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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Fractionation of Oxygen Isotopes in Uranium Oxides during Peroxide Precipitation and Dry Air Calcination

The interaction between uranium and oxygen-containing substrates is nearly ubiquitous within the nuclear fuel cycle. Given the well-known and predictable oxygen stable isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen and meteoric waters around the world, the use of these isotopes as a potential geolocation or processing signature of uranium compounds has been of interest within the nuclear safeguards community. This study focuses on measuring the oxygen-stable isotope composition of synthetically produced uranium oxides to determine the mechanism and extent of fractionation during materials processing relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle. Here, metastudtite [UO 2 O 2 (H 2 O) 2 ] samples were first produced using water and hydrogen peroxide of a known oxygen isotope composition. This starting material was calcined in dry air at temperatures ranging from 300 °C to 1000 °C for 20 h producing oxides ranging in composition from UO 3 +x (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.5) to U 3 O 8 . In addition, calcinations between 500 and 800 °C were performed at different time intervals to evaluate the rate of isotopic equilibration. The δ 18 O values of water bound to metastudtite were measured by thermogravimetric analysis coupled to isotope ratio infrared spectroscopy (TGA–IRIS). A redesigned fluorination manifold was constructed at the University of Utah and was used to extract the bulk oxygen from precipitated and calcined products using bromine pentafluoride (BrF 5 ). Mineralization water on metastudtite (measured by TGA–IRIS) was closely associated with the aqueous environment of precipitation with a fractionation of +3.5 ± 0.6‰. In contrast, bulk oxygen from metastudtite (measured by fluorination and gas chromatography combined with isotope ratio mass spectrometry) was found to have an inconsistent fractionation with precipitation water. Samples calcined in dry air exhibited a wide range of oxygen isotope compositions which increased from δ 18 O = +1.4 ± 0.9‰ at 300 °C to +17.3 ± 0.9‰ at 1000 °C. This variation in δ 18 O values was a result of oxygen exchange with atmospheric O 2 and was found to be rapid at calcination temperatures greater than 600°C—with equilibration occurring in less than 2 h. These results provide insights into the incorporation and exchange of oxygen isotopes during precipitation and calcination processes comparable to those employed within the nuclear fuel cycle and establish a foundation for future investigations to build upon.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

High-amplitude ridges can enforce heat-trapping systems that persist through an entire season, contributing to drought events. However, the impacts of day-to-day weather system changes at the meso- and synoptic-scale are also important, albeit less well studied. Here, we identify five weather types (WTs) from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies. These categories include WT4, which represents ridges and associated dry and warm anomalies, and WT3, which characterizes troughs and associated wetter- and colder-than-normal conditions and is the largest contributor to precipitation in the western U.S. While no discernable trend is evident for WT4 conditions, WT3 conditions have undergone a distinctive decrease in frequency at both annual and seasonal scales, thus a general drying trend across the west during this time period may be more significantly associated with fewer troughs rather than more ridges. Attribution analysis reveals that this decrease in wetter and colder weather is a likely result of anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Midwinter Dry Spells Amplify Post‐Fire Snowpack Decline

Abstract Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite‐based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California's seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020–2021 versus 2001–2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25%–71% at two burned sites (2021 and 2022) according to in‐situ data relative to un‐burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, both decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi‐week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in December–February 2013 and 2022–linked to persistent high pressure weather regimes–minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post‐fire snowpack differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California's snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin Method Applied to an Idealized Fully Compressible Nonhydrostatic Dry Atmosphere

Dynamical cores used to study the circulation of the atmosphere employ various numerical methods ranging from finite-volume, spectral element, global spectral, and hybrid methods. In this work, we explore the use of Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin (FDDG) methods to simulate a fully compressible dry atmosphere at various resolutions. We show that the method offers a judicious compromise between high-order accuracy and stability for large-eddy simulations and simulations of the atmospheric general circulation. In particular, filters, divergence damping, diffusion, hyperdiffusion, or sponge-layers are not required to ensure stability; only the numerical dissipation naturally afforded by FDDG is necessary. We apply the method to the simulation of dry convection in an atmospheric boundary layer and in a global atmospheric dynamical core in the standard benchmark of Held and Suarez

