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Continuous snow depth, ground interface temperature and shallow soil temperature measurements from 2021-10-1 to 2022-6-14, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The dataset contains co-located snow depth, ground interface temperature, and shallow soil temperature measured at 98 discrete locations in a watershed located along the Nome-Teller road at mile marker 27 (referred to as T27), and at 53 discrete locations on a hillslope located along the Kougarok road at mile marker 64 (referred to as K64), in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The dataset aims to understand the local heterogeneity of snow depth, snow temperature, and soil temperature dynamics and their interactions in a discontinuous permafrost region. The dataset is also valuable to train and evaluate machine learning and physical models to predict snow depth or the impact of snow depth on ground surface temperature. At each location, temperatures above and below the ground surface were measured by a pair of vertically deployed distributed temperature profiling probes designed based on Dafflon et al (2022). The probes have high precision temperature sensors spaced at 5 or 10 cm. The mean daily snow depth was estimated by identifying the pair of consecutive sensors with maximum drop of daily temperature high-frequency fluctuations. The ground interface temperature was measured by the sensor located 1-5 cm above the ground surface at 15-minute intervals. The shallow soil temperature was measured by the sensor located 1-5 cm below the ground surface at 15-minute intervals. The dataset includes a description of the probe locations in the "Probe_locations_*.csv" file and the 3 data files (Snow_depths_*.csv, Ground_interface_temperatures_*.csv, Shallow_soil_temperatures_*.csv). * is either T27 or K64, which are the two study sites. In each data file, each column corresponds to a measurement location. Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data. All included files are listed and described in xxxx_flmd.csv. A more detailed description of data processing, along with an updated dataset incorporating multiple seasons and improved snow depth estimation is available at https://doi.org/10.15485/2480365 (Wang et al., 2025a, Wang et al., 2025b).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping the soil microbiome functions shaping wetland methane emissions

Accounting for only 8% of Earth’s land cover, freshwater wetlands remain the foremost contributors to global methane emissions. Yet the microorganisms and processes underlying methane emissions from wetland soils remain poorly understood. Over a five-year period, we surveyed the microbial membership and in situ methane measurements from over 700 samples in one of the most prolific methane-emitting wetlands in the United States. We constructed a catalog of 2,502 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), with more than half of the 70 bacterial and archaeal phyla sampled containing novel lineages. Integration of these data with 133 soil metatranscriptomes provided a genome-resolved view of the biogeochemical specialization and versatility expressed over wetland soil spatial and temporal gradients. Centimeter-scale depth differences best explained patterns of microbial community structure and transcribed functionalities, even more than land cover or temporal information. Moreover, while extended flooding restructured soil redox, this perturbation failed to reconfigure the transcriptional profiles of methane-cycling microorganisms, contrasting with theoretically expected responses to hydrological perturbations. Co-expression analyses, coupled with depth-resolved methane measurements, revealed the metabolisms and trophic structures most predictive of methane hotspots. Mapping the spatiotemporal transcriptional patterns on this compendium of biogeochemically classified soil-derived genomes begins to untangle the microbial carbon, energy, and nutrient processing contributing to wetland methane production.

MAG↗

Structural and Chemical Evolution of Highly Fluorinated Li‐Rich Disordered Rocksalt Oxyfluorides as a Function of Temperature

Abstract Li‐rich disordered rocksalt (DRS) oxyfluorides have emerged as promising high‐energy cathode materials for lithium‐ion batteries. While a high level of fluorination in DRS materials offers performance advantages, it can only be achieved via mechanochemical synthesis, which poses challenges of reproducibility and scalability. The definition of relationships between fluorination and structural stability is required to devise alternative methods that overcome these challenges. In this study, the thermal evolution of three highly fluorinated phases, Li 2 TMO 2 F (TM = Mn, Co, and Ni), is investigated in an inert atmosphere. Diffraction and spectroscopic techniques are utilized to examine their electronic and chemical states up until conditions of decomposition. The analysis reveals that the materials phase‐separate above 400 °C, at most. It is also observed that heat‐treated DRS materials exhibit intricate changes in the local coordination of the metals, including their spin, and ordering compared to the pristine states. The changes upon annealing are accompanied by a modulation of the voltage profile, including reduced hysteresis, when used as electrodes. These results provide an in‐depth understanding of the fundamental crystal chemistry of DRS oxyfluorides in view of their promising role as the next generation of Li‐ion cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Determining the oxidation behavior of matrix graphite

