odor impacts. More than 90 samples were collected of transient plumes. Using composition measurements, meteorological data, and information about well pad activities, these plumes were connected with specific UOGD operations including drilling, flowback, and production equipment maintenance. The chemical signatures of these plumes differed by operation type (e.g., C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes constituted a larger fraction of measured VOCs in drilling-related plumes). Concentrations of individual, oil and gas-related VOCs in these plumes were often several orders of magnitude higher than in background air, with maximum ethane and benzene concentrations of 79,600 and 819 ppbv, respectively. Because these plumes typically impact a monitoring site for just several minutes, they are easily missed by slower-responding instruments. Study measurements highlight future emission mitigation opportunities during UOGD operations, including better control of emissions from shakers that separate drill cuttings from drilling mud, production separator maintenance operations, and periodic emptying of sand cans during flowback operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impacts of building characteristics, social psychological and cultural factors on indoor environment quality productivity belief

Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) plays a key role in determining occupants' productivity at work; however, analyses of the interconnected factors among building physical, attitudinal, social and demographic components in one study are lacking. To fill this research gap, this study investigates these interconnected factors' influence on occupants’ IEQ-productivity belief, defined as a personal, subjective evaluation of the linkage between the impacts of five IEQ aspects (the quality of indoor temperature, air, natural and electric lighting, and acoustics) and productivity. A cross-sectional survey data was collected in university offices from six countries (Brazil, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, Taiwan and the U.S.). Results of multiple linear regression models indicate that IEQ satisfaction is the strongest positive predictor of the IEQ-productivity belief and this relationship is stronger in private offices. Country of residence is the second primary predictor. Several attitudinal-behavioral factors, including thermal comfort, perceived ease of controlling indoor environmental features, and attitudes toward sharing controls are all positively associated with IEQ-productivity belief. Interestingly, the level of control accessibility to light switches has the strongest impact as opposed to other controls. On the other hand, group norms and conformity intention are not significant predictors. Regarding demographics, men are more likely than women to perceive the IEQs to have positive impacts on their productivity, without considering other variables in the regression model; however, women are more likely than men to consider all IEQs as having positive impacts on productivity, after considering other variables. Furthermore, our findings provide suggestions for prioritizing wellness in the workplace since the early design stage.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Impacts of anthropogenic gadolinium on the activity of the ammonia oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea

Widespread use of gadolinium-based contrast agents in medical imaging has resulted in increased Gd inputs to municipal wastewater treatment plants. Others have reported that typical wastewater treatment does not attenuate Gd, resulting in discharges to natural waters. However, whether elevated Gd impacts the performance of biological treatment has not been investigated. We examined whether gadolinium chloride or Gd chelated with diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) affected the activity of the model nitrifying bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea. At nominal GdCl 3 additions ranging from 1 to 500 µM, no impact was observed compared to the control. Most (>98%) of the added Gd precipitated, and extracellular GdPO 4 nanoparticles were observed. When chelated with DTPA, Gd remained soluble, but no statistically significant impact on ammonia oxidation was observed until the highest concentrations tested. At 300 and 500 µM Gd-DTPA, a temporary reduction of nitrite production relative to the control (effect size 1.3 mg l -1 and 1.5 mg l -1 , respectively, at 24 h) was seen. By itself, DTPA was highly inhibitory. Modeling suggested that DTPA likely chelated other metals, but adjusting the concentrations of the most abundant metals in the medium, calcium and magnesium, indicated that lowering their free ion activities was probably not the cause of inhibition. Complexation of other essential metals was more likely. Furthermore, our studies indicate that while the low bioavailability of Gd may limit its ecosystem impacts, the role of synthetic ligands used with Gd and other rare earth elements should e considered as the production, use and disposal of these elements increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of gasoline composition on the effects of nitric oxide on autoignition and knock in a DISI engine

