Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “geologic model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Press abstracts of the 21st Lunar and Planetary Science Conference

The Program Committee for the Twenty-fisrt Lunar and Planetary Science Conference has chosen these contributions as having the greatest potential interest for the general public. The papers in this collection were written for general presentation, avoiding jargon and unnecessarily complex terms. More technical abstracts will be found in Lunar and Planetary Science XXI. Representative titles are: Ancient Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions on Mars: Global Model and Geological Evidence; Oxygen Isotopic Compositions of Ordinary Chondrites and Their Chondrules; Exposure Ages and Collisional History of L-Chondrite Parent Bodies; Models of Solar-Powered Geysers on Triton; and Search for Life: A Science Rationale for a Permanent Base on Mars.

Source record↗

Impact Modeling and Testing of Pouch and Prismatic Cells

Understanding battery response under impact is critical to improve the safety of electrified vehicles. Nevertheless, predicting the impact behaviors of batteries is not straightforward since a battery cell usually contains hundreds of thin layers with dramatically different material properties and multiple physical processes occur simultaneously during cell deformation. Here we utilized both empirical tests and numerical models to capture the failure process of pouch and prismatic cells in various impact scenarios. In each test, a cell was hit once by an indenter dropped from a certain height. During which the cell penetration, loading force, voltage and temperature were monitored to characterize the cell’s response. Meanwhile, numerical models were developed to capture the coupled mechanical, electrical, electrochemical and thermal responses of batteries. In these models, the cell bulk was treated as a homogeneous part to achieve computational efficiency required by large-scale simulations, and it was represented by the geologic cap model that allows both shear and compaction deformation. Simulation results showed agreement with experimental data in essential features of cell behaviors during impact. Details of the test setup, model development and cell failure behaviors are presented in this paper. Additionally, capabilities, limitations and future improvement of the battery safety modeling are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

VESIcal Part I: An open-source thermodynamic model engine for mixed volatile (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts

Thermodynamics has been fundamental to the interpretation of geologic data and modeling of geologic systems for decades. However, more recent advancements in computational capabilities and a marked increase in researchers’ accessibility to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of currently available modeling tools. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and Saturation Identification calculator): the first comprehensive modeling tool for H 2 O, CO 2 , and mixed (H 2 O-CO 2 ) solubility in silicate melts that: a) allows users access to seven commonly used models, plus easy inter-comparison between models; b) provides universal functionality for all models (e.g., functions for calculating saturation pressures, degassing paths, etc.); c) can process large datasets (1,000’s of samples) automatically; d) can output computed data into an excel spreadsheet for simple post-modeling analysis; e) integrates advanced plotting capabilities directly within the tool; and f) provides all of these within the framework of a python library, making the tool extensible by the user and allowing any of the model functions to be incorporated into any other code capable of calling python. The tool is presented within this manuscript, which is a Jupyter notebook containing worked examples accessible to python users with a range of skill levels. The basic functions of VESIcal can also be access via a web app (https://vesical.anvil.app). The VESIcal python library is open-source and available for download at https://github.com/kaylai/VESIcal.

K. Iacovino↗

Evaluation of ERTS-1 data applications to geologic mapping, structural analysis and mineral resource inventory of South America with special emphasis on the Andes Mountain region

The author has identified the following significant results. The La Paz Mosaic and its attendant overlays serve as a model for geologic studies elsewhere in the world. The P.I. and two geologists are mapping the conterminous states at scales of 1:5000,000 and 1:1,000,000. The 1:5 million band 5 mosaic was completed in two days of analysis. The 1:1 million band sheets are being completed at the rate of one per day. Comparison of the preliminary results of the three investigators shows a high correlation of linear and curvilinear features. Comparison with magnetic and gravity data indicates that many features being mapped are deep seated structures that have been active through long periods of geologic time, perhaps dating back to the Precambrian period. A detailed analysis of the El Salvador mining district has been completed. The interpretation is extremely detailed showing a complex pattern of linear features and bedrock outcrop patterns. This is the first product from ERTS-1 to be provided by Chile and shows a high degree of expertise in image interpretation. The Chileans are enthusiastic about their results and are anxious to map the entire country using ERTS.

