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NASA NTRS1994

Demand access communications for TDRSS users

The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) has long been used to provide reliable low and high-data rate relay services between user spacecraft in Earth orbit and the ground. To date, these TDRSS services have been implemented via prior scheduling based upon estimates of user needs and mission event timelines. While this approach may be necessary for large users that require greater amounts of TDRSS resources, TDRSS can potentially offer the planned community of smaller science missions (e.g., the small explorer missions), and other emerging users, the unique opportunity for services on demand. In particular, innovative application of the existing TDRSS Multiple Access (MA) subsystem, with its phased array antenna, could be used to implement true demand access services without modification to either the TDRSS satellites or the user transponder, thereby introducing operational and performance benefits to both the user community and the Space Network. In this paper, candidate implementations of demand access service via the TDRSS MA subsystem are examined in detail. Both forward and return link services are addressed and a combination of qualitative and quantitative assessments are provided. The paper also identifies further areas for investigation in this ongoing activity that is being conducted by GSFC/Code 531 under the NASA Code O Advanced Systems Program.

Zillig, David↗

NASA NTRS2005

Modeling and Visualizing Flow of Chemical Agents Across Complex Terrain

Release of chemical agents across complex terrain presents a real threat to homeland security. Modeling and visualization tools are being developed that capture flow fluid terrain interaction as well as point dispersal downstream flow paths. These analytic tools when coupled with UAV atmospheric observations provide predictive capabilities to allow for rapid emergency response as well as developing a comprehensive preemptive counter-threat evacuation plan. The visualization tools involve high-end computing and massive parallel processing combined with texture mapping. We demonstrate our approach across a mountainous portion of North California under two contrasting meteorological conditions. Animations depicting flow over this geographical location provide immediate assistance in decision support and crisis management.

Kao, David↗

NASA NTRS2005

Strawman Philosophical Guide for Developing International Network of GPM GV Sites

The creation of an international network of ground validation (GV) sites that will support the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission's international science programme will require detailed planning of mechanisms for exchanging technical information, GV data products, and scientific results. An important component of the planning will be the philosophical guide under which the network will grow and emerge as a successful element of the GPM Mission. This philosophical guide should be able to serve the mission in developing scientific pathways for ground validation research which will ensure the highest possible quality measurement record of global precipitation products. The philosophical issues, in this regard, partly stem from the financial architecture under which the GV network will be developed, i.e., each participating country will provide its own financial support through committed institutions -- regardless of whether a national or international space agency is involved.At the 1st International GPM Ground Validation Workshop held in Abingdon, UK in November-2003, most of the basic tenants behind the development of the international GV network were identified and discussed. Therefore, with this progress in mind, this presentation is intended to put forth a strawman philosophical guide supporting the development of the international network of GPM GV sites, noting that the initial progress has been reported in the Proceedings of the 1st International GPM GV Workshop -- available online. The central philosophical issues themselves, all flow from the fact that each participating institution can only bring to the table, GV facilities and scientific personnel that are affordable to the sanctioning (funding) national agency (be that a research, research-support, or operational agency). This situation imposes on the network, heterogeneity in the measuring sensors, data collection periods, data collection procedures, data latencies, and data reporting capabilities. Therefore, in order for the network to be effective in supporting the central scientific goals of the GPM mission, there must be a basic agreed upon doctrine under which the network participants function vis-a-vis: (1) an overriding set of general scientific requirements, (2) a minimal set of policies governing the free flow of GV data between the scientific participants, (3) a few basic definitions concerning the prioritization of measurements and their respective value to the mission, (4) a few basic procedures concerning data formats, data reporting procedures, data access, and data archiving, and (5) a simple means to differentiate GV sites according to their level of effort and ability to perform near real-time data acquisition - data reporting tasks. Most important, in case they choose to operate as a near real-time data collection-data distribution site, they would be expected to operate under a fairly narrowly defined protocol needed to ensure smooth GV support operations. This presentation will suggest measures responsive to items (1) - (5) from which to proceed,. In addition, this presentation will seek to stimulate discussion and debate concerning how much heterogeneity is tolerable within the eventual GV site network, given that the any individual GV site can only be considered scientifically useful if it supports the achievement of the central GPM Mission goals. Only ground validation research that has a direct connection to the space mission should be considered justifiable given the overarching scientific goals of the mission. Therefore each site will have to seek some level of accommodation to what the GPM Mission requires in the way of retrieval error characterization, retrieval error detection and reporting, and generation of GV data products that support assessment and improvement of the mission's standard precipitation retrieval algorithms. These are all important scientific issues that will be best resolved in open scientific debate.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2005

