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At least 361 records · Page 20

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cloud-based implementation of white-box model predictive control for a GEOTABS office building: A field test demonstration

Model predictive control (MPC) has been proven in simulations and pilot case studies to be a superior control strategy for large buildings. MPC can utilize the weather and occupancy schedule forecasts, together with the system model, to predict the future thermal behavior of the building and minimize the overall energy use and maximize thermal comfort. However, these advantages come with the cost of increased modeling effort, computational demands, communication infrastructure, and commissioning efforts. Thus a typical approach is to, often rapidly, simplify the building modeling and MPC optimization problem while paying a price of not reaching the full performance potential. It has been shown that by employing accurate physics-based models, MPC performance can be notably increased closer to its theoretical performance bound. However, implementation of such high-fidelity MPC in real buildings remains a challenge, resulting in a lack of successful field test studies. This work presents the methodology and field test demonstration of a computationally efficient implementation of the white-box MPC in an office building in Belgium. The detailed model of the building is based on first-principle physical equations. The deployment and supervision of MPC operation in a practical setting are supported by an automated cloud-based communication infrastructure. The motivating factor behind the cloud-based architecture is its compatibility with a commercially appealing control as a service concept. The building is equipped with a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and thermally activated building structures (TABS), where the combination of both is also known as GEOTABS. From a control perspective, GEOTABS buildings are particularly challenging systems due to large scale, complex heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system, and slow dynamics with time delays. On the other hand, there is an increased potential for energy savings due to the high thermal mass, which acts as thermal storage. The MPC operation is demonstrated during the challenging transient seasons (switching between heating and cooling), and its performance is compared to a traditional rule-based controller (RBC). We provide a proof of concept of real MPC operation for the most difficult seasons with notable GSHP energy use savings equal to 53.5% and thermal comfort improvement by 36.9%. Other MPC applications found in the literature describe tests for only cooling or only heating, and up to now only for a black-box or a grey-box approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High acoustic velocity x -cut lithium niobate sub-terahertz electromechanics

Micromechanical resonators operating above 100 GHz are favorable candidates for quantum physics studies due to their stronger ability to withstand thermal fluctuations, allowing them to remain in the quantum ground state even at kelvin temperatures. Furthermore, electromechanical resonators at sub-terahertz frequencies enable high-speed data transfer in modern communication technologies, making them attractive for communication industries. Recently, sub-terahertz electromechanics has been demonstrated on z-cut thin-film lithium niobate. Yet, the x-cut thin-film lithium niobate is more advantageous for scaling above 100 GHz due to its faster acoustic velocity. Here, we report sub-terahertz electromechanics on x-cut thin-film lithium niobate utilizing the thickness-longitudinal mode. In addition, we study the orientation dependence of these mechanical resonators due to the anisotropy of lithium niobate. We find that devices with a cross section close to the xy plane can be more efficiently excited, in contrast to those near the xz plane. This difference stems from the orientation-dependent nature of the e12 piezoelectric coupling element of the x-cut lithium niobate film. This investigation could assist in optimizing resonator designs by choosing the crystallographic direction that offers the best performance for specific functionalities.

Physics↗

Detection of long-range entanglement in gapped quantum spin liquids by local measurements

Topological order, reflected in long-range patterns of entanglement, is quantified by the topological entanglement entropy γ. We show that for gapped quantum spin liquids it is possible to extract γ using two-spin local correlators. We demonstrate our method for the gapped Z 2 Kitaev spin liquid on a honeycomb lattice with anisotropic interactions. We show that the γ = ln⁡2 for Z 2 topological order can be simply extracted from local two-spin correlators across two different bonds that involve only Majorana fermions, with an accuracy comparable to or higher than the Kitaev-Preskill construction. This implies that even though the ground state can be factorized into the product of Majorana and gauge sectors, the different superselection sectors of Z 2 gauge theory determined by global Wilson loop operators can be reflected locally in the Majorana sector.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effects of cosine tapering window on quantum phase estimation