Carter, W. D.↗

Three-Dimensional Free Gas Flow Focuses Basin-Wide Microbial Methane to Concentrated Methane Hydrate Reservoirs in Geological System

Here, we present a systematic model that links the generation, migration, phase partitioning, and accumulation of methane into a closed loop as the sediment is deposited from the seafloor and buried through the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ). In our model, methane is generated by biodegradation of organic carbon in muds. Hydrate does not form and methane is not trapped until a coarse-grained layer is deposited, because the small pores prevent hydrate formation in muds. Instead, methane diffuses into sands/silts where methane solidifies into hydrate. As hydrate-bearing sands/silts pass through the BHSZ during sediment burial, methane hydrate dissociates, and releases free gas. The released and the newly generated free gas below the BHSZ concentrates into a vertical/dipping zone with low capillary entry pressure and high permeability and flows upward driven its buoyancy. When free gas reaches the hydrate stability zone (HSZ), capillary forces drive free gas to flow laterally, preferentially enter sands/silts, feed hydrate growth, and elevate hydrate saturation. With three-dimensional focused free gas flow, microbial methane that is generated from a much larger fetch area of the entire basin, both above and below the BHSZ, is concentrated into coarse-grained layers at structural closures for hydrate formation. Our model illustrates how geological evolution, microbial methane generation, and gas flow by buoyancy couple to generate concentrated hydrate deposits in geological system. These insights can be used to explore for high-concentration methane hydrate and are important for understanding the methane budget and carbon cycle under the seafloor.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

simulation↗

Assessing Reservoir Depositional Environments to Develop and Quantify Improvements in CO 2 Storage Efficiency. A Reservoir Simulation Approach

The storage potential and fluid movement within formations are dependent on the unique hydraulic characteristics of their respective depositional environments. Storage efficiency (E) quantifies the potential for storage in a geologic depositional environment and is used to assess basinal or regional CO 2 storage resources. Current estimates of storage resources are calculated using common E ranges by lithology and not by depositional environment. The objectives of this project are to quantify E ranges and identify E enhancement strategies for different depositional environments via reservoir simulation studies. The depositional environments considered include deltaic, shelf clastic, shelf carbonate, fluvial deltaic, strandplain, reef, fluvial and alluvial, and turbidite. Strategies considered for enhancing E include CO 2 injection via vertical, horizontal, and deviated wells, selective completions, water production, and multi-well injection. Conceptual geologic and geocellular models of the depositional environments were developed based on data from Illinois Basin oil fields and gas storage sites. The geologic and geocellular models were generalized for use in other US sedimentary basins. An important aspect of this work is the development of conceptual geologic and geocellular models that reflect the uniqueness of each depositional environment. Different injection well completions methods were simulated to investigate methods of enhancing E in the presence of geologic heterogeneity specific to a depositional environment. Modeling scenarios included horizontal wells (length, orientation, and inclination), selective and dynamic completions, water production, and multiwell injection. A Geologic Storage Efficiency Calculator (GSECalc) was developed to calculate E from reservoir simulation output. Estimated E values were normalized to diminish their dependency on fluid relative permeability. Classifying depositional environments according to normalized baseline E ranges ranks fluvial deltaic and turbidite highest and shelf carbonate lowest. The estimated average normalized baseline E of turbidite, and shelf carbonate depositional environments are 42.5% and 13.1%, with corresponding standard deviations of 11.3%, and 3.10%, respectively. Simulations of different plume management techniques suggest that the horizontal well, multi-well injection with brine production from blanket vertical producers are the most efficient E enhancement strategies in seven of eight depositional environments; for the fluvial deltaic depositional environment, vertical well with blanket completions is the most efficient. This study estimates normalized baseline E ranges for eight depositional environments, which can be used to assess the CO 2 storage resource of candidate formations. This study also improves the general understanding of depositional environment’s influence on E. The lessons learned and results obtained from this study can be extrapolated to formations in other US basins with formations of similar depositional environments, which should be used to further refine regional and national storage resource estimates in future editions of the Carbon Utilization and Storage Atlas of the United States. Further study could consider the economic feasibility of the E enhancement strategies identified here.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Interactive web mapping tools and custom subsurface cross-sections for interdisciplinary geologic investigation

