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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

304L Can Crush Validation Studies

Accurate prediction of ductile behavior of structural alloys up to and including failure is essential in component or system failure assessment, which is necessary for nuclear weapons alteration and life extensions programs of Sandia National Laboratories. Modeling such behavior requires computational capabilities to robustly capture strong nonlinearities (geometric and material), rate- dependent and temperature-dependent properties, and ductile failure mechanisms. This study's objective is to validate numerical simulations of a high-deformation crush of a stainless steel can. The process consists of identifying a suitable can geometry and loading conditions, conducting the laboratory testing, developing a high-quality Sierra/SM simulation, and then drawing comparisons between model and measurement to assess the fitness of the simulation in regards to material model (plasticity), finite element model construction, and failure model. Following previous material model calibration, a J 2 plasticity model with a microstructural BCJ failure model is employed to model the test specimen made of 304L stainless steel. Simulated results are verified and validated through mesh and mass-scaling convergence studies, parameter sensitivity studies, and a comparison to experimental data. The converged mesh and degree of mass-scaling are the mesh discretization with 140,372 elements, and a mass scaling with a target time increment of 1.0e-6 seconds and time step scale factor of 0.5, respectively. Results from the coupled thermal-mechanical explicit dynamic analysis are comparable to the experimental data. Simulated global force vs displacement (F/D) response predicts key points such as yield, ultimate, and kinks of the experimental F/D response. Furthermore, the final deformed shape of the can and field data predicted from the analysis are similar to that of the deformed can, as measured by 3D optical CMM scans and DIC data from the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method for Extracting Aerodynamic Coefficients and Winds On-the-Fly Using Real-Time GPS Data

The landing accuracy of an autonomous guided parafoil is influenced by its ability to predict the trajectory, which is shaped by the parafoil’s aerodynamic characteristics and atmospheric winds. The parafoil is subjective to imperfections from manufacturing, damage during deployment, lateral asymmetry, and so forth, leading to discrepancies between the actual aerodynamic properties and the onboard aerodynamic model. Thus, by acquiring an accurate knowledge of the aerodynamic properties and real-time winds, the onboard simulation can reduce the undertainties in the dynamics modeling for trajectory propagation to improve the landing accuracy. For that purpose, a non-linear least-squares method is developed to calculate differential corrections for optimizing and extracting the parafoil aerodynamic coefficients and winds on-the-fly using real-time data from the Global Positioning System (GPS). Post-flight analyses from two test flights have shown that the method provides improved simulations that closely match the GPS trajectories.

Lisa Ling↗
NASA NTRS2015

The NASA Earth Science Program and Small Satellites

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by Government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the spacebased observing systems and supporting infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions to assure availability of key climate data sets, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Small satellites (~500 kg or less) are critical contributors to these current and future satellite missions. Some examples are the aforementioned Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), and the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) microsatellite constellation. Small satellites also support ESD in space validation and risk reduction of enabling technologies (components and systems). The status of the ESD Flight Program and the role of small satellites will be discussed.

Earth Science Prog & Small Sat↗
NASA NTRS1999

Detection of Crystalline Hematite Mineralization on Mars by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer: Evidence for Near-surface Water

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission has discovered a remarkable accumulation of crystalline hematite ((alpha-Fe2O3) that covers an area with very sharp boundaries approximately 350 by 350-750 km in size centered near 2 S latitude between 0 and 5 W longitude (Sinus Meridiani). Crystalline hematite is uniquely identified by the presence of fundamental vibrational absorption features centered near 300, 450, and >525/cm, and by the absence of silicate fundamentals in the 1000/cm region. Spectral features resulting from atmospheric CO2, dust, and water ice were removed using a radiative transfer model. The spectral properties unique to Sinus Meridiani were emphasized by removing the average spectrum of the surrounding region. The depth and shape of the hematite fundamental bands show that the hematite is crystalline and relatively coarse grained (>5-10 micron). Diameters up to and greater than 100s of micrometers are permitted within the instrumental noise and natural variability of hematite spectra. Hematite particles <5-10 micron in diameter (either as an unpacked or hard-packed powders) fail to match the TES spectra. The spectrally-derived areal abundance of hematite varies with particle size from approximately 10% for particles >30 micron in diameter to 40-60% for unpacked 10 micron powders. The hematite in Sinus Meridiani is thus distinct from the fine-grained (diameter <5-10 micron), red, crystalline hematite considered, on the basis of visible, near-IR data, to be a minor spectral component in Martian bright regions like Olympus-Amazonis. Sinus Meridiani hematite is closely associated with a smooth, layered, friable surface that is interpreted to be sedimentary in origin. This material may be the uppermost surface in the region, indicating that it could be a late-stage sedimentary unit, or it could be a layered portion of the heavily cratered plains units. We consider five possible mechanisms for the formation of coarse-grained, crystalline hematite. These processes fall into two classes depending on whether they require a significant amount of near-surface water: (1) chemical precipitation that includes origin by (a) precipitation from oxygenated, Fe-rich water (iron formations), (b) hydrothermal extraction and crystal growth.

