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At least 361 records · Page 20

Dust Abundance Variations in the Magellanic Clouds: Probing the Life-cycle of Metals with All-sky Surveys

Observations and modeling suggest that dust abundance (gas-to-dust ratio, G/D) depends on (surface) density. Variations of the G/D provide timescale constraints for the different processes involved in the life cycle of metals in galaxies. Recent G/D measurements based on Herschel data suggest a factor of 5–10 decrease in dust abundance between the dense and diffuse interstellar media (ISM) in the Magellanic Clouds. However, the relative nature of the Herschel measurements precludes definitive conclusions as to the magnitude of those variations. We investigate variations of the dust abundance in the LMC and SMC using all-sky far-infrared surveys, which do not suffer from the limitations of Herschel on their zero-point calibration. We stack the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) at 100, 350, 550, and 850 microns from IRAS and Planck in intervals of gas surface density, model the stacked SEDs to derive the dust surface density, and constrain the relation between G/D and gas surface density in the range 10–100 M {sub ⊙} pc{sup −2} on ∼80 pc scales. We find that G/D decreases by factors of 3 (from 1500 to 500) in the LMC and 7 (from 1.5×10{sup 4} to 2000) in the SMC between the diffuse and dense ISM. The surface-density-dependence of G/D is consistent with elemental depletions, and with simple modeling of the accretion of gas-phase metals onto dust grains. This result has important implications for the sub-grid modeling of galaxy evolution, and for the calibration of dust-based gas-mass estimates, both locally and at high redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗

Numerical Simulations of Two-Phase Reacting Flow in a Single-Element Lean Direct Injection (LDI) Combustor Using NCC

A series of numerical simulations of Jet-A spray reacting flow in a single-element lean direct injection (LDI) combustor have been conducted by using the National Combustion Code (NCC). The simulations have been carried out using the time filtered Navier-Stokes (TFNS) approach ranging from the steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), unsteady RANS (URANS), to the dynamic flow structure simulation (DFS). The sub-grid model employed for turbulent mixing and combustion includes the well-mixed model, the linear eddy mixing (LEM) model, and the filtered mass density function (FDF/PDF) model. The starting condition of the injected liquid spray is specified via empirical droplet size correlation, and a five-species single-step global reduced mechanism is employed for fuel chemistry. All the calculations use the same grid whose resolution is of the RANS type. Comparisons of results from various models are presented.

Liu, Nan-Suey↗

DERMS-RT (Distributed Energy Resource Management Solution using Real-Time Optimization) [SWR-20-46]

DERMS-RT provides a distributed energy resource management solution using real-time optimization to control different types of distributed energy resources (DERs) — such as rooftop PVs, battery energy storage systems, HVAC loads, electric water heater loads, and EV charging loads, and use these DERs to provide distribution voltage regulation and peak demand management services. The control approach implemented by DERM-RT is developed based on the real-time optimal power flow and distributed control previously developed by NREL researchers. The software codes are designed to provide modular DER management solution that can be easily applied to control heterogeneous DERs in distribution grids in coordination with centralized utility management systems. Also, DERMS-RT provides application programming interface (API) to extract useful grid model information from an open-source power system simulation software, use the information to solve the optimization problem, and apply the optimal set-points to the controlled DERs. In this way, DERMS-RT provides a plug-and-play function for implementing the real-time DER control on different utility system models, and it can be used as a simulation testbed to demonstrate the impact of real-time DER optimization on improving grid operations.

Ding, Fei↗

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

POPSnet-SGP: A Pilot Aerosol Microphysics Network for Targeting Climate Model Uncertainty Interim Field Campaign Report

Aerosols mediate the radiative fluxes in clear and cloudy skies and dominate the uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Relatively dense networks of aerosol optical depth measurements have been used to effectively constrain simulated aerosol optical properties, but model diversity of aerosol microphysical properties is much larger (Mann et al. 2014, Myhre et al. 2009). A better understanding of aerosol microphysics is essential as they are the fundamental pieces of information required to convert aerosol emissions information to radiative and cloud-nucleating properties that drive radiative effects and forcing of climate. Model representation of aerosol microphysical properties has lagged in part due to their inherently greater spatial variability, but also due to a lack of available observations. This project – the Printed Optical Particle Spectrometer Network (POPSnet)-Southern Great Plains (SGP) Pilot – launched the first spatially dense network of aerosol size distribution measurements over an area the size of a global model grid cell and demonstrated its use in providing valuable information regarding the spatial variability of aerosol microphysical properties and its drivers for improving model constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climatological simulations of ozone and atmospheric aerosols in the Greater Cairo region