This work presents the oxidation behavior of matrix graphite in air. Matrix graphite, graphite powder/flakes bonded by a small amount of non-graphitic carbon, surrounds coated fuel particles in order to form cylindrical fuel compacts (in prismatic core designs) or spheres (in pebble-bed reactor designs). This work focuses on oxidation tests conducted on two matrix graphite materials, one provided by Kairos Power and the other A3 matrix graphite. Some of the tests followed American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) oxidation testing standards using a vertical furnace system and others were performed in a thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA). It was determined that, at temperatures of 450 °C–700 °C, the oxidation rate of the Kairos matrix graphite follows the Arrhenius equation. In comparison with A3 matrix graphite, the Kairos matrix graphite shows better oxidation resistance at high temperatures (≥550 °C), but also a higher oxidation rate at low temperatures. Both the A3 matrix graphite and the Kairos matrix graphite materials may experience preferential oxidation of the partially graphitized binder. An oxygen penetration gradient was also observed when using the three characterization methods (i.e., optical microscope, x-ray tomography [XCT], and density profile by the lathe) enlisted in this research. In conclusion, the oxygen penetration depth increases with decreasing isothermal oxidation temperature, while the center of the oxidized samples (10% weight loss) remains almost untouched even at 500 °C.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Massive peatland carbon banks vulnerable to rising temperatures

Peatlands contain one-third of the world’s soil carbon (C). If destabilized, decomposition of this vast C bank could accelerate climate warming; however, the likelihood of this outcome remains unknown. Here, we examine peatland C stability through five years of whole-ecosystem warming and two years of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO 2 ). Warming exponentially increased methane (CH 4 ) emissions and enhanced CH 4 production rates throughout the entire soil profile; although surface CH 4 production rates remain much greater than those at depth. Additionally, older deeper C sources played a larger role in decomposition following prolonged warming. Most troubling, decreases in CO 2 :CH 4 ratios in gas production, porewater concentrations, and emissions, indicate that the peatland is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We observed limited evidence of eCO 2 effects. Our results suggest that ecosystem responses are largely driven by surface peat, but that the vast C bank at depth in peatlands is responsive to prolonged warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (AgMAR) and Stratigraphic Heterogeneities on Nitrate Reduction in the Deep Subsurface

This data package contains input files for TOUGHREACT for a modeling study examining the effects of managed aquifer recharge on agricultural lands on nitrate cycling and transport in the Central Valley of CA near Modesto. The files contain all the geochemical species, reactions, and hydrological parameters for the model. The files are text files used for the TOUGH family of code created by LBNL. To use the files a license is required. https://tough.lbl.gov/licensing-download/toughreact-licensing-download/Accompanying Paper Abstract: Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR) is a proposed management strategy whereby surface water flows are used to intentionally flood croplands with the purpose of recharging underlying aquifers. However, legacy nitrate (NO3-) contamination in agriculturally-intensive regions poses a threat to groundwater resources under AgMAR. To address these concerns, we use a reactive transport modeling framework to better understand the effects of AgMAR management strategies (i.e., by varying the frequency, duration between flooding events, and amount of water) on N leaching to groundwater under different stratigraphic configurations and antecedent moisture conditions. In particular, we examine the potential of denitrification and nitrogen retention in deep vadose zone sediments (~15 m) using variable AgMAR application rates on two-dimensional representations of differently textured soils, soils with discontinuous bands/channels, and soils with preferential flow paths characteristic of typical agricultural field sites. Our results indicate that finer textured sediments, such as silt loams, alone or embedded within high flow regions, are important reducing zones providing conditions needed for denitrification. Simulation results further suggest that applying water all-at-once rather than in increments for a fixed volume of recharge transports higher concentrations of NO3- deeper into the profile, which has the potential to exacerbate groundwater quality. This transport into deeper depths can be aggravated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, applying water all-at-once also increases denitrification within the vadose zone by promoting anoxic conditions. We conclude that AgMAR management strategies can be designed to enhance denitrification in the subsurface and reduce N leaching to groundwater, while specifically accounting for lithologic heterogeneity, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and depth to the water table. Our findings are potentially relevant to other systems that experience flooding inundation such as riparian corridors, floodplains, wetlands, and other managed landscapes like dedicated recharge basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Observation of the Depth of Active Groundwater Circulation in an Alpine Watershed

