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Renewed Commitment to Excellence: An Assessment of the NASA Agency-Wide Applicability of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report

The Space Shuttle fleet has been grounded since the Columbia accident. As a result, 'Return to Flight' has become not just a phrase but a program and the global of virtually everyone associated with NASA. Even those who are not affiliated with the Shuttle Program are looking forward to the safe and successful completion of the next Shuttle mission. In this recovery process, NASA will be guided by the Report of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). The CAIB was an investigating body, convened by NASA Administrator O'Keefe the day of the Columbia accident, according to procedures established after the loss of Space Challenger.

SPACE SHUTTLE COLUMBIA↗

Transition to Glass: Pilot Training for High-Technology Transport Aircraft

This report examines the activities of a major commercial air carrier between 1993 and late 1996 as it acquired an advanced fleet of high-technology aircraft (Boeing 757). Previously, the airline's fleet consisted of traditional (non-glass) aircraft, and this report examines the transition from a traditional fleet to a glass one. A total of 150 pilots who were entering the B-757 transition training volunteered for the study, which consisted of three query phases: (1) first day of transition training, (2) 3 to 4 months after transition training, and (3) 12 to 14 months after initial operating experience. Of these initial 150 pilots, 99 completed all three phases of the study, with each phase consisting of probes on attitudes and experiences associated with their training and eventual transition to flying the line. In addition to the three questionnaires, 20 in-depth interviews were conducted. Although the primary focus of this study was on the flight training program, additional factors such as technical support, documentation, and training aids were investigated as well. The findings generally indicate that the pilot volunteers were highly motivated and very enthusiastic about their training program. In addition, the group had low levels of apprehension toward automation and expressed a high degree of satisfaction toward their training. However, there were some concerns expressed regarding the deficiencies in some of the training aids and lack of a free-play flight management system training device.

Wiener, Earl L.↗

Joint Work Plan for DPC Filler Testing

The US generates approximately 2,000 Metric Tons of Heavy Metal (MTHM) of commercial spent fuel (SNF) each year and currently stores ~ 85,000 MTHM of commercial SNF at 70+ reactor sites, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the US Department of Energy (DOE). SNF is initially stored in spent nuclear fueld pools (SFPs). SFPs were initially constructed by US utilities for temporary fuel storage, but with no final disposal pathway available, SFPs are reaching capacity. To allow continued operation of the nation's commercial nuclear reactor fleet, utilities started transferring SNF from SFPs (wet storage) to dry cask storage systems, typically using dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs). And while DPCs were designed, licensed and loaded to meet Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements that preclude the possibility of a critical event during SNF storage and transport, they were not designed or loaded to preclude the possibility of a criticality event during the regulated post-closure period following disposal, which could be up to 1,000,000 years (Price, 2019). DPC filler option criteria are detailed and materials that exhibit these attributes are explored. This document is an update of the SNL Joint Workplan on Filler Investigations for DPCs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Long-lived space observatories for astronomy and astrophysics

NASA's plan to build and launch a fleet of long-lived space observatories that include the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO), the Advanced X Ray Astrophysics Observatory (AXAF), and the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) are discussed. These facilities are expected to have a profound impact on the sciences of astronomy and astrophysics. The long-lived observatories will provide new insights about astronomical and astrophysical problems that range from the presence of planets orbiting nearby stars to the large-scale distribution and evolution of matter in the universe. An important concern to NASA and the scientific community is the operation and maintenance cost of the four observatories described above. The HST cost about $1.3 billion (1984 dollars) to build and is estimated to require $160 million (1986 dollars) a year to operate and maintain. If HST is operated for 20 years, the accumulated costs will be considerably more than those required for its construction. Therefore, it is essential to plan carefully for observatory operations and maintenance before a long-lived facility is constructed. The primary goal of this report is to help NASA develop guidelines for the operations and management of these future observatories so as to achieve the best possible scientific results for the resources available. Eight recommendations are given.

