SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Low- ν method with LHC neutrinos

The Forward Physics Facility (FPF) plans to use neutrinos produced at the Large Hadron Collider to make a variety of measurements at previously unexplored TeV energies. Its primary goals include precision measurements of the neutrino cross section and using the measured neutrino flux both to uncover information about far-forward hadron production and to search for various beyond standard model scenarios. However, these goals have the potential to conflict: Extracting information about the flux or cross section relies upon an assumption about the other. In this paper, we demonstrate that the FPF can use the low- ν method—a technique for constraining the flux shape by isolating neutrino interactions with low energy transfer to the nucleus—to break this degeneracy. We show that the low- ν method is effective for extracting the ν μ flux shape, in a model-independent way. We discuss its application for extracting the ν ¯ μ flux shape but find that this is significantly more model dependent. Finally, we explore the precision to which the ν μ flux shape could be constrained at the FPF for a variety of proposed detector options. We find that the precision would be sufficient to discriminate between various realistic flux models. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Rocket exhaust ground cloud/atmospheric interactions

An attempt to identify and minimize the uncertainties and potential inaccuracies of the NASA Multilayer Diffusion Model (MDM) is performed using data from selected Titan 3 launches. The study is based on detailed parametric calculations using the MDM code and a comparative study of several other diffusion models, the NASA measurements, and the MDM. The results are discussed and evaluated. In addition, the physical/chemical processes taking place during the rocket cloud rise are analyzed. The exhaust properties and the deluge water effects are evaluated. A time-dependent model for two aerosol coagulations is developed and documented. Calculations using this model for dry deposition during cloud rise are made. A simple model for calculating physical properties such as temperature and air mass entrainment during cloud rise is also developed and incorporated with the aerosol model.

Hwang, B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Masses of Mars/Seasonal Polar Icecaps

Radio tracking of the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has revealed temporal changes in the long-wavelength gravity field of Mars that correlate, to first order, with the pattern expected for the seasonal redistribution of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and surface. Detecting these gravity field changes requires isolating very small perturbations in the velocity of the spacecraft and estimating the very low degree zonal coefficients of the field. A comparison of these coefficients determined every 5 days for a period over 2 Mars years shows annual and semi-annual variations that are similar to those predicted by a General Circulation Model simulation. These changes result from the redistribution of the mass of the planet by the exchange of carbon dioxide between the surface and the atmosphere through deposition and sublimation of CO2 in the polar regions. A simple time-dependent model for the icecaps enables an estimate to be made of the mass of carbon dioxide at each pole as a function of the seasonal parameter, Ls.

Smith, David E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS1985

The intensity recovery of Forbush-type decreases as a function of heliocentric distance and its relationship to the 11-year variation

Recent data indicating that the solar modulation effects are propagated outward in the heliospheric cavity suggest that the 11-year cosmic ray modulation can best be described by a dynamic time dependent model. In this context an understanding of the recovery characteristics of large transient Forbush type decreases is important. This includes the typical recovery time at a fixed energy at 1 AU as well as at large heliocentric radial distances, the energy dependence of the recovery time at 1 Au, and the dependence of the time for the intensity to decrease to the minimum in the transient decreases as a function of distance. These transient decreases are characterized by their asymmetrical decrease and recovery times, generally 1 to 2 days and 3 to 10 days respectively at approx. 1 AU. Near earth these are referred to as Forbush decreases, associated witha shock or blast wave passage. At R equal to or greater than + or - 10 AU, these transient decreases may represent the combined effects of several shock waves that have merged together.

Lockwood, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone - However, models will tend to overpredict O3

Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. The basic processes are illustrated with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Neutralizer Hollow Cathode Simulations and Comparisons with Ground Test Data

The fidelity of electric propulsion physics-based models depends largely on the validity of their predictions over a range of operating conditions and geometries. In general, increased complexity of the physics requires more extensive comparisons with laboratory data to identify the region(s) that lie outside the validity of the model assumptions and to quantify the uncertainties within its range of application. This paper presents numerical simulations of neutralizer hollow cathodes at various operating conditions and orifice sizes. The simulations were performed using a two-dimensional axisymmetric model that solves numerically a relatively extensive system of conservation laws for the partially ionized gas in these devices. A summary of the comparisons between simulation results and Langmuir probe measurements is provided. The model has also been employed to provide insight into recent ground test observations of the neutralizer cathode in NEXT. It is found that a likely cause of the observed keeper voltage drop is cathode orifice erosion. However, due to the small magnitude of this change, is approx. 0.5 V (less than 5% of the beginning-of-life value) over 10 khrs, and in light of the large uncertainties of the cathode material sputtering yield at low ion energies, other causes cannot be excluded. Preliminary simulations to understand transition to plume mode suggest that in the range of 3-5 sccm the existing 2-D model reproduces fairly well the rise of the keeper voltage in the NEXT neutralizer as observed in the laboratory. At lower flow rates the simulation produces oscillations in the keeper current and voltage that require prohibitively small time-steps to resolve with the existing algorithms.

electric propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2009

Neutralizer Hollow Cathode Simulations and Validation with Experiments

partially ionized gases↗

DOE OSTI2026

A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and sphalerons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and electroweak sphalerons using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC during the 2016–2018 data taking, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , is presented. Two search strategies based on control samples in data are used. Model-independent limits on the cross section of physics phenomena with multiple energetic jets, leptons, and photons are set using a method that relies on the shape invariance of the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of all objects in the event. Model-dependent limits on black hole and sphaleron production are set using a newly introduced method that has been developed for the identification of collider events with distinct kinematic features by separating them into classes based on phase space proximity. In the context of models with large extra dimensions, semiclassical black holes and string balls with masses below 8.4–11.4 TeV and 9.0–10.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% confidence level, significantly extending the reach beyond previous searches. Results of a dedicated search for electroweak sphalerons are used to derive an upper limit of 0.0034 at 95% confidence level on the fraction of quark-quark interactions, with a center-of-mass energy above the nominal sphaleron transition energy threshold of 9 TeV, that result in a sphaleron transition.

