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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Resolving Severe Elemental Isobaric Interferences with a Combined Atomic and Molecular Ionization Source - Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry Approach: The 87Sr and 87Rb Geochronology Pair

Many fields of basic and applied sciences, including geochronology, astronomy, metabolism, nutrition and forensics rely on the ability of mass spectrometry to make isotope ratio measurements with a high degree of certainty. The inability to resolve difficult isobaric interferences still plagues certain measurements of this type. A combined atomic and molecular (CAM) ionization source has been interfaced to a high-field Orbitrap mass spectrometer in an effort to alleviate severe atomic, isobaric interferences. Specifically, this work examines the geochronological-significant 87Sr and 87Rb isotope pair. The mass difference between 87Sr and 87Rb is ~0.3 mDa, requiring a minimum resolving power (R = m/?m) of ~290,000, a value ~30X higher than available with conventional (sector-field) elemental mass spectrometers. Under ultra-high resolution conditions, Sr isotope ratio accuracy and precision were evaluated using NIST Sr SRM 987, yielding precision values of <0.1% relative standard deviation (RSD) for the major isotopes and a calculated LOD of 2 pg mL-1, equivalent to 120 fg Sr for a 60 µL injection. In addition to manipulating the signal transient length, which controls the Orbitrap resolving power, the total number of ions in the electrostatic trap and the relative ion populations (i.e. the 87Sr/87Rb concentration ratio), were found to be influential towards resolving the isobaric species. Ultimately, the 87Sr and 87Rb isotopes were baseline resolved with a calculated mass resolution of >1.7 M. At equal 87Sr and 87Rb intensities, the 87Sr/86Sr was measured as 0.71294 (an error of 0.37%) with a precision of 0.097 %RSD, clearly reflecting the alleviation of the isobaric interference.

Hoegg, Edward D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive Combined with Paper Spray Mass Spectrometry for Low-Cost Collection and Analysis of Drug Residues

Illicit drug use causes over half a million deaths worldwide every year. Drugs of abuse are commonly smuggled through customs and border checkpoints and, increasingly, through parcel delivery services. Improved methods for detection of trace drug residues from surfaces are needed. Such methods should be robust, fieldable, sensitive, and capable of detecting a wide range of drugs. In this work, commercially produced paper with a pressure-sensitive adhesive coating was utilized for the collection and analysis of trace drug residues by paper spray mass spectrometry (MS). This modified substrate was used to combine sample collection of drug residues from surfaces with rapid detection using a single paper spray ticket. The all-in-one ticket was used to probe different surfaces commonly encountered in forensic work including clothing, cardboard, glass, concrete, asphalt, and aluminum. A total of 10 drugs (acetyl fentanyl, fentanyl, clonazolam, cocaine, heroin, ketamine, methamphetamine, methylone, U-47700, and XLR-11) were evaluated and found to be detectable in the picogram range using a benchtop mass spectrometer and in the low nanogram range using a portable ion trap MS. Finally, the novel approach demonstrates a simple yet effective sampling strategy, allowing for rapid identification from difficult surfaces via paper spray mass spectrometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Machine Learning-Driven Mass Spectrometric Identification of Trichothecenes in the Absence of Standard Reference Materials

While a significant body of work exists on the detection of commonly known trichothecene toxins, biological, environmental, and other transformational processes can generate many under-characterized and unknown modified trichothecenes. Lacking both analytical reference standards and associated mass spectral databases, identification of these modified compounds reflects both a challenge and a critical gap from forensic and public health perspectives. Here we report here the application of machine learning (ML) techniques toward identification of discriminative fragment ions from mass spectrometric data that can be exploited to detect evidence of type A and B trichothecenes. The goal of this work is to establish a new method for the identification of unknown, though structurally similar trichothecenes, by leveraging objective ML techniques. Discriminative fragments derived from a series of gradient-boosted machine learners are then used to develop ML-driven precursor ion scan (PIS) methods on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (QQQ) for screening of “unknown unknown” trichothecenes. Specifically, we apply the PIS method to a laboratory-synthesized trichothecene, a first step in demonstrating the power of alternative, machine learning-driven mass spectrometric methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trace Actinide Signatures of a Bulk Neptunium Sample

