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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Dissolution Rates of Allophane with Variable Fe Contents: Implications for Aqueous Alteration and the Preservation of X-ray Amorphous Materials on Mars

Recent measurements from Mars document X-ray amorphous/nano-crystalline materials in multiple locations across the planet. However, despite their prevalence, little is known about these materials or what their presence implies for the history of Mars. The X-ray amorphous component of the martian soil in Gale crater has an X-ray diffraction pattern that can be partially fit with allophane (approximately Al2O3•(SiO2)1.3-2•(H2O)2.5-3), and the low-temperature water release data are consistent with allophane. The chemical data from Gale crater suggest that other silicate materials similar to allophane, such as Fe-substituted allophane (approximately (Fe2O3)0.01-0.5(Al2O3)0.5-0.99•(SiO2)2•3H2O), may also be present. In order to investigate the properties of these potential poorly crystalline components of the martian soil, Fe-free allophane (Fe:Al = 0), Fe-poor allophane (Fe:Al = 1:99), and Fe-rich allophane (Fe:Al = 1:1) were synthesized and then characterized using electron microscopy and Mars-relevant techniques, including infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and evolved gas analysis. Dissolution experiments were performed at acidic (initial pH values pH0 = 3.01, pH0 = 5.04), near-neutral (pH0 = 6.99), and alkaline (pH0 = 10.4) conditions in order to determine dissolution kinetics and alteration phases for these poorly crystalline materials. Dissolution rates (rdiss), based on the rate of Si release into solution, show that these poorly crystalline materials dissolve approximately an order of magnitude faster than crystalline phases with similar compositions at all pH conditions. For Fe-free allophane, logrdiss = -10.65 – 0.15 × pH; for Fe-poor allophane, logrdiss = -10.35 – 0.22 × pH; and for Fe-rich allophane, logrdiss = -11.46 – 0.042 × pH at 25°C, where rdiss has the units of mol m-2 s-1. The formation of incipient phyllosilicate-like phases was detected in Fe-free and Fe-rich allophane reacted in aqueous solutions with pH0 = 10.4 (steady-state pH ≈ 8). Mars-analog instrument analyses demonstrate that Fe-free allophane, Fe-poor allophane, and Fe-rich allophane are appropriate analogs for silicate phases in the martian amorphous soil component. Therefore, similar materials on Mars must have had limited interaction with liquid water since their formation. Combined with chemical changes expected from weathering, such as phyllosilicate formation, the rapid alteration of these poorly crystalline materials may be a useful tool for evaluating the extent of aqueous alteration in returned samples of martian soils.

S J Ralston↗
DOE OSTI2025

Age at release affects developmental physiology and sex-specific phenotypic diversity of hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Most steelhead trout hatcheries increase growth rate during rearing to produce and release yearling smolts for harvest augmentation, but natural steelhead exhibit variable age of smoltification, so this common rearing practice may not be ideal for programs focused on recovering imperiled wild stocks; therefore, it is important to investigate and compare alternative hatchery rearing methods that promote life history diversity. Over six consecutive years, the Winthrop National Fish Hatchery on the Methow River, WA reared and released paired groups of age-1 (S1) and age-2 (S2) steelhead smolts. To understand how the two rearing methods affected developmental ontogeny and life-history, fish were sampled prior to hatchery release for factors associated with smoltification (size, gill Na+/K+ ATPase activity, and a qualitative smolt phenotype) and sexual maturation (sex, pituitary and testis mRNA transcripts, gonadosomatic index, and plasma 11-ketotestosterone). Our objectives were to quantify levels of smoltification and male maturation during hatchery rearing, combine metrics to estimate residualism (failure to migrate upon release), and compare the treatments by sex. Overall, S2 rearing produced 7.8% more smolts and 44-fold (4.4 vs. 0.1%) more precociously mature males than S1 rearing. Conversely, S1 rearing produced 31.6% more residuals than S2 rearing. While the proportion of total male residuals was comparable between treatments, the S1 treatment produced approximately five-fold more female residuals (20.6 vs. 4.2%). Because residuals contribute minimally to adult returns and the number of returning adult females is critical to the success of salmonid supplementation efforts, developing rearing techniques that maximize migration in females is a management priority. Physiological assessments are useful for characterizing and quantifying the effects and risks of different hatchery rearing regimes on steelhead life-history, in addition to providing sex-specific guidance to inform and optimize conservation management goals in supplementation programs.

