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Results for “ensemble simulations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Observational evidence and climate model experiments suggest a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) since the mid-1990s. Increased greenhouse gases and the declined anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) over North America and Europe are believed to contribute to the AMOC slowdown. Asian AAs continue to increase but the associated impact has been unclear. Using ensembles of climate simulations, here we show that the radiative cooling resulting from increased Asian AAs drives an AMOC reduction. The increased AAs over Asia generate circumglobal stationary Rossby waves in the northern midlatitudes, which shift the westerly jet stream southward and weaken the subpolar North Atlantic westerlies. Consequently, reduced transport of cold air from North America hinders water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea and thus contributes to the AMOC slowdown. The link between increased Asian AAs and an AMOC slowdown is supported by different models with different configurations. Thus, reducing emissions of Asian AAs will not only lower local air pollution, but also help stabilize the AMOC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of nonequilibrium LO phonons, Pauli exclusion, and intervalley pathways on the relaxation of hot carriers in InGaAs/InGaAsP multi-quantum-wells

Under continuous-wave laser excitation in a lattice-matched In 0.53 Ga 0.47 As/In 0.8 Ga 0.2 As 0.44 P 0.56 multi-quantum-well (MQW) structure, the carrier temperature extracted from photoluminescence rises faster for 405 nm compared with 980 nm excitation, as the injected carrier density increases. Ensemble Monte Carlo simulation of the carrier dynamics in the MQW system shows that this carrier temperature rise is dominated by nonequilibrium LO phonon effects, with the Pauli exclusion having a significant effect at high carrier densities. Further, we find a significant fraction of carriers reside in the satellite L-valleys for 405 nm excitation due to strong intervalley transfer, leading to a cooler steady-state electron temperature in the central valley compared with the case when intervalley transfer is excluded from the model. Good agreement between experiment and simulation has been shown, and detailed analysis has been presented. This study expands our knowledge of the dynamics of the hot carrier population in semiconductors, which can be applied to further limit energy loss in solar cells.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extensions of a classical mechanics “piston-model” for understanding the impact of asymmetry on ICF implosions: The cases of mode 2, mode 2/1 coupling, time-dependent asymmetry, and the relationship to coast-time

As long suspected, low mode asymmetry in inertially confined fusion (ICF) implosions has been implicated as a performance limiting factor [Casey et al., “Evidence of three-dimensional asymmetries seeded by high-density carbon-ablator nonuniformity in experiments at the national ignition facility,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 025002 (2021)]. Recently a non-linear, but solvable, theory [Hurricane et al., “An analytic asymmetric-piston model for the impact of mode-1 shell asymmetry on ICF implosions,” Phys. Plasmas 27, 062704 (2020)] based upon the simple picture of a pair of asymmetric pistons has generated new insights and provided some practical formulas for estimating the degradation of an implosion due to mode-1 asymmetry and demonstrated a previously unrecognized connection between measured hot-spot drift velocity, nuclear down-scatter ratio asymmetry, and the concept of residual kinetic energy (RKE). Asymmetry of the implosion “shell,” as opposed to asymmetry of the hot-spot, was key to the classical mechanics model because the majority of the kinetic energy in an implosion is carried by the shell. Herein, the two-piston model is extended to a six-piston model in order to capture mode-2 asymmetry and coupling between mode-1 and mode-2. A key result of this new six-piston model is that the weighted harmonic mean of shell areal density is the fundamental quantity that determines the RKE and performance degradations for a three-dimensional implosion. Agreement is found between the scalings coming from the theory and ICF implosion data from the National Ignition Facility and to large ensembles of detailed simulations. The connection between the piston model's dependence upon the radius of peak velocity and coast-time is also highlighted in this paper. Finally, by extending the two-piston model to include time-dependent “swing,” it is shown in the Appendix that the shell asymmetry at the time of stagnation dominates the solution for RKE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced analysis of experimental x-ray spectra through deep learning

