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Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.
Turbulent backward-facing step flow was examined using four low turbulent Reynolds number k-epsilon models and one standard high Reynolds number technique. A tunnel configuration of 1:9 (step height: exit tunnel height) was used. The models tested include: the original Jones and Launder; Chien; Launder and Sharma; and the recent Shih and Lumley formulation. The experimental reference of Driver and Seegmiller was used to make detailed comparisons between reattachment length, velocity, pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, Reynolds shear stress, and skin friction predictions. The results indicated that the use of a wall function for the standard k-epsilon technique did not reduce the calculation accuracy for this separated flow when compared to the low turbulent Reynolds number techniques.
Turbulent backward-facing step flow was examined using four low turbulent Reynolds number k-epsilon models and one standard high Reynolds number technique. A tunnel configuration of 1:9 (step height: exit tunnel height) was used. The models tested include: the original Jones and Launder; Chien; Launder and Sharma; and the recent Shih and Lumley formulation. The experimental reference of Driver and Seegmiller was used to make detailed comparisons between reattachment length, velocity, pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, Reynolds shear stress, and skin friction predictions. The results indicated that the use of a wall function for the standard k-epsilon technique did not reduce the calculation accuracy for this separated flow when compared to the low turbulent Reynolds number techniques.
It is well established that clouds have a profound influence on Earth's energy budget and that cloud feedbacks are responsible for much of the uncertainty in climate model projections of global warming in response to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. While most model evaluation efforts focus on model representation of the observed mean state. For example, the regional mean climatology of key climate variables there is also tremendous value in testing how a model represents observed internal variations of the climate system. Here we use CERES observations during and after the so-called global warming hiatus to evaluate a subset of CMIP6 climate models. The CERES data show a marked 0.83 Wm-2 reduction in global mean reflected SW TOA flux during the three years following the hiatus that results in an increase in net energy into the climate system. The primary driver of the decrease in SW TOA flux is a reduction in low cloud cover over the eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs in response to an unprecedented increase in SSTs in that region following the hiatus. The CMIP6 simulations consist of AMIP-style experiments in which SSTs and sea-ice boundary conditions are constrained by observations. For each model, the AMIP runs were extended through the end of 2017 from the official CMIP6 AMIP end period in 2014. Results show that the models do a good job at capturing the pattern of observed changes in TOA flux observed by CERES, but tend to underestimate the magnitude.
This technical publication (TP) examines performance and design issues associated with magnetic flux compression reactor concepts for nuclear/chemical pulse propulsion and power. Assuming that low-yield microfusion detonations or chemical detonations using high-energy density matter can eventually be realized in practice, various magnetic flux compression concepts are conceivable. In particular, reactors in which a magnetic field would be compressed between an expanding detonation-driven plasma cloud and a stationary structure formed from a high-temperature superconductor are envisioned. Primary interest is accomplishing two important functions: (1) Collimation and reflection of a hot diamagnetic plasma for direct thrust production, and (2) electric power generation for fusion standoff drivers and/or dense plasma formation. In this TP, performance potential is examined, major technical uncertainties related to this concept accessed, and a simple performance model for a radial-mode reactor developed. Flux trapping effectiveness is analyzed using a skin layer methodology, which accounts for magnetic diffusion losses into the plasma armature and the stationary stator. The results of laboratory-scale experiments on magnetic diffusion in bulk-processed type II superconductors are also presented.
Tests have been made in the Langley 4- by 4-foot supersonic pressure tunnel at Mach numbers of 1.41, 1.61, and 2.01 to determine the static longitudinal stability and control characteristics of various arrangements of the Grumman F11F-1 airplane. Tests were made of the complete model and various combinations of its component parts and, in addition, the effects of various body modifications, a revised vertical tail, and wing fences on the longitudinal characteristics were determined. The results indicate that for a horizontal-tail incidence of -10 deg the trim lift coefficient varied from 0.29 at a Mach number of 1.61 to 0.23 at a Mach number of 2.01 with a corresponding decrease in lift-drag trim from 3.72 to 3.15. Stick-position instability was indicated in the low-supersonic-speed range. A photographic-type nose modification resulted in slightly higher values of minimum drag coefficient but did not significantly affect the static stability or lift-curve slope. The minimum drag coefficient for the complete model with the production nose remained essentially constant at 0.047 throughout the Mach number range investigated.
The Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) projects objective is to mature a 3-D Woven Thermal Protection System (TPS) to Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6 to support future NASA missions to destinations such as Venus and Saturn. The scope of the project, status of which will be discussed, encompasses development of manufacturing and integration processes, fabrication of a prototype 1m diameter engineering test unit (ETU) that will undergo a series of structural tests, characterizing material aerothermal performance including development of a material response model, and structural testing and analysis to develop tools to support design and establish system capability.