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capillary Water in 2-D Drying-Cracking Soil Sub-Grain Models: Morphology and Kinematics of Evaporation and Haines Jumps

Morphing of capillary water during the drying of a cluster of three wet grains is imaged and measured. The uniqueness of the tests is in the grains being long cylinders to make the system as close to a 2-D one as possible. In this way, the Laplace pressure depends on the only one curvature of the meniscus, which can easily be followed and is continuously image processed. The motion of liquid/gas interface, and its rate, as well as of contact angle and perimeter, are also monitored. The drying water body has been known to undergo two modes of re-morphing: a slow, evaporation rate-controlled one and a fast, inertia-driven instabilities of the interfaces. Two particular forms of dynamic re-morphing are being followed: one, called classically an “air entry,” which is a meniscus jump before its approaching the throat between the top and a bottom grain and another jump of the bottom contact, with a splitting of the meniscus into two between only two of the three grains. Associated dynamic variables, capillary pressure, and surface tension forces developing prior to and in conjunction with the instabilities of the menisci are presented in a companion paper by Hueckel et al..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing Long‐Standing Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by High‐Resolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NO x emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NO x to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Viral but not bacterial community successional patterns reflect extreme turnover shortly after rewetting dry soils

As central members of soil trophic networks, viruses have the potential to drive substantial microbial mortality and nutrient turnover. Pinpointing viral contributions to terrestrial ecosystem processes remains a challenge, as temporal dynamics are difficult to unravel in the spatially and physicochemically heterogeneous soil environment. In Mediterranean grasslands, the first rainfall after seasonal drought provides an ecosystem reset, triggering microbial activity during a tractable window for capturing short-term dynamics. In this report we simulated precipitation in microcosms from four distinct dry grassland soils and generated 144 viromes, 84 metagenomes and 84 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon datasets to characterize viral, prokaryotic and relic DNA dynamics over 10 days. Vastly different viral communities in each soil followed remarkably similar successional trajectories. Wet-up triggered a significant increase in viral richness, followed by extensive compositional turnover. Temporal succession in prokaryotic communities was much less pronounced, perhaps suggesting differences in the scales of activity captured by viromes (representing recently produced, ephemeral viral particles) and total DNA. Still, differences in the relative abundances of Actinobacteria (enriched in dry soils) and Proteobacteria (enriched in wetted soils) matched those of their predicted phages, indicating viral predation of dominant bacterial taxa. Rewetting also rapidly depleted relic DNA, which subsequently reaccumulated, indicating substantial new microbial mortality in the days after wet-up, particularly of the taxa putatively under phage predation. Production of abundant, diverse viral particles via microbial host cell lysis appears to be a conserved feature of the early response to soil rewetting, and results suggest the potential for ‘Cull-the-Winner’ dynamics, whereby viruses infect and cull but do not decimate dominant host populations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change

Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here in this paper, we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dry Deactivation of Sodium Metal in a Molten LiCl-KCl-CsCl-NaCl System

An experimental study was performed with the objective of investigating and characterizing a dry technique for deactivation of sodium metal in a molten salt system. The study was performed in three parts. First, proof-of-principle testing of the technique was performed at bench scale. It involved loading and melting tens of grams of clean sodium metal atop a pool of LiCl-KCl-CsCl eutectic at ∼300°C and then adding ammonium chloride particles while mixing. The ammonium chloride reacted with sodium to form sodium chloride and nitrogen/hydrogen off-gases. The sodium chloride assimilated into the salt pool, forming a quaternary salt mixture of LiCl-KCl-CsCl-NaCl. The proof-of-principle testing repeatedly exhibited complete deactivation of the loaded sodium metal. Second, characterization of a LiCl-KCl-CsCl-NaCl system was performed using differential scanning calorimetry to produce a partial phase diagram of LiCl-KCl-CsCl eutectic versus NaCl, which identified the liquidus, solidus, and two-phase regions of the quaternary system. Third, the dry deactivation technique was demonstrated at kg-scale in an inert atmosphere radiological glovebox with sodium metal that was previously separated in the same glovebox from uranium metal in unirradiated blanket elements for the Fermi-1 nuclear reactor. The quaternary salt product at the end of the demonstration was sampled and showed complete deactivation of the sodium metal. Here, in short, this study qualified a technique to completely deactivate batches of sodium metal in the absence of air or water. While this study focused on the deactivation of sodium metal, including bond sodium from unirradiated blanket elements, the technique is applicable to other sources of sodium metal, such as sodium metal from batteries. Furthermore, the technique could also be extended to other alkali metal systems, including lithium, sodium, potassium, rubidium, cesium, and mixtures thereof.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative S/TEM study of superconducting Ta quantum resonators by wet and dry etching types