Christensen, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Spectral Resolution MODIS Algorithms for Ocean Chlorophyll in Case II Waters

The Case 2 chlorophyll a algorithm is based on a semi-analytical, bio-optical model of remote sensing reflectance, R(sub rs)(lambda), where R(sub rs)(lambda) is defined as the water-leaving radiance, L(sub w)(lambda), divided by the downwelling irradiance just above the sea surface, E(sub d)(lambda,0(+)). The R(sub rs)(lambda) model (Section 3) has two free variables, the absorption coefficient due to phytoplankton at 675 nm, a(sub phi)(675), and the absorption coefficient due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) or gelbstoff at 400 nm, a(sub g)(400). The R(rs) model has several parameters that are fixed or can be specified based on the region and season of the MODIS scene. These control the spectral shapes of the optical constituents of the model. R(sub rs)(lambda(sub i)) values from the MODIS data processing system are placed into the model, the model is inverted, and a(sub phi)(675), a(sub g)(400) (MOD24), and chlorophyll a (MOD21, Chlor_a_3) are computed. Algorithm development is initially focused on tropical, subtropical, and summer temperate environments, and the model is parameterized in Section 4 for three different bio-optical domains: (1) high ratios of photoprotective pigments to chlorophyll and low self-shading, which for brevity, we designate as 'unpackaged'; (2) low ratios and high self-shading, which we designate as 'packaged'; and (3) a transitional or global-average type. These domains can be identified from space by comparing sea-surface temperature to nitrogen-depletion temperatures for each domain (Section 5). Algorithm errors of more than 45% are reduced to errors of less than 30% with this approach, with the greatest effect occurring at the eastern and polar boundaries of the basins. Section 6 provides an expansion of bio-optical domains into high-latitude waters. The 'fully packaged' pigment domain is introduced in this section along with a revised strategy for implementing these variable packaging domains. Chlor_a_3 values derived semi-analytically and Chlor_a_2 values derived empirically using the O Reilly et al. OC3M algorithm from MODIS Terra radiances are compared to field chlorophyll-a concentrations in Sections 7 and 8.

Carder, Kendall L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Aerodynamic properties of turbulent combustion fields

Flow fields involving turbulent flames in premixed gases under a variety of conditions are modeled by the use of a numerical technique based on the random vortex method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations and a flame propagation algorithm to trace the motion of the front and implement the Huygens principle, both due to Chorin. A successive over-relaxation hybrid method is applied to solve the Euler equation for flows in an arbitrarily shaped domain. The method of images, conformal transformation, and the integral-equation technique are also used to treat flows in special cases, according to their particular requirements. Salient features of turbulent flame propagation in premixed gases are interpreted by relating them to the aerodynamic properties of the flow field. Included among them is the well-known cellular structure of flames stabilized by bluff bodies, as well as the formation of the characteristic tulip shape of flames propagating in ducts. In its rudimentary form, the mechanism of propagation of a turbulent flame is shown to consist of: (1) rotary motion of eddies at the flame front, (2) self-advancement of the front at an appropriate normal burning speed, and (3) dynamic effects of expansion due to exothermicity of the combustion reaction. An idealized model is used to illustrate these fundamental mechanisms and to investigate basic aerodynamic features of flames in premixed gases. The case of a confined flame stabilized behind a rearward-facing step is given particular care and attention. Solutions are shown to be in satisfactory agreement with experimental results, especially with respect to global properties such as the average velocity profiles and reattachment length.

Hsiao, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Some test/analysis issues for the space station structural characterization experiment

The Space Station Structural Characterization Experiment (SSSCE) 1,2 is an early space flight experiment that uses the space station as a generic structure to study the dynamic characteristics of Large Space Structures (LSS). On-orbit modal testing will be conducted to determine natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping of dominant structural modes of the space structure assembly. This experiment will utimately support the development of system identification and analytical modeling techniques for Large Space Structures. In order to ensure the success of SSSCE (in-space validation of modeling techniques for LSS), adequate measurement and instrumentation requirements have to be established during the experiment-definition study. Among the issues affecting these requirements, spatial and modal coverages of the modal test data are of particular interest. Topics such as total number of sensors, type of measurements (translation and rotation), optimal sensor locations (measurement degrees-of-freedom), selection of target modes, effects of modal superposition and truncation, separation of global and local modes, etc., are all a fundamental importance and must be investigated.