Savage, Blair D.↗

Development of Human and Technology Integration Guidance for Work Optimization and Effective Use of Information

Existing nuclear power contributes to roughly 20% of the total electricity generation, and consistently provides the highest capacity factor of any other electricity generating resource in the United States. Despite these advantages, the existing nuclear power plant fleet in the United States has been enduring significant challenges in providing electricity in a cost-competitive manner, which has ultimately threatened the long-term economic viability of these plants. A major contributor to these increased operating and maintenance costs has been the continued reliance of a large workforce who perform their work under an operating model that has largely remained unchanged since the commissioning of these nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, while this operating model has provided safe and reliable electricity, other industries have already began transforming their workforce through the use of advanced digital technology and automation that has reduced their operating and maintenance cost significantly. In order for the United States nuclear industry to remain economically viable, a similar transformation must be considered in which digital technologies and automation capabilities are brought in to support key plant functions across all work functions across plant operation, maintenance, and support. To effectively integrate digital technology and automation in the existing nuclear power plant operating model, a multidisciplinary approach is needed that addresses technological and sociotechnical (i.e., human and technology integration) considerations. This report describes an extension to the human and technology integration methodology, herein referred to as Human Integration and Technology Task Force for Work Management Optimization (HITT), to support the safe, reliable, and efficient use of proposed innovations with the intended users in their intended environment to perform their intended tasks. By effectively incorporating human and technology integration into a plant modernization effort by using HITT, we believe that a utility can significantly improve work performance and overall workforce quality of life. For instance, if HITT is performed to optimize work management, scheduling performance and scope stability can be improved by up to 10%. HITT enables these benefits through developing a rich understanding of the work being performed, the utility’s vision, and the opportunities that provide greatest value to optimize performance through a 10-step process illustrated below as a quick guide. The quick guide contains links in the righthand side of each step that allows for navigation to the detailed section (Section 4) of HITT in this technical report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗

Air traffic management system design using satellite based geo-positioning and communications assets

The current FAA and ICAO FANS vision of Air Traffic Management will transition the functions of Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance to satellite based assets in the 21st century. Fundamental to widespread acceptance of this vision is a geo-positioning system that can provide worldwide access with best case differential GPS performance, but without the associated problems. A robust communications capability linking-up aircraft and towers to meet the voice and data requirements is also essential. The current GPS constellation does not provide continuous global coverage with a sufficient number of satellites to meet the precision landing requirements as set by the world community. Periodic loss of the minimum number of satellites in view creates an integrity problem, which prevents GPS from becoming the primary system for navigation. Furthermore, there is reluctance on the part of many countries to depend on assets like GPS and GLONASS which are controlled by military communities. This paper addresses these concerns and provides a system solving the key issues associated with navigation, automatic dependent surveillance, and flexible communications. It contains an independent GPS-like navigation system with 27 satellites providing global coverage with a minimum of six in view at all times. Robust communications is provided by a network of TDMA/FDMA communications payloads contained on these satellites. This network can support simultaneous communications for up to 30,000 links, nearly enough to simultaneously support three times the current global fleet of jumbo air passenger aircraft. All of the required hardware is directly traceable to existing designs.

Horkin, Phil↗

Enabling and Enhancing Space Mission Success and Reduction of Risk through the Application of an Integrated Data Architecture

The engineering phases of design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT and E) and subsequent planning, preparation, and operation (Ops) of space vehicles in a complex and distributed environment requires massive and continuous flows of information across the enterprise and across temporal stages of the vehicle lifecycle. The resulting capabilities at each subsequent stage depend in part on the capture, preparation, storage, and subsequent provision of information from prior stages. The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently designing a fleet of new vehicles that will replace the Space Shuttle and expand space operations and exploration capabilities. This includes the 2 stage human rated lift vehicle Ares 1 and its associated crew vehicle the Orion, and a service module; the heavy lift cargo vehicle, Ares 5, and an associated cargo stage known as the Earth Departure Stage; and a Lunar Lander vehicle that contains a descent stage, and ascent stage, and a habitation module. A variety of concurrent assorted ground operations infrastructure including software and facilities are also being developed, assorted technology and assembly designs and development for equipment such as EVA suits, life support systems, command and control technologies are also in the pipeline. The development is occurring in a distributed manner, with project deliverables being contributed by a large and diverse assortment of vendors and most space faring nations. Critical information about all of the components, software, and procedures must be shared during the DDT and E phases and then made readily available to the mission operations staff for access during the planning, preparation, and operations phases, and also need to be readily available for system to system interactions. The Constellation Data Systems Project (CxDS) is identifying the needs, and designing and deploying systems and processes to support these needs. This paper details the steps and processes that NASA is applying within the Constellation Program to manage this data and information, and to insure that the correct information is available, correctly annotated, and can be provisioned digitally to enhance response times, and support engineering analysis and anomaly resolution.

