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At least 361 records · Page 20

On the oceanic origin for the enhanced seasonal cycle of SST in the midlatitudes under global warming

Climate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. However, the maintaining mechanism for this enhancement is still under debate. This study investigates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under quadrupling CO2 using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 forcing (without the effect of wind changes) and wind effects can be isolated. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and total wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) effect being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback through the change of wind speed reveals the importance of the wind stress-driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic WES feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates SST seasonal cycle mainly through the mediating effects of the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD): i) the CO2 induced warming leads to MLD shoaling, thus reducing its effective heat capacity; ii) the climatological MLD is greater in winter than summer, given the same amount of energy flux from the surface, SST warming in winter should be smaller. Notably, the surface wind seasonal cycle change due solely to the direct CO2 effect is found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, implicating that the direct CO2 effect is the root source for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle. This is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that replicates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing into the ocean.

Liu, Fukai↗

Earth tides, volcanos and climatic change

The effect of variations in tidal stresses on the earth caused by the sun and moon on volcanic activity and climate is investigated. A statistically significant correlation is found between the derivatives of the envelopes of peak tidal stresses at high northern latitudes and the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere as reflected in oxygen isotope ratios in the Greenland ice cap. It is suggested that variations in tidal stresses cause changes in the amount of stratospheric dust produced by volcanic activity, which affects the thickness of the stratospheric dust veil and the atmospheric radiation balance. For a simple model, periodic variations in tidal stress account for 13% of the variance in the ice-core temperature record.

Roosen, R. G.↗

Resonant Transmissive Modulator Construction for Use in Beam Steering Array

An agile electronically configurable optical beam steering device for use in directional free-space transmission of optical signals is described. The device design employs an array of tunable resonant transmissive modulators constructed from multi-layered stacks of electro-optically active dielectric materials. Each modulator may be individually configured to transmit an optical signal with a specific amount of phase and group velocity modulation. The resulting diffractive interactions between modulator outputs provide a method for directional optical signal transmission. Of particular focus within this presentation is the optimized design of the individual modulator. It is widely known that periodic multi-layered stacks of dielectric materials exhibit reflective and transmissive resonances as described by the stack's transmission function. If an electric field is applied normal to the stack's layers, phenomena such as the electro-optic effect and/or the quantum-confined Stark effect may be employed to change the effective refractive index within the stack. This refractive index change alters the stack's transmission function and modulates the phase and group velocity of the transmitted optical signal. By varying the parameters that describe the stack's specific construction and operation, such as number of layers within the stack, refractive indexes of stack materials, layer thicknesses, and combinations of periodic verses non-periodic layer repetitions, custom transmittance functions may be generated. The transmitted optical signal carrier frequency and bandwidth must be carefully selected to maximize transmission and to minimize absorption. A computational optimization of the variables describing the stack's construction strives to maximize the amount of optical signal modulation verses applied voltage. Trade-offs between methods of increasing device performance verses the limitations of fabrication technologies are considered.

Keys, Andrew S.↗

Microgravity induced fluid and electrolyte balance changes

The effect of reduced gravity on the fluid and electrolyte balance in astronauts is discussed. The acquired data indicate an early and marked sodium and potassium loss and a negative water balance. The conditions in astronauts may be likened to the syndrome of inappropriate secretion of antidiuretic hormone, but the mechanisms by which weightlessness causes a continued negative water and electrolyte balance, after the early shifts have occurred, are not clear. It is suggested that a transient increase in the release of the atrial naturetic factor and the altered gastrointestinal function may play a role in the initial and continued fluid and electrolyte changes, respectively.

Phillips, R. W.↗

Are solar spectral variations a drive for climatic change

The effects of UV variations on atmospheric ozone content and climate for time scales encompassing the 27-day solar rotation period, the sunspot period, twice the solar magnetic, and also longer time periods are examined. The studies of the relationship between solar UV variations, atmospheric ozone content and atmospheric temperatures were conducted by estimating the impact of such variations on tropospheric temperature. The total luminosity constant is then held and the dependence of the ozone variations on the forcing period is calculated. It is concluded that solar UV variations on time scales of weeks to months occasionally perturb total ozone and stratospheric temperatures by noticeable amounts but result in only minor changes in the troposphere.

