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At least 361 records · Page 20

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coordinate-Based Seismic Interpolation in Irregular Land Survey: A Deep Internal Learning Approach

Physical and budget constraints often result in irregular sampling, which complicates accurate subsurface imaging. Preprocessing approaches, such as missing trace or shot interpolation, are typically employed to enhance seismic data in such cases. Recently, deep learning has been used to address the trace interpolation problem at the expense of large amounts of training data to adequately represent typical seismic events. Nonetheless, most research in this area has focused on trace reconstruction, with little attention having been devoted to shot interpolation. Furthermore, existing methods assume regularly spaced receivers/sources failing in approximating seismic data from real (irregular) surveys. This work presents a novel shot gather interpolation approach which uses a continuous coordinate-based representation of the acquired seismic wavefield parameterized by a neural network. The proposed unsupervised approach, which we call coordinate-based seismic interpolation (CoBSI), enables the prediction of specific seismic characteristics in irregular land surveys without using external data during neural network training. Importantly, experimental results on real and synthetic 3-D data validate the ability of the proposed method to estimate continuous smooth seismic events in the time-space and frequency-wavenumber domains, improving sparsity or low-rank-based interpolation methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Flexibility Estimation and Control of Thermostatically Controlled Loads with Lock Time for Regulation Service

A virtual battery model is a simple and general method to quantify aggregate flexibility from thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), enabling grid operators to effectively coordinate a large number of flexible building loads with supplyside resources in power systems. Lockout controls are designed to avoid wear and tear resulting from short-cycling of hardware. The lock on/off time could significantly affect aggregate flexibility from TCLs to provide ancillary services and may even fail control algorithms designed without considering the lock time constraints. This paper focuses on flexibility estimation and control design for TCLs with lock time constraints to provide frequency regulation service. We first investigate the potential impacts of lock time on TCLs’ aggregate flexibility and control performance. Both control-dependent and control-independent power bounds are derived, based on either previous TCL switching operations or regulation signals. While the control-dependent method provides aggregate flexibility for a given control method, the control-independent method calculates the theoretical maximum of power bounds. Two control algorithms are proposed to better distribute flexibility over time and thereby improve signal tracking performance. The proposed methods are illustrated and validated through simulations.

Wang, Peng↗

Long-Term Infrasound Sensor Calibration and Characterization

Previous testing has shown that infrasound sensors deployed in the field can exhibit notable deviations from their nominal, lab-based calibrations. These variations may be due to changes in environmental conditions, long-term sensor drift, or other unresolved features. In early 2018, we installed two identical infrasound elements with five infrasound sensors at each element (Chaparral M50A, Chaparral M64LN, CEA/Martec MB2005, CEA/Seismowave MB3a, and Hyperion IFS-5113A). These sensors were accepted or under consideration for use in the International Monitoring System network of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Each element had all sensors connected to a single digitizer and port to the atmosphere. We also recorded instrument enclosure air temperature and humidity and external air temperature. Using the MB2005 as the reference, we examine the relative sensor response (both magnitude and phase) as a function of time and frequency and compare it with quarterly laboratory calibrations and environmental conditions. Here, we find that the magnitude response for all sensors exhibits some variability in both the lab and field, with the amplitude variations often >5%. The field-based variations are more severe and occur on both long-term (months) and short-term (hours) timescales. Short-term variability correlates with changes in environmental conditions and is considerable (up to 25%) for the Chaparral M50A and noticeable (∼5%) for the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) MB3a. Long-term magnitude variability for the Chaparral M50A was up to 50% and does not clearly correlate with environmental conditions. The other sensors show some long-term magnitude offsets, but they have relatively stable responses in the conditions we examined. The MB3a also displays some frequency-dependent magnitude variability and shows a minor dependence on temperature. Phase estimates are stable and near zero for all sensors tested. These results strongly suggest sensor response and variability due to environmental conditions should be considered in future infrasound data interpretation and sensor selection and development.