Superconducting resonators play a pivotal role in various quantum technology applications, such as quantum computing and high-frequency communication systems. The performance of these resonators is closely tied to the properties of the superconducting films used in their fabrication. Here, in this study, we investigated the impact of wet and dry etching on tantalum (Ta) films leveraging advanced scanning transmission electron microscopy-based characterization methods and examined the morphological, chemical, and strain changes caused by the etching processes. Consequently, we report the significant differences between the two etching methods, with dry etching resulting in straight slanted sidewalls and a thinner oxidized layer, while wet etching produced curved sidewalls and undercuts. Both methods led to the formation of a residual Ta wedge at the lower part of the sidewall, causing lattice deformation, which could adversely influence the homogeneous operations of superconducting devices. These insights enhance our understanding of how etching influences superconducting films, offering valuable guidance for optimizing resonators and related devices. Our findings mark a significant stride in advancing quantum technologies and high-frequency communication by enhancing our practical understanding of superconducting material fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Full-film dry transfer of MBE-grown van der Waals materials

Abstract Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) has been used to create high-quality, large-scale two-dimensional van der Waals (2D vdW) materials. However, due to the strong adhesion between the substrate and deposited materials, the peel-off and dry transfer of MBE-grown vdW films onto other substrates has been challenging. This limits the study and use of MBE films for heterogeneous integration including stacked and twisted heterostructures. In this work, we develop a polymer-assisted dry transfer method and successfully perform full-film transfer of various MBE-grown 2D vdW materials including transition metal dichalcogenides, topological insulators and 2D magnets. In particular, we transfer air-sensitive 2D magnets, characterize their magnetic properties, and compare them with as-grown materials. The results show that the transfer technique does not degrade the magnetic properties, with the Curie temperature and hysteresis loops exhibiting similar behaviors after the transfer. Our results enable further development of heterogeneous integration of 2D vdW materials based on MBE growth.

Li, Ziling (ORCID:0000000203537036)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Surface Phenomena Created by Underground Chemical Explosions in Dry Alluvium and Granite Geology From Fully Polarimetric VideoSAR Data

Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series involved six underground chemical explosions, all of which were conducted at the same experimental pad. Research from the sixth explosion of the series (SPE-6) demonstrated that polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) is a viable technology for monitoring an underground chemical explosion when the geologic structure is Cretaceous granitic intrusive. It was shown that a durable signal is measurable by the H/A/α polarimetric decomposition parameters. After the SPE-6 experiment, the SPE program moved to the Phase II location, which is composed of dry alluvium geology (DAG). The loss of wavefront energy is greater through dry alluvium than through granite. In this article, we compare the SPE-6 analysis to the second DAG (DAG-2) experiment. We hypothesize that despite the geology at the DAG site being more challenging than at the Phase I location, combined with the DAG-2 experiment having a 3.37 times deeper scaled depth of burial than the SPE-6, a durable nonprompt signal is still measurable by a PolSAR sensor. We compare the PolSAR time-series measures from videoSAR frames, from the SPE-6 and DAG-2 experiments, with accelerometer data. We show which PolSAR measures are invariant to the two types of geology and which are geology dependent. We compare a coherent change detection (CCD) map from the DAG-2 experiment with the data from a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensor to show the connection between the spatial extent of coherence loss in CCD maps and spallation caused by the explosion. Finally, we also analyze the spatial extent of the PolSAR measures from both explosions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Fluid Dynamic Modeling of Dry Cask Simulator with Crosswind