Here, we provide a modification to the quantum phase estimation algorithm (QPEA) [Abrams and Lloyd, Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 5162 (1999); Cleve et al., Proc. R. Soc. A 454, 339 (1998); Nielsen and Chuang, Quantum computation and quantum information, 2002.] inspired by classical windowing methods for spectral density estimation. From this modification we obtain an upper bound in the cost that implies a cubic improvement with respect to the algorithm's error rate. Numerical evaluation of the costs also demonstrates an improvement. Moreover, with similar techniques, we detail an iterative projective measurement method for ground state preparation that gives an exponential improvement over previous bounds using QPEA. Numerical tests that confirm the expected scaling behavior are also obtained. For these numerical tests we have used a lattice Thirring model as testing ground. Using well-known perturbation theory results, we also show how to more appropriately estimate the cost scaling with respect to state error instead of evolution operator error.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

AviSense: A Real-time System for Detection, Classification, and Analysis of Aviation Signals

Wireless systems are an integral part of aviation. Apart from their apparent use in air-to-ground communication, wireless systems play a crucial role in avionic functions including navigation and landing. An interference-free wireless environment is therefore critical for the uninterrupted operation and safety of an aircraft. Hence, there is an urgency for airport facilities to acquire the capability to continuously monitor aviation frequency bands for real-time detection of interference and anomalies. To meet this critical need, we design and build AviSense, an SDR-based real-time, versatile system for monitoring aviation bands. AviSense detects and characterizes signal activities to enable practical and effective anomaly detection. We identify and tackle the challenges posed by a diverse set of critical aviation bands and technologies. We evaluate our methodology with real-world aviation signal measurements and two custom datasets of anomalous signals. We find that our signal classification capability achieves a true positive rate of ~99%, with few exceptions, and a false positive rate of less than 4%. We also demonstrate that AviSense can effectively distinguish between different types of anomalies. We build and evaluate a prototype implementation of AviSense that supports distributed monitoring.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Air classification of forest residue for tissue and ash separation efficiency

The goal of this Case Study was to evaluate the performance of air classification of logging residues toward meeting conversion CMAs for carbon and ash contents, as compared to the static status quo Base Case system in which the residues are first dried and then ground in a hammer mill with a 6 mm screen and fines < 1.18 mm are removed. Also considered were moisture and ash impacts on throughput and Overall Operating Effectiveness (OOE), as well as delivered feedstock cost and minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Laboratory data on the impacts of fan speed and moisture content on the separation efficiency of soil ash, needles and bark from white wood were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2. Average throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from the Bioenergy Feedstock National User Facility (BFNUF) for the same air classifier. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the Base Case status quo system utilizes drying prior to grinding, we modeled the Case Study with drying prior to air classification and subsequent grinding of the separated white wood to isolate the individual quality and cost impacts of air classification relative to the Base Case system. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that air classification improves the quality of the final material, but increases the production cost, especially when lights are disposed; this becomes a tradeoff between increased conversion yield and the extra cost. Removing material should be done as early in the process as possible. Each operation that occurs prior to removing the material increases the cost of the disposed material and leads to wasted energy expenditures. As processes are included or modified, the impact on monetary and energy cost should be included in the decision process. Identifying alternative uses and the associated value for material that is separated from the feedstock stream will have a significant impact on the delivered cost of the material. Although there was an increase in production cost by adding air classification, there was a resulting benefit to the MFSP when meeting or exceeding all of the conversion CMAs; this was an important finding that should be explored further with FCIC Subtask 8.3 and potentially FCIC Task 6.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Solid Particles as Heat Transfer Fluid-Use in CSP Plants (CRADA Final Report)

NREL assisted the BRIDGE project led by the University of Colorado (CU), Boulder, on developing granular flow and heat transfer simulation tool to serve for an enclosed particle-receiver design. NREL will provide the particle receiver design configuration and operating condition to assist the model setup and may provide certain testing results for model verifications. NREL will attend project reviewing meeting and provide application back-ground including concentrating solar energy technology to collaborate with CU researchers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Image Collection Simulation Using High-Resolution Atmospheric Modeling

