Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “humans”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Identification and Characterization of Key Human Performance Issues and Research in the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

This report identifies key human-performance-related issues associated with Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) research in the NASA NextGen-Airspace Project. Four Research Focus Areas (RFAs) in the NextGen-Airspace Project - namely Separation Assurance (SA), Airspace Super Density Operations (ASDO), Traffic Flow Management (TFM), and Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) - were examined closely. In the course of the research, it was determined that the identified human performance issues needed to be analyzed in the context of NextGen operations rather than through basic human factors research. The main gaps in human factors research in NextGen were found in the need for accurate identification of key human-systems related issues within the context of specific NextGen concepts and better design of the operational requirements for those concepts. By focusing on human-system related issues for individual concepts, key human performance issues for the four RFAs were identified and described in this report. In addition, mixed equipage airspace with components of two RFAs were characterized to illustrate potential human performance issues that arise from the integration of multiple concepts.

Lee, Paul U.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Human factors process failure modes and effects analysis (HF PFMEA) software tool

Methods, computer-readable media, and systems for automatically performing Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis for a process are provided. At least one task involved in a process is identified, where the task includes at least one human activity. The human activity is described using at least one verb. A human error potentially resulting from the human activity is automatically identified, the human error is related to the verb used in describing the task. A likelihood of occurrence, detection, and correction of the human error is identified. The severity of the effect of the human error is identified. The likelihood of occurrence, and the severity of the risk of potential harm is identified. The risk of potential harm is compared with a risk threshold to identify the appropriateness of corrective measures.

Chandler, Faith T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

Culbert, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

3D Normal Human Neural Progenitor Tissue-Like Assemblies: A Model of Persistent VZV Infection

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is a neurotropic human alphaherpesvirus that causes varicella upon primary infection, establishes latency in multiple ganglionic neurons, and can reactivate to cause zoster. Live attenuated VZV vaccines are available; however, they can also establish latent infections and reactivate. Studies of VZV latency have been limited to the analyses of human ganglia removed at autopsy, as the virus is strictly a human pathogen. Recently, terminally differentiated human neurons have received much attention as a means to study the interaction between VZV and human neurons; however, the short life-span of these cells in culture has limited their application. Herein, we describe the construction of a model of normal human neural progenitor cells (NHNP) in tissue-like assemblies (TLAs), which can be successfully maintained for at least 180 days in three-dimensional (3D) culture, and exhibit an expression profile similar to that of human trigeminal ganglia. Infection of NHNP TLAs with cell-free VZV resulted in a persistent infection that was maintained for three months, during which the virus genome remained stable. Immediate-early, early and late VZV genes were transcribed, and low-levels of infectious VZV were recurrently detected in the culture supernatant. Our data suggest that NHNP TLAs are an effective system to investigate long-term interactions of VZV with complex assemblies of human neuronal cells.

Goodwin, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Human-Robot Interaction Directed Research Project

Human-robot interaction (HRI) is a discipline investigating the factors affecting the interactions between humans and robots. It is important to evaluate how the design of interfaces and command modalities affect the human's ability to perform tasks accurately, efficiently, and effectively when working with a robot. By understanding the effects of interface design on human performance, workload, and situation awareness, interfaces can be developed to appropriately support the human in performing tasks with minimal errors and with appropriate interaction time and effort. Thus, the results of research on human-robot interfaces have direct implications for the design of robotic systems. This DRP concentrates on three areas associated with interfaces and command modalities in HRI which are applicable to NASA robot systems: 1) Video Overlays, 2) Camera Views, and 3) Command Modalities. The first study focused on video overlays that investigated how Augmented Reality (AR) symbology can be added to the human-robot interface to improve teleoperation performance. Three types of AR symbology were explored in this study, command guidance (CG), situation guidance (SG), and both (SCG). CG symbology gives operators explicit instructions on what commands to input, whereas SG symbology gives operators implicit cues so that operators can infer the input commands. The combination of CG and SG provided operators with explicit and implicit cues allowing the operator to choose which symbology to utilize. The objective of the study was to understand how AR symbology affects the human operator's ability to align a robot arm to a target using a flight stick and the ability to allocate attention between the symbology and external views of the world. The study evaluated the effects type of symbology (CG and SG) has on operator tasks performance and attention allocation during teleoperation of a robot arm. The second study expanded on the first study by evaluating the effects of the type of navigational guidance (CG and SG) on operator task performance and attention allocation during teleoperation of a robot arm through uplinked commands. Although this study complements the first study on navigational guidance with hand controllers, it is a separate investigation due to the distinction in intended operators (i.e., crewmembers versus ground-operators). A third study looked at superimposed and integrated overlays for teleoperation of a mobile robot using a hand controller. When AR is superimposed on the external world, it appears to be fixed onto the display and internal to the operators' workstation. Unlike superimposed overlays, integrated overlays often appear as three-dimensional objects and move as if part of the external world. Studies conducted in the aviation domain show that integrated overlays can improve situation awareness and reduce the amount of deviation from the optimal path. The purpose of the study was to investigate whether these results apply to HRI tasks, such as navigation with a mobile robot.