Chou, Chaur-Ming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Periodic Korteweg–de Vries soliton potentials generate quasisymmetric magnetic field strength in a finite plasma- β equilibrium

Quasisymmetry (QS) is a hidden symmetry of the magnetic field strength, B , that enables effective confinement of charged particles in a fully three-dimensional (3D) toroidal plasma equilibrium. Such equilibria are typically modeled by the ideal magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equations. The nonlinear, overdetermined nature of the QS MHS equations severely complicates our understanding of the interplay between 3D shaping, equilibrium properties such as pressure and rotational transform, and B . Progress has been made through expansions near the magnetic axis; however, a more comprehensive theory is desirable. Using a combination of analysis and regression on a large dataset of numerically optimized quasisymmetric stellarators, we demonstrate that there is a hidden lower dimensionality of B on a magnetic flux surface with connections to the theory of periodic solitons. We show that B on a flux surface is determined by three or at most four flux functions, each of which determines a critical value of the derivative of B along the field line. While being consistent with the near-axis models, our results are global and hold even on the last closed flux surface.

Differential geometry↗
NASA NTRS1995

The striking near-infrared morphology of the inner region in M100

New optical and near-infrared (NIR) K-band images of the inner 3 kpc region of the nearby Virgo spiral M100 (NGC 4321) display remarkable morphological changes with wavelength. While in the optical the light is dominated by circumnuclear zone of enhanced star formation, the morphological features in the 2.2 micrometer image correspond to a newly discovered kiloparsec-size stellar bar and a pair of leading arms situated inside an ovally shaped region. Analysis of the K image confirms its symmetry: only a very small percentage of the flux, some 5%, is emitted in antisymmetric structures. This indicates that the overall morphology observed in the NIR is dominated by a global density wave. Making a first-order correction for the presence of localized dust extinction in the K light using the I-K image, we find that the observed leading arm morphology is not caused or enhanced but in fact slightly hidden by dust. Possible mechanisms responsible for the optical and NIR morphology are discussed, and tests are proposed to discriminate between them. Our dynamical conclusions are supported with an evolutionary stellar population model reproducing the observed optical and NIR colors in a number of star-forming zones. We argue that the observed morphology is compatible with the presence of a pair of inner Lindblad resonances in the region and show this explicitly in an accompanying paper by detailed numerical modeling. The phenomena observed in NGC 4321 may provide insight into physical process leading to central activity in galaxies.

Knapen, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mutations of Omicron Variant at the Interface of the Receptor Domain Motif and Human Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme-2

The most recent Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has caused global concern and anxiety. The only thing certain about this strain, with a large number of mutations in the spike protein, is that it spreads quickly, seems to evade immune defense, and mitigates the benefits of existing vaccines. Based on the ultra-large-scale ab initio computational modeling of the receptor binding motif (RBM) and the human angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) interface, we provide the details of the effect of Omicron mutations at the fundamental atomic scale level. In-depth analysis anchored in the novel concept of amino acid-amino acid bond pair units (AABPU) indicates that mutations in the Omicron variant are connected with (i) significant changes in the shape and structure of AABPU components, together with (ii) significant increase in the positive partial charge, which facilitates the interaction with ACE2. We have identified changes in bonding due to mutations in the RBM. The calculated bond order, based on AABPU, reveals that the Omicron mutations increase the binding strength of RBM to ACE2. Our findings correlate with and are instrumental to explain the current observations and can contribute to the prediction of next potential new variant of concern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

Design, Fabrication, and Testing of SMA Enabled Adaptive Chevrons for Jet Noise Reduction

This study presents the status and results from an effort to design, fabricate, and test an adaptive jet engine chevron concept based upon embedding shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators in a composite laminate, termed a SMA hybrid composite (SMAHC). The approach for fabricating the adaptive SMAHC chevrons involves embedding prestrained Nitinol actuators on one side of the mid-plane of the composite laminate such that thermal excitation generates a thermal moment and deflects the structure. A glass-epoxy pre-preg/Nitinol ribbon material system and a vacuum hot press consolidation approach are employed. A versatile test system for control and measurement of the chevron deflection performance is described. Projection moire interferometry (PMI) is used for global deformation measurement and infrared (IR) thermography is used for 2-D temperature measurement and feedback control. A recently commercialized constitutive model for SMA and SMAHC materials is used in the finite element code ABAQUS to perform nonlinear static analysis of the chevron prototypes. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured chevron deflection performance, thereby validating the design tool. Although the performance results presented in this paper fall short of the requirement, the concept is proven and an approach for achieving the performance objectives is evident.

