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At least 361 records · Page 20

Impacts of a Prescribed Fire on Air Quality in Central New Mexico

A short-duration but high-impact air quality event occurred on 28 November 2018 along the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. This fire occurred outside the typical wildfire season, and greatly impacted the air quality in Socorro, NM, and the surroundings. Measurements were taken during the event using an aerosol light scattering technique (integrating nephelometer) and a particulate mass concentration monitor (DustTrak PM optical monitor). The instruments sampled the ambient air during the event on the campus of the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, New Mexico. The peak values on a 5-min basis of light scattering and the PM mass concentration reached 470 Mm -1 and 270 µg/m 3 , respectively. We examined the meteorological context of the event using local meteorological data and back trajectories using the NOAA HYSPLIT model to determine atmospheric transport and possible sources. Several fires, both prescribed and wildfires, occurred in the region including a prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge (17 km south-southeast of the receptor site). The data suggest that the prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache was the dominant contributor due to transport evidence and the event’s narrow spatiotemporal extent. The increasing importance of restoring ecosystem function using prescribed fire in wildland fire management will likely lead to more frequent air quality impacts and sets up policy tradeoffs that require a balance between these public goals. This study examines the evidence of the effects of a prescribed fire in a protected wildland area impacting the air quality in a nearby populated area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive laser link reconfiguration using constraint propagation

This paper describes Harris AI research performed on the Adaptive Link Reconfiguration (ALR) study for Rome Lab, and focuses on the application of constraint propagation to the problem of link reconfiguration for the proposed space based Strategic Defense System (SDS) Brilliant Pebbles (BP) communications system. According to the concept of operations at the time of the study, laser communications will exist between BP's and to ground entry points. Long-term links typical of RF transmission will not exist. This study addressed an initial implementation of BP's based on the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) SDI mission. The number of satellites and rings studied was representative of this problem. An orbital dynamics program was used to generate line-of-site data for the modeled architecture. This was input into a discrete event simulation implemented in the Harris developed COnstraint Propagation Expert System (COPES) Shell, developed initially on the Rome Lab BM/C3 study. Using a model of the network and several heuristics, the COPES shell was used to develop the Heuristic Adaptive Link Ordering (HALO) Algorithm to rank and order potential laser links according to probability of communication. A reduced set of links based on this ranking would then be used by a routing algorithm to select the next hop. This paper includes an overview of Constraint Propagation as an Artificial Intelligence technique and its embodiment in the COPES shell. It describes the design and implementation of both the simulation of the GPALS BP network and the HALO algorithm in COPES. This is described using a 59 Data Flow Diagram, State Transition Diagrams, and Structured English PDL. It describes a laser communications model and the heuristics involved in rank-ordering the potential communication links. The generation of simulation data is described along with its interface via COPES to the Harris developed View Net graphical tool for visual analysis of communications networks. Conclusions are presented, including a graphical analysis of results depicting the ordered set of links versus the set of all possible links based on the computed Bit Error Rate (BER). Finally, future research is discussed which includes enhancements to the HALO algorithm, network simulation, and the addition of an intelligent routing algorithm for BP.

Crone, M. S.↗

Single Event Upset Effects on the Clementine Solid State Data Recorder

The sensitivity of the Clementine 2.1 Gbit Solid State Data Recorder (SSDR) to single event upsets was characterized in ground tests. Subsequent in-situ measurements of the ambient radiation environment by experiments on-board Clementine permitted evaluation of the ability of models of the single event phenomenon in the SSDR to be tested using actual data. Initial results from the analysis reveal a nearly constant background upset rate of ~71 bit flips/day for the SSDR. There is no obvious correlation with a solar proton event recorded by Clementine and several other spacecraft on 20-21 February 1994, indicating that the SSDR was not sensitive to protons. The constant rate is thus interpreted as being a function of the Galactic Cosmic Ray heavy ion environment. A pronounced lunar orbit altitude dependence has also been identified in the data though the cause has not yet been unambiguously identified.

Clementine↗

Observational support for the current sheet catastrophe model of substorm current disruption

The principles of the current sheet catastrophe models are briefly reviewed, and observations of some of the signatures predicted by the theory are presented. The data considered here include AMPTE/CCE observations of fifteen current sheet disruption events. According to the model proposed here, the root cause of the current disruption is some process, as yet unknown, that leads to an increase in the k sub A parameter. Possible causes for the increase in k sub A are discussed.