The purpose of this study is to create a STAR-CCM+ model of a Belowground Vertical Dry Cask Simulator (BVDCS) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and validate the model with SNL’s experimental results. The BVDCS consists of a single boiling water reactor assembly fitted with electric heaters encompassed by a containment vessel and shell to represent a belowground spent nuclear fuel (SNF) dry storage system. Blowers are located near the inlet and outlet of the BVDCS to simulate crosswind conditions. In addition to the experimental results, the STAR-CCM+ model developed for this study is compared with a previous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model in a different software program, which is used as a software-to-software benchmark. The experimental results provide a dataset to compare the STAR-CCM+ model results for a variety of different conditions. The main objective is to validate and improve STAR-CCM+ CFD models for spent nuclear fuel storage systems with explicitly modeled external environments and “wind driven” crossflows. These CFD models aide in the study of external particle deposition in spent nuclear fuel storage systems, which is important to predicting the significance of chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). In addition to experimental comparison, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the STAR-CCM+ model. The sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of various parameters. This helps provide information on various parameters that are of particular importance to constructing a model representative of real life systems. The STAR-CCM+ model compared well to the experimental results showing similar responses to changes in cross wind flow, and a number of parameters are identified for model improvement.

Jensen, Ben J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-situ proton radiation testing of 2.4 micron wavelength extended InGaAs photodiodes at dry ice and room temperatures

We have successfully tested 290 µm diameter, 2.4 micron wavelength, Extended InGaAs photodiodes coupled with single mode fiber using 50 MeV Protons at both dry ice temperature (-72 °C) and room temperature (20 °C). The devices were reverse biased at 100 mV during the radiation run and their leakage current was continuously monitored insitu during the exposure. These devices find multiple applications in space for spectroscopy & sensing, inter-satellite optical communication links, rapid Doppler shift LIDAR, as well as inter-planetary and Earth-to-Moon communication links. Several photodiodes were tested using 50 MeV Protons with an average flux level of 2.11 × 10 7 protons/cm 2 /s, for a total fluence of 1.0 × 10 11 protons/cm 2 and total dose of 20 krad (water). Pre- and post-radiation results were also measured for leakage current vs. voltage, responsivity (quantum efficiency), and bandwidth of the Extended InGaAs photodiodes. Finally, all devices were found to be fully functional at normal operating conditions and at both dry ice and room temperature.

2.4 micron wavelength↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Membranes with Internal Microchannels to Prevent Drying-out during CO 2 Electrolysis

Scaling up CO 2 electrolysis is a vital aspect in the transition to manufacturing sustainable fuels and chemical compounds, satisfying the demand for chemicals and demand for storing renewable electricity. Depending on the employed catalyst, different products can be produced, such as carbon monoxide and ethylene, by applying a voltage on a CO 2 and H 2 O fed electrolyzer. CO is a desirable product according to techno-economic analysis, because it can be produced selectively using a silver catalyst and is a precursor for hydrocarbons in the Fischer–Tropsch process. In a state-of-the-art CO 2 electrolyzer, two electrodes are directly pressed against an ion-exchange membrane – this is called a zero-gap configuration. Therefore, the membrane is a crucial component for the system, since it has the role of providing a conductive medium between the electrodes. One of the challenges in CO 2 electrolysis is that water is consumed in the reaction. At high current density, this may cause the membrane's surface near the cathode to dry out, lowering efficiency or perhaps stopping the process entirely, since there is no longer a conductive medium. As a result, water management is critical for this process. In this work, we approach the drying-out challenge by studying the novel concept of a membrane with internal microchannels. These channels allow the circulation of water or an electrolyte inside the membrane, which reduces the water diffusion path and affects the membrane’s conductivity. The effects of channel geometry, location, and concentrations of electrolyte inside on water content, conductivity and overall performance are studied in a 2D COMSOL model. In addition, the effect of internal concentration of electrolyte on the membrane’s resistance, on the process performance and the K + cross-over to cathode side were investigated experimentally. Our modeling results prove that the presence of the channels can keep the membrane hydrated. The highest current densities are observed when the channel is closest to the cathode, and with smaller pores. Smaller pores are advantageous due to the trade-off between enhanced membrane conductivity and the lower conductivity of the liquid itself. If water is circulated in a large channel, it increases the membrane’s ionomer conductivity due to hydration but the overall conductivity is decreased since water is not highly conductive. Nonetheless, the results also show that a higher concentration of electrolyte inside the microchannels can significantly increase the total conductivity of the membrane, and therefore the energy efficiency of the process. These effects are most significant at higher current densities. In the experimental results, we’ve observed similar effects in terms of membrane conductivity and current density of the process – the higher the electrolyte concentration the higher the current density. Furthermore, a low concentration decreases the amount of potassium which crosses over to the cathode side, inhibiting salt deposition. We’ve concluded that a small channel, up to 90 µm wide, close to the pore with an electrolyte with a concentration of up to 10 mM could be very beneficial for the water management and energy efficiency of the process. This helps to keep the membrane hydrated at higher current densities, improves the conductivity of the membrane, and it doesn’t have significant impacts on the salt deposition.