Pollack, J. R.↗

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The aerodynamic properties of thick aerofoils suitable for internal bracing

The object of this investigation was to determine the characteristics of various types of wings having sufficient depth to entirely inclose the wing bracing, and also to provide data for the further design of such sections. This type of wing is of interest because it eliminates the resistance of the interplane bracing, a portion of the airplane that sometimes absorbs one-quarter of the total power required to fly, and because these wings may be made to give a very high maximum lift. Results of the investigation of the following subjects are given: (1) effect of changing the upper and lower camber of thick aerofoils of uniform section; (2) effect of thickening the center and thinning the tips of a thin aerofoil; (3) effect of adding a convex lower surface to a tapered section; (4) effect of changing the mean thickness with constant center and tip sections; and (5) effect of varying the chord along the span.

Norton, F H↗

Wetware, Hardware, or Software Incapacitation: Observational Methods to Determine When Autonomy Should Assume Control

Control-theoretic modeling of human operator's dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long, rich history. There has been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. This research attempts to go beyond pilot identification based on experimental data to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. Two methods for pre-dicting pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and deducing changes in pilot behavior are presented This approach may also have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot. With this ability to detect changes in piloting behavior, the possibility now exists to mediate human adverse behaviors, hardware failures, and software anomalies with autono-my that may ameliorate these undesirable effects. However, appropriate timing of when au-tonomy should assume control is dependent on criticality of actions to safety, sensitivity of methods to accurately detect these adverse changes, and effects of changes in levels of auto-mation of the system as a whole.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

Characteristics of Whipple Shield Performance in the Shatter Regime

Between the onset of projectile fragmentation and the assumption of rear wall failure due to an impulsive load, multi-wall ballistic limit equations are linearly interpolated to provide reasonable yet conservative predictions of perforation thresholds with conveniently simple mathematics. Although low velocity and hypervelocity regime predictions are based on analytical expressions, there is no such scientific foundation for predictions in the intermediate (or shatter) regime. As the debris flux in low earth orbit (LEO) becomes increasingly dominated by manmade pollution, the profile of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk shifts continually towards lower velocities. For the International Space Station (ISS), encounter velocities below 7 km/s now constitute approximately 50% of the penetration risk. Considering that the transition velocity from shatter to hypervelocity impact regimes described by common ballistic limit equations (e.g. new non-optimum Whipple shield equation [1]) occurs at 7 km/s, 50% of station risk is now calculated based on failure limit equations with little analytical foundation. To investigate projectile and shield behavior for impact conditions leading to projectile fragmentation and melt, a series of hypervelocity impact tests have been performed on aluminum Whipple shields. In the experiments projectile diameter, bumper thickness, and shield spacing were kept constant, while rear wall thickness was adjusted to determine spallation and perforation limits at various impact velocities and angles. The results, shown in Figure 1 for normal and 45 impacts, demonstrated behavior that was not sufficiently described by the simplified linear interpolation of the NNO equation (also shown in Figure 1). Hopkins et al. [2] investigated the performance of a nominally-identical aluminum Whipple shield, identifying the effects of phase change in the shatter regime. The results (conceptually represented in Figure 2) were found to agree well with those obtained in this study at normal incidence, suggesting that shielding performance in the shatter regime could be well described by considering more complex phase conditions than currently implemented in most BLEs. Furthermore, evidence of these phase effects were found in the oblique test results, providing the basis for an empirical description of these effects that can be applied in MMOD risk assessment software. In this paper, results of the impact experiments are presented, and characteristics of target damage are evaluated. A comparison of intermediate velocity impact failure mechanisms in current BLEs are discussed and compared to the findings of the experimental study. Risk assessment calculations have been made on a simplified structure using currently implemented penetration equations and predicted limits from the experimental program, and the variation in perceived mission risk is discussed. It was found that ballistic limit curves that explicitly incorporated phase change effects within the intermediate regime lead to a decrease in predicted MMOD risk for ISS-representative orbits. When considered for all Whipple-based shielding configurations onboard the ISS, intermediate phase change effects could lead to significant variations in predicted mission risk.

Ryan, Shannon↗

Thermal modeling of phase change solidification in thermal control devices including natural convection effects

Natural convection effects in phase change thermal control devices were studied. A mathematical model was developed to evaluate natural convection effects in a phase change test cell undergoing solidification. Although natural convection effects are minimized in flight spacecraft, all phase change devices are ground tested. The mathematical approach to the problem was to first develop a transient two-dimensional conduction heat transfer model for the solidification of a normal paraffin of finite geometry. Next, a transient two-dimensional model was developed for the solidification of the same paraffin by a combined conduction-natural-convection heat transfer model. Throughout the study, n-hexadecane (n-C16H34) was used as the phase-change material in both the theoretical and the experimental work. The models were based on the transient two-dimensional finite difference solutions of the energy, continuity, and momentum equations.