Turner, Travis L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

One-dimensional Holstein model revisited

Here, we analyze the global ground-state (quantum) phase diagram of the one-dimensional spinful Holstein model at half filling as a function of the strength of the electron-phonon coupling (represented by the strength of the phonon-induced attraction, U) and the phonon frequency ω 0 . In addition to reanalyzing the various asymptotic regimes, we carry out density-matrix renormalization group simulations to correct previous inferences concerning the antiadiabatic (large ω 0 ) and strong-coupling (large U) regimes. There are two distinct phases—a fully gapped commensurate charge-density-wave phase and a spin-gapped Luther-Emery phase with a gapless charge mode—separated by a phase boundary, with a shape that reflects different microscopic physics in the weak- and strong-coupling limits.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Suitable low Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants for two-speed Heat Pumps for residential applications based on speed Heat Pumps for residential applications based on simulated performance simulated performance

Cold climate Heat Pumps (CCHPs) using single-speed compressors in tandem have been successfully built and tested to reach its performance metrics with outdoor temperatures as low as -25°C. CCHPs must be designed to alleviate the problems of too high discharge temperatures, low suction pressure and high-pressure ratio at low ambient conditions and insufficient heating capacity relative to the heating capacity at 8.3°C. In this paper we recognize those concerns. Low-GWP refrigerants are screened based on the shape of their T-S saturation boundary. Simulations of the performance of low-GWP refrigerants (R32, R454B, R466A, and R452B) relative to R410A is done using the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model at the component level. Systemic inefficiency, the root cause of lost work, is addressed by component-level exergy analysis to refine design options. CCHPs using low-GWP refrigerants addresses issues of reducing energy consumption, lowering carbon footprint, and enabling environmentally sustainability. The CCHP was designed to meet a HSPF > 11.0 and SEER > 15.0 having adequate heat pump heating capacity down to -25°C. It is estimated that at least 2.6 million U.S homes using electric furnaces and heat pumps in cold or very old climates with an annual energy consumption of 0.17EJ would benefit by CCHPs.

Ally, Moonis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Statistics of Microphysical Properties of Cloud-Top Ice Crystals

Ice crystals in clouds are highly complex. Their sizes, macroscale shape (i.e., habit), mesoscale shape (i.e., aspect ratio of components) and microscale shape (i.e., surface roughness) determine optical properties and affect physical properties such as fall speeds, growth rates and aggregation efficiency. Our current understanding on the formation and evolution of ice crystals under various conditions can be considered poor. Commonly, ice crystal size and shape are related to ambient temperature and humidity, but global observational statistics on the variation of ice crystal size and particularly shape have not been available. Here we show results of a project aiming to infer ice crystal size, shape and scattering properties from a combination of MODIS measurements and POLDER-PARASOL multi-angle polarimetry. The shape retrieval procedure infers the mean aspect ratios of components of ice crystals and the mean microscale surface roughness levels, which are quantifiable parameters that mostly affect the scattering properties, in contrast to a habit. We present global statistics on the variation of ice effective radius, component aspect ratio, microscale surface roughness and scattering asymmetry parameter as a function of cloud top temperature, latitude, location, cloud type, season, etc. Generally, with increasing height, sizes decrease, roughness increases, asymmetry parameters decrease and aspect ratios increase towards unity. Some systematic differences are observed for clouds warmer and colder than the homogeneous freezing level. Uncertainties in the retrievals will be discussed. These statistics can be used as observational targets for modeling efforts and to better constrain other satellite remote sensing applications and their uncertainties.

Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3)

Abstract. Predicting future climate change over a region of complex terrain, such as the western United States (US), remains challenging due to the low resolution of global climate models (GCMs). Yet the climate extremes of recent years in this region, such as floods, wildfires, and drought, are likely to intensify further as climate warms, underscoring the need for high-quality and high-resolution predictions. Here, we present an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations over the western US from 1980–2100 at 9 km grid spacing, driven by 16 latest-generation GCMs. This dataset is titled the Western US Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3). We describe the challenges of producing WUS-D3, including GCM selection and technical issues, and we evaluate the simulations' realism by comparing historical results to temperature and precipitation observations. The future downscaled climate change signals are shaped in physically credible ways by the regional model's more realistic coastlines and topography. (1) The mean warming signals are heavily influenced by more realistic snowpack. (2) Mean precipitation changes are often consistent with wetting on the windward side of mountain complexes, as warmer, moister air masses are uplifted orographically during precipitation events. (3) There are large fractional precipitation increases on the lee side of mountain complexes, leading to potentially significant changes in water resources and ecology in these arid landscapes. (4) Increases in precipitation extremes are generally larger than in the GCMs, driven by locally intensified atmospheric updrafts tied to sharper, more realistic gradients in topography. (5) Changes in temperature extremes are different from what is expected by a shift in mean temperature and are shaped by local atmospheric dynamics and land surface feedbacks. Because of its high resolution, comprehensiveness, and representation of relevant physical processes, this dataset presents a unique opportunity to evaluate societally relevant future changes in western US climate.

Rahimi, Stefan (ORCID:0000000331884462)↗