In nuclear forensic analyses, measurements of actinide elements in a sample can assist with identifying interdicted or unknown materials. While these radiochemical signatures have been extensively investigated in uranium materials, less is known about bulk neptunium samples. This paper describes the measurement of trace actinide concentrations and isotopic profiles in a 237 Np oxide sample. Uranium, plutonium, americium, and curium concentrations and isotopic profiles in the sample were determined and deemed potentially useful for distinguishing different sources of 237 Np. Furthermore, several different potential radiochronometry systems were also investigated; discordant results indicate that the Np sample was never completely purified of other actinide elements, or that subsequent contamination of the sample occurred. Few prior studies of neptunium materials have been reported, and these data suggest that trace actinide constituents could provide unique signatures to identify material out of regulatory control.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Gas-Phase Ion Reactivity of 50 Elements with NO and the Direct Application for 239 Pu in Complex Matrices Using ICP-MS/MS

Understanding the reactivity of metal cations with various reaction gases in ICP-MS/MS is important to determine the best gas to use for a given analyte/interference pair. In this study, nitric oxide (NO) was investigated as the reaction gas following previous experimental designs. The reactions with 50 elements were investigated to examine periodic trends in reactivity, validate theoretical modeling of reaction enthalpies as a method to screen reactant gases, and provide a baseline for potential in-line gas separation methods. ICP-MS/MS studies involving actinides are typically limited to Th, U and Pu, with analyses of Np and Am rarely reported in the literature. To date, only two previous methods have investigated the use of NO in ICP-MS/MS analyses. To showcase the utility of NO, a method was developed to measure 239 Pu in the presence of environmental matrix constituent and other actinides, like what could be expected from post-detonation debris, with no chemical separation prior to analysis. 239 Pu + was reacted to form 239 Pu 16 O + , eliminating interferences derived from the sample matrix by measuring 239 Pu + intensity at m/z = 255 ( 239 Pu 16 O + ). To validate NO for 238 U 1 H + interference removal in environmental matrices, standard reference materials were diluted to 1 mg per gram of solution and spiked to 0.05 pg/g of 239 Pu and 1 µg/g 238 U (Pu/U = 5 x 10 -8 ). Measured 239 Pu concentrations were within 6% of the spiked value. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that reliable 239 Pu measurements can be made at levels relevant to nuclear forensics without the need for extensive chemical matrix separation prior to analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of ATONA Amplifiers to the Measurement of Uranium Isotopic Ratios by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry

Uranium isotopic composition can provide valuable information about the history and provenance of a nuclear material; therefore, uranium isotopic analyses are frequently made in the nuclear forensics, safeguards, and environmental monitoring communities. These measurements have always presented challenges due to the extreme variability in the relative abundance between the major ( 235 U, 238 U) and minor ( 233 U, 234 U, 236 U) isotopes of uranium. Here, the recently developed ATONA (Atto- to Nano-Amp) amplification system paired with Faraday cup detectors has a large dynamic range and low noise floor making it ideal for measuring uranium isotopic ratios in materials of both natural and anthropogenic origin. A wide variety of certified reference materials were analyzed to investigate the utility of the ATONA amplification system for determining uranium isotopic composition in samples ranging from depleted to highly enriched. The ATONA amplifiers provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement in external reproducibility over 10 11 Ω amplifiers when measuring the minor 234 U/ 238 U ratio in isotopically natural and depleted samples and when paired with a secondary electron multiplier can measure very low relative abundance uranium isotopes (i.e., 236 U).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Flow-through Cell for Ultrasonic Extraction (UE)─Single Particle (SP)─ICP-MS─an Approach for Nano/Microparticle Elemental and Isotopic Analysis

Nanotechnology is a salient part of the scientific landscape, and analytical approaches are rapidly evolving to enable small-scale characterization of nano- and microparticle compositions and impurities. Here, a flow-through sonicating cell was developed for direct particle extraction from a silicon wafer and integrated with an inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) for subsequent elemental and isotopic characterization of the released particles. Ultrasonic extraction (UE)─single particle (SP)─ICP-MS offers controlled particle mobilization from solid substrates and allows for increased sample throughput by eliminating the need for pre-extraction of particles and decreasing sample preparation steps. Coupling this device to an ICP-MS with a time-of-flight (TOF) mass analyzer, it is possible to distinguish unique isotopic compositions of the particles. Both tungsten and nickel isotopically tagged particles, which were deposited on Si wafers, are presented here with analysis via UE─SP─ICP-MS. This approach could support efforts in the fields of particle synthesis, nuclear safeguards and forensics, environmental monitoring, and semiconductor industries in which the detection of particles from substrates and wafers is critical.