Burkhart, G. R.↗

Forward Bay Cover Separation Modeling and Testing for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

Spacecraft multi‐body separation events during atmospheric descent require complex testing and analysis to validate the flight separation dynamics model and to verify no recontact. NASA Orion Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) teams examined key model parameters and risk areas to develop a robust but affordable test campaign in order to validate and verify the Forward Bay Cover (FBC) separation event for Exploration Flight Test‐1 (EFT‐1). The FBC jettison simulation model is highly complex, consisting of dozens of parameters varied simultaneously, with numerous multi‐parameter interactions (coupling and feedback) among the various model elements, and encompassing distinct near‐field, mid‐field, and far‐field regimes. The test campaign was composed of component‐level testing (for example gas‐piston thrusters and parachute mortars), ground FBC jettison tests, and FBC jettison air‐drop tests that were accomplished by a highly multi‐disciplinary team. Three ground jettison tests isolated the testing of mechanisms and structures to anchor the simulation models excluding aerodynamic effects. Subsequently, two air‐drop tests added aerodynamic and parachute parameters, and served as integrated system demonstrations, which had been preliminarily explored during the Orion Pad Abort‐1 (PA‐1) flight test in May 2010. Both ground and drop tests provided extensive data to validate analytical models and to verify the FBC jettison event for EFT‐1, but more testing is required to support human certification, for which NASA and Lockheed Martin are applying knowledge from Apollo and EFT‐1 testing and modeling to develop a robust but affordable human spacecraft capability.

Ali, Yasmin↗

Forward Bay Cover Separation Modeling and Testing for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

Spacecraft multi-body separation events during atmospheric descent require complex testing and analysis to validate the flight separation dynamics models used to verify no re-contact. The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) architecture includes a highly-integrated Forward Bay Cover (FBC) jettison assembly design that combines parachutes and piston thrusters to separate the FBC from the Crew Module (CM) and avoid re-contact. A multi-disciplinary team across numerous organizations examined key model parameters and risk areas to develop a robust but affordable test campaign in order to validate and verify the FBC separation event for Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). The FBC jettison simulation model is highly complex, consisting of dozens of parameters varied simultaneously, with numerous multi-parameter interactions (coupling and feedback) among the various model elements, and encompassing distinct near-field, mid-field, and far-field regimes. The test campaign was composed of component-level testing (for example gas-piston thrusters and parachute mortars), ground FBC jettison tests, and FBC jettison air-drop tests that were accomplished by a highly multi-disciplinary team. Three ground jettison tests isolated the testing of mechanisms and structures to anchor the simulation models excluding aerodynamic effects. Subsequently, two air-drop tests added aerodynamic and parachute elements, and served as integrated system demonstrations, which had been preliminarily explored during the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test in May 2010. Both ground and drop tests provided extensive data to validate analytical models and to verify the FBC jettison event for EFT-1. Additional testing will be required to support human certification of this separation event, for which NASA and Lockheed Martin are applying knowledge from Apollo and EFT-1 testing and modeling to develop a robust human-rated FBC separation event.

Ali, Yasmin↗

A Semi-Automated Approach for Curating a Glossary of Key Terms for Open-Source Data Queries

In FY20, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development (NA-22) to build a machine learning based modeling pipeline that could extract proliferation events of interest from open text-based data sources. As a test case, the research team targeted the identification/fusion of events and indicators that fissile core fabrication would be executed at the Savannah River Site prior to its official announcement in May of 2018. The demonstration prototype proved successful by applying natural language processing and graph theoretical techniques to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases that acted as indicators that pit production would be carried out at the Savannah River Site up to two years prior to the official announcement.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Operationally induced preferred basis in unitary quantum mechanics