Sandor, Aniko↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Exploration System Test-Bed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) Support of Future NASA Deep-Space Missions

The Engineering Directorate at the NASA - Johnson Space Center is outfitting a 20-Foot diameter hypobaric chamber in Building 7 to support future deep-space Environmental Control & Life Support System (ECLSS) research as part of the Human Exploration System Test-bed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) Project. This human-rated chamber is the only NASA facility that has the unique experience, chamber geometry, infrastructure, and support systems capable of conducting this research. The chamber was used to support Gemini, Apollo, and SkyLab Missions. More recently, it was used to conduct 30-, 60-, and 90-day human ECLSS closed-loop testing in the 1990s to support the International Space Station and life support technology development. NASA studies show that both planetary surface and deep-space transit crew habitats will be 3-4 story cylindrical structures driven by human occupancy volumetric needs and launch vehicle constraints. The HESTIA facility offers a 3-story, 20-foot diameter habitat consistent with the studies' recommendations. HESTIA operations follow stringent processes by a certified test team that including human testing. Project management, analysis, design, acquisition, fabrication, assembly and certification of facility build-ups are available to support this research. HESTIA offers close proximity to key stakeholders including astronauts, Human Research Program (who direct space human research for the agency), Mission Operations, Safety & Mission Assurance, and Engineering Directorate. The HESTIA chamber can operate at reduced pressure and elevated oxygen environments including those proposed for deep-space exploration. Data acquisition, power, fluids and other facility resources are available to support a wide range of research. Recently completed HESTIA research consisted of unmanned testing of ECLSS technologies. Eventually, the HESTIA research will include humans for extended durations at reduced pressure and elevated oxygen to demonstrate very high reliability of critical ECLSS and other technologies.

Marmolejo, Jose↗
NASA NTRS2017

Human Mars Mission Overview and Dust Storm Impacts on Site Selection

NASA has begun a process to identify and discuss candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the martian surface. This process is being carried out as a cooperative effort by NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD), responsible for future human mission preparations, and the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), responsible for the on-going Mars Exploration Program of robotic vehicles in orbit and on the surface of Mars. Both of these Directorates have a significant interest in this process, as these candidate locations will be used by NASA as part of a multi-year effort to determine where and how humans could explore Mars. In the near term this process includes: (a) identifying locations that would maximize the potential science return from future human exploration missions, (b) identifying locations with the potential for resources required to support humans, (c) developing concepts and engineering systems needed by future human crews to conduct operations within a candidate location, and (d) identifying key characteristics of the proposed candidate locations that cannot be evaluated using existing data sets, thus helping to define precursor measurements needed in advance of human missions.

Hoffman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar System Exploration Augmented by In-Situ Resource Utilization: Human Planetary Base Issues for Mercury and Saturn

Establishing a lunar presence and creating an industrial capability on the Moon may lead to important new discoveries for all of human kind. Historical studies of lunar exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and industrialization all point to the vast resources on the Moon and its links to future human and robotic exploration. In references 1 through 9, a broad range of technological innovations are described and analyzed. Figures 1 depicts program planning for future human missions throughout the solar system which included lunar launched nuclear rockets, and future human settlements on the Moon. Figures 2 and 3 present the results for human Mercury missions, including LEO departure masses and round trip Mercury lander masses. Using in-situ resources, the missions become less burdensome to the LEO launch infrastructure. In one example using Mercury derived hydrogen, the LEO mass of the human Mercury missions can be reduced from 2,800 MT to 1,140 MT (Ref. 15). Additional analyses of staging options for human Mercury missions will be presented. Figures 4 shows an option for thermal control for long term in-space cryogenic storage and Figure 5 depicts the potentially deleterious elements emanating from Mercury that must be addressed, respectively. Updated analyses based on the visions presented will be presented. While advanced propulsion systems were proposed in these historical studies, further investigation of nuclear options using high power nuclear thermal and nuclear electric propulsion as well as advanced chemical propulsion can significantly enhance these scenarios. Human bases at Mercury may have to be resupplied from resources from regolith and water resources in permanently shadowed craters at its northern pole.

