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At least 361 records · Page 20

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evidence for a 5d F-theorem

Renormalization group flows are studied between 5d SCFTs engineered by (p, q) 5-brane webs with large numbers of external 5-branes. A general expression for the free energy on S5 in terms of single-valued trilogarithm functions is derived from their supergravity duals, which are characterized by the 5-brane charges and additional geometric parameters. The additional geometric parameters are fixed by regularity conditions, and we show that the solutions to the regularity conditions extremize a trial free energy. These results are used to survey a large sample of O(10 5 ) renormalization group flows between different 5d SCFTs, including Higgs branch flows and flows that preserve the SU(2) R- symmetry. In all cases the free energy changes monotonically towards the infrared, in line with a 5d F -theorem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamical friction from scalar dark matter in the relativistic regime

Light bosonic scalars (e.g., axions) may form clouds around black holes via superradiant instabilities or via accretion if they form some component of the dark matter. It has been suggested that their presence may lead to a distinctive dephasing of the gravitational wave signal when a small compact object spirals into a larger black hole. Motivated by this, we have studied numerically the dynamical friction force on a black hole moving at relativistic velocities in a background scalar field with an asymptotically homogeneous energy density. Here we show that the relativistic scaling is analogous to that found for supersonic collisional fluids, assuming an approximate expression for the pressure correction which depends on the velocity and scalar mass. While we focus on a complex scalar field, our results confirm the expectation that real scalars would exert a force which oscillates between positive and negative values in time with a frequency set by the scalar mass. The complex field describes the time averaged value of this force, but in a real scalar, the rapid force oscillations could, in principle, leave an imprint on the trajectory. The approximation we obtain can be used to inform estimates of dephasing in the final stages of an extreme mass ratio inspiral.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?

Abstract Tidal salt marshes produce and emit CH 4 . Therefore, it is critical to understand the biogeochemical controls that regulate CH 4 spatial and temporal dynamics in wetlands. The prevailing paradigm assumes that acetoclastic methanogenesis is the dominant pathway for CH 4 production, and higher salinity concentrations inhibit CH 4 production in salt marshes. Recent evidence shows that CH 4 is produced within salt marshes via methylotrophic methanogenesis, a process not inhibited by sulfate reduction. To further explore this conundrum, we performed measurements of soil–atmosphere CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes coupled with depth profiles of soil CH 4 and CO 2 pore water gas concentrations, stable and radioisotopes, pore water chemistry, and microbial community composition to assess CH 4 production and fate within a temperate tidal salt marsh. We found unexpectedly high CH 4 concentrations up to 145,000 μmol mol −1 positively correlated with S 2− (salinity range: 6.6–14.5 ppt). Despite large CH 4 production within the soil, soil–atmosphere CH 4 fluxes were low but with higher emissions and extreme variability during plant senescence (84.3 ± 684.4 nmol m −2 s −1 ). CH 4 and CO 2 within the soil pore water were produced from young carbon, with most Δ 14 C‐CH 4 and Δ 14 C‐CO 2 values at or above modern. We found evidence that CH 4 within soils was produced by methylotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Several pathways exist after CH 4 is produced, including diffusion into the atmosphere, CH 4 oxidation, and lateral export to adjacent tidal creeks; the latter being the most likely dominant flux. Our findings demonstrate that CH 4 production and fluxes are biogeochemically heterogeneous, with multiple processes and pathways that can co‐occur and vary in importance over the year. This study highlights the potential for high CH 4 production, the need to understand the underlying biogeochemical controls, and the challenges of evaluating CH 4 budgets and blue carbon in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations for Biological Performance Assessment in Hydropower units (Final Report)