Paul, Molly [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000009672055)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning to generate in silico chemical property libraries and candidate molecules for small molecule identification in complex samples

Comprehensive and unambiguous identification of small molecules in complex samples will revolutionize our understanding of the role of metabolites in biological systems. Existing and emerging technologies have enabled measurement of chemical properties of molecules in complex mixtures and, in concert, are sensitive enough to resolve even stereoisomers. Despite these experimental advances, small molecule identification is inhibited by (i) chemical reference libraries (e.g. mass spectra, collision cross section, and other measurable property libraries) representing <1% of known molecules, limiting the number of possible identifications, and (ii) the lack of a method to generate candidate matches directly from experimental features (i.e. without a library). To this end, we developed a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn a continuous numerical, or latent, representation of molecular structure to expand reference libraries for small molecule identification. We extended the VAE to include a chemical property decoder, trained as a multitask network, in order to shape the latent representation such that it assembles according to desired chemical properties. The approach is unique in its application to metabolomics and small molecule identification, with its focus on properties that can be obtained from experimental measurements (m/z, CCS) paired with its training paradigm, which involved a cascade of transfer learning iterations. First, molecular representation is learned from a large dataset of structures with m/z labels. Next, in silico property values are used to continue training, as experimental property data is limited. Finally, the network is further refined by being trained with the experimental data. This allows the network to learn as much as possible at each stage, enabling success with progressively smaller datasets without overfitting. Once trained, the network can be used to predict chemical properties directly from structure, as well as generate candidate structures with desired chemical properties. Our approach is orders of magnitude faster than first-principles simulation for CCS property prediction. Additionally, the ability to generate novel molecules along manifolds, defined by chemical property analogues, positions DarkChem as highly useful in a number of application areas, including metabolomics and small molecule identification, drug discovery and design, chemical forensics, and beyond.

Colby, Sean M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Trivalent Actinide and Lanthanide Recovery by Diglycolamide Resin from Savannah River Site’s Mark-18A Targets

The Savannah River National Laboratory is implementing a separation flowsheet to recover rare isotopes and transplutonium elements from irradiated 242 Pu targets known as Mark-18A targets. The Mark-18A targets contain the United States’ supply of nonseparated 244 Pu, which has a wide range of applications from nuclear forensics to production of superheavy elements such as flerovium. The targets also contain hundreds of grams of heavy curium ( 246–248 Cm), which is used as a target material for 252 Cf production. This work investigates the use of diglycolomide resin (DGA Resin) to recover valuable trivalent actinides from the Mark-18A targets. Batch contact experiments were performed on a representative simulant to determine mass loadings. Furthermore, the resin showed an overall capacity of 11 mg/mL for a mixed metal matrix (Zr and La–Gd). Column experiments showed chromatographic separation with transition-metal breakthroughs occurring first followed by the lanthanide series La–Gd. The experiments showed that lanthanide breakthrough occurred after 11 mg/mL mass loading was reached on the column with the mixed metal matrix. A radiological column experiment with an in-line UV/vis cell was able to detect Nd breakthrough just prior to 241 Am breakthrough. Implementing an in-line UV/vis cell into full-scale Mark-18A target processing will be used to limit breakthrough of trivalent actinides recovered from the targets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Formation of Fully Stoichiometric, Oxidation-State Pure Neptunium and Plutonium Dioxides from Molecular Precursors