Brummett, Robert C.↗

Employing MACS/ViBRANT as a Surrogate MARVEL Reactor for Startup Reactivity Tuning and Supervisory Control Processes

Advanced nuclear reactors are a key part of the future of nuclear energy both in the United States and globally. They offer unique benefits for various energy-demanding applications, including use in remote locations, compact size, modular manufacturing, remote monitoring, low and/or variable power rating operation, and reliance on novel technologies to enhance operational safety. To achieve economic feasibility, advanced reactors must significantly reduce their workforces in comparison with the current fleet. Achieving this reduction will occur through reducing staff workloads using technology to achieve autonomous or semi-autonomous operations, demonstrated by comprehensive testing and validation activities. These operations will require both software and hardware platforms during the design and testing phases. While simulations are useful during the design phase, their performance can significantly deviate during actual deployment on hardware. This report presents the outcomes of a collaborative technical initiative between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) and Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program. The collaboration utilized the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform to bridge the gap between theoretical reactor design and actual startup and control operations. Two key use cases were investigated: facilitating the startup testing period and demonstrating supervisory control. The first use case details the key Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor startup physics testing activities conducted using the MACS platform. These activities included drum worth measurements, shutdown margin assessment, temperature feedback analysis, and scram time evaluation, as well as unique testing that would apply to the MARVEL reactor to demonstrate the testing methodologies in a low-risk environment. The MACS platform, serving as a surrogate representation of the MARVEL reactor, proved instrumental in performing these tests. The exercise revealed aspects that led to optimized processes, refined hardware design, and enhanced base software capabilities. By maturing methods and technologies in this manner, the initiative promises to reduce wasted time in the actual on-site reactor deployment effort, thereby saving significant time and resources. The second use case focuses on the development and implementation of supervisory control methods aimed at managing core tilt, which can result from asymmetrical operations or manufacturing imperfections in fuel rods or reactivity control devices. A key objective was to assess and compare the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for supervisory control. The effort aimed to define the role of supervisory control to enhance performance without risking control instability. This effort explored three distinct approaches: rules-based (RB) methods, optimization techniques, and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Each approach was evaluated for its ease of implementation, its usability, and its effectiveness in responding to asymmetries in neutron flux. Comparative analysis of these approaches provided valuable insights into their applicability and effectiveness, offering a robust framework for advanced reactor operations. Together, these two use cases highlight the potential of hardware test beds to help streamline the design, operation, and control of advanced nuclear reactors. This collaborative effort underscores the importance of continued innovation and experimentation in achieving the next generation of safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transformational Phenomena as Predictors of Aircraft Accidents: What Goes Around Comes Around