Mercury↗
NASA NTRS2014

Defining Reliability and Robustness from a Human Factors Perspective

A human factors team was tasked with assessing best practices for developing a crewed space vehicle that is both reliable and robust. The team identified two broad dimensions of human factors are relevant to system design. Namely, the attributes of the product, and the processes used to develop the product. The “product” includes hardware, software, documentation, training systems, and procedures throughout all phases of the system life, including construction, testing, operation and maintenance. Three product attributes relevant to robustness are the extent to which task demands are within human capabilities, the capacity of the system to cope with unanticipated human actions, and the ability of the system to make use of unique human capabilities during non-routine situations. The “process” dimension of human factors relates to the activities that start in the early stages of design, and continue throughout the life of the system. There are, of course, no guarantees that a formal consideration of human factors throughout the design process will identify all the relevant human issues. In the absence of such a consideration, however, problems are virtually assured.

Hobbs, Alan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Trusted Communication: Utilizing Speech Communication to Enhance Human-Machine Teaming Success

An area of increasing interest for the next generation of aircraft is autonomy and the integration of increasingly autonomous systems into the national airspace. Such an integration requires humans to work closely with autonomous systems, forming teams. Our hypothesis is that a team composed of both humans and autonomous systems will operate better than either entity alone. We have existing procedures for certifying pilots to operate in the national airspace and are currently working on methods for validating the function of autonomous systems, however we have no method in place for assessing the interaction of these two disparate systems. Communication is one avenue. This paper will examine the use of language as a metric for ascertaining human-machine teaming effectiveness. A proof-of-concept of the application of two communication-based analysis techniques, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), for the prediction of success in human/chatbot teaming was conducted. By running these analyses over data from the 2014 and 2015 Loebner Prize competitions of human/chatbot teaming, numerical scores were obtained that can be associated with scores provided by human judges during the competition. Correlating their LIWC and LSA data with the scores provided by the judges, and using linear regression over this correlation, formulae were obtained that predict the score of human/chatbot interaction. These formulae were tested over the 2013 Loebner Prize transcripts, determining that, though there was strong correlation between predicted and actual scores, the predictive success of this method was not strong. However, with specialized topic spaces and lexica, as well as larger data sets, the predictive power of these metrics will improve. Given the importance of providing metrics for human-machine system team success and given the promise shown by the communication-basedLIWCand LSAmethods, continuing research in this area is necessary. After examining the potential for using communication and spoken language as a metric for the success of human/autonomous system teaming, this paper then examines aspects inherent to communication systems that may contribute to unreliability and reduced trust. Modern natural language processing tools rely on deep learning algorithms to create language rules that produce accurate results, but these rules are uninterpretable. The resulting blackbox system lacks transparency necessary for full validation and complete trust. Additionally, speech-based interfaces pose other difficulties to developing coordinated teamwork between humans and autonomous systems. Human communication is infrequently limited to speech only, instead usually relying on a combination of verbal, gestural, and general body language communication. Reducing an analysis of team effectiveness to a study of spoken language alone is problematic as it leaves these other equally important forms of communication out. This paper will examine these problems and the general deficiencies in speech-based metrics for human-machine teaming.