Amidate-based ligands (N-(tert-butyl)isobutyramide, ITA) bind κ 2 to form homoleptic, 8-coordinate complexes with tetravalent 237 Np (Np(ITA) 4 , 1-Np) and 242 Pu (Pu(ITA) 4 , 1-Pu). These compounds complete an isostructural series from Th, U–Pu and allow for the direct comparison between many of the early actinides with stable tetravalent oxidation states by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and single crystal X-ray diffraction (SCXRD). The molecular precursors are subjected to controlled thermolysis under mild conditions with the exclusion of exogenous air and moisture, facilitating the removal of the volatile organic ligands and ligand byproducts. The preformed metal–oxygen bond in the precursor, as well as the metal oxidation state, are maintained through the decomposition, forming fully stoichiometric, oxidation-state pure NpO 2 and PuO 2 . Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) elemental mapping supported the evaluation of these high-purity materials. This chemistry is applicable to a wide range of metals, including actinides, with accessible tetravalent oxidation states, and provides a consistent route to analytical standards of importance to the field of nuclear nonproliferation, forensics, and fundamental studies.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inelastic Neutron Spectra of Uranium Tetrafluoride Hydrate, UF 4 (H 2 O) 2.5

Uranium tetrafluoride hydrate (UFH) is formed by immersing anhydrous UF4 under water for 12 h. UFH is therefore clearly a chemical species of environmental concern, as anhydrous UF4 is an intermediate uranium form in the nuclear fuel cycle. We use inelastic neutron scattering (INS) to probe the full vibrational spectra of UFH and its deuterated analogue in an effort to improve the fundamental understanding of its vibrational spectra. Coupled with density functional theory (DFT) calculations, the first for this compound, and full spectral modeling, we generate the complete vibrational spectra of UFH and compare them to prior optical spectroscopic results. In particular, the combination of DFT with INS allows us to identify multiple distinct chemical environments in the water bending and OH stretching regions. Whereas the water molecules directly bound to the U atoms execute OH stretching around 3600 cm –1 , a second class of H-bonded waters vibrate below 3000 cm –1 , an indicator of strong H bonding. In addition, a class of librational water modes are observed between 400 and 900 cm–1, which themselves can be separated in energy according to their chemical environments. Furthermore, measurements presented herein directly assist in the assignment of certain spectral features in the infrared spectrum and will inform future investigations of UFH for environmental or forensics purposes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Precipitation Parameters on the Specific Surface Area of PuO 2

Controlling the properties of PuO 2 through processing is of vital importance to environmental transport and fate, production of nuclear fuels, nuclear forensic analyses, stockpile stewardship, and storage of nuclear wastes applications. A number of processing conditions have been identified to control final product properties, including specific surface area (SSA), residual carbon content, adsorption of volatile species, morphology, and particle size. In this paper, a novel approach is developed for the prediction of PuO 2 SSA via the synthetic route of Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation followed by calcination. The proposed model utilizes multivariate regression methodology and leave one out formalism to link Savannah River Site (SRS) precipitation and calcination production data to the SSA of the final product. A comparison among the models provides insight into the accuracy and ability to identify variations amongst the processing data. Additionally, the models may also be used to fit new data outside of the parameters explored in a production facility. Finally, the trained model was compared to a similarly trained conventional model form to illustrate the influence of precipitation parameters on the prediction of the final SSA. The models presented here attempt to provide new methods for more accurate prediction of the PuO 2 product properties in a production scale environment for key environmental and nuclear applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxygen Isotope Fractionation in U 3 O 8 during Thermal Processing in Humid Atmospheres

The incorporation of oxygen isotopes from water into uranium oxides during industrial processing presents a pathway for determining a material’s geographical origin. This study is founded on the hypothesis that oxygen isotopes from atmospheric water vapor will exchange with isotopes of oxygen in solid uranium oxides during thermal processing or calcination. Using a commonly encountered oxide, U 3 O 8 , the exchange kinetics and equilibrium fractionation with water vapor (in a concentration range of 50–55% relative humidity) were investigated using processing temperatures of 400, 600, and 800 °C. In an atmosphere containing only water vapor diluted in N 2 , oxygen isotope equilibration in U 3 O 8 occurred within 12 h at 400 °C and within 2 h at 600 and 800 °C. Fractionation factors (1000lnα, U 3 O 8 –H 2 O) between the water and oxide were –12.1, –11.0, and –8.0 at 400, 600, and 800 °C, respectively. With both humidity and O 2 present in the calcining atmosphere, isotopic equilibration is attained within 2 h at and above 400 °C. In this mixed atmosphere, which was designed to emulate Earth’s troposphere, isotopes are incorporated preferentially from water vapor at 400 °C and from O 2 at 600 and 800 °C. Rapid and temperature/species-dependent isotope exchange also elucidated the impact of retrograde exchange in humid air, showing a shift from O 2 -dependent to H 2 O-dependent fractionation as U 3 O 8 cooled from 800 °C. These results confirm that uranium oxides inherit oxygen isotopes from humidity during thermal processing, illuminating an important mechanism in the formation of this forensic signature.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Matrix-Assisted Ionization of Molecular Uranium Species