A new method is described for simulating the passive remote sensing image collection of ground targets that includes effects from atmospheric physics and dynamics at fine spatial and temporal scales. The innovation in this research is the process of combining a high-resolution weather model with image collection simulation to attempt to account for heterogeneous and high-resolution atmospheric effects on image products. The atmosphere was modeled on a 3D voxel grid by a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) driven by forcing data constrained by local ground-based and air-based observations. The spatial scale of the atmospheric model (10–100 m) came closer than conventional weather forecast scales (10–100 km) to approaching the scale of typical commercial multispectral imagery (2 m). This approach was demonstrated through a ground truth experiment conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. In this experiment, calibrated targets (colored spectral tarps) were placed on the ground, and the scene was imaged with WorldView-3 multispectral imagery at a resolution enabling the tarps to be visible in at least 9–12 image pixels. The image collection was simulated with Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) software, using the 3D atmosphere from the LES model to generate a high-resolution cloud mask. The high-resolution atmospheric model-predicted cloud coverage was usually within 23% of the measured cloud cover. The simulated image products were comparable to the WorldView-3 satellite imagery in terms of the variations of cloud distributions and spectral properties of the ground targets in clear-sky regions, suggesting the potential utility of the proposed modeling framework in improving simulation capabilities, as well as testing and improving the operation of image collection processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

kazr2cfrpr (a1)

The Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) remotely probes the extent and composition of clouds at millimeter wavelengths. The KAZR is a zenith-pointing Doppler radar that operates at a frequency of approximately 35 GHz. The main purpose of this radar is to determine the first three Doppler moments (reflectivity, vertical velocity, and spectral width) at a range resolution of approximately 30 meters from near-ground to nearly 20 kilometers in altitude. The KAZR replaces the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar (MMCR) and uses a new digital receiver that provides higher spatial and temporal resolution than the MMCR. In addition, spectral artifacts in the data are significantly reduced in the KAZR, allowing researchers to study cloud dynamics much more closely than with the MMCR. KAZR data from the 2018–2019 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign in Argentina are now available as b1-level products. Building on the original CACTI operational data, the b1-level products feature improved data quality resulting from extensive analyses and corrections. The data are cross-calibrated to a common point, datastreams are corrected for operational issues that occurred during the campaign, and several data quality masks and basic derived products are incorporated. For more information, read the CACTI radar b1-level processing report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

kazr2cfrge (a1)

The Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) remotely probes the extent and composition of clouds at millimeter wavelengths. The KAZR is a zenith-pointing Doppler radar that operates at a frequency of approximately 35 GHz. The main purpose of this radar is to determine the first three Doppler moments (reflectivity, vertical velocity, and spectral width) at a range resolution of approximately 30 meters from near-ground to nearly 20 kilometers in altitude. The KAZR replaces the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar (MMCR) and uses a new digital receiver that provides higher spatial and temporal resolution than the MMCR. In addition, spectral artifacts in the data are significantly reduced in the KAZR, allowing researchers to study cloud dynamics much more closely than with the MMCR. KAZR data from the 2018–2019 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign in Argentina are now available as b1-level products. Building on the original CACTI operational data, the b1-level products feature improved data quality resulting from extensive analyses and corrections. The data are cross-calibrated to a common point, datastreams are corrected for operational issues that occurred during the campaign, and several data quality masks and basic derived products are incorporated. For more information, read the CACTI radar b1-level processing report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

kazr2cfrmd (a1)

The Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) remotely probes the extent and composition of clouds at millimeter wavelengths. The KAZR is a zenith-pointing Doppler radar that operates at a frequency of approximately 35 GHz. The main purpose of this radar is to determine the first three Doppler moments (reflectivity, vertical velocity, and spectral width) at a range resolution of approximately 30 meters from near-ground to nearly 20 kilometers in altitude. The KAZR replaces the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar (MMCR) and uses a new digital receiver that provides higher spatial and temporal resolution than the MMCR. In addition, spectral artifacts in the data are significantly reduced in the KAZR, allowing researchers to study cloud dynamics much more closely than with the MMCR. KAZR data from the 2018–2019 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign in Argentina are now available as b1-level products. Building on the original CACTI operational data, the b1-level products feature improved data quality resulting from extensive analyses and corrections. The data are cross-calibrated to a common point, datastreams are corrected for operational issues that occurred during the campaign, and several data quality masks and basic derived products are incorporated. For more information, read the CACTI radar b1-level processing report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through September 30, 2020, with a Review of the Period of Record Radionuclide Analyses