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) was chartered by Congress, under the leadership of President Abraham Lincoln, to provide scientific and technical advice to the government of the United States. Over the years, the advisory program of the institution has expanded, leading to the establishment of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the Institute of Medicine, and of the National Research Council (NRC), the operational arm of the National Academies. The original charter of the Space Science Board was established in June 1958, three months before NASA opened its doors. The Space Science Board and its successor, the Space Studies Board (SSB), have provided expert external and independent scientific and programmatic advice to NASA on a continuous basis from NASA's inception until the present. The Board has also provided such advice to other agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Department of Defense, and responds to requests from Congress. Early in 2005, the leadership of NASA changed, and with it new emphases emerged. Some of the early interpretations of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration, in which only certain aspects of space science were encouraged, disappeared and a broader mandate for science emerged. But what also emerged was fiscal reality, which precluded many of the exciting activities that were planned for NASA's science programs. In this environment of change, there has been a continuing need to evaluate NASA's plans against the strategies for science that have been laid down in the various NRC decadal surveys, and to assist NASA in determining how best to proceed given the reduced level of resources it will have. Coupled with this has been a continuing need to provide Congress with the assessments of NASA's plans that it requests.

National Research Council (NRC)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Mars Surface Systems Common Capabilities and Challenges for Human Missions

This paper describes the current status of common systems and operations as they are applied to actual locations on Mars that are representative of Exploration Zones (EZ) - NASA's term for candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the Martian surface. Given NASA's current concepts for human missions to Mars, an EZ is a collection of Regions of Interest (ROIs) located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas that are relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. An EZ also contains a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. The Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC), a description of NASA's current approach to these human Mars missions, assumes that a single EZ will be identified within which NASA will establish a substantial and durable surface infrastructure that will be used by multiple human crews. The process of identifying and eventually selecting this single EZ will likely take many years to finalized. Because of this extended EZ selection process it becomes important to evaluate the current suite of surface systems and operations being evaluated for the EMC as they are likely to perform at a variety of proposed EZ locations and for the types of operations - both scientific and development - that are proposed for these candidate EZs. It is also important to evaluate proposed EZs for their suitability to be explored or developed given the range of capabilities and constraints for the types of surface systems and operations being considered within the EMC. Four locations identified in the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG)'s Human Exploration of Mars Science Analysis Group (HEM-SAG) report are used in this paper as representative of candidate EZs that will emerge from the selection process that NASA has initiated. A field station site plan is developed for each of these four HEM-SAG sites. Because of the difficulty in getting equipment and supplies to the surface of Mars, specific assessments have been conducted to identify those systems and processes that can perform in multiple, sometimes completely unrelated, situations. Examples of common systems that are assessed at all of these sites include: (a) habitation and associated logistics storage systems, (b) a centralized power plant capable of supplying power to a geographically distributed (but within the central habitation zone) set of systems, (c) mobility systems that can be used to off-load and move payloads to specific locations at the central field station location that could also be used to traverse long distances to reach some of the more remote ROIs and (d) robotic systems that can support various activities (such as system set up and maintenance) at the field station that could also be used to explore scientific ROIs and used to support site-specific ISRU (In Situ Resource Utilization) production activities.

Toups, Larry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗

NASA NTRS1992

Small Business Innovation Research. Program solicitation. Closing date: July 21, 1992