Abstract The depth of active groundwater circulation is a fundamental control on stream flows and chemistry in mountain watersheds, yet it remains challenging to characterize and is rarely well constrained. We collected hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic head, temperature, chemical, noble gas, and 3 H/ 3 He groundwater age data from discrete levels in two boreholes 46 and 81 m deep in an alpine watershed, in combination with chemical and age data from shallow groundwater discharge, to discern groundwater flow rates at different depths and directly observe active and inactive groundwater. Vertical head gradients are steep (average of 0.4) and thermal profiles are consistent with typical linear conductive continental geotherms. Groundwater deeper than ∼20 m is distinct from shallow groundwater and creek water in its chemistry, noble gas signature, and age (dominantly >65 years compared to <9 years). Together these results suggest low vertical groundwater flow velocities and a relatively shallow active circulation depth of ∼20 m. This hypothesis is tested with a simple 2‐D numerical fluid flow and heat transport model representing a hillslope transect through the two boreholes. The modeling indicates that the subhorizontally bedded sedimentary rocks underlying the basin are highly anisotropic with low vertical hydraulic conductivity, and at most ∼10% of bedrock recharge (equivalent to <2% of stream baseflow) flows below a depth of 20 m. The study demonstrates the considerable value of discrete‐depth hydrogeologic, chemical, and age data for determining active circulation depth, and illustrates an approach for maximizing the utility of individual boreholes drilled for mountain bedrock aquifer characterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dry Season Transpiration and Soil Water Dynamics in the Central Amazon

With current observations and future projections of more intense and frequent droughts in the tropics, understanding the impact that extensive dry periods may have on tree and ecosystem-level transpiration and concurrent carbon uptake has become increasingly important. Here, we investigate paired soil and tree water extraction dynamics in an old-growth upland forest in central Amazonia during the 2018 dry season. Tree water use was assessed via radial patterns of sap flow in eight dominant canopy trees, each a different species with a range in diameter, height, and wood density. Paired multi-sensor soil moisture probes used to quantify volumetric water content dynamics and soil water extraction within the upper 100 cm were installed adjacent to six of those trees. To link depth-specific water extraction patterns to root distribution, fine root biomass was assessed through the soil profile to 235 cm. To scale tree water use to the plot level (stand transpiration), basal area was measured for all trees within a 5 m radius around each soil moisture probe. The sensitivity of tree transpiration to reduced precipitation varied by tree, with some increasing and some decreasing in water use during the dry period. Tree-level water use scaled with sapwood area, from 11 to 190 L per day. Stand level water use, based on multiple plots encompassing sap flow and adjacent trees, varied from ∼1.7 to 3.3 mm per day, increasing linearly with plot basal area. Soil water extraction was dependent on root biomass, which was dense at the surface (i.e., 45% in the upper 5 cm) and declined dramatically with depth. As the dry season progressed and the upper soil dried, soil water extraction shifted to deeper levels and model projections suggest that much of the water used during the month-long dry-down could be extracted from the upper 2–3 m. Results indicate variation in rates of soil water extraction across the research area and, temporally, through the soil profile. These results provide key information on whole-tree contributions to transpiration by canopy trees as water availability changes. In addition, information on simultaneous stand level dynamics of soil water extraction that can inform mechanistic models that project tropical forest response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extracting band edge profiles at semiconductor heterostructures from hard-x-ray core-level photoelectron spectra

Hard-x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (HAXPES) is a valuable source of information on band-edge profiles deep inside semiconductor thin films and heterojunctions. However, extracting this information requires robust and physically meaningful decomposition of spectra into contributions from individual atomic planes. We present an approach that utilizes the physical requirements of a monotonic dependence of the built-in electrostatic potential on depth and continuity of the potential function and its derivatives. These constraints enable efficient extraction of band-edge profiles and allow one to capture details of the electronic structure, including determination of the signs and magnitudes of the band bending as well as the valence band offsets. The utility of this approach to generate quantitative insight into the electronic structure of complex materials is illustrated for epitaxial SrTiO 3 on intrinsic Si(001).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Observations Pertaining to Precipitation within the Northeast Pacific Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Three genuine stratocumulus-to-cumulus transitions sampled during the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign are documented. The focus is on Lagrangian evolution of in situ precipitation, thought to exceed radar/lidar retrieved values because of Mie scattering. Two of the three initial stratocumulus cases are pristine [cloud droplet number concentrations ($N_d$) of ~22 cm –3 ] but occupied boundary layers of different depths, while the third is polluted ($N_d$ ~ 225 cm –3 ). Hourly satellite-derived cloud fraction along Lagrangian trajectories indicate that more quickly deepening boundary layers tend to transition faster, into more intense but more occasional precipitation. These transitions begin either in the morning or late afternoon, suggesting that preceding night processes can precondition or delay the inevitable transition. The precipitation shifts toward larger drop sizes throughout the transition as the boundary layers deepen, with aerosol concentrations only diminishing in two of the three cases. Ultraclean ($N_d$ < 1 cm –3 ) cumulus clouds evolved from pristine stratocumulus cloud with unusually high precipitation rates occupying a shallow, well-mixed boundary layer. Results from a simple one-dimensional evaporation model and from radar/lidar retrievals suggest subcloud evaporation likely increases throughout the transition. This, coupled with larger drop sizes capable of lowering the latent cooling profile, facilitates the transition to more surface-driven convection. The coassociation between boundary layer depth and precipitation does not provide definitive conclusions on the isolated effect of precipitation on the pace of the transition. Differences between the initial conditions of the three examples provide opportunities for further modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultrafast two-photon fluorescence imaging of cerebral blood circulation in the mouse brain in vivo