Using Python-based geospatial analytics, open-source web mapping technologies, geophysical data models, and subsurface stratigraphy models from the Regional Geology Geologic Framework Model database assembled by Los Alamos National Laboratory, we developed a suite of web-based geologic investigation tools to identify and understand subsurface structures and geophysical properties concerning salt and shale formations within the contiguous United States. Coupled with a web map interface, these tools allow for the interactive visualization of various geologic data and demonstrate the ability to quickly generate custom subsurface cross-sections, borehole charts, and diagrams for azimuthal orientation data. These capabilities were developed for stakeholder and researcher use to facilitate informed decision making for spent nuclear waste disposition. However, these capabilities provide a flexible model for a variety of subsurface investigation needs, and we have demonstrated this flexibility by adapting these tools to meet visualization needs for various subsurface models within a web-based platform.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Preliminary Long-term Safety Assessment for the Planned LLW Disposal Facility at Al-Tuwaitha, Iraq - 18142

Before 1991, Iraq had a significant nuclear program which encompassed ten nuclear sites spread out across the country. The largest nuclear site was located at the Al-Tuwaitha site near Baghdad where 18 nuclear facilities were concentrated. During the first Gulf War in 1991, all sites suffered significant damage from bombing and subsequent looting. Currently, the Ministry of Science and Technology is responsible for the ten heavily damaged nuclear sites and for the management of radioactive waste in Iraq in general. The task of decommissioning the damaged nuclear facilities and managing the resulting waste is being supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the European Commission (EC), and the United States (US). In the framework of its Instrument for Nuclear Safety Cooperation (INSC), the EC has launched a cooperation project to support the planned construction of an engineered repository for short-lived low- and intermediate level waste for the safe disposal of radioactive waste resulting from the decommissioning activities, as well as for waste from the continuing use of radioisotopes in medicine and the oil and gas industry in the country. The main objectives of this project, which was awarded to a Consortium led by NUKEM Technologies Engineering Services GmbH and joined by DBE Technology GmbH of Germany and JAVYS a.s. of Slovakia, are the development of an initial conceptual level basic design and preliminary safety assessment report (PSAR) and the subsequent detailed engineering design and supporting pre-construction safety assessment report (PCSAR). The current paper focuses on the development of the PSAR. Special focus is given to the long-term calculations and difficulties associated with the limited data base in regard to site characterization as well as the expected inventory for the future repository. Because of the ongoing security concerns in Iraq, the Ministry of Science and Technology had already selected the Al-Tuwaitha Site as the best suited location for the planned surface repository at the start of the project. Although some site characterization work had already been carried out prior to the start of the project, certain data for modelling the geology and hydrology of the site are still lacking. Missing data have been compensated by conservative assumptions and the assessment of alternative scenarios. Consequently, for the development of the simplified GoldSim{sup R} computer model used to carry out the long-term calculations supporting the PSAR, existing site information was used and, as appropriate, amended or replaced by conservative assumptions. Due to the nature of the waste, data on the expected inventory are associated with large uncertainties. Although certain estimates related to the future volume of the waste exist, little to no information is available on the expected radionuclide vector and respective activities. Therefore, the long-term calculations were carried out for a generic inventory including a broad range of radionuclides that are to be expected as being important considering the kind of waste to be disposed of in the facility. Based on the results of these calculations, the maximum total capacity of the facility was estimated and converted into activity limits for individual radionuclides that will be integrated into the existing general WAC for the facility. Compliance with these WAC will then guarantee the safety of the repository in regard to potential radionuclide releases via the groundwater pathway. In parallel to the determination of activity limits for the WAC, long-term calculations were carried using different estimates for the expected total activity to determine the general suitability of the proposed technical solution of the repository for receiving the total amount of Iraqi radioactive waste principally acceptable for surface disposal. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simulating the Cranfield geological carbon sequestration project with high-resolution static models and an accurate equation of state