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) invites small businesses to submit Phase 1 proposals in response to its Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program Solicitation 92-1. Firms with research or research and development capabilities (R/R&D) in science or engineering in any of the areas listed are encouraged to participate. This, the tenth annual SBIR solicitation by NASA, describes the program, identifies eligibility requirements, describes the proposal evaluation and award selection process, and provides other information to assist those interested in participating in NASA's SBIR program. It also identifies, in Section 8.0, the technical topics and subtopics in which SBIR Phase 1 proposals are solicited in 1992. These topics and subtopics cover a broad range of current NASA interests but do not necessarily include all areas in which NASA plans or currently conducts research. The NASA SBIR program seeks innovative approaches that respond to the needs, technical requirements, and new opportunities described in the subtopics. The focus is on innovation through the use of emerging technologies, novel applications of existing technologies, exploitation of scientific breakthroughs, or new capabilities or major improvements to existing technologies. NASA plans to select about 320 high-quality research or research and development proposals for Phase 1 contract awards on the basis of this Solicitation. Phase 1 contracts are normally six months in duration and funded up to $50,000, including profit. Selections will be based on the competitive merits of the offers and on NASA needs and priorities.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1971

Lunar mission safety and rescue: Escape/rescue analysis and plan

The results are presented of the technical analysis of escape/rescue/survival situations, crew survival techniques, alternate escape/rescue approaches and vehicles, and the advantages and disadvantages of each for advanced lunar exploration. Candidate escape/rescue guidelines are proposed and elements of a rescue plan developed. The areas of discussions include the following: lunar arrival/departure operations, lunar orbiter operations, lunar surface operations, lunar surface base escape/rescue analysis, lander tug location operations, portable airlock, emergency pressure suit, and the effects of no orbiting lunar station, no lunar surface base, and no foreign lunar orbit/surface operations on the escape/rescue plan.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Decision Support Tool for Planning Neighborhood-Scale Deployment of Low-Speed Shared Automated Shuttles

Increasing interest and investment in connected, automated, and electric vehicles, and mobility-as-a-service concepts are paving the way for the next major shift in transportation through automated and shared mobility. The initial excitement towards rapid deployment and adoption of automated vehicles has subsided, and low-speed automated shuttles are emerging as a more pragmatic pathway for introducing automated mobility in geo-fenced districts. Such shuttles hold the promise to provide a viable alternative for serving short trips in urban districts with high travel densities. As interest in low-speed automated shuttle systems (to improve urban mobility) increases, the need for tools that can inform communities regarding benefits or dis-benefits of automated shuttle deployments is imminent. However, most of the existing transportation planning and simulation tools are not capable of handling emerging shared automated mobility options. This presentation presents a microscopic simulation toolkit that can be used by cities and communities to plan for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles systems, as well as other shared mobility options. Labeled as the Automated Mobility District (AMD) modeling and simulation toolkit, the proposed decision support tool can help cities evaluate the mobility and sustainability impacts of deploying shared automated vehicles in geofenced regions. This paper presents a description of the toolkit, as well as a sample scenario analysis for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles in Greenville, South Carolina. Results from the scenario study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed simulation toolkit in planning for advanced mobility systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Guide to Energy Master Planning of High-Performance Districts and Communities

This guide was developed with partners throughout the United States to demonstrate how implementing district-scale high-performance strategies can be successful and scalable approaches to achieving deep energy savings that increase affordability, improve resilience, reduce emissions, and foster economic development. This document serves as a framework for districts, campuses, and communities, illustrating an iterative process of building support for, planning, and implementing high-performance districts by engaging stakeholders, setting aggressive energy goals, completing technical and financial planning, and implementing a high-performance energy master plan. The information in this guide is based on a 3-year U.S. Department of Energy Zero Energy District Accelerator and a range of real-world examples of emerging high-performance districts. It is particularly useful for architects, planners, engineers, local government agencies, and real estate developers in the early phases of planning a district with high-performance or other deep energy goals. For the purposes of this guide, a high-performance district is a multibuilding development that achieves aggressive energy and related goals such as zero energy, carbon neutrality, sustainability, ultra-efficiency, etc. High-performance districts optimize energy efficiency to reduce energy loads and use renewable energy resources to meet the remaining loads whenever possible. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 defines a high-performance building as “a building that integrates and optimizes on a life cycle basis all major high-performance attributes, including energy conservation, environment, safety, security, durability, accessibility, cost-benefit, productivity, sustainability, functionality, and operational considerations.” High-performance districts are collections of such buildings that take advantage of the synergies available when energy consumption and production are considered at a district level rather than one building at a time.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment: Key Findings

