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At least 361 records · Page 20

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗

Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles

Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Physics-Based↗

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗

The Solar Clock

The Sun is powered by a very stable source of fusion energy in its core that radiates that energy outward in a constant flow. Yet it has a cycle of magnetic dynamo activity whose strength and duration are variable. This variability, which affects the Earth's ‘space climate', points to temporal changes in the convective and diffusive transport of magnetic flux above the tachocline, where the flux is generated. The longest record we have of this variability is the time series of Sunspot Numbers (SSN). This record suggests that the interior of the Sun follows a clocklike magnetic flux production cycle with a length of close to 11.05 yr. The variations in sunspot cycle duration, as well as the sunspot number rise and fall times, their hemispheric asymmetries, and the maximum sunspot numbers of the individual cycles, are likely produced in the process of the magnetic flux transport. Helioseismology continues to shed more light on the convection zone variabilities, including the ‘torsional oscillations' that seem to have a special connection to the emerging strong magnetic fluxes that produce the sunspots. These new observations may eventually lead to an explanation for the surprisingly good correlation between the rate of sunspot appearance and the maximum sunspot number, and to a better understanding of the relationship between the solar dynamo and the sunspot number cycle. Better understanding of the polar regions awaits long-term monitoring with a polar solar mission. Better predictions of nearterm space weather could be obtained from a permanent L5 monitor.

C T Russell↗

Inner Magnetospheric Physics

The inner magnetosphere extends from just above the topside ionosphere to approximately 8 RE geocentric distance. Magnetospheric physics is a young science that only started to be recognized as a region with the space observations by Explorer 1 in 1958. The region is mostly populated by ionized gas or plasma from Earth’s ionosphere. Plasma populations are differentiated by their energies primarily. From the least energetic to most are the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts, extending from about 1 eV to 10 MeV in energy and from 1,000s cm-3 down to a few particles per cubic centimeter and less, respectively. The solar wind and solar erupted coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arriving and interacting with Earth’s magnetic field creates a dynamo effect that drives million ampere currents along magnetic field lines that close through the ionosphere. The solar wind dynamo also creates a 100s kV electric field across the magnetosphere that drives convective motion of the plasma within it. The solar wind driven currents compress Earth’s magnetic field on the sunward side and greatly extents the field on the nightside to form the magnetotail. The energy stored in the magnetotail is impulsively released when magnetic field lines there merge, releasing energy into the plasma trapped by the magnetic field. Those plasma become the ring current that loses plasma into the atmosphere to produce the aurora and at the same time ring current plasma can be further energized by wave-particle interactions to become the radiation belts. The presentation will review these topics and a few of the underlying physical processes that are involved in this highly coupled planetary system.

inner magnetosphere↗

Energy balance and Alfvén Mach numbers in compressible magnetohydrodynamic turbulence with a large-scale magnetic field

Energy equipartition is a powerful theoretical tool for understanding astrophysical plasmas. It is invoked, for example, to measure magnetic fields in the interstellar medium (ISM), as evidence for small-scale turbulent dynamo action, and, in general, to estimate the energy budget of star-forming molecular clouds. Here, in this study, we motivate and explore the role of the volume-averaged root-mean-squared (rms) magnetic coupling term between the turbulent, δB , and large-scale, B 0 , fields, $\langle$(δB·B 0 ) 2 $\rangle$$_{V}^{1/2}$. By considering the second moments of the energy balance equations we show that the rms coupling term is in energy equipartition with the volume-averaged turbulent kinetic energy for turbulence with a sub-Alfvénic large-scale field. Under the assumption of exact energy equipartition between these terms, we derive relations for the magnetic and coupling term fluctuations, which provide excellent, parameter-free agreement with time-averaged data from 280 numerical simulations of compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. Furthermore, we explore the relation between the turbulent mean field and total Alfvén Mach numbers, and demonstrate that sub-Alfvénic turbulence can only be developed through a strong, large-scale magnetic field, which supports an extremely super-Alfvénic turbulent magnetic field. This means that the magnetic field fluctuations are significantly subdominant to the velocity fluctuations in the sub-Alfvénic large-scale field regime. Throughout our study, we broadly discuss the implications for observations of magnetic fields and understanding the dynamics in the magnetized ISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Earth's magnetic field

Dipole field, magnetosphere, quiet day geomagnetic variations, dynamo theory for ionosphere origin, and other topics related to earth magnetic field

MAGNETOSPHERE↗

Clustering of Emerging Flux

Observations show that newly emerging flux tends to appear on the Solar surface at sites where there is flux already. This results in clustering of solar activity. Standard dynamo theories do not predict this effect.

Flux Cluster dynamo↗

Structure preserving transport stabilized compatible finite element methods for magnetohydrodynamics

Here, we present compatible finite element space discretizations for the ideal compressible magnetohydrodynamic equations. The magnetic field is considered both in div- and curl-conforming spaces, leading to a strongly or weakly preserved zero-divergence condition, respectively. The equations are discretized in space such that transfers between the kinetic, internal, and magnetic energies are consistent, leading to a preserved total energy. We also discuss further adjustments to the discretization required to additionally achieve magnetic helicity preservation. Finally, we describe new transport stabilization methods for the magnetic field equation which maintain the zero-divergence and energy conservation properties, including one method which also preserves magnetic helicity. The methods' preservation and improved stability properties are confirmed numerically using a steady state and a magnetic dynamo test case.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Geostrophic to magnetically-damped turbulence in liquid metal rotating magnetoconvection