An integrated chemistry-climate model (RegCM4-CHEM) simulates present-day climate, ozone and tropospheric aerosols over Egypt with a focus on Greater Cairo (GC) region. The densley populated GC region is known for its severe air quality issues driven by high levels of anthropogenic pollution in conjuction with natural sources such as dust and agricultural burning events. We find that current global emission inventories underestimate key pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and anthropogenic aerosol species. In the GC region, average-ground-based NO2 observations of 40-60 ppb are substantially higher than modeled estimates (5-10 ppb), likely due to model grid resolution, improper boundary layer representation, and poor emissions inventories. Observed ozone concentrations range from 35 ppb (winter) to 80 ppb (summer). The model reproduces the seasonal cycle fairly well, but modeled summer ozone is understimated by approximately 15 ppb and exhibits little interannual variability. For aerosols, springtime dust events dominate the seasonal aerosol cycle. The chemistry-climate model captures the springtime peak aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 0.7-1 but is slightly greater than satellite-derived AOD. Observed AOD decreases in the summer and increases again in the fall due to agricultural burning events in the Nile Delta, yet the model underestimates this fall observed AOD peak, as standard emissions inventories underestimate this burning and the resulting aerosol emissions. Our comparison of modeled gas and particulate phase atmospheric chemistry in the GC region indicates that improved emissions inventories of mobile sources and other anthropogenic activities are needed to improve air quality simulations in this region.

Steiner, A. L.↗

A study of frontal dynamics with application to the Australian summertime 'cool change'

The dynamics of frontal evolution is examined in terms of the Australian summertime cool change using a two-dimensional numerical model. The model is synthesized from observational data on surface cold fronts obtained during the Australian Cold Fronts Research Program, and the model develops a quasi-steady surface cold front during the 24 hours of integration. The characteristics of this model are compared with those of a kinematic model; it is observed that the features of the two models correspond. The two-dimensional and kinematic models are also compared with a 24-hour prediction of the cold front of February 1983 using the three-dimensional nested-grid model of the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Center, developed by Gauntlett et al. (1984). Good correlation between these models is detected.

Reeder, Michael J.↗

Millimeter-wave diode-grid phase shifters

Monolithic diode grids have been fabricated on 2-cm square gallium-arsenide wafers with 1600 Schottky-barrier varactor diodes. Shorted diodes are detected with a liquid-crystal technique, and the bad diodes are removed with an ultrasonic probe. A small-aperture reflectometer that uses wavefront division interference was developed to measure the reflection coefficient of the grids. A phase shift of 70 deg with a 7-dB loss was obtained at 93 GHz when the bias on the diode grid was changed from -3 V to 1 V. A simple transmission-line grid model, together with the measured low-frequency parameters for the diodes, was shown to predict the measured performance over the entire capacitive bias range of the diodes, as well as over the complete reactive tuning range provided by a reflector behind the grid, and over a wide range of frequencies from 33 GHz to 141 GHz. This shows that the transmission-line model and the measured low-frequency diode parameters can be used to design an electronic beam-steering array and to predict its performance. An electronic beam-steering array made of a pair of grids using state-of-the-art diodes with 5-ohm series resistances would have a loss of 1.4 dB at 90 GHz.

Lam, Wayne W.↗

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDO) for Co-Designed Transmission & Distribution Electric Grid Planning

This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A SPECTROSCOPIC CATALOG OF THE BRIGHTEST (J < 9) M DWARFS IN THE NORTHERN SKY{sup ,}