X-ray spectroscopic data from high-energy-density laser-produced plasmas has long required thorough, time-consuming analysis to extract meaningful source conditions. There are often confounding factors due to rapidly evolving states and finite spatial gradients (e.g., the existence of multi-temperature, multi-density, multi-ionization states, etc.) that make spectral measurements and analysis difficult. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning can be applied to enhance x-ray spectral data analysis in both speed and intricacy. Neural networks (NNs) are trained on ensemble atomic physics simulations so that they can subsequently construct a model capable of extracting plasma parameters directly from experimental spectra. Through deep learning, the models can extract temperature distributions as opposed to single or dual temperature/density fits from standard trial-and-error atomic modeling at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional trial-and-error methods. These NNs are envisioned to be deployed with high repetition rate x-ray spectrometers in order to provide detailed real-time analysis of experimental spectra.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Thomson scattering of a tightly focused relativistically intense laser pulse by an ensemble of particles

We report a study of the process of nonlinear Thomson scattering (NTS) of a tightly focused relativistically intense laser pulse by an ensemble of electrons simulating the result of ionisation of an ultrathin nanofoil. The description of all six components of a laser pulse is based on the Stratton – Chu integrals describing radiation focused by an off-axis parabolic mirror into a spot down to the diffraction limit, which is of practical interest for modern experiments with extreme-intensity lasers, including diagnostics of their parameters. The interaction of a laser pulse with electrons is simulated by the test-particle method, and the resulting trajectories are used to calculate the characteristics of secondary electromagnetic radiation. The effect of the laser-pulse focal spot diameter in the range λ – 6λ on the angular distributions of the radiated energy and NTS spectra, as well as of a laser-beam peak intensity of 10{sup 21} – 10{sup 22} W cm{sup −2} on the spectral width of the secondary radiation is studied in relation to the experimentally implemented focusing scheme using the example of a laser pulse with an initial homogeneous spatial distribution and a duration of ∼25 fs. (interaction of laser radiation with matter. laser plasma)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A neural network for determination of latent dimensionality in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) has proven to be a powerful unsupervised learning method for uncovering hidden features in complex and noisy datasets with applications in data mining, text recognition, dimension reduction, face recognition, anomaly detection, blind source separation, and many other fields. An important input for NMF is the latent dimensionality of the data, that is, the number of hidden features, K, present in the explored dataset. Unfortunately, and this quantity is rarely known a priori. The existing methods for determining latent dimensionality, such as Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD), are mostly heuristic and utilize different characteristics to estimate the number of hidden features. However, all of them require human presence to make a final determination of K. Here we utilize a supervised machine learning approach in combination with a recent method for model determination, called NMFk, to determine the number of hidden features automatically. NMFk performs a set of NMF simulations on an ensemble of matrices, obtained by bootstrapping the initial dataset, and estimates which K produces stable groups of latent features that reconstruct the initial dataset well. We then train a Multi-Layter Perceptron (MLP) classifier network to determine the correct number of latent features utilizing the statistics and characteristics of the NMF solution, obtained from NMFk. In order to train the MLP classifier, a training set of 58,660 matrices with predetermined latent features were factorized with NMFk. The MLP classifier in conjunction with NMFk maintains a greater than 95% success rate when applied to a held out test set. Additionally, when applied to two well-known benchmark datasets, the swimmer and MIT face data, NMFk/MLP correctly recovers the established number of hidden features. Finally, we compare the accuracy of our method to the ARD, AIC and Stability-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning of accurate force field of ferroelectric HfO 2

The discovery of ferroelectricity in HfO 2 -based thin films opens up new opportunities for using this silicon-compatible ferroelectric to realize low-power logic circuits and high-density nonvolatile memories. The functional performances of ferroelectrics are intimately related to their dynamic responses to external stimuli such as electric fields at finite temperatures. Molecular dynamics is an ideal technique for investigating dynamical processes on large length and time scales, though its applications to new materials are often hindered by the limited availability and accuracy of classical force fields. Here we present a deep neural network–based interatomic force field of HfO 2 learned from ab initio data using a concurrent learning procedure. The model potential is able to predict structural properties such as elastic constants, equation of states, phonon dispersion relationships, and phase transition barriers of various hafnia polymorphs with accuracy comparable with density functional theory calculations. Here, the validity of this model potential is further confirmed by the reproduction of experimental sequences of temperature-driven ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transitions of HfO 2 with isobaric-isothermal ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. We suggest a general approach to extend the model potential of HfO 2 to related material systems including dopants and defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computing Free Energies with Fluctuation Relations on Quantum Computers