Tribal land in the United States represents approximately 2% of the country's total landmass and holds more than 5% of solar photovoltaic potential (Doris, Lopez, and Beckley 2013). This resource is largely untapped. Many Tribes note that regulatory challenges often are roadblocks to taking advantage of solar potential. This report serves as a summary of a larger project, Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment. The project seeks to unlock some of this potential by bringing Tribal, regulatory, utility, and other stakeholders together to articulate key barriers to Tribal solar adoption and develop replicable solutions. By increasing institutional capacity and developing frameworks, trainings, and a technical document repository for regulatory bodies, utilities, and Tribes, this project can help expand an emerging market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decision Support Tool for Planning Neighborhood-Scale Deployment of Low-Speed Shared Automated Shuttles

Increasing interest and investment in connected, automated, and electric vehicles as well as mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) concepts are paving the way for the next major transformation in transportation through automated and shared mobility. The initial excitement toward rapid deployment and adoption of automated vehicles (AVs) has subsided, and low-speed automated shuttles are emerging as a more pragmatic pathway for introducing automated mobility in geofenced districts. Such shuttles hold the promise to provide a viable alternative for serving short trips in urban districts with high travel densities. As interest in low-speed automated shuttle systems (to improve urban mobility) increases, the need for tools that can inform communities in relation to benefits or disadvantages of automated shuttle deployments is imminent. However, most of the existing transportation planning and simulation tools are not capable of handling emerging shared automated mobility options. This paper presents a microscopic simulation toolkit that can be used by cities and communities to plan for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles systems, as well as other shared mobility options. Labeled as the Automated Mobility District modeling and simulation toolkit, the proposed decision support tool intends to help cities evaluate the mobility and sustainability impacts of deploying shared automated vehicles (SAVs) in geofenced regions. This paper describes the toolkit, as well as a sample scenario analysis for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles in Greenville, South Carolina, U.S. Results from the scenario study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed simulation toolkit in planning for advanced mobility systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2011

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

Culbert, Christopher J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States Appendix: Reference and High Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios for Three Regions [Slides]

This slide deck is an appendix to a paper series that examines potential challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations. The series uses the western U.S. power system for these investigations because it is a region the authors and their colleagues have already extensively studied. We are therefore well-suited to analyze even higher PV penetrations and then examine the results in multiple models to determine whether our current approaches are missing key details that only emerge at higher PV penetrations. This deck details the systems underlying those analyses and how they were modeled using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), a capacity expansion modeling tool. We examine both Western Interconnection-wide and regional results for three regions in the Western U.S. with significantly different existing power systems and connections to neighboring regions; this provides a more balanced picture as to how power systems with high PV penetration might emerge in different contexts and what the resulting grid challenges, if any, might be.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strong QCD from Hadron Structure Experiments

The topical workshop Strong QCD from Hadron Structure Experiments took place at Jefferson Lab from November 6–9, 2019. Impressive progress in relating hadron structure observables to the strong QCD mechanisms has been achieved from the ab initio QCD description of hadron structure in a diverse array of methods in order to expose emergent phenomena via quasi-particle formation. The wealth of experimental data and the advances in hadron structure theory make it possible to gain insight into strong interaction dynamics in the regime of large quark–gluon coupling (the strong QCD regime), which will address the most challenging problems of the Standard Model on the nature of the dominant part of hadron mass, quark–gluon confinement, and the emergence of the ground and excited state hadrons, as well as atomic nuclei, from QCD. This workshop aimed to develop plans and to facilitate the future synergistic efforts between experimentalists, phenomenologists, and theorists working on studies of hadron spectroscopy and structure with the goal to connect the properties of hadrons and atomic nuclei available from data to the strong QCD dynamics underlying their emergence from QCD. These results pave the way for a future breakthrough extension in the studies of QCD with an Electron–Ion Collider in the U.S.

Brodsky, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

DOE OSTI2021

The ERSDT Software Quality Assurance Plan Practices and Development Environment Setup for RASCAL 5

This document includes the information pertaining to the practices of the Emergency Response Software Development Team (ERSDT) for the RASCAL software project. The content includes information regarding: 1) Software Quality Assurance. 2) Project Management. 3) Configuration Management. 4) Development Standards. 5) Third-Party Software. 6) Verification and Validation. The information contained in this report is considered living documentation. The information contained in this report was assembled from multiple documents and content management systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