We present a spectroscopic catalog of the 1564 brightest (J < 9) M dwarf candidates in the northern sky, as selected from the SUPERBLINK proper motion catalog. Observations confirm 1408 of the candidates to be late-K and M dwarfs with spectral subtypes K7-M6. From the low ({mu} > 40 mas yr{sup -1}) proper motion limit and high level of completeness of the SUPERBLINK catalog in that magnitude range, we estimate that our spectroscopic census most likely includes >90% of all existing, northern-sky M dwarfs with apparent magnitude J < 9. Only 682 stars in our sample are listed in the Third Catalog of Nearby Stars (CNS3); most others are relative unknowns and have spectroscopic data presented here for the first time. Spectral subtypes are assigned based on spectral index measurements of CaH and TiO molecular bands; a comparison of spectra from the same stars obtained at different observatories, however, reveals that spectral band index measurements are dependent on spectral resolution, spectrophotometric calibration, and other instrumental factors. As a result, we find that a consistent classification scheme requires that spectral indices be calibrated and corrected for each observatory/instrument used. After systematic corrections and a recalibration of the subtype-index relationships for the CaH2, CaH3, TiO5, and TiO6 spectral indices, we find that we can consistently and reliably classify all our stars to a half-subtype precision. The use of corrected spectral indices further requires us to recalibrate the {zeta} parameter, a metallicity indicator based on the ratio of TiO and CaH optical bandheads. However, we find that our {zeta} values are not sensitive enough to diagnose metallicity variations in dwarfs of subtypes M2 and earlier ({+-}0.5 dex accuracy) and are only marginally useful at later M3-M5 subtypes ({+-}0.2 dex accuracy). Fits of our spectra to the Phoenix atmospheric model grid are used to estimate effective temperatures. These suggest the existence of a plateau in the M1-M3 subtype range, in agreement with model fits of infrared spectra but at odds with photometric determinations of T{sub eff}. Existing geometric parallax measurements are extracted from the literature for 624 stars, and are used to determine spectroscopic and photometric distances for all the other stars. Active dwarfs are identified from measurements of H{alpha} equivalent widths, and we find a strong correlation between H{alpha} emission in M dwarfs and detected X-ray emission from ROSAT and/or a large UV excess in the GALEX point source catalog. We combine proper motion data and photometric distances to evaluate the (U, V, W) distribution in velocity space, which is found to correlate tightly with the velocity distribution of G dwarfs in the solar neighborhood. However, active stars show a smaller dispersion in their space velocities, which is consistent with those stars being younger on average. Our catalog will be most useful to guide the selection of the best M dwarf targets for exoplanet searches, in particular those using high-precision radial velocity measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Task 5 Field Scale Stress Modeling Scripts and Data

Project data and Matlab scripts for Task 5 of the project “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO2 Storage”. Project includes the static earth models, grids and other data used for simulation and calibration of the two case studies addressed in the project, referred to herein as the “FutureGen2” model (Illinois) and the “Perch” model (Otsego county, Michigan). Large Dataset, please contact EDXSupport@netl.doe.gov

FutureGen2↗

Net diffusivity in ocean general circulation models with nonuniform grids

The numerical vertical diffusivity K(num), embedded in a numerical ocean general circulation model with nonuniform vertical grid, is estimated. It is shown that in a downwelling region, K(num) is negative for a grid with grid size increasing with depth. When the grid size increment, or the downward vertical velocity, is large, K(num) may exceed the vertical diffusivity specified and may result in a negative effective vertical diffusivity. Therefore care needs to be taken to specify the vertical diffusivity in a numerical model with nonuniform grid, and a lower bound is generally imposed in order to avoid an unphysical negative value. Some possible effects of the negative effective diffusivity are discussed.

Yin, F. L.↗

Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable-resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5-VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone-related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone-induced hazards may change in future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of global warming on river runoff

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Miller, James R.↗

Parameterizing Convective Organization Effects With a Moisture-PDF Approach in Climate Models: Concept and a Regional Case Simulation

We propose a parameterization scheme of convective organization effects based on a moisture-distribution approach, which can reflect aggregation of convective cells within a model grid as well as the interaction between convection and spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture. With this concept, convective cells in an aggregated state are surrounded by air that is moister than the grid-mean condition, which provides a “shielding” effect favorable for deeper convective updrafts. Such effects are represented quantitatively via utilizing a schematic diagram about the geometric interpretation of convective cluster, dry area, and their contact area, in which both the convective cluster size and dry area fraction increase during the development of convection. Our sensitivity analyses indicate that the new scheme performs well in capturing the mean precipitation features. Excluding the convective organization effects in the model leads to a considerable reduction in the simulated precipitation magnitude. Notably, there exists an inverse relationship between background mean moisture condition and sub-grid moisture variability for a given rain rate, suggesting that with a high spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture, convection can still develop and maintain its strength under relatively dry background conditions, consistent with the convection-permitting model simulation. Overall, our new parameterization of convective organization effects can successfully reproduce the relationship between precipitation and sub-grid moisture variability, which is a missing element in traditional convection parameterization schemes but important for the simulations of precipitation variability at various scales in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