The biological performance assessment (BioPA) toolset developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimates the relative biological performance of fish passage at a hydroelectric power turbine unit. The tool is based on the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and fish biological response relationships. The recent release, BioPA-v3, is based on directly computed trajectory and collision of material Lagrangian particles using CFD simulation codes rather than the prior version that relies on Tecplot to compute streamtrace trajectories. Before modifying the toolset, a series of validation tests were performed at the various steps of modification in the toolset. Validation is a critical step of any numerical investigation that reflects the accuracy and reliability of the predicted results. It raises the confidence level of the user to use the modified version of the BioPA toolset. Several test cases were simulated and compared, where available, to observed data. The trajectory and collision of the small spherical and cylindrical particles in a water flume were compared to in-house experiments. The CFD predicted collision rate and flow field compared well with experimental observation for vane array and large cylinder as target bodies. Next, the CFD-predicted flow field and hydraulic performance of a laboratory-scale model of a Francis turbine was also successfully validated. Note that the trajectory of the particles is significantly affected by the flow field in such extreme conditions. In addition to the particle trajectories and flow field, the collision detection method employed in the CFD simulations was also successfully validated. The CFD predicted impact velocity, collision time, velocity, and trajectory of a sphere excellently matched with analytical value for a bouncing ball in the elastic collision. A similar approach was also tested and successfully validated for a collision of sphere with a 45° inclined plane. After successfully validating different cases, the BioPA toolset was modified to use direct output of the CFD prediction and the new version can be used in evaluating biological performance at hydroelectric turbines.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data release for A search for extremely-high-energy neutrinos and first constraints on the ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray proton fraction with IceCube

<h1 id="summary">Summary</h1> <p>Title: Data Release for A search for extremely-high-energy neutrinos and first constraints on the ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray proton fraction with IceCube</p> <p>The IceCube observatory analyzed 12.6 years of data in search of extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrinos above 5 PeV. The resultant limit of the search (Fig 1), and the effective area of the event selection (Fig 7), are provided in this data release.</p> <h1 id="contents">Contents</h1> <ul> <li><p>README file: this file</p> </li> <li><p><code>differential_limit_and_sensitivity.csv</code>: a comma separated value file, giving the observed experimental differential limit, and sensitivity, of the search as a function of neutrino energy. This is the content of Fig 1 in the paper. The first column is the neutrino energy in GeV. The second column is the limit in units of GeV/cm2/s/sr. The third column is the sensitivity in units of GeV/cm2/s/sr.</p> </li> <li><p><code>effective_area.csv</code>: a comma separated value file, giving the effective area of the search as a function of energy. This is the content of Fig 7 in the paper. The first column is the neutrino energy in GeV. The second column is the total effective area of the search, summed across neutrino flavors, and averaged across neutrinos and antineutrinos, in meters-squared. The third column is the effective area of the search for the average of electron neutrino and electron antineutrinos in units of meters-squared. The fourth column is the same as the third, but for muon-flavor neutrinos. The fifth column is the same as the third and fourth, but for tau-flavor neutrinos.</p> </li> <li><p><code>demo.py</code>: a short python script to demonstrate how to read the files. Run like <code>python demo.py</code>. A standard base python installation is sufficient, as the only dependencies are numpy and matplotlib.</p> </li> </ul> <h1 id="contacts">Contacts</h1> <p>For any questions about this data release, please write to analysis@icecube.wisc.edu</p>

Astronomy and Astrophysics↗

The Effect of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather on Household Location Choice and Economic Welfare

Natural disasters have increased in the United States in recent decades. At the same time, there has been a shift in population away from the states in the Northeast and Midwest to areas in the Sun Belt, many of which face increased risks from natural disasters. Spatial equilibrium theory predicts that households trade off risk for income in making location decisions. This study estimates a spatial equilibrium model of household location choice to understand these trade-offs. The results show that households require as much as 0.40% of annual household income to endure an additional disaster over the course of a decade. They also show that these values differ substantially depending on household skill level with higher-skill, higher-income households willing to pay three times more in annual income to avoid an additional natural disaster. Furthermore, these results have important implications for policymakers thinking about climate change adaptation and environmental justice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving ultrahigh modulus of resilience and enhanced thermal stability in ZnO x /SU-8 interpenetrating network polymer nanocomposite nanopillars