E L Meszaros↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Systems Integration Relationships Between Deep Space and Deepwater Exploration Challenges

NASA pursuit of human missions Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO) to the moon and eventually Mars will pose many new challenges. These missions are characterized by increased risks to human performance due to stress, fatigue, radiation exposure, and isolation. Fundamental changes in spaceflight operations will be required as well. A very critical part of future missions will be assisting the crew with problem-solving and contingency resolution using next-generation smart spacecraft systems. Human Systems Integration (HSI) must be included as part of the systems engineering process. Gateway1 will serve as part of the proving ground for maturing technology such as autonomous systems and space operations procedures to help meet moon mission goals and prepare humans for missions to Mars. For deep space missions, risk factors affecting humans such as mission duration, distance, and physiological/psychological effects, must be considered. A human is not a simple component but rather a system in a systems-of-systems application-a system influenced by cognitive and biological factors that are difficult to model/analyze. System complexity will demand an integrated approach that requires multiple viewpoints, including the understanding of the astronauts' capabilities and limitations to enhance safety, performance, and satisfaction on the interaction between all system users in a variety of environments to achieve acceptable mission goals and performance. HSI will play a vital role in the development of these future missions. This paper provides a discussion of HSI used at NASA and the critical role human factors engineering will play in the HSI process for future missions along with the challenges. Industries such as oil and gas (O&G) could benefit from the content of this paper to help improve the safety and operations of deepwater/oil and gas exploration activities. NASA engineering and human systems subject-matter expert personnel reviewed challenges reported in space-related environments for long space duration missions and identified similarities with the challenges encountered in deepwater exploration. The researchers noted the space industry's current solutions and proposed a system development view to solve future deepwater exploration challenges using HSI principles. This paper discusses the results of the review.

George Salazar↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration and Evaluation of the Human-Technology Integration Function Allocation Methodology

There is an imminent need for the existing nuclear power plants to reduce their operating and maintenance (O&M) costs to remain economically viable. Digital technology, including automation, provides a significant opportunity for the existing nuclear power plant fleet to transform the way in which work is accomplished, reducing O&M costs, and allowing the fleet to remain economically competitive. One notable opportunity to significantly reduce O&M costs pertains to modifications to the plant equipment and main control room (MCR). Existing instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies in the MCR are highly analog, costly to operate and maintain, and demand a high cognitive and physical workload from plant staff (i.e., operators). Digitalizing the MCR has a range of broad economic benefits, including improved plant performance and reduced manual work. Further, digital I&C systems can fundamentally change the way in which plant staff operate the plant; this is the concept of operation. Human-technology integration is important to ensure that impacts to the concept of operation are done in a way that account for capabilities of people and technology. Human-technology integration employs human factors engineering (HFE) methods and principles to maximize the benefits of digital technology, reducing human error, improving overall decision-making and usability. The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program is applying human-technology integration research to ensure digital technologies are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper documents the demonstration of the human-technology guidance developed by the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program from a first-of-a-kind digital I&C upgrade, specifically addressing function analysis and allocation for a new digital I&C system that included changes in automation levels. The program’s specific approach is included in this work, following lessons learned. This document serves as a resource for industry to follow in applying human-technology integration and HFE to digital modifications, specific to function analysis and allocation. The lessons learned should be considered in the planning and execution of HFE activities that support such digital modifications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2003

A new method to evaluate human-robot system performance

One of the key issues in space exploration is that of deciding what space tasks are best done with humans, with robots, or a suitable combination of each. In general, human and robot skills are complementary. Humans provide as yet unmatched capabilities to perceive, think, and act when faced with anomalies and unforeseen events, but there can be huge potential risks to human safety in getting these benefits. Robots provide complementary skills in being able to work in extremely risky environments, but their ability to perceive, think, and act by themselves is currently not error-free, although these capabilities are continually improving with the emergence of new technologies. Substantial past experience validates these generally qualitative notions. However, there is a need for more rigorously systematic evaluation of human and robot roles, in order to optimize the design and performance of human-robot system architectures using well-defined performance evaluation metrics. This article summarizes a new analytical method to conduct such quantitative evaluations. While the article focuses on evaluating human-robot systems, the method is generally applicable to a much broader class of systems whose performance needs to be evaluated.

Space Flight/instrumentation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Human System Information with the Systems Platform for Aggregating and Relating Capabilities (SPARC)

Within Human Health and Performance, there exists a wealth of human system information that’s used a regular basis in support of NASA human exploration objectives, but the challenge is that all of this information was stored in multiple different locations and organized for specific uses, limiting its effectiveness and straining communication across multiple groups. To address this challenge, our project, the Systems Platform for Aggregating and Relating Capabilities (SPARC) was tasked with developing a new NASA internal web application that aggregates and relates multiple programs’ human system products, such as technical standards, program requirements and verifications, human system risks, research and evidence, and exploration capabilities, into one centralized platform that addresses the needs of human health and performance from multiple different perspectives. Using agile development methodologies, user-experience (UX) driven design principles, data visualization, and a strong emphasis on continuous improvement though consistent stakeholder engagement, the SPARC project released a beta version in less than 4 months, broadly launched version 1.0.0 Agency-wide three months after the beta, and has over 180 users in the first year of development. Our second year of development will see us moving from our initial capabilities to increasingly robust and complex integrations and visualizations, including Directed Acyclical Graphs (DAGs), natural language processing (NLP) for dynamic generation of relationships between the sources of truth, and an expansion into hierarchical levels of system design in support of the human exploration programs.