Middleton, Mollie A. (ORCID:0009000905577865)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

LANL MPCL Measurement System Analysis: AMPTEC 630ES Igniter Tester / Ohmmeter

This comprehensive analysis aimed to evaluate the measurement capability of the AMPTEC 630ES Explosive Safety Igniter Tester, a critical tool for organizations engaged in the measurement of High Explosive components and related Electro-Explosive devices. With a history of notable calibration issues involving specific model numbers, the Metrology Program and Calibration Laboratory (MPCL) initiated an extensive Measurement System Analysis. The analysis's primary focus was to thoroughly quantify the various sources of measurement variability intrinsic to the calibration process. It centered on two pivotal aspects: repeatability (the variation observed when the same operator uses the same instrument) and reproducibility (the variation seen when different operators perform measurements). A secondary objective was to determine whether equipment usage and age had any impact on the instrument's performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1993

Experimental and analytical study of cryogenic propellant boiloff to develop and verify alternate pressurization concepts for Space Shuttle external tank using a scaled down tank

Self pressurization by propellant boiloff is experimentally studied as an alternate pressurization concept for the Space Shuttle external tank (ET). The experimental setup used in the study is an open flow system which is composed of a variable area test tank and a recovery tank. The vacuum jacketed test tank is geometrically similar to the external LOx tank for the Space Shuttle. It is equipped with instrumentation to measure the temperature and pressure histories within the liquid and vapor, and viewports to accommodate visual observations and Laser-Doppler Anemometry measurements of fluid velocities. A set of experiments were conducted using liquid Nitrogen to determine the temperature stratification in the liquid and vapor, and pressure histories of the vapor during sudden and continuous depressurization for various different boundary and initial conditions. The study also includes the development and calibration of a computer model to simulate the experiments. This model is a one-dimensional, multi-node type which assumes the liquid and the vapor to be under non-equilibrium conditions during the depressurization. It has been tested for a limited number of cases. The preliminary results indicate that the accuracy of the simulations is determined by the accuracy of the heat transfer coefficients for the vapor and the liquid at the interface which are taken to be the calibration parameters in the present model.

Akyuzlu, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗
NASA NTRS2022

Helheim Glacier Ice Velocity Variability Responds to Runoff and Terminus Position, but at Different Timescales

The Greenland Ice Sheet discharges ice to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers. Recent acceleration of Greenland outlet glaciers has been linked to both oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Here, we leverage temporally dense observations, regional climate model output, and newly developed time series analysis tools to assess the most important forcings causing ice flow variability at one of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers, Helheim Glacier, from 2009 to 2017. We find that ice speed correlates most strongly with catchment-integrated runoff at seasonal to interannual scales, while multi-annual flow variability correlates most strongly with multi-annual terminus variability. The disparate time scales and the influence of subglacial topography on Helheim Glacier’s dynamics highlight different regimes that can inform modeling and forecasting of its future. Notably, our results suggest that the recent terminus history observed at Helheim is a response to, rather than the cause of, upstream changes.

