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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modification of CO2/H2O Selectivity of Polymer Through Graphene Coating for Carbon Capture Materials

A harmful issue that needs attention and solution is the rising carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is at an all time high and has continuously increased since the industrial revolution. It has increased tremendously going from 315 parts per million (ppm) in the 1960s up to 419.3 ppm in 2023 as shown in Figure 1. Moreover, CO2 emissions have increased from 11 billion tons/year in the 1960s to 38.6 billion tons/year in 2023. The increase in CO2 found in our atmosphere has a number of detrimental effects such as increase in global temperatures and an increase in the ocean’s acidity. Human activities are greatly involved in the cause of CO2 emissions. At Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) the Microencapsulated CO2 sorbents (MECS) division has been doing research and investigating formulations for their microcapsules. MECS are core-shell microcapsules consisted of a highly permeable polymer shell and a fluid (sodium carbonate solution) that reacts and absorbs carbon dioxide. An example of the microcapsules are shown in Figure 2. Equation 1 shows the chemical reaction of the fluid (sodium carbonate) contained in the polymer shell that acts as the carbon dioxide sorbent and becomes sodium bicarbonate. The LLNL MECS team is in the process of scaling up their microcapsules for potential applications in “carbon capture from flue gas streams generated by fossil fuel combustion in industrial plants and operations, carbon capture in breweries and soft drink manufacture, carbon capture directly from indoor air to improve its quality”. The microcapsule’s possibility for commercial applications was discovered in 2017.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical controls on the propagation and healing of subcritical fractures

Human activities involving subsurface reservoirs—resource extraction, carbon and nuclear waste storage—alter thermal, mechanical, and chemical steady-state conditions in these systems. Because these systems exist at lithostatic pressures, even minor chemical changes can cause chemically assisted deformation. Therefore, understanding how chemical effects control geomechanical properties is critical to optimizing engineering activities. The grand challenge in predicting the effect of chemical processes on mechanical properties lays in the fact that these phenomena take place at molecular scales, while they manifest all the way to reservoir scales. To address this fundamental challenge, we investigated chemical effects on deformation in model and real systems spanning molecular- to centimeter scales. We used theory, experiment, molecular dynamics simulation, and statistical analysis to (1) identify the effect of simple reactions, such as hydrolysis, on molecular structures in interfacial regions of stressed geomaterials; (2) quantify chemical effects on the bulk mechanical properties, fracture and displacement for granular rocks and single crystals; (3) develop initial understanding of universal scaling for individual displacement events in layered geomaterials; and (4) develop analytic approximations for the single-chain mechanical response utilizing asymptotically correct statistical thermodynamic theory. Taken together, these findings advance the challenging field of chemo-mechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Soil Microbial Sources of Nitrous Acid and their Effect on Carbon-Nitrogen Cycle Interactions

Descriptions of soil emissions of reactive nitrogen (NO y ) in climate models are underdeveloped or non-existent, due to the fact that details of the mechanisms leading to nitrous acid (HONO) and nitrogen di-oxide (NO 2 ) formation in soil are lacking. This represents a major gap in our understanding of a significant land-atmosphere interaction that prevents us from scaling these processes from the laboratory scale to the ecosystem and global scales. There is a critical need to include these mechanisms into climate models since NO y controls the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and the lifetime of greenhouse gases and the rate of secondary aerosol formation that directly and indirectly affect climate. The first objective of this proposal is to conduct laboratory and field measurements of NO y fluxes from diverse soil types and determine the mechanism of biogenic NO y formation. The working hypothesis based on preliminary data is that soil HONO and NO 2 is ultimately derived from ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) that are widespread, but whose abundance varies across ecosystems. In the case of NO 2 , reactive oxygen species derived from iron-containing minerals and heterotrophic bacteria drive NO-to-NO 2 conversion. The approach is to link soil fluxes of HONO and NO 2 to AOA, AOB, and other heterotrophs using a combination of laboratory and field experiments, isotopic analysis, and molecular techniques to address how variability in land surfaces and edaphic properties impact emissions. In addition, we will determine the effect of HONO and NO 2 on nitrogen immobilization and the photo-oxidative capacity of soil. The working hypothesis is that HONO uptake in soil will be a source of nitrosonium and hydroxyl radical that will lead to thermal- and photodegradation of soil organic matter to CO 2 and CO, and the incorporation of N in soil organic matter. We will use surface-sensitive mass spectrometry techniques and gas phase detection to study N-immobilization in soil and subsequent enhancements in reactivity that lead to decomposition of organic matter. The results will be used to reduce the uncertainty in projections from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) stemming from inaccurate representations of soil NO y emissions. The proposed research is significant because, in addition to demonstrating new mechanisms of NO y formation and loss, it will be a crucial first step towards modeling the land-atmosphere exchange of HONO and NO 2 in the CESM. Improved model treatment of land-air exchange of NO y is key for understanding feedbacks between human activity and climate, and addressing societal concerns about the fate of N and C emitted to the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗
DOE OSTI2021