Data science↗
NASA NTRS2023

Human Systems Integration: Managing Risk in Anesthesia

The practice of anesthesia relies on clinicians’ ability to safely manage increasingly complex equipment. Devices such as ventilators, drug infusion pumps, and physiologic monitors use sophisticated algorithms to deliver care, but most clinicians are only trained to manage automated systems during normal operation. Few if any receive training on how to manage system failures. Although manufacturers are required to consult with human factors engineers as part of the equipment design process, most pieces of equipment are ultimately brought to market without extensive input from clinicians. Systems in the operating room can be as simple as an oxygen tank, or as complex as a multi-institutional healthcare organization. Humans are also a complex system, and play a critical role in the domains of operations, design, fabrication, maintenance, repair, and ultimately, dismantling and closeout. HSI seeks to provide a means for advocating the human side of the system. Human Systems Integration (HSI) is the cross disciplinary process used as part of the Systems Engineering process to reduce risk in systems. HSI professionals consider the human, hardware, and software elements of system design to optimize system performance and improve safety. HSI professionals work in domains of study that include training, management, human factors engineering, safety, and occupational health, among others. This article discusses the role of systems in the practice of anesthesia, and how consideration of the human during all phases of the system life cycle helps manage risks and promote a better patient outcome.

Human Factors↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rancor-HUNTER: Using a Simulator Engine for Realistic Human Performance Modeling of Nuclear Power Operations

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a software system to simulate human performance in support of human reliability analysis (HRA) in nuclear power plants. This paper summarizes recent work to integrate HUNTER with a plant simulator, namely the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Rancor is an offshoot of earlier work at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support plant modernization. The graphical software tools used to mimic digital human-system interface upgrades at INL’s Human Systems Simulation Laboratory were linked to the Rancor Microworld Simulator, an INL-developed simplified plant model. HUNTER becomes a “virtual operator” coupled to the Rancor simulator, thereby allowing a tight coupling between a digital human twin and a digital twin of the plant. Rancor-HUNTER may be run through Monte Carlo iterations across a dynamic range of performance shaping factors, thereby producing distributions of human performance in terms of procedure paths, errors instantiations, and task durations. This paper overviews the various unique features of Rancor-HUNTER and presents an example run of Rancor-HUNTER for a startup scenario.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding collective human movement dynamics during large-scale events using big geosocial data analytics

Conventional approaches for modeling human mobility pattern often focus on human activity and movement dynamics in their regular daily lives and cannot capture changes in human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events. With the rapid advancement of information and communication technologies, many researchers have adopted alternative data sources (e.g., cell phone records, GPS trajectory data) from private data vendors to study human movement dynamics in response to large-scale natural or societal events. Big geosocial data such as georeferenced tweets are publicly available and dynamically evolving as real-world events are happening, making it more likely to capture the real-time sentiments and responses of populations. However, precisely-geolocated geosocial data is scarce and biased toward urban population centers. In this research, we developed a big geosocial data analytical framework for extracting human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events from publicly available georeferenced tweets. The framework includes a two-stage data collection module that collects data in a more targeted fashion in order to mitigate the data scarcity issue of georeferenced tweets; in addition, a variable bandwidth kernel density estimation(VB-KDE) approach was adopted to fuse georeference information at different spatial scales, further augmenting the signals of human movement dynamics contained in georeferenced tweets. To correct for the sampling bias of georeferenced tweets, we adjusted the number of tweets for different spatial units (e.g., county, state) by population. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed analytic framework, we chose an astronomical event that occurred nationwide across the United States, i.e., the 2017 Great American Eclipse, as an example event and studied the human movement dynamics in response to this event. Finally, this analytic framework can easily be applied to other types of large-scale events such as hurricanes or earthquakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