The modulus of resilience, a mechanical property that quantifies the maximum strain energy density a material can store during elastic deformation, is a crucial parameter for materials used in flexible displays, micro/nano-electro-mechanical system (M/NEMS) actuators, and ultra-sensitive pressure sensors. In this study, ZnO x /SU-8 nanocomposite nanopillars with a diameter of 300 nm, fully infiltrated with a uniformly distributed, interpenetrating amorphous ZnO x filler network, were synthesized via vapor-phase infiltration (VPI). In-situ uniaxial nano-compression tests revealed that the modulus of resilience of ZnO x /SU-8 reaches ∼ 12 MJ/m 3 , which is an ultrahigh value among all engineering materials with comparable strength. In addition, the synthesis fidelity, inorganic infiltration depth, and mechanical performance were all significantly improved compared to VPI-synthesized AlO x nanocomposites. Thermal stability, another key requirement for M/NEMS device materials operating under extreme environments, was also notably enhanced. Furthermore, partial crystallization of the amorphous ZnO x fillers during annealing contributed to an additional increase in modulus of resilience, reaching up to ∼ 13.9 MJ/m 3 . This work presents an effective fabrication strategy for producing nanostructured organic–inorganic hybrid nanocomposites with ultrahigh modulus of resilience and superior thermal stability, paving the way for their integration into next-generation flexible displays and high-performance M/NEMS devices working under harsh environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Urban Versus Lake Impacts on Heat Stress and Its Disparities in a Shoreline City

Abstract Shoreline cities are influenced by both urban‐scale processes and land‐water interactions, with consequences on heat exposure and its disparities. Heat exposure studies over these cities have focused on air and skin temperature, even though moisture advection from water bodies can also modulate heat stress. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations covering Chicago, we find that Lake Michigan strongly reduces heat exposure (2.75°C reduction in maximum average air temperature in Chicago) and heat stress (maximum average wet bulb globe temperature reduced by 0.86°C) during the day, while urbanization enhances them at night (2.75 and 1.57°C increases in minimum average air and wet bulb globe temperature, respectively). We also demonstrate that urban and lake impacts on temperature (particularly skin temperature), including their extremes, and lake‐to‐land gradients, are stronger than the corresponding impacts on heat stress, partly due to humidity‐related feedback. Likewise, environmental disparities across community areas in Chicago seen for skin temperature are much higher (1.29°C increase for maximum average values per $10,000 higher median income per capita) than disparities in air temperature (0.50°C increase) and wet bulb globe temperature (0.23°C increase). The results call for consistent use of physiologically relevant heat exposure metrics to accurately capture the public health implications of urbanization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supporting multiple hardware architectures at CMS: the integration and validation of POWER9

Computing resources in the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) have been based entirely on the x86 architecture for more than two decades. In the near future, however, heterogeneous non-x86 resources, such as ARM, POWER and Risc-V, will become a substantial fraction of the resources that will be provided to the LHC experiments, due to their presence in existing and planned world-class HPC installations. The CMS experiment, one of the four large detectors at the LHC, has started to prepare for this situation, with the CMS software stack (CMSSW) already compiled for multiple architectures. In order to allow for a production use, the tools for workload management and job distribution need to be extended to be able to exploit heterogeneous architectures. Profiting from the opportunity to exploit the first sizable IBM Power9 allocation available on Marconi100 HPC system at CINECA, CMS developed all the needed modifications to the CMS workload management system. After a successful proof of concept, a full physics validation has been performed in order to bring the system in production. The experiences are of very high value, when it comes to commissioning of the similar (even larger) Summit HPC system at Oak Ridge, where CMS is also expecting a resource allocation. Moreover the compute power of those systems is being provided also via GPUs and this represents an extremely valuable opportunity to exploit the offloading capability already implemented in CMSSW. The status of the current integration including the exploitation of the GPUs, the results of the validation as well as the future plans will be shown and discussed.

Boccali, Tommaso [INFN, Pisa]↗

A combined biological and chemical flue gas utilization system towards carbon dioxide capture from coal-fired power plants (Final Report)