The preferred-basis problem and the definite-outcome aspect of the measurement problem persist even if the detector is modeled unitarily, because experimental data are necessarily represented in a Boolean event algebra of mutually exclusive records whereas the theoretical description is naturally formulated in a noncommutative operator algebra with continuous unitary symmetry. This change of mathematical type constitutes the core of the 'cut': a structurally necessary interface from group-based kinematics to set-based counting. In the presented view the basis relevant for recorded outcomes is not determined by the system Hamiltonian alone; it is induced by the measurement mapping, i.e., by the detector channel together with the coarse-grained readout that defines an instrument. The probabilistic mapping is anchored in symmetry and measure theory: by Gleason-type uniqueness (Gleason for projections in $d>2$ and Busch's extension for Positive Operator-Valued Measures (POVMs) including $d=2$), the trace rule is the unique probability measure consistent with additivity over exclusive events and basis-independence of the unitary sector. A compact qubit--pointer model yields an induced unsharp POVM $E_\pm=\tfrac12(\id\pm η\,σ_z)$ with $η$ fixed by pointer resolution, displaying explicitly how the detector induces the relevant basis. Finally, nested-observer paradoxes are tightened into a non-composability lemma: joint assignment of outcome propositions is obstructed unless a joint instrument exists. This relocates the origin of randomness to the stochasticity of the transition rules.

Pronskikh, Vitaly [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002518174↗

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Parton labeling without matching: unveiling emergent labelling capabilities in regression models

Parton labeling methods are widely used when reconstructing collider events with top quarks or other massive particles. State-of-the-art techniques are based on machine learning and require training data with events that have been matched using simulations with truth information. In nature, there is no unique matching between partons and final state objects due to the properties of the strong force and due to acceptance effects. We propose a new approach to parton labeling that circumvents these challenges by recycling regression models. The final state objects that are most relevant for a regression model to predict the properties of a particular top quark are assigned to said parent particle without having any parton-matched training data. This approach is demonstrated using simulated events with top quarks and outperforms the widely used $χ$ 2 method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A review of artificial intelligence applications in manufacturing operations

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) can improve manufacturing efficiency, productivity, and sustainability. However, using AI in manufacturing also presents several challenges, including issues with data acquisition and management, human resources, infrastructure, as well as security risks, trust, and implementation challenges. For example, getting the data needed to train AI models can be difficult for rare events or costly for large datasets that need labeling. AI models can also pose security risks when integrated into industrial control systems. In addition, some industry players may be hesitant to use AI due to a lack of trust or understanding of how it works. Despite these challenges, AI has the potential to be extremely helpful in manufacturing, particularly in applications such as predictive maintenance, quality assurance, and process optimization. It is important to consider the specific needs and capabilities of each manufacturing scenario when deciding whether and how to use AI in manufacturing. This review identifies current developments, challenges, and future directions in AI/ML relevant to manufacturing, with the goal of improving understanding of AI/ML technologies available for solving manufacturing problems, providing decision‐support for prioritizing and selecting appropriate AI/ML technologies, and identifying areas where further research can yield transformational returns for the industry. Early experience suggests that AI/ML can have significant cost and efficiency benefits in manufacturing, especially when combined with the ability to capture enormous amounts of data from manufacturing systems.

Plathottam, Siby Jose↗

Reconstruction of fast neutron direction in segmented organic detectors using deep learning

A method for reconstructing the direction of a fast neutron source using a segmented organic scintillator-based detector and deep learning model is proposed and analyzed. Here, the model is based on recurrent neural network, which can be trained by a sequence of data obtained from an event recorded in the detector and suitably pre-processed. The performance of deep learning-based model is compared with the conventional double-scatter detection algorithm in reconstructing the direction of a fast neutron source. With the deep learning model, the uncertainty in source direction of 0.301 rad is achieved with 100 neutron detection events in a segmented cubic organic scintillator detector with a side length of 46 mm. To reconstruct the source direction with the same angular resolution as the double-scatter algorithm, the deep learning method requires 75% fewer events. Application of this method could augment the operation of segmented detectors operated in the neutron scatter camera configuration for applications such as special nuclear material detection.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Passage of Bolides Through the Atmosphere