In this study, a field-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection pilot project was conducted as part of the Southeast Regional Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) at Cranfield, Mississippi. We present higher-order finite element simulations of the compositional two-phase CO 2 -brine flow and transport during the experiment. High- resolution static models of the formation geology in the Detailed Area Study (DAS) located below the oil- water contact (brine saturated) are used to capture the impact of connected flow paths on breakthrough times in two observation wells. Phase behavior is described by the cubic-plus-association (CPA) equation of state, which takes into account the polar nature of water molecules. Parameter studies are performed to investigate the importance of Fickian diffusion, permeability heterogeneity, relative permeabilities, and capillarity. Simulation results for the pressure response in the injection well and the CO 2 breakthrough times at the observation wells show good agreement with the field data. For the high injection rates and short duration of the experiment, diffusion is relatively unimportant (high P clet numbers), while relative permeabilities have a profound impact on the pressure response. High-permeability pathways, created by fluvial deposits, strongly affect the CO 2 transport and highlight the importance of properly characterizing the formation heterogeneity in future carbon sequestration projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EGS Collab Earth Modeling: Integrated 3D Model of the Testbed

The EGS Collab project is conducting a series of stimulation and interwell flow tests in an intermediate scale (~10-20 m) testbed located on the 4850 level in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. The testbed consists of eight ~200 ft (~60 m) HQ-diameter (9.6 cm) boreholes that are drilled into the Poorman Formation from the western rib of the West Access Drift. Of the eight boreholes, one borehole is used as an injection/stimulation well, another sub-parallel borehole located about 10 m away from the injection well is used as a production well, and rest of the other boreholes are used as monitoring wells. For 3D visualization of the testbed as well as to provide spatially accurate and consistent parameter data for geomechanical and geophysical process modeling tasks, we are using Leapfrog Software (Seequent Limited). For analysis of fractures and creation of conditioned stochastic discrete fracture network (CS-DFN) model of the testbed, we are using FracMan (Golder Associates Inc.). As of mid-May 2019, the EGS Collab Leapfrog database contains the general layout of the drifts/shafts at the 4850 and 4100 levels; generalized geologic framework model of a domain that spans both the 4850 and 4100 levels; the CS-DFN of the testbed; and layouts of the EGS Collab testbed boreholes, kISMET testbed boreholes, and other existing boreholes at the 4850 level. This information has been obtained from the SURF Vulcan database, detailed laser scan and point surveys of borehole collar locations, directional surveys of borehole trajectories, and mapping of features in the drifts, boreholes, and cores. Similarly, other types of data that have been incorporated into the Leapfrog database include static features of the testbed such as natural discontinuities (e.g., fractures, weeps), location of monitoring instruments, and stimulation notches. Baseline geophysical characterization results (e.g., seismic, ERT, temperature, etc.) are also imported into the Leapfrog database. The location and size of packers, various point-source signals detected during stimulation and flow tests (e.g., temperature anomalies, micro-earthquake events, etc.) are also compiled in the database. All feature locations are reported using the local Homestake Mine coordinate system. In this paper, we present some of the geostructural characteristics as well as the status of the testbed as represented by Leapfrog/FracMan database/visualizations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗

Hydrothermal systems as environments for the emergence of life

Analysis of the chemical disequilibrium provided by the mixing of hydrothermal fluids and seawater in present-day systems indicates that organic synthesis from CO2 or carbonic acid is thermodynamically favoured in the conditions in which hyperthermophilic microorganisms are known to live. These organisms lower the Gibbs free energy of the chemical mixture by synthesizing many of the components of their cells. Primary productivity is enormous in hydrothermal systems because it depends only on catalysis of thermodynamically favourable, exergonic reactions. It follows that hydrothermal systems may be the most favourable environments for life on Earth. This fact makes hydrothermal systems logical candidates for the location of the emergence of life, a speculation that is supported by genetic evidence that modern hyperthermophilic organisms are closer to a common ancestor than any other forms of life. The presence of hydrothermal systems on the early Earth would correspond to the presence of liquid water. Evidence that hydrothermal systems existed early in the history of Mars raises the possibility that life may have emerged on Mars as well. Redox reactions between water and rock establish the potential for organic synthesis in and around hydrothermal systems. Therefore, the single most important parameter for modelling the geochemical emergence of life on the early Earth or Mars is the composition of the rock which hosts the hydrothermal system.