Beyond Standard Model↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mental Models of Software Forecasting

The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

Cost Models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Void Morphology on Detonation Initiation of PBX 9502

Accurate predictive modeling of high explosives in abnormal conditions, such as a fire, is critical to personnel safety. Modeling depends heavily on precise physical characterization of the high explosive in question. The aim of this thesis was to characterize the detonation response to shock and the microstructure at high-temperature (250°C) of PBX 9502 and use these data to attempt to model these results using a new reactive burn model called SURF (Scaled Uniform Reactive Front). In order to characterize the shock response of PBX 9502 at high-temperature a 1D gas gun experiment was designed and executed that provided shock to detonation transition data. These data were then used to do a preliminary calibration of SURF for PBX 9502 at 250°C. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) was employed to characterize the void morphology of PBX 9502 as a function of temperature. This was done in order to feed a modified version of SURF called physically informed - SURF (π-SURF) which uses the void size and quantity distribution data as measured by SANS along with the deflagration and detonation characteristics of a high explosive to inform the SURF model. The π-SURF model was then used to model both ambient and high-temperature PBX 9502 SDT response and the results were compared to the physically measured results. It was found that π-SURF works in ambient cases. At high-temperature, however, it was determined that not enough information is known about hot spot formation to use the π-SURF model for high-temperature scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1992

Models for Galaxy halos in an open universe

The properties of simple, self-consistent infall models which embed an 'isothermal' dark halo in an open universe are presented. These models depend on one scaling parameter and two shape parameters. The first may be taken to be the circular velocity in the inner regions, and the others to be the density of the universe, Omega, and a measure, e, of the shape of orbits. These models provide a useful description of ensembles of satellite galaxies, or of binary galaxies, because they allow explicitly for the fact that such systems have orbital periods approaching the age of the universe and so cannot have a random orbital phase.

White, Simon D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Intrinsic two-dimensional features as textons

We suggest that intrinsic two-dimensional (i2D) features, computationally defined as the outputs of nonlinear operators that model the activity of end-stopped neurons, play a role in preattentive texture discrimination. We first show that for discriminable textures with identical power spectra the predictions of traditional models depend on the type of nonlinearity and fail for energy measures. We then argue that the concept of intrinsic dimensionality, and the existence of end-stopped neurons, can help us to understand the role of the nonlinearities. Furthermore, we show examples in which models without strong i2D selectivity fail to predict the correct ranking order of perceptual segregation. Our arguments regarding the importance of i2D features resemble the arguments of Julesz and co-workers regarding textons such as terminators and crossings. However, we provide a computational framework that identifies textons with the outputs of nonlinear operators that are selective to i2D features.

Discrimination (Psychology)/physiology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years

Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

A sequential decoding performance analysis for International Comet Explorer

The effect of a noisy reference carrier on the performance of International Comet Explorer (ICE) Sequential decoder is analyzed. Ideal reference models for frame deletion probability are given for the Telemetry Processing Assembly (TPA) and the Linkabit (LS4815) sequential decoders. Based on these ideal reference models the deletion probability in the presence of noisy reference carrier is computed for both the high and the low data rate cases. A medium data rate performance model is then derived using an interpolation method. The derived medium rate performance model depends on the phase locked loop bandwidth-integration time product. Results are obtained for frame length 1024 bits, data bit rates of 1024 bps and 512 bps, modulation index of 60 deg, and threshold loop bandwidths of 10 Hz and 3 Hz. The medium rate model agrees with experimental data to within measurement uncertainty. For the 10 Hz loop bandwidth and modulation index of 60 deg at frame deletion rate of 0.0001, the required total received power to noise ratio is 36 dB. The analysis given is general and applicable to any sequential decoder, provided that the ideal reference model of the decoder is available.

Divsalar, D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei - Vertically averaged models

Simple models of accretion disks surrounding supermassive black holes in AGN are constructed. By considering several different opacity laws, it is shown that some conclusions arrived at by previous investigators are model-dependent. A simple technique for solving the full vertically averaged disk equations, taking into account both self-gravity and central object gravity and gas pressure and radiation pressure, is presented. The self-consistency of the standard non-self-gravitating, geometrically thin accretion disk models is discussed, and the findings of Lin and Shields (1986) that such models are valid only in a restricted parameter space are confirmed.

Cannizzo, John K.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Arctic Warming in Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL-CM3) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies-ModelE version 2. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e. Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2017

Testing the Accuracy of Data-Driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are "data-driven" at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hours can be modeled by the data-driving method with only approximately 1 percent error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

Leake, James E.↗