Different fragmentation models are applied to a number of events, including the entry of TC3 2008 asteroid in order to reproduce existing observational data. Keywords meteoroid entry fragmentation modeling 1 Introduction Fragmentation is a very important phenomenon which occurs during the meteoroid entry into the atmosphere and adds more drastic effects than mere deceleration and ablation. Modeling of bolide fragmentation (100 106 kg in mass) may be divided into several approaches. Detail fitting of observational data (deceleration and/or light curves) allows the determination of some meteoroid parameters (ablation and shape-density coefficients, fragmentation points, amount of mass loss) (Ceplecha et al. 1993; Ceplecha and ReVelle 2005). Observational data with high accuracy are needed for the gross-fragmentation model (Ceplecha et al. 1993), which is used for the analysis of European and Desert bolide networks data. Hydrodynamical models, which describe the entry of the meteoroid including evolution of its material, are applied mainly for large bodies (>106 kg) (Boslough et al. 1994; Svetsov et al. 1995; Shuvalov and Artemieva 2002, and others). Numerous papers were devoted to the application of standard equations for large meteoroid entry in the attempts to reproduce dynamics and/or radiation for different bolides and to predict meteorite falls. These modeling efforts are often supplemented by different fragmentation models (Baldwin and Sheaffer, 1971; Borovi.ka et al. 1998; Artemieva and Shuvalov, 2001; Bland and Artemieva, 2006, and others). The fragmentation may occur in different ways. For example, few large fragments are formed. These pieces initially interact through their shock waves and then continue their flight independently. The progressive fragmentation model suggests that meteoroids are disrupted into fragments, which continue their flight as independent bodies and may be disrupted further. Similar models were suggested in numerous papers, beginning with Levin (1956) and initial interaction of fragments started to be taken into account after the paper by Passey and Melosh (1980). The progressive fragmentation model with lateral spreading of formed fragments is widely used (Artemieva and Shuvalov, 1996; Nemtchinov and Popova, 1997; Borovi.ka et al. 1998; Bland and Artemieva, 2006).

Popova, O.↗

Analysis of Conservation Voltage Reduction under Inverter-Based VAR-Support [Slides]

Conservation voltage reduction (CVR) is a common technique used by utilities to strategically reduce demand during peak periods. As penetration levels of distributed generation (DG) continue to rise and advanced inverter capabilities become more common, it is unclear how the effectiveness of CVR will be impacted and how CVR interacts with advanced inverter functions. In this work, we investigated the mutual impacts of CVR and DG from photovoltaic (PV) systems (with and without autonomous Volt-VAR enabled). The analysis was conducted on an actual utility dataset, including a feeder model, measurement data from smart meters and intelligent reclosers, and metadata for more than 30 CVR events triggered by the utility over the year. The installed capacity of the modeled PV systems represented 66% of peak load, but reached instantaneous penetrations reached up to 2.5x the load consumption over the year. While the objectives of CVR and autonomous Volt-VAR are opposed to one another, this study found that their interactions were mostly inconsequential since the CVR events occurred when total PV output was low.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improvement and generalization of ABCD method with Bayesian inference

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors, such as the capabilities and the performance of the accelerator and detectors, the use and exploitation of the available information, the design of search strategies and observables, as well as the proposal of new models. We focus on the use of the information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning techniques and tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b p p → h h → b b ‾ b b ‾ , selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with 1% and 0.5% true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal. We discuss potential prospects for taking this Bayesian data-driven paradigm into more realistic scenarios.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗

Data-Driven Simulation-Based Planning for Electric Airport Shuttle Systems: A Real-World Case Study

Many airports are adopting battery electric buses in their shuttle fleets due to concerns over air quality and regulations. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization modeling framework to help airport shuttle operators effectively deploy electric buses. We evaluated a planned airport electric shuttle system with an event-driven simulator. Empirical data collected from existing systems were used to drive the simulations. We then proposed a simulation-based optimization model to determine the battery capacity, charging power, and number of chargers so that predefined objective(s) (e.g., minimizing total capital cost, minimizing emissions) are optimized. Compared to existing studies, the primary contribution of the proposed method is that it can model the real-world stochastic nature of operations in an electric bus system with much higher fidelity. To demonstrate the proposed modeling framework, we study a real-world shuttle system at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, and present extensive numerical studies. When considering partial fleet electrification, the model can provide a set of Pareto optimal solutions. When considering full fleet electrification, the optimal solution requires a 50-kWh battery capacity and four 210-kW chargers, resulting in a total capital cost of $26,744,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework can effectively optimize the planning of electric airport shuttle systems with partial or full fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Automation is all you need: Faster Earth system models with AI/ML

Focal Area: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced methods. Science Challenge: Tropical cyclones can in- duce extreme water cycle events through dramatic precipitation and storm surge. More reliable models of intensity will translate into better prediction of the impact of extreme events in large scale Earth systems simulations. We demonstrate and describe AI/ML methodologies for rapid assimilation of new, in situ data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