Matrix-assisted ionization (MAI) demonstrates high sensitivity for a variety of organic compounds; however, few studies have reported the application of MAI for the detection and characterization of inorganic analytes. Trace-level uranium analysis is important in the realms of nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and environmental monitoring. Traditional mass spectrometry methods employed in these fields require combinations of extensive laboratory chemistry sample preparation and destructive ionization methods. There has been recent interest in exploring ambient mass spectrometry methods that enable timely sample analysis and higher sensitivity than what is attainable by field-portable radiation detectors. Rapid characterization of uranium at nanogram levels is demonstrated in this study using MAI techniques. Mass spectra were collected on an atmospheric pressure mass spectrometer for solutions of uranyl nitrate, uranyl chloride, uranyl acetate, and uranyl oxalate utilizing 3-nibrobenzonitrile as the ionization matrix. The uranyl complexes investigated were detectable, and the chemical speciation was preserved. Sample analysis was accomplished in a matter of seconds, and limits of detection of 5 ng of uranyl nitrate, 10 ng of uranyl oxalate, 100 ng of uranyl chloride, and 200 ng of uranyl acetate were achieved. The observed gas-phase speciation was similar to negative-ion electrospray ionization of uranyl compounds with notable differences. Six matrix-derived ions were detected in all negative-ion mass spectra, and some of these ions formed adducts with the uranyl analyte. Subsequent analysis of the matrix suggests that these molecules are not matrix contaminants and are instead created during the ionization process.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Screening for Uranium Enrichment by Paper Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry for Field Applications

A rapid isotope ratio screening technique for uranium enrichment is demonstrated by utilizing paper spray ionization (PSI) high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). Measurements were conducted using an ambient ionization mass spectrometer coupled to a custom-made JEOL PSI attachment apparatus, with de minimus sample preparation requirements. The current method detection limit for individual isotopes (e.g., 235 U and 238 U) is approximately 50 pg, with subsequent optimization expected to further improve U isotopic sensitivity. The PSI analytical method described herein can support rapid analysis (both in-field and in-lab screening) of isotopes-of-interest, as demonstrated by empirical differentiation of depleted uranium (DU) and low enriched uranium (LEU) analytical aliquots. Furthermore, this analytical workflow holds promise for applications in nuclear forensics, international nuclear safeguards, and nonproliferation missions.

Anions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ambient ion focusing from a field-free region to a detector: enhanced signal for explosives and drug detection with mass spectrometry

This study demonstrates ion focusing at ambient pressure and increased ion signal by creating a voltage gradient from a field-free region to a detector, thereby improving the detection of chemicals, such as explosives and drugs. At ambient pressure, ion loss and resulting signal reduction pose challenges that limit detection sensitivity in analytical instruments. Techniques to increase sensitivity, such as atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS), extend ion-molecule reaction times but result in significant overall ion loss due to diffusion. Ion manipulation techniques, though challenging at ambient pressure, can mitigate these losses by concentrating ions toward the detector inlet. Using SIMION, ion trajectories were modeled with a voltage gradient applied between a flow tube and a detector, revealing ion focusing at ambient pressure. Experimental verification with an atmospheric flow tube employed both mass spectrometry and Faraday plate detectors to measure ion beam profiles across varying flow rates, tube diameters, and voltage gradients. Application of a voltage gradient effectively directed ions to the axial center of the flow tube, narrowed ion beam width, and increased signal intensity by 5 to 10 times compared to conditions without a voltage gradient. This ion focusing approach shows promise for improving sensitivity in ambient-pressure instruments. This technique has the potential to enhance detection levels in security and forensic applications, with particular benefits for field-portable devices used at checkpoints to identify explosives and drugs.

ambient pressure↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