Fee, David↗

Discovery of 15 A-F Main Sequence Pulsating Star Candidates

Delta Scuti stars, spanning spectral types A to F with masses between 1.5 and 2.5 solar masses, exhibit a complex mix of radial and non-radial pressure modes. This study focuses on 15 Delta Scuti, Gamma Doradus, and Hybrid candidate stars using TESS satellite photometry data with a time series of exposures ranging from 20 to 600 seconds across different sky regions. Employing the prewhitening technique via fast Fourier transforms, significant frequencies are extracted from light curves. Three approximation methods are used to estimate critical stellar parameters such as density, radius, and mass. This research also verifies the variability of these stars, which are currently not classified as variable in databases like SIMBAD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emerging mobile lidar technology to study boundary layer winds influenced by operating turbines

The development of a microjoule-class pulsed Doppler lidar and deployment of this compact system on mobile platforms such as aircraft, ships, or trucks have opened a new opportunity to characterize the dynamics of complex mesoscale wind flows. The PickUp-based Mobile Atmospheric Sounder (PUMAS) truck-based lidar system was recently used during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) to assess the general structure of boundary layer (BL) wind and turbulence around wind turbines in central Oklahoma. Wind speed profiles averaged over PUMAS transects influenced by the operating turbines (waked flow) show a 1–2 m s −1 reduction compared to mean undisturbed (free flow) wind speed profiles. Spatial variability in wind speed was observed in time–height cross-sections at different distances from turbines. The wind speeds were about 9–12 m s −1 at 6 km distance compared to 5–7 m s −1 at the transects near the turbines. The PUMAS dataset from AWAKEN demonstrated the capability of the mobile Doppler lidar system to document spatial variability in wind flows at different distances from wind turbines and obtain quantitative estimates of wind speed reduction in the waked flow. The high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of the horizontal and vertical winds provide a new approach for characterizing dynamic processes critical for wind farm wake analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Results from the Alfven Eigenmode Active Diagnostic during the 2019-2020 JET deuterium campaign

This paper presents results of extensive analysis of mode excitation observed during the operation of the Alfven Eigenmode Active Diagnostic (AEAD) in the JET tokamak during the 2019-2020 deuterium campaign. Six of eight toroidally spaced antennas, each with independent power and phasing, were successful in actively exciting stable MHD modes in 479 plasmas. In total, 4768 magnetic resonances were detected with up to fourteen fast magnetic probes. In this work, we present the calculations of resonant frequencies f0, damping rates \gamma < 0, and toroidal mode numbers n, spanning the parameter range f0 = 30 - 250 kHz, -\gamma = 0 - 13 kHz, and |n| < 30. In general, good agreement is seen between the resonant and the calculated toroidal Alfven Eigenmode frequencies, and between the toroidal mode numbers applied by the AEAD and estimated of the excited resonances. We note several trends in the database: the probability of resonance detection decreases with plasma current and external heating power; the normalized damping rate increases with edge safety factor but decreases with external heating. These results provide key information to prepare future experimental campaigns and to better understand the physics of excitation and damping of Alfven Eigenmodes in the presence of alpha particles during the upcoming DT campaign, thereby extrapolating with confidence to future tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Penetration Through Slots in Overmoded Cavities

A resonant cavity undergoes three distinct behaviors with increasing frequency: 1) fundamental modes, localized in frequency with well defined modal distribution; 2) undermoded region, where modes are still separated, but are sufficiently perturbed by small imperfections that their spectral positions (and distributions) are statistical in nature; and 3) overmoded region, where modes overlap, field distributions follow stochastic distributions, and the slot acts as if in free space. Understanding the penetration through slots in the overmoded region is of great interest, and is the focus of this article. Since full-wave solvers may not be able to provide a timely answer for very high frequencies due to a lack of memory and/or computation resources, we develop bounding methods to estimate worst-case average and maximum fields within the cavity. Finally, after discussing the bounding formulation, we compare its results to full-wave simulations at the first, second, and third resonance supported by the slot in the case of a cylindrical cavity. Note that the bounding formulation indicates that results are nearly independent of cavity shape: only the cavity volume, frequency, and cavity quality factor affect the overmoded region, making this formulation a powerful tool to assess electromagnetic interference and electromagnetic compatibility effects within cavities.