As a central thermodynamic property, free energy enables the calculation of virtually any equilibrium property of a physical system, allowing for the construction of phase diagrams and predictions about transport, chemical reactions, and biological processes. Thus, methods for efficiently computing free energies, which in general is a difficult problem, are of great interest to broad areas of physics and the natural sciences. The majority of techniques for computing free energies target classical systems, leaving the computation of free energies in quantum systems less explored. Recently developed fluctuation relations enable the computation of free energy differences in quantum systems from an ensemble of dynamic simulations. While performing such simulations is exponentially hard on classical computers, quantum computers can efficiently simulate the dynamics of quantum systems. Here, we present an algorithm utilizing a fluctuation relation known as the Jarzynski equality to approximate free energy differences of quantum systems on a quantum computer. In this work we discuss under which conditions our approximation becomes exact, and under which conditions it serves as a strict upper bound. Furthermore, we successfully demonstrate a proof of concept of our algorithm using the transverse field Ising model on a real quantum processor. As quantum hardware continues to improve, we anticipate that our algorithm will enable computation of free energy differences for a wide range of quantum systems useful across the natural sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pulsed studies of intervalley transfer in Al 0.35 In 0.65 As: A paradigm for valley photovoltaics

Al 0.35 In 0.65 As is a direct semiconductor whose multivalley conduction-band structure has been proposed for use in so-called valley photovoltaics. In such hot-carrier solar cells, energetic (hot) photocarriers are stored in satellite valleys away from the Γ point, allowing them to be extracted prior to thermalization and to thereby increase power-conversion efficiency. While prior theoretical work has highlighted the potential of Al 0.35 In 0.65 As—a widely used barrier material in electronic and optoelectronic devices, for use in valley photovoltaics—surprisingly little is known about its electrical properties, especially how these are impacted by the application of high fields. In this work, we therefore undertake a detailed characterization of the electrical properties of Te-doped ($\textit{n}$-type) Al 0.35 In 0.65 As, over wide ranges of temperature (3–400 K) and electric field (<50 kV/cm). Using pulsed measurements to suppress the influence of Joule heating, we reveal the presence of clear negative-differential conductance in the current-voltage characteristics of the films, suggestive of the intervalley transfer of hot electrons. This conclusion is supported by the results of ensemble Monte Carlo simulations of the hot-carrier action, which confirm the connection of the observed negative-differential conductance to hot-electron transfer from the conduction-band (Γ) minimum, to the side valleys at the $\textit{L}$ point. Further, the quantitative features of the experimentally determined velocity-field curves are found to be in good agreement with the results of these calculations, providing further confidence in the role of the implied intervalley transfer mechanism. Overall, these results confirm the excellent potential of Al 0.35 In 0.65 As for use as the absorber material in hot-carrier solar cell technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel Dislocation Simulator

ParaDiS, or Parallel Dislocation Simulator, is a simulation tool that performs direct numerical simulation of dislocation ensembles, the carriers of plasticity, to predict the strength in crystalline materials from the fundamental physics of defect motion, evolution, and interaction. The code has been successfully deployed on high performance computing architectures and used to study the origins of strength and strain hardening for cubic crystals, the strength of micro-pillars, and irradiated materials at LLNL. The ParaDiS code has been successfully deployed on more than one hundred thousand CPU's with over ten million active degrees of freedom.

Bulatov, Vasily↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Climate Modeling System Using AI-assisted Process Emulators

This white paper addresses Focus Area II. We advocate developing a hybrid modeling system to improve the understanding of decadal- and longer-scale predictability of high impact water cycle components. This hybrid model combines a partial differential equation (PDE)-based dynamic core with AI/ML based emulators to represent many of the computationally expensive processes in Earth’s climate models. The hybrid modeling system has the potential to exploit emerging graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated architectures and allows for the generation of large ensemble (~1000’s) simulations to better characterize the model uncertainty and understand predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Specification of Earth's Magnetic Field