To survive unpredictable environmental change, many organisms adopt bet-hedging strategies that are initially costly but provide a long-term fitness benefit. The temporal extent of these deferred fitness benefits determines whether bet-hedging organisms can survive long enough to realize them. In this article, we examine a model of microbial bet hedging in which there are two paths to extinction: unpredictable environmental change and demographic stochasticity. In temporally correlated environments, these drivers of extinction select for different switching strategies. Rapid phenotype switching ensures survival in the face of unpredictable environmental change, while slower-switching organisms become extinct. However, when both switching strategies are present in the same population, then demographic stochasticity—enforced by a limited population size—leads to extinction of the faster-switching organism. As a result, we find a novel form of evolutionary suicide whereby selection in a fluctuating environment can favor bet-hedging strategies that ultimately increase the risk of extinction. Population structures with multiple subpopulations and dispersal can reduce the risk of extinction from unpredictable environmental change and shift the balance so as to facilitate the evolution of slower-switching organisms.
Interpretation of the vast data flow from the recent and ongoing Mars missions requires extensive modeling activity to support the investigations and conclusions drawn from the observations. We have initiated a campaign to compare atmospheric radiation schemes for the lower Martian atmosphere with leastcompromise reference line-by-line calculations (Meadows and Crisp 1996, Crisp 1986). By using fixed reference conditions we are introducing an intercomparison framework to enable atmospheric modeling teams to compare their modeling results with the reference line-by-line calculations, and to improve their models. The atmosphere of Mars is thin and therefore its response to local radiative forcing is strong when compared to that of the Earth s troposphere. Airborne dust and also the water vapor give significant contributions to the radiative fluxes. Thus models of the Martian atmosphere should have fairly accurate radiative transfer (RT) algorithms. This is specifically important for the net radiative flux at the surface, which is the main driver for the surface temperature evolution, since the surface turbulent fluxes are small due to the thin atmosphere (e.g. Haberle et al. 1993, Savij arvi 1991a, Savij arvi 1991b, Savij arvi 1999). However, the accuracy of the RT schemes has not been rigorously tested in many cases as reference calculations have been rare. We introduce a set of reference cases for Martian atmospheric conditions with profiles for temperature, pressure, dust optical depth (Conrath 1975, Clancy et al. 1995, OckertBell et al. 1997, Smith et al. 2000), water, CO2,O3,CO and O2 (Table 1). The reference atmosphere uses a diurnally and globally averaged thermal structure derived from Mariner 9 IRIS observations acquired during late southern summer. Thermal structures for nighttime and daytime conditions will be included shortly. Computationally expensive reference simulations were performed by applying a spectrum resolving (line-by-line multiple scattering) model, SRM, to give the least-compromise base for comparisons. We call for other groups to join in future comparisons. This resembles the International Comparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models (ICRCCM; e.g. Ellingson and Fouquart 1991, Ellingson et al. 1991). The ICRCCM led to many improvements in the Earth GCM radiation codes. The intercomparison framework presented in this paper is a step toward that direction for Mars. We have already five modeling teams participating in this intercomparison exercice. Additional teams investigating the Martian atmosphere are cordially invited to join this effort of comparing the radiation schemes in fixed conditions. The results achieved will be reported and some additional features to be included in the intercomparison will be discussed.
The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.
As part of a comprehensive program exploring driver/vehicle system response in lateral steering tasks, driver/vehicle system describing functions and other dynamic data have been gathered in several milieu. These include a simple fixed base simulator with an elementary roadway delineation only display; a fixed base statically operating automobile with a terrain model based, wide angle projection system display; and a full scale moving base automobile operating on the road. Dynamic data with the two fixed base simulators compared favorably, implying that the impoverished visual scene, lack of engine noise, and simplified steering wheel feel characteristics in the simple simulator did not induce significant driver dynamic behavior variations. The fixed base vs. moving base comparisons showed substantially greater crossover frequencies and phase margins on the road course.
One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.
Measurements of tropospheric ozone from combined Aura OMI and MLS instruments have yielded a large number of new and important science discoveries over the last decade. These discoveries have generated a much greater understanding of biomass burning, lightning NO, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange sources of tropospheric ozone, ENSO dynamics and photochemistry, intra-seasonal variability-Madden-Julian Oscillation including convective transport, radiative forcing, measuring ozone pollution from space, improvements to ozone retrieval algorithms, and evaluation of chemical-transport and chemistry-climate models. The OMI-MLS measurements have been instrumental in giving us better understanding of the dynamics and chemistry involving tropospheric ozone and the many drivers affecting the troposphere in general. This discussion will provide an overview focusing on our main science results.
Aerothermal modeling is inherently entwined with TPS design. Aerothermal, radiation, and TPS material response are coupled so it's important to check modeling assumptions. Validation of numerical models using ground and flight tests is important to quantify uncertainties. A margin policy based on statistical methods may provide greater insight in the key drivers and overall reliability of the design
Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction and prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted land cover maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands. These maps addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning.
Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction/prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted landcover change maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning. Forecasted landcover maps indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands.
The formation of an ion-acoustic shock in a numerically modeled two-chamber double plasma device is investigated for a plasma of cold ions and isothermal Boltzmann electrons. An initial potential ramp applied to the driver chamber launches an ion-acoustic pulse into the target chamber which steepens into a shock. The quasi-steady shock structure agrees with observed double plasma shocks. An upper limit of Mach 1.6 is observed independent of the potential ramp magnitude, in agreement with theory.