Photosynthetic algal cultivation has been intensively studied for CO 2 capture and utilization for several decades. The footprint for using algae to capture CO 2 emitted from carbon-intensive industrial processes (power plants, cement plants, and fermentation processes) is extremely large, which creates serious technical and economic hurdles that must be cleared if algal technologies are to be commercially implemented. Fortunately, algal biomass is rich in proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids, providing a good chemical source for organic absorbents and other value-added chemical feedstocks. In particular, amino acids from algal protein can be used to generate amino acid salt solutions that have been proven to be effective for capturing CO 2 . In order to take advantage of both algal cultivation and biomass utilization, the goal of the proposed project is to develop a combined biological and chemical system for coal-fired power plants for sequestering CO 2 in biological absorbents and generating value-added products. This approach significantly reduces the land and energy footprint of CO 2 capture, and minimizes capital and operational expenses. Three specific objectives are targeted: 1) optimizing the growth of the selected algal strain to maximize biomass accumulation from the coal-fired flue gas; 2) developing a cascade biomass utilization to produce amino acid absorbents, polyurethanes, biodiesel, and methane; and 3) conducting techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the proposed process. Three key technical outcomes were achieved: (1) With the selected robust algal strain and unique photobioreactor design, long-term culture stability can be extended, and algal biomass productivity reached 0.5 g dry biomass/L/day year-round at a biomass concentration of 1.2 g/L in the pilot photobioreactor; (2) The biomass utilization process led to complete utilization of the algal biomass to produce amino acid salt absorbent, polyurethanes, and methane; and (3) The combined biological and chemical flue gas utilization process concluded a technically and economically feasible commercial-scale system that completely captures CO 2 in coal-fired flue gas with greatly reduced energy consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Where’s Swimmy?: Mining unique color features buried in galaxies by deep anomaly detection using Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam data

Abstract We present the Swimmy (Subaru WIde-field Machine-learning anoMalY) survey program, a deep-learning-based search for unique sources using multicolored (grizy) imaging data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). This program aims to detect unexpected, novel, and rare populations and phenomena, by utilizing the deep imaging data acquired from the wide-field coverage of the HSC-SSP. This article, as the first paper in the Swimmy series, describes an anomaly detection technique to select unique populations as “outliers” from the data-set. The model was tested with known extreme emission-line galaxies (XELGs) and quasars, which consequently confirmed that the proposed method successfully selected $\sim\!\! 60\%$–$70\%$ of the quasars and $60\%$ of the XELGs without labeled training data. In reference to the spectral information of local galaxies at z = 0.05–0.2 obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we investigated the physical properties of the selected anomalies and compared them based on the significance of their outlier values. The results revealed that XELGs constitute notable fractions of the most anomalous galaxies, and certain galaxies manifest unique morphological features. In summary, deep anomaly detection is an effective tool that can search rare objects, and, ultimately, unknown unknowns with large data-sets. Further development of the proposed model and selection process can promote the practical applications required to achieve specific scientific goals.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The flux ratio of the [N II] λ λ 6548, 6583 Å lines in sample of Active Galactic Nuclei Type 2

In spectra of the Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs), the [N II]λλ 6548, 6583 Å lines are commonly fitted using the fixed intensity ratio of these two lines (R [NII] = I 6583 /I 6548 ). However, the used values for fixed intensity ratio are slightly different through literature. There are several theoretical calculations of the transition probabilities which can be used for the line ratio estimation, but there are no experimental measurements of this ratio, since the [N II] lines are extremely weak in laboratory plasma. Therefore, the intensity ratio of [N II] lines can be measured only in the spectra of astrophysical objects. However, precise and systematic measurements have not be done so far, because of difficulties in measurement of the [N II] ratio in various spectra (overlapping with Hα, weak intensity of [N II], influence of the continuum noise and outflow contribution, etc.). Here we present the measurements of the flux ratio of the [N II] λλ 6548, 6583 Å emission lines for a sample of 250 Type 2 AGNs spectra taken form Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data base. Further, the spectra are chosen to have high signal-to-noise ratio and to [N II] and Hα lines do not overlap. The obtained mean flux ratio from measurements is 3.049 ± 0.021. Our result is in agreement with theoretical result obtained by taking into account the relativistic corrections to the magnetic dipole operator.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electromagnetic Inhomogeneous-Energy-Density-Driven Instability in the UCLA Large Plasma Device (EM-IEDDI in LAPD) (Final Technical Report)