Petrov, Kostadin Veselinov↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the performance of WRF urban schemes and PBL schemes over Dallas-Fort Worth during a dry summer and a wet summer

This study evaluated the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model sensitivity to different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes (the YSU and MYJ schemes) and urban schemes including the bulk scheme (BULK), single-layer urban canopy model (UCM), multi-layer building environment parameterization (BEP) model, and multi-layer building energy model (BEM). Daily reinitialization simulations were conducted over Dallas-Fort Worth during a dry summer month (July 2011) and a wet summer month (July 2015) with weaker (stronger) daytime (nocturnal) UHI in 2011 than 2015. All urban schemes overestimated the urban daytime 2m temperature in both summers, but BEP and BEM still reproduced the daytime urban cool island in dry summer. All urban schemes reproduced the nocturnal urban heat island, with BEP producing the weakest one due to its unrealistic urban cooling. BULK and UCM overestimated the urban canopy wind speed, while BEP and BEM underestimated it. The urban schemes showed prominent impact on daytime PBL profiles. UCM+MYJ showed a superior performance than other configurations. The relatively large (small) aspect ratio between building height and road width in UCM (BEM) was responsible for the overprediction (underprediction) of urban canopy temperature. The relatively low (high) building height in UCM (BEM) was responsible for the overprediction (underprediction) of urban canopy wind speed. Improving urban schemes and providing realistic urban parameters were critical for improving urban canopy simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Warm and Dry Bias over ARM SGP Site in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF

Abstract Many climate models exhibit a dry and warm bias over the central United States during the summer months, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and its Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) configuration. Understanding the causes of this bias is important to shine a light on this common model error and reduce the uncertainty in future projections. In this study, we use E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF to assess how parameterized and resolved convection affect temperature and precipitation biases over the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. Both configurations overestimate near-surface temperature and underestimate precipitation at the ARM SGP site. The bias is associated with a lack of low-level clouds during days without precipitation and too much incoming solar radiation causing the surface to warm. Low-level cloud fraction in E3SM-MMF during the nonprecipitating days is lower in comparison to E3SMv2 and observation, consistent with the larger warm bias. We also find that the underestimated precipitation can be characterized as “too frequent, too weak” in E3SMv2 and “too rare, too intense” in E3SM-MMF. These deficiencies conspire to sustain the warm and dry bias over the central United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Moist and Dry Intrusions Control the Local Hydrologic Cycle in Present and Future Climates

Models disagree on the magnitude of the intensification of hydrologic cycle extremes under climate change. Changes in these extremes are expected to scale with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation but may locally diverge due to the uncertain response of the atmospheric general circulation. Recent work has identified that the circulation contribution (the “dynamic” component) is the largest contributor to uncertainty in changes in hydrologic cycle extremes. In this work, we develop an exact budget for changes in wet and dry extremes based on changes in the associated moist and dry intrusions behind those extremes. We decompose changes into four contributors: thermodynamic, low-level convergence, anomalous meridional moisture advection, and zonal wave activity convergence. In analyzing these changes, we show that low-level convergence is the main dynamic contributor to the tropical and subtropical annual response, consistent with weakening of the Hadley circulation, and we show that anomalous meridional moisture advection is the primary dynamic contributor annually for the extratropics, consistent with storm track changes. We achieve a clean separation between dynamic and thermodynamic contributions through an empirical scaling between extremes and their associated wave activities, showing again that shifting storm tracks and expanding subtropics are critical to the dynamic response of the transient hydrologic cycle. We infer that changes in the large-scale circulation are predominantly responsible for the annual, dynamic response of hydrologic cycle extremes and therefore an important contributor to uncertainty in future projections.

Hydrological cycle, hydrological extremes, dynamic↗