Editorial: Multi-Omics Technologies for Optimizing Synthetic Biomanufacturing

Industrial manufacturing endures as an essential human activity yielding a variety of useful products; it plays a significant role in the global economy with huge impacts in everyday life. However, the manufacturing process requires consumption of various raw materials (especially petroleum derivatives), generates a variety of harmful waste products, causes pollution, and is energetically inefficient. Biological manufacturing from sustainable, affordable, and scalable feedstocks potentially enables the displacement of the entire portfolio of currently available products produced by industrial processes, enabling the manufacturing of renewable and eco-friendly products (Clomburg et al., 2017). Thus, successful development of a robust biomanufacturing strategy and technology platform, based on the latest advances in synthetic biology and chemical catalysis, will decrease both the cost and production time compared with previous manufacturing processes. Development of biomanufacturing processes using a synthetic biology platform requires the multidisciplinary efforts of science and engineering fields including molecular biology, microbiology, genetic engineering, informatics, metabolic modeling and chemical or process engineering (El Karoui et al., 2019).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improvements in the utilization of calcium carbonate in promoting sustainability and environmental health

Calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) is an incredibly abundant mineral on Earth, with over 90% of it being found in the lithosphere. To address the CO 2 crisis and combat ocean acidification, it is essential to produce more CaCO 3 using various synthetic methods. Additionally, this approach can serve as a substitute for energy-intensive processes like cement production. By doing so, we have the potential to not only reverse the damage caused by climate change but also protect biological ecosystems and the overall environment. The key lies in maximizing the utilization of CaCO 3 in various human activities, paving the way for a more sustainable future for our planet.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Editorial: Hydrology, ecology, and nutrient biogeochemistry at the terrestrial-aquatic interface

Terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAI) play important roles in mediating the exchange of water and chemicals between land, surface and subsurface water systems, which is tightly coupled with biogeochemical transformations that influence water quality and ecosystem health (Harvey and Gooseff, 2015; Harvey et al., 2019). Understanding and predicting the interactions between the hydrologic, ecologic, and biogeochemical processes at those interfaces is crucial for the sustainable management of water resources and promotion of healthy ecosystems under different environmental stresses and disturbances, including climate change, human activities, and more frequent occurrence of extreme events. Both process-based and data-driven approaches have emerged to address critical challenges at TAIs as integral parts of the Earth system (e.g., Ward and Packman, 2019; Chen et al., 2021; Dwivedi et al., 2022). In this Research Topic, we sought research that advances the understanding of coupled hydrologic, ecologic, and biogeochemical processes along various TAIs from the summit to sea, e.g., river corridors and coastal TAI systems. We invited observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven research that aims to understand hydro-biogeochemical processes such as the redox dynamics and biogeochemical transformations of carbon, nutrients, and metals occurring at the TAIs and address their heterogeneity and scaling challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetoimpedance Biosensors and Real-Time Healthcare Monitors: Progress, Opportunities, and Challenges