Using the Large Plasma Device (LAPD), the electromagnetic signatures associated with the inhomogeneous-energy-density-driven (IEDD) instability were targeted for documentation in a lab experiment. Exploitable features of LAPD are the extreme-length, high-beta, low-collisionality, and excellent reproducibility. The signatures of interest were mode amplitude, mode structure, frequency spectrum, phase velocity, and excitation threshold. The abrupt inhomogeneity at the interface between two coaxial plasma columns, that have disparate space potential values, were expected to generate a strong, localized, transverse, dc electric field and form a strong ExB-flow inhomogeneity that was expected to trigger broadband, intermediate-frequency waves that propagate many gyroradii beyond the interfacial source region. WVU was unable to destabilize the IEDDI mode in LAPD. Experimental limitation of three different parameters conspire to prevent IEDDI-favorable conditions even though Alfven-favorable conditions are met. Electron-neutral collision frequency is too high, Structuring of the radial profile of the radial electric field is negligible and the control of that structure is minimal, and the Magnetic field is too large for some purposes and too small for other purposes. WVU designed a new antenna and relied on externally-driving the IEDDI (instead of spontaneous destabilization). The antenna operation failed for unforeseen reasons and lack of electrician time and availability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electricity Markets and Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Survey of Grid Services and Revenue Streams

Purpose of Review Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is increasingly viewed as a potential resource for providing grid services that enhance the stability and flexibility of electricity systems. While some LDES services are integrated into existing market frameworks, traditional mechanisms may not fully account for their operational characteristics, potentially leading to undervaluation. Within this context, this paper reviews the literature and industry practices to assess potential grid services for LDES, evaluates existing compensation mechanisms, and identifies challenges to full market integration. Recent Findings We first review existing literature and identify key grid services unique to LDES, including enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events, enabling long-term energy shifting, and providing flexible and firm energy in systems with limited dispatchable resources. Here, we also review how LDES services are compensated in current market frameworks and the challenges associated with the full realization of LDES values. Additionally, we summarize market mechanisms for storage technologies across U.S. wholesale markets. We find that some markets are adjusting incentive structures, such as incorporating storage duration in capacity accreditation, to better align with system needs and LDES contributions to the grid. However, further refinements in capacity remuneration and dispatch timeframes may be needed for more effective realization of LDES value. Summary This review evaluates potential grid services for LDES, examines existing compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies, and identifies gaps between these mechanisms and LDES operational characteristics. The review concludes by outlining potential market enhancements for more effective LDES integration and articulating additional research needs to support its efficient participation in future power systems.

Flexible resources↗

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

Abstract Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale‐dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high‐resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019 period. The relationships of these four FDIs to the observed wildfire sizes show that higher values of FDIs correlate to larger total fire sizes; this correlation is more robust at larger spatial scales. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the daily minimum relative humidity and precipitation are the most important drivers of the annual mean fire danger. In the instances of extreme fire danger, wind speed becomes a critical factor and should be considered in the calculation of the FDI. To assess the impact of climate change on future fire size, we calculate the present‐day and end‐of‐century FDIs using the 12 km regional climate model simulations. The four FDIs generally predict consistent changes in future fire potential, suggesting an overall higher fire potential in conjunction with a prolonged wildfire season in future climate. Regionally, the four FDIs also reveal similar seasonal patterns as the enhancement arises mostly in spring and summer over the southwest US while in summer and fall over the northern and eastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fourier-like Thermal Relaxation of Nanoscale Explosive Hot Spots

Hot spots are local regions of high temperature that are widely considered to govern explosive initiation. Hot spot dynamics rests on a delicate balance between heat generation due to chemical reactions and heat loss through thermal conduction, making accurate determinations of the conductivity under extreme conditions a key component of predictive explosive models. We develop here an approach to directly determine the thermal transport properties of explosive hot spots with realistic initial structures through a combination of molecular dynamics (MD) and diffusive heat equation (HEq) modeling. Effective thermal conductivity values are determined by fitting HEq models to MD predictions of long timescale hot spot relaxation. The approach is applied to model hot spots in the molecular crystalline explosive 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) for a range of shock strengths and two limiting cases for impact orientation. Isotropic and anisotropic HEq models yield similar results, despite TATB exhibiting some of the largest and most anisotropic thermal conductivity values for explosive near normal conditions. The conductivity is found to be a strong function of density, which parametrically captures dependence on temperature, pressure, and material state. The associated root-mean-square errors of the fitted HEq models are approximately 5% of MD predicted final equilibrium temperatures. Here, the conductivity values determined here for TATB hot spots are considerably larger than those used in a prior hot spot criticality study, which may significantly impact predictions for critical hot spot sizes. The approach provides a convenient foundation for determining the effective thermal conductivity for hot spot problems in other explosives and directly yields information on reasonable approximations that might be taken in higher-level models for those materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