As our society is increasingly dependent on technologies in space, predicting space weather becomes ever more important. We have come to rely on technologies such as cellphones, GPS, the Internet, and other commercial and military assets. In order to protect these systems a high priority is to develop better understanding of the harmful conditions of space weather encountered in the near-Earth radiation environment which are mostly dictated by the dynamics of energetic charged particles. The main objective of our proposal was to improve the specification and forecast of the particle distribution in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere using data assimilation together with machine learning (ML) algorithms in our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic and electric fields (RAM-SCBE). Specifically, we explored the application of machine learning algorithms to emulate and improve, through infusion of observational data, the magnetic field (SCBE) of our ring current model. Our work advanced towards the characterization of the RAM-SCBE particle flux field and its potentially different simulation scenarios. We explored how the model behaves in a number of simulation scenarios in order to better understand how the model reacts to perturbations in the solar wind. We were able to capture this behavior through the simulation of an ensemble of RAM-SCB model solutions. The ensemble showed the important correlations between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. We were able to start the training of a neural network (Autoencoder) to identify the dominant features of the magnetic field, and the main correlations (linear and non-linear) between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. Our next steps consists of training a neural network to capture the time evolution of the dominant features and obtain a consistent surrogate model for the RAM-SCB.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion of continuous active-seismic monitoring data for monitoring and quantifying CO 2 plume (Final Report)

The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated package of joint seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion (jSPPI) of continuous active-source seismic monitoring dataset capable of providing real-time monitoring of CO 2 plume during geologic carbon sequestration (GCS). The three specific developments include: (a) the methodologies for fast seismic full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring, (CASSM) datasets for simultaneously estimating velocity and attenuation, and with data assimilation; (b) joint Bayesian petrophysical inversion of seismic models and pressure data for providing and updating CO 2 saturation models; (c) the methods using multiple datasets including (Crainfield and Frio-II borehole) synthetic, laboratory, and field CASSM datasets. The outcomes of jSPPI include (a) a workflow for processing CASSM data, (b) Bayesian inversion algorithms using CASSM data and pressure response data, and (c) integration with data assimilation algorithms for continuously updating site-specific models used for prediction and reservoir management. The validation of joint FWI will be conducted using synthetic models based on the Cranfield and Frio experiments as well as field CASSM datasets collected as part of the Frio-II pilot injection. To quantify and map the mass and distribution of CO 2 (saturation), we will jointly invert velocity and attenuation measurements from the FWI with a Bayesian approach using a rock physics model for attenuation (e.g., White’s attenuation model with two selected patch sizes (White, 1976; Dutta and Seriff, 1979)). The Bayesian inversion will be applied to each time step in the CASSM survey in an updating scheme, which integrates with an ensemble of reservoir simulations at each step. A more complete experimental validation dataset will be collected as part of a mesoscale (2-3 m) gas-CO 2 injection experiment utilizing a higher frequency version of the CASSM system developed for laboratory studies; the integrated inversion will be demonstrated using this dataset which will provide both a dense geometry as well as more precise secondary confirmation measurements (e.g. saturation) typically not available in the field. The resulting real-time map of CO 2 saturation is able to provide a deeper scientific understanding of the complex, time-varying dynamics of subsurface fluid flow migration path as well as the rapid detection of CO 2 leakage hazards.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Protein Conformational States—A First Principles Bayesian Method

Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naïve Bayes classifier from the machine learning community for use on atom-to-atom pairwise contacts. The result is an unsupervised learning algorithm that samples a ‘distribution’ over potential classification schemes. We apply the classifier to a series of test structures and one real protein, showing that it identifies the conformational transition with >95% accuracy in most cases. A nontrivial feature of our adaptation is a new connection to information entropy that allows us to vary the level of structural detail without spoiling the categorization. This is confirmed by comparing results as the number of atoms and time-samples are varied over 1.5 orders of magnitude. Further, the method’s derivation from Bayesian analysis on the set of inter-atomic contacts makes it easy to understand and extend to more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges for Implementing FAIR Digital Objects with High Performance Workflows

New types of workflows are being used in science that couple traditional distributed and high-performance computing (HPC) with data-intensive approaches, and orchestrate ensembles of numerical simulations and artificial intelligence (AI) models. Such workflows may use AI models to supplement computation where numerical simulations may be too computationally expensive, to automate trivial yet time consuming operations, to perform preliminary selections among intractable numbers of combinations in domains as diverse as protein binding, fine-grid climate simulations, and drug discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