Characterizing blood flow dynamics in vivo is critical to understanding the function of the vascular network under physiological and pathological conditions. Existing methods for hemodynamic imaging have insufficient spatial and temporal resolution to monitor blood flow at the cellular level in large blood vessels. By using an ultrafast line-scanning module based on free-space angular chirped enhanced delay, we achieved two-photon fluorescence imaging of cortical blood flow at 1,000 two-dimensional (2D) frames and 1,000,000 one-dimensional line scans per second in the awake mouse. This orders-of-magnitude increase in temporal resolution allowed us to measure cerebral blood flow at up to 49 mm/s and observe pulsatile blood flow at harmonics of heart rate. Directly visualizing red blood cell (RBC) flow through vessels down to >800 µm in depth, we characterized cortical layer–dependent flow velocity distributions of capillaries, obtained radial velocity profiles and kilohertz 2D velocity mapping of multifile blood flow, and performed RBC flux measurements from penetrating blood vessels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Near total reflection x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy: quantifying chemistry at solid/liquid and solid/solid interfaces

Near total reflection regime has been widely used in x-ray science, specifically in grazing incidence small angle x-ray scattering and in hard x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). In this work, we introduce some practical aspects of using near total reflection (NTR) in ambient pressure XPS and apply this technique to study chemical concentration gradients in a substrate/photoresist system. Experimental data are accompanied by x-ray optical and photoemission simulations to quantitatively probe the photoresist and the interface with the depth accuracy of ~1 nm. Together, our calculations and experiments confirm that NTR XPS is a suitable method to extract information from buried interfaces with highest depth-resolution, which can help address open research questions regarding our understanding of concentration profiles, electrical gradients, and charge transfer phenomena at such interfaces. Furthermore, the presented methodology is especially attractive for solid/liquid interface studies, since it provides all the strengths of a Bragg-reflection standing-wave spectroscopy without the need of an artificial multilayer mirror serving as a standing wave generator, thus dramatically simplifying the sample synthesis.

solid/solid interface↗

Organic carbon feedbacks to soil structure in Profundihumic and Haplic Ferralsols in Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Increasing soil organic matter content coincides with increasing soil porosity and decreasing bulk density, but the mechanisms that lead to changes in soil structure are unclear. We quantified and compared soil characteristics across two contrasting soils (heavily weathered ferralsols in Brazil) to clarify the effects of organic matter content on soil porosity. We found that high organic matter content fosters higher biologic activity, including root growth and animal burrowing, which in turn increase soil porosity and decreases bulk density.This dataset includes soil physical, morophological, and chemical variables from 6 soil profiles were sampled in Campinas, Sa ̃o Paulo state, southeastern Brazil to 1 m depth. Sites are regenerated mixed savanna and rainforest in the protected area of Viracopos Airport in Campinas, lightly grazed by cattle.This dataset includes soil color, bulk density, texture (percent sand, silt, clay, and coarse fragments as well as class), soil pH, cation exchange capacity, C stock, C concentration, N stock, N concentration, delta 13C, Delta 14C, and soil porosity in Excel and csv format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

Depth dependence of climatic controls on soil microbial community activity and composition

Abstract Subsoil microbiomes play important roles in soil carbon and nutrient cycling, yet our understanding of the controls on subsoil microbial communities is limited. Here, we investigated the direct (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and indirect (soil chemistry) effects of climate on microbiome composition and extracellular enzyme activity throughout the soil profile across two elevation-bioclimatic gradients in central California, USA. We found that microbiome composition changes and activity decreases with depth. Across these sites, the direct influence of climate on microbiome composition and activity was relatively lower at depth. Furthermore, we found that certain microbial taxa change in relative abundance over large temperature and precipitation gradients only in specific soil horizons, highlighting the depth dependence of the climatic controls on microbiome composition. Our finding that the direct impacts of climate are muted at depth suggests that deep soil microbiomes may lag in their acclimation to new temperatures with a changing climate.

16S rRNA↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