overmoded cavity↗

An automated and portable method for selecting an optimal GPU frequency

Power consumption poses a significant challenge in current and emerging graphics processing unit (GPU) enabled high-performance computing systems. In modern GPUs, dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) appears to be a reliable control to regulate power consumption and performance. However, the DVFS design space is large - hence, brute-force approaches are infeasible to select the optimal frequency. Furthermore, no single frequency can be universally optimal for applications with varying computational intensities. Thus, the application's complexity and the availability of a wide range of frequency settings are a challenge in selecting the optimal frequency configuration for a given GPU workload. To that end, this paper proposes a systematic approach that consists of three steps. The feature characterization study identifies the fine-grain GPU utilization metrics that influence the power consumption and execution time of a given workload. To understand the performance, power, and energy consumption behaviors of a workload across GPU's DVFS design space, we derived analytical power and performance models using the identified fine-grain features. Here, it is shown that the same set of GPU utilization metrics can estimate both the power consumption and execution time while being agnostic of changes to frequency and input sizes. Applying a power control with the single objective of reducing power may cause performance degradation, leading to more energy consumption. A multi-objective approach is proposed to select the optimal GPU DVFS configuration for a workload that reduces power consumption with negligible degradation in performance. The evaluation was conducted using SPEC ACCEL benchmarks and three real applications - NAMD LAMMPS, and LSTM on NVIDIA GV100, GA100, and AMD MI210 GPUs. On average, real applications showed 29.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 5.2% on GA100 and 22.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 4.7% on GV100. Moreover, the proposed models are portable to real applications, GPU architectures, and vendors, and require metric collection at only the default frequency rather than all supported DVFS configurations. Additionally, we conducted a comparison between our models and the GPU assembly instructions (PTX)-based static models. The results revealed a significant reduction in the average error rates, with a decrease from 19.7% to 3.1% for power models and from 29.4% to 5.2% for performance models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Overall chilled water system energy consumption modeling and optimization

The emergence of increasingly affordable variable-speed drive technology has changed the approach used to control chilled water systems equipped with these drives. The purpose of this research was to develop an integrated chilled water modeling technique that can determine the optimal system setpoints and estimate the energy saving potential of chiller system. The chiller system equipped with Variable Frequency Drives (VFDs) on cooling tower fans and condenser water pumps. To accomplish the objective, physical component models of the centrifugal chiller, cooling tower and condenser water pump were established with the goal of incorporating the system’s condenser water flow rate and cooling tower fan speeds as optimization variables. Furthermore, a cooling load prediction algorithm was developed using a multiple non-linear regression model to approximate the building’s cooling load subject to a range of environmental conditions. The inputs and outputs of the individual component models were linked to estimate how adjusting the cooling tower fan and condenser water pump speed would influence the system’s comprehensive performance. Here, the overall system model was then optimized using a generalized reduced gradient optimization algorithm to determine the potential energy savings through speed control with VFDs and to ascertain a control logic strategy for the building automation system to operate the heating and cooling system. A case-study was performed on a single chiller system at a museum and the model was calibrated according to logged data collected over four months. Results showed that for the system analyzed, the energy saving of optimizing the cooling tower fan system was found to be 12–15%, while the energy saving potential of optimizing the condenser water pump with the cooling tower fan was negligible. Additionally, comparing different cooling tower fan control strategies showed that a wet-bulb approach-based cooling tower control strategy was shown to have the highest correlation to the optimized fan speed with an R 2 of 0.924.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Feasibility Study on Use of an Accelerometer to Measure the Dynamic Forces in Turning

Metal cutting is a highly dynamic process that generates continuously varying forces. Measurement of these forces is essential to characterizing a cutting process and to fully utilize the machine tool. A force dynamometer is often used to measure these varying forces; however, it is limited by the natural frequency of the sensor and can sometimes be hard to set up on a machine. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the dynamic component of the cutting force using an accelerometer placed directly below the cutting edge. The placement of the sensor helps achieving better signal to noise ratio (S/N). The cutting tool is modelled as a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system relative to the workpiece and dynamic loads are experimentally simulated on it. The measured acceleration is numerically integrated to obtain velocity and deflection, which along with the natural frequency (ω n ) and damping ratio (ζ), is used to predict the dynamic load using the system equation. The dynamic forces tested over a wide range of frequencies, show good agreement with the data from simultaneous dynamometer measurement and the force estimated using the proposed method. The study shows the feasibility of this method in a real cutting scenario and the capability to apply it to a multi DOF system. One major limitation is the inability to capture the static or quasi-static component of the cutting force.