Ukanwa, A. O.↗

Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

The effect of volume phase changes, mass transport, sunlight penetration, and densification on the thermal regime of icy regoliths

The present quantitative modeling of convective, condensational, and sublimational effects on porous ice crust volumes subjected to solar radiation encompasses the effect of such insolation's penetration of visible bandpass-translucent light, but opaque to the IR bandpass. Quasi-steady-state temperatures, H2O mass fluxes, and ice mass-density change rates are computed as functions of time of day and ice depth. When the effects of latent heat and mass transport are included in the model, the enhancement of near-surface temperature due to the 'solid-state greenhouse effect' is substantially diminished. When latent heat, mass transport, and densification effects are considered, however, a significant solid-state greenhouse effect is shown to be compatible with both morphological evidence for high crust strengths and icy shell decoupling from the lithosphere.

Fanale, Fraser P.↗

The effects of tantalum on the microstructure of two polycrystalline nickel-base superalloys - B-1900 + Hf and MAR-M247

The effect of changing the content of Ta on the gamma/gamma-prime carbide microstructure was investigated in two crystalline nickel-base superalloys: conventionally cast B-1900 + Hf, and both conventionally cast and directionally solidified MAR-M247. The changes occurring in the microstructure effects were similar in both alloys. The gamma-prime and carbide volume fractions increased linearly with Ta additions, while the gamma-prime phase compositions did not change. Bulk Ta additions increased the levels of Cr and Co (in addition to that of Ta) of the gamma phase, a result of the approximately constant partitioning ratios for these two elements. The addition of Ta led to a partial replacement of Hf in the MC carbides. In addition, Cr-rich M(23)C(6) carbides formed as a result of MC carbide decomposition during heat treatment.

Heckel, R. W.↗

Direct simulations of premixed turbulent flames with nonunity Lewis numbers

A principal effect of turbulence on premixed flames in the flamelet regime is to wrinkle the flame fronts. For nonunity Lewis numbers, Le is not equal to 1, the local flame structure is altered in curved regions. This effect is examined using direct numerical simulations of 3D isotropic turbulence with constant density, single-step Arrhenius kinetics chemistry. Simulations of Lewis numbers 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 are compared. At the local level, curvature effects dominated changes to the flame structure while strain effects were insignificant. A strong Lewis-number-dependent correlation was found between surface curvature and the local flame speed. The correlation was positive for Le less than 1 and negative for Le greater than 1. At the global level, strain-related effects were more significant than curvature effects. The turbulent flame speed changed significantly with Lewis number, increasing as Le decreased. This was found to be due to strain effects that have a nonzero mean over the flame surface, rather than to curvature effects that have a nearly zero mean. The mean product temperature was also found to vary with Lewis number, being higher for Le greater than 1 and lower for Le less than 1.

Rutland, C. J.↗

Experiments at Sandia to Measure the Effect of Temperature on Critical Systems

Estimation of the uncertainty in a critical experiment attributable to uncertainties in the measured experiment temperature is done by calculating the variation of the eigenvalue of a benchmark configuration as a function of temperature. In the low-enriched water-moderated critical experiments performed at Sandia, this is done by 1) estimating the effects of changing the water temperature while holding the UO 2 fuel temperature constant, 2) estimating the effects of changing the UO 2 temperature while holding the water temperature constant, and 3) combining the two results. This assumes that the two effects are separable. The results of such an analysis are nonintuitive and need experimental verification. Critical experiments are being planned at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to measure the effect of temperature on critical systems and will serve to test the methods used in estimating the temperature effects in critical experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Experiments at Sandia to Measure the Effect of Temperature on Critical Systems [Slides]

Estimation of the uncertainty in a critical experiment attributable to uncertainties in the measured experiment temperature is done by calculating the variation of the eigenvalue of a benchmark configuration as a function of temperature. In the low-enriched water-moderated critical experiments performed at Sandia, this is done by 1) estimating the effects of changing the water temperature while holding the UO 2 fuel temperature constant, 2) estimating the effects of changing the UO 2 temperature while holding the water temperature constant, and 3) combining the two results. This assumes that the two effects are separable. The results of such an analysis are nonintuitive and need experimental verification. Critical experiments are being planned at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to measure the effect of temperature on critical systems and will serve to test the methods used in estimating the temperature effects in critical experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