Flight crew confusion, excessive stressworkload, and ineffective Crew Resource Management among other issues arising from dependence on automated systems on the flight deck have been identified as major causal factors in multiple fatal accidents, significant incidents and near misses. Many Loss of Control events have been traced to display of erroneous flight data and auto-flight system mode status to the crew. Safety was compromised by not having sufficiently obvious and unambiguous information available in order to permit quick diagnosis of aircraft status and then appropriate action to regain control of the aircraft energy state or trajectory. Continually evolving training and operational requirements related to aircraft automation have also presented critical challenges to commercial aviation. During times of high demand and low supply of experienced pilots (which is today the case in South-East Asia, for instance), basic training in manual flight may be minimal and as low as a few hundred flight hours on light aircraft before beginning training on advanced, highly automated aircraft. Predominant use of automation may cause aircrew trained in this way to have trouble performing traditionally simple operations such as manually switching to other runways or overriding the autopilot in tight situations. Inadequate crew training andor experience coupled with attempted manual flight in highly automated airplanes may more easily lead to loss of aircraft control in unusual situations such as high-altitude stallsupsets, traffic avoidance or maneuvering. Loss of basic piloting skills through increasing dependence on automation may exacerbate this problem. Finally, design changes by nature take a long time and are very costly. Incorporating novel automated functionality into new aircraft designs is technically feasible and desirable. However, it may take many years for these changes to have a significant impact on tomorrows fleet, given the time it takes to develop a new aircraft and for these aircraft to become a significant fraction of the fleet. This paper will review and summarize the findings and recommendations from a 2004 study of the topic, Increasing reliance on flight deck automation conducted by the Future Aviation Safety Team at the behest of the Joint Safety Strategy Initiative (JSSI) within the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) organization that existed at the time. Although this study was conducted more than ten years ago, its findings and recommendations are as relevant now as then and into the future.

safety↗

Modernizing the Nuclear Industry and New Ways of Working

Nuclear energy is recognized as the most feasible energy source towards achieving nation-wide net-zero goals (COP 208, MIT). Additionally, the demand for reliable, consistent energy supply is soaring with the construction of energy hungry data centers and AI tools. This means the construction of new nuclear and the continuation of current nuclear are a high national priority. However, this leaves the nuclear industry with a workforce challenge. The rising demand for nuclear power is threatened by an underpopulated workforce. There exist a few contributors to the decreased workforce such as skewed workforce demographics resulting in large-scale workforce retirement. Also, some plants have observed difficulty hiring and retaining skill sets that typically comprise the nuclear power workforce – specifically skilled craftsman. Those who are graduating with desirable skills are seeking employment in sectors that are more modern and culturally more aligned with younger generational values. Lastly, within the nuclear sector, skilled employees will be a competitive commodity as advanced plants come online offering work environments that incorporate modern technologies, skill sets, and opportunities for career advancement. These factors emphasize the need for legacy plants to modernize with a focus on the workplace environment and culture that meets younger generations’ skills, cultural expectations, and desire for advancement opportunities. Nuclear plants are actively engaged in deploying advancements that improve the management of systems, structures, and components as well as process improvements and technologies that can reduce the costs of operation and maintenance. However, the advancements must also be analyzed, reviewed and deployed in a manner that considers the impact on how people within the organization collaborate, communicate, make decisions, and solve problems. Neglecting to consider the cultural impact of modernization risks poor adoption, unrealized opportunities, or insignificant change toward helping attract new employees. The traditional way of working is not necessarily the way new generations want to engage with their employer. For instance, in a survey performed by North American Young Generation in Nuclear the top three reasons for younger nuclear employees to seek other job opportunities was seeking better work-life balance, a lack of advancement opportunities, and work culture and leadership style differences (Smyth et al. 2022). Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) is an approach for the nuclear industry to create long-term strategic modernization plans and analyze each advancement for the impact on people and processes and measure how those impacts flow up to support high-level, long-term plant goals and requirements. One principle of ION is to replace the current labor-centric operation style in legacy nuclear plants with data-centric collaborative operation styles. This paper will explain how transitioning operations to leverage centralized skills and responsibility, multi-skilled teams, and collaborative decision making can flatten the hierarchical structure in plants, enable greater individual efficacy while also offering more experiences and advancement opportunities to staff. Adopting the ION way of working shifts the industry mind-set towards more networked, collaborative, and modern way of working that will attract skilled, next-generation workers to operate the legacy nuclear fleet.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Behind the Meter Storage for Electric Vehicle Charging, Electrochemical and Thermal Energy Storage, and Solar Photovoltaic