The DOE Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) identified the Project 57 contaminated area as Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 415, Project 57 No. 1 Plutonium Dispersion Site, which consisted of one Corrective Action Site (CAS): NAFR-23- 02, Pu Contaminated Soil (U.S. DOE, 2014). The CAS included several Project 57 operational facilities in addition to the plutonium-contaminated soil. With approval of the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, the DOE closed the Project 57 surface soil contamination site in October 2020. Closure was accomplished by installing a clean soil cap constructed over ground zero and the surrounding areas of the CA that may be entrained with wind-transported soil particles. After completion of the ground zero cap in October 2020, DRI discontinued monitoring of meteorological and associated environmental conditions at the Project 57 site as directed by DOE EM NV. Navarro dismantled air monitoring stations P57-3 and P57-4 and removed the equipment on October 20, 2020. This report presents the meteorological and dust observations and radiological analyses accomplished during the approximately 10 months when the air monitoring data collection equipment was operational during CY2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cross Validation of the Network of Ground-Based Radar with GPM during the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) Field Campaign

The cross-validation of radars in a network is important in making consistent retrievals across the domain and assuring the product quality. During the RELAMPAGO field campaign, two C-band radars, namely the Colorado State University C-band Hydrological Instrument for Volumetric Observations ( CSU-CHIVO) and the C-band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR-2), were deployed near the Sierras de Cordoba in Argentina, a region known for having some of the most intense severe weather in the world. In addition to these two radars, the operational radar of the Cordoba City, the Radar Meteorologico Argentino 1 (RMA-1), adds another instrument to the RELAMPAGO network. This study presents an intercomparison between the RELAMPAGO C-band radars using the GPM spaceborne radar as a common reference ..A method to bring ground-based radars into better agreement is also proposed. Moreover, the attenuation correction for the C-band radar is studied in the context of intercomparing two radars. The attenuation coefficients are computed for the RELAMPAGO domain using the local disdrometers deployed. during the campaign. After the attenuation correction, CSU-CHIVO, CSAPR-2, and RMA-1 compare well with GPM-DPR with a high correlation and bias less than 1 dB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deploying and Tracking Software with NCCS Software Provisioning

The National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has a long history of deploying ground-breaking leadership-class supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy. The latest in this line of supercomputers is Frontier, the first supercomputer to break the exascale barrier (1018 floating-point operations per second) on the TOP500 list. Frontier serves a wide array of scientific domains, from traditional simulation-based workloads to newer AI and Machine Learning workloads. To best serve the NCCS user community, NCCS uses Spack to deploy a comprehensive software stack of scientific software packages, providing straightforward access to these packages through Lmod Environment Modules. Maintaining a large software stack while also including multiple new compiler releases each year is a very time-consuming task. Additionally, it is not straightforward to provide a software stack alongside existing vendor-provided software such as the HPE/Cray Programming Environment (CPE), and existing CPE, Spack, and Lmod integration does not allow for multiple versions of GPU libraries such as AMD’s ROCm to be used. To address these challenges and shortcomings, NCCS has developed the NCCS Software Provisioning tool (NSP)1, a tool for deploying and monitoring software stacks on HPC systems. NSP allows NCCS to quickly and effectively provision software stacks from the ground up using template-driven recipes and configuration files. NSP is successfully deployed on Frontier and several other NCCS clusters, enabling the NCCS software team to quickly deploy software stacks for newly-released compilers, expand current software offerings, better support GPU-based software, and monitor Lmod module usage to identify unused software packages that can be removed from the software stack. In this work, we discuss the shortcomings of the previous CPE, Spack, and Lmod usage at NCCS, provide further details on the implementation and structure of NSP, then discuss the benefits that NSP provides.

Rentschler, Asa [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000597694743)↗

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