A small DC magnetic field can induce an enormous response in the impedance of a soft magnetic conductor in various forms of wire, ribbon, and thin film. Also known as the giant magnetoimpedance (GMI) effect, this phenomenon forms the basis for the development of high-performance magnetic biosensors with magnetic field sensitivity down to the picoTesla regime at room temperature. Over the past decade, some state-of-the-art prototypes have become available for trial tests due to continuous efforts to improve the sensitivity of GMI biosensors for the ultrasensitive detection of biological entities and biomagnetic field detection of human activities through the use of magnetic nanoparticles as biomarkers. In this review, we highlight recent advances in the development of GMI biosensors and review medical devices for applications in biomedical diagnostics and healthcare monitoring, including real-time monitoring of respiratory motion in COVID-19 patients at various stages. We also discuss exciting research opportunities and existing challenges that will stimulate further study into ultrasensitive magnetic biosensors and healthcare monitors based on the GMI effect.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Native Microalgae-Bacteria Consortia: A Sustainable Approach for Effective Urban Wastewater Bioremediation and Disinfection

Urban wastewater is a significant by-product of human activities. Conventional urban wastewater treatment plants have limitations in their treatment, mainly concerning the low removal efficiency of conventional and emerging contaminants. Discharged wastewater also contains harmful microorganisms, posing risks to public health, especially by spreading antibiotic-resistant bacteria and genes. Therefore, this study assesses the potential of a native microalgae-bacteria system (MBS) for urban wastewater bioremediation and disinfection, targeting NH4+-N and PO43−-P removal, coliform reduction, and antibiotic resistance gene mitigation. The MBS showed promising results, including a high specific growth rate (0.651 ± 0.155 d−1) and a significant average removal rate of NH4+-N and PO43−-P (9.05 ± 1.24 mg L−1 d−1 and 0.79 ± 0.06 mg L−1 d−1, respectively). Microalgae-induced pH increase rapidly reduces coliforms (r > 0.9), including Escherichia coli, within 3 to 6 days. Notably, the prevalence of intI1 and the antibiotic resistance genes sul1 and blaTEM are significantly diminished, presenting the MBS as a sustainable approach for tertiary wastewater treatment to combat eutrophication and reduce waterborne disease risks and antibiotic resistance spread.

Sousa, Joana F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Progress on Surface Water Quality Models Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

Surface waterbodies are heavily exposed to pollutants caused by natural disasters and human activities. Empowering sensor technologies in water quality monitoring, sufficient measurements have become available to develop machine learning (ML) models. Numerous ML models have quickly been adopted to predict water quality indicators in various surface waterbodies. This paper reviews 78 recent articles from 2022 to October 2024, categorizing water quality models utilizing ML into three groups: Point-to-Point (P2P), which estimates the current target value based on other measurements at the same time point; Sequence-to-Point (S2P), which utilizes previous time series data to predict the target value at one time point ahead; and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S), which uses previous time series data to forecast sequential target values in the future. The ML models used in each group are classified and compared according to water quality indicators, data availability, and model performance. Widely used strategies for improving performance, including feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and transfer learning, are recognized and described to enhance model effectiveness. The interpretability limitations of ML applications are discussed. This review provides a perspective on emerging ML for surface water quality models.

machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol transport pathways and source attribution in China during the COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract. Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, human activities and industrial productions were strictly restricted during January–March 2020 in China. Despite the fact that anthropogenic aerosol emissions largely decreased, haze events still occurred. Characterization of aerosol transport pathways and attribution of aerosol sources from specific regions are beneficial to air quality and pandemic control strategies. This study establishes source–receptor relationships in various regions covering all of China during the COVID-19 outbreak based on the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). Our analysis shows that PM2.5 burden over the North China Plain between 30 January and 19 February is mostly contributed by local emissions (40 %–66 %). For other regions in China, PM2.5 burden is largely contributed from nonlocal sources. During the most polluted days of the COVID-19 outbreak, local emissions within the North China Plain and eastern China contributed 66 % and 87 % to the increase in surface PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. This is associated with the anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure at the location of the climatological East Asia trough and the consequently weakened winds in the lower troposphere, leading to the local aerosol accumulation. The emissions outside China, especially those from South Asia and Southeast Asia, contribute over 50 % to the increase in PM2.5 concentration in southwestern China through transboundary transport during the most polluted day. As the reduction in emissions in the near future is desirable, aerosols from long-range transport and unfavorable meteorological conditions are increasingly important to regional air quality and need to be taken into account in clean-air plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