In response to the potentially large and irregular demand from EVs, along with changing load profiles from buildings with on-site generation, utilities are evaluating multiple options for managing dynamic loads, including time-of-use pricing, demand charges, battery storage, and curtailment of variable generation. Buildings, as well as commercial, public, and workplace EV charging operations, can use a combination of electrochemical battery storage and thermal energy storage coupled with on-site generation to manage energy costs as well as provide resiliency and reliability for EV charging and building energy loads. We are completing a behind the meter storage analysis that focuses on determining the optimal system designs and energy flows for thermal and electrochemical behind the meter storage with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation enabling electric vehicle charging in various climates, building types, and utility rate structures. In completing this analysis, we have developed a tool that combines existing battery models via the System Advisor Model (SAM) and building modeling software via EnergyPlus into a single interface. This tool allows us to simulate a building with a detailed battery model to properly size the battery, thermal energy storage, and solar PV systems to maximize profit for the system owner. This also allows us to assess how the battery degrades under various supervisory control dispatch algorithms to control charging/discharging; we can also see how thermal energy storage is created and used to complement the battery to reduce thermal loads in the building. With this project, we can analyze new batteries that are designed specifically for energy storage, rather than designed to be extremely energy dense for electric vehicle applications, using battery lifetime models from other national labs and the existing SAM battery model, which has detailed lifetime and degradation parameters. We can also assess novel thermal storage technologies by integrating them into the whole building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Because the model calls both SAM and EnergyPlus, required inputs need to be compatible for both models. These inputs include, on a high-level, the following: weather files, building and electric vehicle load profiles, electricity rate tariff information, and system cost information for the stationary battery, solar PV, and thermal storage system. The various buildings we are studying for this analysis are retail big-box grocery store, commercial office building, fleet vehicle depot and operations facility, multi-family residential, and electric vehicle charging station. For these different applications, the battery and thermal storage will be dispatched differently, and the various technologies are sized differently to optimize cost.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Nuclear Waste Attributes of SMRs Scheduled for Near-Term Deployment

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the nuclear waste attributes of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) scheduled for deployment within this decade using available data and established nuclear waste metrics, with the results compared to a reference large Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors in the U.S. is composed of 92 large Light Water Reactors (LWR) with an average electricity generating capacity of over 1,000 MWe each. These large LWRs built on-site in massive construction projects have been the mainstay of the industry for the last 50 years. However, new construction soon is expected to include several designs of smaller reactors primarily fabricated in factories and installed in the field in modules. Some of these SMRs will also be LWRs, while some will use other coolants such as liquid metals, molten salts or gases, and different types of fuels. The technologies and economics of SMRs have been the focus of many studies, but there has been only minimal information published on the amount of nuclear waste different types of SMRs are expected to generate and no reports focused on near-term-deployable designs. In this study, the nuclear waste attributes of three small reactors scheduled for near-term-deployment, VOYGR TM (from NuScale Power), Natrium TM ab (from TerraPower), and Xe-100 (from X-energy), were assessed by comparing nuclear waste metrics with those of a reference large Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrating the Safety Evaluation for a Molten Salt Reactor Operation and Fuel Cycle Facility Application

Molten salt reactor (MSR) sites may include additional elements of the nuclear fuel cycle beyond those of the existing fleet. In the existing fleet, the individual elements of the fuel cycle typically have been located on different sites and licensed separately. Providing robust separation between hazards remains a useful safety practice for MSRs. Although the different elements of the fuel cycle at a nuclear site that includes MSRs may transfer material between processes more frequently than prior practices, providing adequate separation between distinct facilities avoids the potential for adverse interactions. Additionally, some elements of the MSR fuel cycle, such as fuel salt preparation or waste stabilization, may be more efficient to share among multiple nearby reactors, and nuclear sites that include MSRs may also include other reactor classes. Hence, discrete MSR fuel cycle facilities located at a common site could be physically separated with robust barriers—albeit potentially connected by piping—and licensed individually. This report describes the hazards of individual elements of representative MSR fuel cycle facilities, including their relationship to overall site level hazards. The report maps the regulatory compliance aspects of the individual MSR fuel cycle elements (e.g., fuel salt preparation, reactor, waste stabilization) to existing and developing regulations, as well as describes current and developing site-level regulations from an MSR perspective.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