Understanding planetary core convection dynamics requires the study of convective flows in which the Coriolis and Lorentz forces attain a leading-order, so-called magnetostrophic balance. Experimental investigations of rotating magnetoconvection (RMC) in the magnetostrophic regime are therefore essential to broadly characterize the properties of local-scale planetary core flow. Toward this end, we present here the first thermovelocimetric measurements of magnetostrophic, liquid metal convection, which are made using liquid gallium as the working fluid, at moderate rotation rates (Ekman numbers 10 -4 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 -5 ) and in the presence of dynamically strong magnetic fields (Elsasser number Λ = 1). Complementary rotating convection (RC) experiments are performed at the same rotation rates to serve as reference cases. Our RMC velocity measurements adequately follow a geostrophic turbulent scaling for cases in which local-scale convective inertial forces exceed the Lorentz forces in the fluid bulk. In cases where Lorentz forces exceed local-scale inertia (local or convective interaction parameter N ℓ or N C ≳ 3), the root-mean-square RMC velocities are magnetically damped, yielding values below the geostrophic turbulent RC scaling prediction. An enhancement in heat transfer is observed, which we attribute to the increased coherence of vertically aligned magnetostrophic convective flow. Finally, our results and comparisons to dynamo simulations suggest that the system is in the strong-field regime, where convection-scale flows are magnetically damped with N C ≳ 3).

Convective turbulence↗

Electromagnetic energy transport by tearing fluctuations in a self-organized reversed-field pinch plasma

Fluctuation measurements reveal the outward electromagnetic energy flux needed to drive the dynamo electromotive force supporting magnetic self-organization in a reversed-field pinch plasma. The radial Poynting flux due to tearing mode fluctuations is measured with an insertable probe during magnetic relaxation. This flux corresponds to transient power levels much larger than the input power and comparable to the global equilibrium magnetic energy transient loss rate. The probe measurements of this flux are roughly as predicted by a simple Poynting's theorem model upon substitution of equilibrium measurement data.

Physics↗

Direct Simulations of H–He Mixtures at Planetary Interior Conditions: Demixing, Insulator–Metal Transition and Miscibility Boundaries

Accurate knowledge of the electrical and thermal conductivities and structural properties of hydrogen–helium mixtures under thermodynamic conditions within and beyond the immiscibility range is very important to predict the thermal evolution and internal structure of gas giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn. Here, we propose a novel method to determine the immiscibility boundary accurately without the need for free energy calculations, while providing consistent insights into structural and transport properties of mixtures. We show with direct large-scale ab initio simulations that the insulator–metal transition (IMT) of the hydrogen subsystem is strongly affected by an admixture with a small fraction of helium and occurs at temperatures significantly higher than those of pure hydrogen. At pressures below 150 GPa, the IMT boundary is not related anymore to the H 2 subsystem dissociation, the system remains insulating even after the full dissociation of H 2 molecules and its transition to an H–He mixture. The offset of the IMT in the H–He mixture relative to the dissociation region in the hydrogen subsystem and the significant reduction of static electrical and thermal conductivity by a factor between two and a few thousand relative to pure hydrogen found in mixtures have consequences for Jupiter and Saturn’s thermal evolution, internal structure, and dynamo action, affecting a large fraction of the interior of both planets.

Helium↗

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Pressure Melting Curve of Fe‐Si: Implication for the Thermal Properties in Mercury's Core

The motion of liquid iron (Fe) alloy materials in the outer core drives the dynamo, which generates Mercury's magnetic field. The assessment of core models requires laboratory measurements of the melting temperature of Fe alloys at high pressure. Here, we experimentally determined the melting curve of Fe9wt%Si and Fe17wt%Si up to 17 GPa using in situ and ex situ measurements of intermetallic fast diffusion that serves as the melting criterion in a large-volume press. Our determined melting slopes are comparable with previous studies up to about 17 GPa. However, when extrapolated, our melting slopes significantly deviate from previous studies at higher pressures. For Mercury's core with a model composition of Fe9wt%Si, the melting temperature-depth profile determined in our study is lower by ∼150–250 K when compared with theoretical calculations. Using the new melting curve of Fe9wt%Si and the electrical resistivity values from a previous study of Fe8.5wt%Si, we estimate that the electronic thermal conductivity of liquid Fe9wt%Si is 30 Wm −1 K −1 at the Mercury's CMB pressure of 5 GPa and 37 Wm −1 K −1 at an assumed ICB of 21 GPa, corresponding to heat flux values of 23 mWm −2 and 32 mWm −2 , respectively. These values provide new constraints on the core models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Melting and density of MgSiO 3 determined by shock compression of bridgmanite to 1254GPa

The essential data for interior and thermal evolution models of the Earth and super-Earths are the density and melting of mantle silicate under extreme conditions. Here, we report an unprecedently high melting temperature of MgSiO 3 at 500 GPa by direct shockwave loading of pre-synthesized dense MgSiO3 (bridgmanite) using the Z Pulsed Power Facility. We also present the first high-precision density data of crystalline MgSiO 3 to 422 GPa and 7200 K and of silicate melt to 1254 GPa. The experimental density measurements support our density functional theory based molecular dynamics calculations, providing benchmarks for theoretical calculations under extreme conditions. The excellent agreement between experiment and theory provides a reliable reference density profile for super-Earth mantles. Furthermore, the observed upper bound of melting temperature, 9430 K at 500 GPa, provides a critical constraint on the accretion energy required to melt the mantle and the prospect of driving a dynamo in massive rocky planets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Abstract Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