Non-NASA Center↗

Measurement and modelling of reactive transport in geological barriers for nuclear waste containment

Compacted clays are considered as excellent candidates for barriers to radionuclide transport in future repositories for nuclear waste due to their very low hydraulic permeability. Diffusion is the dominant transport mechanism, controlled by a nano-scale pore system. Assessment of the clays' long-term containment function requires adequate modelling of such pore systems and their evolution. Existing characterisation techniques do not provide complete pore space information for effective modelling, such as pore and throat size distributions and connectivity. Special network models for reactive transport are proposed here using the complimentary character of the pore space and the solid phase. Here, this balances the insufficient characterisation information and provides the means for future mechanical–physical–chemical coupling. The anisotropy and heterogeneity of clays is represented using different length parameters and percentage of pores in different directions. Resulting networks are described as mathematical graphs with efficient discrete calculus formulation of transport. Opalinus Clay (OPA) is chosen as an example. Experimental data for the tritiated water (HTO) and U(VI) diffusion through OPA are presented. Calculated diffusion coefficients of HTO and uranium species are within the ranges of the experimentally determined data in different clay directions. This verifies the proposed pore network model and validates that uranium complexes are diffusing as neutral species in OPA. In the case of U(VI) diffusion the method is extended to account for sorption and convection. Finally, rather than changing pore radii by coarse grained mathematical formula, physical sorption is simulated in each pore, which is more accurate and realistic.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗

The geostatistical approach for structural and stratigraphic framework analysis of offshore NW Bonaparte Basin, Australia

Geostatistics or statistical approach is based on the studies of temporal and spatial trend, which depend upon spatial relationships to model known information of variable(s) at unsampled locations. The statistical technique known as kriging was used for petrophycial and facies analysis, which help to assume spatial relationship to model the geological continuity between the known data and the unknown to produce a single best guess of the unknown. Kriging is also known as optimal interpolation technique, which facilitate to generate best linear unbiased estimation of each horizon. The idea is to construct a numerical model of the lithofacies and rock properties that honor available data and further integrate with interpreting seismic sections, techtonostratigraphy chart with sea level curve (short term) and regional tectonics of the study area to find the structural and stratigraphic growth history of the NW Bonaparte Basin. By using kriging technique the models were built which help to estimate different parameters like horizons, facies, and porosities in the study area. The variograms were used to determine for identification of spatial relationship between data which help to find the depositional history of the North West (NW) Bonaparte Basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A high-performance workflow system for subsurface simulation

Subsurface modeling applications typically neglect uncertainty in the conceptual models, past or future scenarios, and attribute most or all uncertainty to errors in model parameters. In this contribution, uncertainty in technetium-99 transport in a heterogeneous, deep vadose zone is explored with respect to the conceptual model using a next generation user environment called Akuna. Akuna provides a range of tools to manage environmental modeling projects, from managing simulation data to visualizing results from high-performance computational simulators. Core toolsets accessible through the user interface include model setup, grid generation, parameter estimation, and uncertainty quantification. The BC Cribs site at Hanford in southeastern Washington State is used to demonstrate Akuna capabilities. At the BC Cribs site, conceptualization of the system is highly uncertain because only sparse information is available for the geologic conceptual model, the physical and chemical properties of the sediments, and the history of waste disposal operations. Using the Akuna toolset to perform an analysis of conservative solute transport, significant prediction uncertainty in simulated concentrations is demonstrated by conceptual model variation. This demonstrates that conceptual model uncertainty is an important consideration in sparse data environments such as BC Cribs. It is also demonstrated that Akuna and the underlying toolset provides an integrated modeling environment that streamlines model setup, parameter optimization, and uncertainty analyses for high-performance computing applications.