Cryospheric science↗
NASA NTRS2017

Feldspar Variability in Northwest Africa 7034

The martian meteorite Northwest Africa 7034 (and pairings) is a breccia that provides important information about the rocks and processes of the martian crust (e.g., 1-3). Additional information can be gleaned from the components of the breccia. These components, specifically those designated as clasts, record the history of their parent rock (i.e., the rock that has been physically broken down to produce the clasts). In order to study these parent rocks, we must first determine which clasts within the breccia are de-rived from the same parent. Previous studies have be-gun this process (e.g., 4), but the search for genetic linkages between clasts has not integrated clasts with different grain sizes. We begin to take this approach here, incorporating igneous-textured clasts with both fine and coarse mineral grains. In NWA 7034, almost all materials (clasts and breccia matrix) are composed of the same mineral assemblages (feldspar, pyroxene, Fe-Ti oxides, apatite) with largely the same mineral compositions [1, 4-6]. Bulk breccia Sm-Nd systematics define a single isochron [7]. These observations are consistent with a majority of the components within NWA 7034 originating from the same geochemical source and crystallizing at roughly the same time.

Santos, A. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Abstract. Climate model output emulation has long been attempted to support impact research, mainly to fill in gaps in the scenario space. Given the computational cost of running coupled earth system models (ESMs), which are usually the domain of supercomputers and require on the order of days to weeks to complete a century-long simulation, only a handful of different scenarios are usually chosen to externally force ESM simulations. An effective emulator, able to run on standard computers in times of the order of minutes rather than days could therefore be used to derive climate information under scenarios that were not run by ESMs. Lately, the necessity of accounting for internal variability has also made the availability of initial-condition ensembles, under a specific scenario, important, further increasing the computational demand. At least so far, emulators have been limited to simplified ESM-like output, either seasonal, annual, or decadal averages of basic quantities, like temperature and precipitation, often emulated independently of one another. With this work, we propose a more comprehensive solution to ESM output emulation. Our emulator, STITCHES, uses existing archives of earth system models' (ESMs) scenario experiments to construct ESM-like output under new scenarios or enrich existing initial-condition ensembles, which is what other emulators also aim to do. Importantly, however, STITCHES' output has the same characteristics of the ESM output it sets out to emulate: multivariate, spatially resolved, and high frequency, representing both the forced component and the internal variability around it. STITCHES extends the idea of time sampling – according to which climate outcomes are stratified by the global warming level at which they manifest themselves, irrespective of the scenario and time at which they occur – to the construction of a continuous history of ESM-like output over the whole 21st century, consistent with a 21st-century trajectory of global surface air temperature (GSAT) derived from the scenario that has been chosen as the target of the emulation. STITCHES does so by first splitting the target GSAT trajectory into decade-long windows, then matching each window in turn to a decade-long window within an existing model simulation from the available scenario runs according to its proximity to the target in absolute size of the temperature anomaly and its rate of change. A look-up table is therefore created of a sequence of existing experiment–time-window combinations that, when stitched together, create a GSAT trajectory “similar” to the target. Importantly, we can then stitch together much more than GSAT from these windows, i.e., any output that the ESM has saved for these existing experiment–time-window combinations, at any frequency and spatial scale available in its archive. We show that the stitching does not introduce artifacts in the great majority of cases (we look at temperature and precipitation at monthly frequency and on the native grid of the ESM and at an index of ENSO activity, the Southern Oscillation Index). This is true even if the criteria for the identification of the decades to be stitched together are chosen to work for a smoothed time series of annual GSAT, a result we expect given the larger amount of noise affecting most other variables at finer spatial scales and higher frequencies, which therefore are more “forgiving” of the stitching. We successfully test the method's performance over many ESMs and scenarios. Only a few exceptions surface, but these less-than-optimal outcomes are always associated with a scarcity of the archived simulations from which we can gather the decade-long windows that form the building blocks of the emulated time series. In the great majority of cases, STITCHES' performance is satisfactory according to metrics that reward consistency in trends, interannual and inter-ensemble variance, and autocorrelation structure of the time series stitched together. The method therefore can be used to create ESM-like output according to new scenarios, on the basis of a trajectory of GSAT produced according to that scenario, which could be easily obtained by a simple climate model. It can also be used to increase the size of existing initial-condition ensembles. There are aspects of our emulator that will immediately disqualify it for specific applications, like when climate information is needed whose characteristics result from accumulated quantities over windows of times longer than those used as pieces by STITCHES, droughts longer than a decade for example. But for many applications, we argue that a stitched product can satisfy the climate information needs of impact researchers. STITCHES cannot emulate ESM output from scenarios that result in GSAT trajectories outside of the envelope available in the archive, nor can it emulate trajectories with shapes different from existing ones (overshoots with negative derivative, for example). Therefore, the size and characteristics of the available archives of ESM output are the principal limitations for STITCHES' deployment. Thus, we argue for the possibility of designing scenario experiments within, for example, the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project according to new principles, relieved of the need to produce a number of similar trajectories that vary only in radiative forcing strength but more strategically covering the space of temperature anomalies and rates of change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