Modern spark-ignition engines use exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) to dilute the charge and suppress knock, enabling the use of higher compression ratios and/or more optimum combustion phasing for higher efficiency. The effectiveness of EGR is affected by the composition of the fuel and its chemical-kinetic interactions with combustion products. Among those, nitric oxide (NO) has been shown to strongly affect autoignition reactivity. However, the impact of fuel composition of the effect of NO on reactivity is not well-understood. Here, in this study, engine experiments were conducted to assess the impact of NO seeded to the intake on knock-limited operation of two gasoline fuels (high cycloalkane content, or HCA, and high olefin content, or HO). Results showed that compositionally-different fuels responded differently to NO. HCA, which was less knock-limited than HO for NO < 200 ppm, became more knock-limited for NO > 200 ppm. Moreover, it was found that differences in knock between fuels were caused by differences in autoignition chemistry and not in the sequential autoignition process of the end gas that occurs due to thermal stratification. Chemical kinetic simulations were performed to better understand the experimental results. For HCA, intermediate-temperature heat release had a greater impact on autoignition reactivity than low-temperature heat release, while the opposite was observed for HO. For both fuels, NO enhances the magnitude of low-temperature heat release via NO + HO 2 → NO 2 + OH. The effect of NO on reactivity was stronger for HCA because OH produced from NO helped to overcome the OH quenching effect of cyclopentane, a main species in HCA. In contrast, HO had relatively strong inherent low-temperature chemistry arising from iso-octane, which reduced the impact of NO on reactivity. For the range of NO mole fractions tested in this study, in-cylinder NO increased fuel’s knock propensity, especially for fuels with mild low-temperature chemistry.

Autoignition↗

Comparison of interlaminar damage modeling strategies for hybrid composite/aluminum laminates subjected to low-velocity impact

Low-velocity impact of hybrid metal-composite structures was investigated experimentally and computationally. Composite laminates consisting of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) were joined with a 6061-T6 aluminum plate using an epoxy adhesive. Two variations of the structure were studied; one consisting of all plies oriented at 0° and one consisting of all plies oriented at 45°. A drop tower was used to impact structures at a range of energies, including energies above and below the threshold at which the aluminum layer was perforated. Numerical simulations were implemented using Sierra/SM, an in-house transient dynamics finite element code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A Hosford plasticity model was used to describe the response of the aluminum layer. A newly implemented orthotropic continuum damage mechanics (CDM) constitutive model was used to represent the composite laminate. This 3D-CDM model was compared to a cohesive zone model (2D-CDM/CZM) to investigate efficacy of aluminum perforation energy prediction, delamination prediction, and computational cost. Accuracy of each model was evaluated using the experimental results. Each showed good agreement with the tests for both the force and velocity histories, as well as the observed damage mechanisms. The 2D-CDM/CZM model was marginally more accurate in capturing both the composite and aluminum behavior — this model averaged error percentages of -11.2% and 10.8% for residual velocity and peak force, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3D-CDM model predictions yielded average error percentages of -35.5% (velocity) and 22.6% (force). However, the 3D-CDM model generally resulted in a decreased computational cost; the average run time was 14% shorter than the 2D-CDM/CZM model and 3x as many timesteps per hour were computed using the same computational resources. In conclusion, new experimental data on the impact and perforation resistance of metal-composite laminates is presented in addition to numerical predictions of the impact behavior.

Carbon fiber↗

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding the impacts of inorganic species in woody biomass for preprocessing and pyrolysis–A review

Woody biomass represents an abundant resource for sustainable biofuels, biochemicals, and bioproducts. Technologies for converting woody biomass have been established for decades, and research consistently highlights the critical role of inorganic species and ash plays in feedstock handling and conversion processes, including equipment plugging, corrosion, and catalyst deactivation. A thorough understanding of the variability, transport behavior, and downstream impact of inorganic species in woody biomass is essential for defining feedstock quality specifications and developing effective management strategies for conversion processes. This review compiles critical information in five main sections: 1) inorganic species concentration in woody biomass, based on anatomical fractions and their sources of variability; 2) technique features for quantifying inorganic elemental chemical analysis; 3) impacts of inorganic species on biomass preprocessing; 4) impacts of inorganic species on pyrolysis, and 5) mitigation strategies. Additionally, this review explores future challenges and opportunities in addressing the impacts of inorganic species on biomass quality. These insights aim to support the sustainable development of the biomass-to-bioenergy pipeline and ensure high-quality lignocellulosic feedstocks for efficient downstream conversions. The findings offer valuable guidance to policy makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers in developing effective strategies for managing inorganic species in woody biomass and fostering the sustainable processes for lignocellulosic biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