Akuna↗

Integrated pre-feasibility study for CO 2 geological storage in the Cascadia Basin, offshore Washington State, British Columbia

The Cascadia CarbonSAFE project conducted a pre-feasibility study to evaluate technical and nontechnical aspects of storing 50 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide in a safe, ocean basalt reservoir offshore Washington State and British Columbia. Sub-seafloor basalts are very common on Earth and enable geological mineralization as a long-term storage mechanism, permanently sequestering the carbon in solid rock form. This project evaluated the offshore storage complex, developed potential industrial source/transport scenarios, built an inventory of existing geophysical/geological data and environmental monitoring capabilities, conducted laboratory studies and reservoir modeling to determine storage capacity, and analyzed economic factors, regulatory requirements, and project management risks. Our team included researchers at Columbia University in New York, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Washington, University of Victoria in British Columbia, University of California at Santa Cruz, and GHG Underground in Maine, as well as collaborators at University of Iceland in Reykjavik and University of Washington in Saint Louis. In the study region, large emitters (>100,000 MT/year) generate a total of approximately 40 MMT annually from stationary sources, such as power plants, refineries, ammonia production, and mineral processing plants. Five potential industry source/transport scenarios were identified (three in U.SA S. and two in Canada) to potentially provide 50 MMT of carbon dioxide to the offshore reservoir. One scenario included net carbon-negative sources that would reduce atmospheric levels. The inventory of existing data illustrated that basalt properties in the region are potentially beneficial for long-term storage. Permeability is on the order of 0.1 to 1 Darcies within the uppermost 600 m of ocean crust and density-derived porosity reaches 10–20% in thin layers that provide act as flow channels and provide access to porous and permeable basalt. Fine-grained sediments overlying basalt provide a low-permeability barrier separating the storage reservoir from the overlying ocean. Subsurface monitoring of the storage complex benefits from a unique opportunity close proximity of to the nearby NEPTUNE cabled seafloor observatory, which actively transmits data to shore and could be used to monitor reservoir properties. Injection pressure changes, reservoir chemistry, seismicity, well head corrosion, and potential leakage monitoring would be feasible in real time. Using existing data and published models, the STOMP-CO 2 modeling code developed at PNNL was used to simulate carbon dioxide injection, storage, and mineralization in the reservoir. Preliminary simulations indicate that a 50 MMT carbon dioxide plume injected over a 20-year period remains well within the reservoir area, both laterally and vertically, for at least a 50-year period of post-injection monitoring. Laboratory studies on core samples from Cascadia measured dissolution rates in CO 2 –basalt–seawater mixtures and indicated large variability in rates with the potential for complete mineralization. Compared to published data, the dissolution rate measured in these samples is faster, decreasing the time until full conversion to carbonate minerals would occur. Adding geochemical reactivity in the STOMP-CO 2 model indicates that carbon dioxide would be fully converted to carbonate minerals in 135 years or less after injection ceases. The project assessed the viability and costs for the five scenarios using either dedicated offshore pipelines or shipping vessels. Carbon dioxide capture costs were not considered. Shipping incurred lower upfront CAPEX costs, and because most viable sources were located near the shore and waterways, shipping is preferred; no dedicated carbon dioxide pipelines exist in the region. The project also considered potential risks from mixed-use impacts on surrounding lands and ocean areas, such as active use by commercial and recreational fisherman, and other community considerations in planning for public engagement in the future. Other project risks were identified, including project management, permitting and compliance, and financing, as well as technical issues such as long-term instrumentation, plume migration, and model development. Geological concerns like reservoir permeability, seal, and induced seismicity held relatively low risk. The regulatory framework for offshore storage in the U.S. and Canada may be covered by general legal/regulatory programs, but is not yet fully defined. Existing programs appear to restrict the transportation of carbon dioxide across national boundaries (e.g., Canada to U.S.) and its sub-seabed disposal in some circumstances. Our assessment suggests that developing specific and separate pilot projects will help to advance the technical feasibility and regulatory requirements in each country, and lessons learned from such activities may be transferable elsewhere around the globe.

42 ENGINEERING↗