A fully associative, nonisothermal, nonlinear kinematic, unified viscoplastic model for titanium alloys

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential base multiaxial, nonisothermal unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable (that is, associated with dislocation substructure) and an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of nonlinear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This nonlinear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated), greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths, and in the case of nonisothermal histories, introduces an instantaneous thermal softening mechanism proportional to the rate of change in temperature. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. The specific model proposed is characterized for a representative titanium alloy commonly used as the matrix material in SiC fiber reinforced composites, i.e., TIMETAL 21S. Verification of the proposed model is shown using 'specialized' non-standard isothermal and thermomechanical deformation tests.

Arnold, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Variations in the Fe mineralogy of bright Martian soil

Bright regions on Mars are interpreted as 'soil' derived by chemical alteration of crustal rocks, whose main pigmentary component is ferric oxide or oxyhydroxide. The mineralogy and mineralogic variability of ferric iron are important evidence for the evolution of Martian soil: mineralogy of ferric phases is sensitive to chemical conditions in their genetic environments, and the spatial distributions of different ferric phases would record a history of both chemical environments and physical mixing. Reflectance spectroscopic studies provide several types of evidence that discriminate possible pigmentary phases, including the position of a crystal field absorption near 0.9 microns and position and strengths of absorptions in the UV-visible wavelength region. Recent telescopic spectra and laboratory measurements of Mars soil analogs suggest that spectral features of bright soil can be explained based on a single pigmentary phase, hematite (alpha-Fe2O3), occurring in both 'nanophase' and more crystalline forms. Here we report on a systematic investigation of Martian bright regions using ISM imaging spectrometer data, in which we examined spatial variations in the position and shape of the approximately 0.9 microns absorption. We found both local and regional heterogeneities that indicate differences in Fe mineralogy. These results demonstrate that bright soils do not represent a single lithology that has been homogenized by eolian mixing, and suggest that weathering of soils in different geologic settings has followed different physical and chemical pathways.

Murchie, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Structural Certification of Human-Rated Inflatable Space Structures

This paper details the results of an initial study to develop a certification plan for human-rated inflatable space structures, including guidelines for qualification testing. Habitable softgoods inflatables are multi-layered shell structures that use high-strength webbing, cordage and broadcloth fabric to carry the skin loads of a variety of volumetric shapes and structural architectures. The primary objectives of this study are to define the key parameters that affect these structures and propose a statistically robust approach to defining safety and knockdown factors based on test and analysis. Current NASA standards for habitable inflatable space structures use a factor of safety of 4, which was inherited from airship design criteria. An updated approach to defining a design factor, taking into account material strength variability, load variability in the article, number of test samples, and damage and degradation effects is specified. Accurate analytical modeling of these structures is hindered by the difficulty of obtaining accurate and consistent material data due to load-history- dependent, nonlinear load versus strain behavior. A building block approach to certification is detailed that uses stochastic modeling and statistical test design and analysis to address the unique challenges these high-strength softgoods structures present. Human-rated inflatable modules are a transformative capability for launching much larger habitable volumes into space than is possible with rigid shell structures. This research aims to provide the framework for certifying these structures for future human space exploration missions.

Jones, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