Cutting vibrations↗

Frequency Shaping Control for Weakly-Coupled Grid-Forming IBRs

Here, we consider the problem of controlling the frequency of low-inertia power systems via inverter-based resources (IBRs) that are weakly connected to the grid. We propose a novel grid-forming control strategy, the so-called frequency shaping control, that aims to shape the frequency response of synchronous generators (SGs) to load perturbations so as to efficiently arrest sudden frequency drops. Our solution relaxes several existing assumptions in the literature and is able to navigate trade-offs between peak power requirements and maximum frequency deviations. Finally, we analyze the robustness to imperfect knowledge of network parameters, while particularly highlighting the importance of accurate estimation of these parameters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimation of solar photovoltaic energy curtailment due to volt–watt control

The widespread deployment of autonomous inverter‐based solutions for mitigating voltage and frequency excursions caused by high‐penetration photovoltaic (PV) systems has drawn increased attention due to their potential impact on PV production. It is now important to quantify the amount of solar energy curtailed as a result of the activation of inverter‐based grid support functions (GSFs). This study proposes a methodology for estimating the impact of volt–watt on customer PV energy curtailment using smart meter voltage data. This method estimates maximum possible curtailment for a given volt–watt curve based on the customer smart meter voltage during the time period of interest. This study compares the proposed methodology with field measurements using irradiance and customer inverter data from Hawaii as well as with results from a previous simulation‐driven study on the impact of advanced inverter GSF activation on PV energy curtailment. Results show that the proposed method for estimating lost PV production caused by volt–watt control aligns reasonably well with field measurements and computer simulations for hundreds of customers. The proposed method could be used to estimate customer energy curtailment, which could inform future compensation mechanisms for utilities leveraging customer‐sited resources to mitigate high voltage and defer infrastructure upgrades.

Emmanuel, Michael↗

The Tianlai dish array low-z surveys forecasts

Here, we present the science case for surveys with the Tianlai dish array interferometer tuned to the [1300, 1400] MHz frequency range. Starting from a realistic generation of mock visibility data according to the survey strategy, we reconstruct maps of the sky and perform foreground subtraction. We estimate the level of residuals from imperfect subtraction, mostly due to mode mixing, i.e. distortions in the reconstructed 3D maps due to frequency-dependent instrument response. We show that a survey of the North Celestial Polar cap during a year of observations, covering an area of 150 deg 2 , would reach a sensitivity of $1.5-2 mK per 1 MHz x 0.25 2 deg 2 voxel and be marginally impacted by mode mixing. Tianlai would be able to detect ~10 nearby massive H i clumps as well as a very strong cross-correlation signal of 21 cm intensity maps with the North Celestial Cap Survey optical galaxies. We also studied the performance of a mid-latitude survey, covering ~ 1500 deg 2 overlapping the SDSS footprint. Despite a higher noise level for the mid-latitude survey, as well as significant distortions due to mode mixing, Tianlai would be able to detect a highly significant cross-correlation between the 21 cm signal and the Sloan spectroscopic galaxy sample. Using the extragalactic signals measured from either or both of these surveys, and comparing them with simulations such as those presented here will make it possible to assess the impact of various instrumental imperfections on the Tianlai dish array performance. This would pave the way for future intensity mapping surveys with higher sensitivity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast estimation of the look-elsewhere effect using Gaussian random fields

Abstract We discuss the use of Gaussian random fields to estimate the look-elsewhere effect correction. We show that Gaussian random fields can be used to model the null-hypothesis significance maps from a large set of statistical problems commonly encountered in physics, such as template matching and likelihood ratio tests. Some specific examples are searches for dark matter using pixel arrays, searches for astronomical transients, and searches for fast-radio bursts. Gaussian random fields can be sampled efficiently in the frequency domain, and the excursion probability can be fitted with these samples to extend any estimation of the look-elsewhere effect to lower p values. In addition, in cases where the Gaussian random field is stationary and the parameter space is Euclidean, the look-elsewhere effect correction can be computed analytically. We demonstrate these methods using two example template matching problems. Finally, we apply these methods to estimate the trial factor of a $$4^3$$ 4 3 accelerometer array for the detection of dark matter tracks in the Windchime project. When a global significance of $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ is required, the estimated trial factor for such an accelerometer array is $$10^{14}$$ 10 14 for a one-second search, and $$10^{22}$$ 10 22 for a 1-year search.

Qin, Juehang (ORCID:0000000182288949)↗

Boundary Layer Climatology at ARM Southern Great Plains

Operational since 1992, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) southern great plains (SGP) site at Oklahoma, USA has become a reference research site for meteorological studies. Due to an open data policy the ARM data are used by researchers all over the world. In this report, we review the long-term climatology of the atmospheric boundary layer, SGP instrumentations, the site and some site-specific atmospheric conditions which potentially effect wind turbines within the region. As the atmospheric boundary layer is bounded and influenced by the surface, observations of surface radiation components and heat fluxes are crucial in understanding land-atmosphere interactions. The entrainment of air, updrafts, downdrafts and boundary layer height characteristics is needed for understanding the structure and growth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, measurements from both surface in-situ and remote sensing observations at SGP provide an overall climatology and their interactions from surface up to the boundary layer. Measurements from a 60 m meteorological tower, surface flux stations, disdrometers, soil temperature and moisture flux plates, coherent Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, radiosondes, and satellite data at SGP central facility were analyzed. All the measurements were generally within a few square kilometers of each other at the central facility. This report focuses on data from January 2010 to June 2020 at SGP central facility. The various sections describe the ARM SGP site and surrounding wind turbines; in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation used in the report; provides mathematical equations to analyze fluxes, turbulence and other boundary layer parameters; a climatological analysis of surface winds, fluxes and thermodynamic parameters for several years; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; an analysis of the boundary layer winds and direction from a Doppler lidar; multi-year turbulence estimates through the boundary layer from a Doppler lidar; atmospheric boundary layer water vapor and relative humidity profiles from Raman lidar; cloud base height and boundary layer height from multiple sensors and satellite data; and finally site specific atmospheric conditions, such as nocturnal low-level jets. Diurnal, seasonal and yearly variations of surface, sub-surface and boundary layer quantities, such as wind speed, direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, soil temperature, and various atmospheric fluxes at SGP showed distinct trends useful for focused modeling studies. The applicability of surface similarity theory on ARM SGP data is also evaluated, which showed northerly flows are aligned with MO theory estimates compared to southerly flows. Boundary layer winds and direction profiles for several years from a Doppler lidar shows a consistent presence of a nocturnal low-level jet and predominant southerly wind directions through the boundary layer at SGP. The inter-annual variability at SGP is low (<3.5%), with a mean annual wind speed of approximately 7 m s -1 at 100 m above ground level. Boundary layer turbulence and moisture transport from Doppler and Raman lidars are evaluated, which provides evidence of increased water vapor mass flux into the great plains during nocturnal low-level jets. The moisture flux from nocturnal low-level jets is observed to be maximum during summer periods. A novel machine learning algorithm is implemented to accurately estimate the planetary boundary layer height, providing further insights into growth and destruction of the convective boundary layer height during various seasons and land-atmosphere conditions. The high frequency of low-level clouds during winter, spring and fall seasons is validated using the multi-sensor array and satellite estimates of cloud top height. Satellite vegetative fraction data provides insight into seasonal surface roughness and vegetation variability around SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electromagnetic Fireworks: Fast Radio Bursts from Rapid Reconnection in the Compressed Magnetar Wind

One scenario for the generation of fast radio bursts (FRBs) is magnetic reconnection in a current sheet of the magnetar wind. Compressed by a strong magnetic pulse induced by a magnetar flare, the current sheet fragments into a self-similar chain of magnetic islands. Time-dependent plasma currents at their interfaces produce coherent radiation during their hierarchical coalescence. We investigate this scenario using 2D radiative relativistic particle-in-cell simulations to compute the efficiency of the coherent emission and to obtain frequency scalings. Consistent with expectations, a fraction of the reconnected magnetic field energy, f ~ 0.002, is converted to packets of high-frequency fast magnetosonic waves, which can escape from the magnetar wind as radio emission. In agreement with analytical estimates, we find that magnetic pulses of 10 47 erg s –1 can trigger relatively narrowband GHz emission with luminosities of approximately 10 42 erg s –1 , sufficient to explain bright extragalactic FRBs. The mechanism provides a natural explanation for a downward frequency drift of burst signals, as well as the ~100 ns substructure recently detected in FRB 20200120E.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