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Martian cratering V - Toward an empirical Martian chronology, and its implications

This paper estimates ages of Martian features by dividing least-square-fitted crater densities by an estimated Martian crater production rate. This method is more rigorous than methods based purely on assumptions about correspondence of lunar and Martian cratering rates. Results are interpreted as supporting the conclusion of Burns et al (in press) that Mars shifted climatic states due to a change in obliguity caused by buildup of massive volcanics. Prior to a few gy. ago, conditions favored erosion, deposition, and fluvial channel formation. Recent volcanics postdate this era, and the surfaces of the major shields are fairly well constrained in age to a few hundred my, in agreement with Masursky et al.

Hartmann, W. K.↗

Semiempirical Two-Dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic Model of the Solar Corona and Interplanetary Medium

We have developed a two-dimensional semiempirical MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind. The model uses empirically derived electron density profiles from white-light coronagraph data measured during the Skylub period and an empirically derived model of the magnetic field which is fitted to observed streamer topologies, which also come from the white-light coronagraph data The electron density model comes from that developed by Guhathakurta and coworkers. The electron density model is extended into interplanetary space by using electron densities derived from the Ulysses plasma instrument. The model also requires an estimate of the solar wind velocity as a function of heliographic latitude and radial component of the magnetic field at 1 AU, both of which can be provided by the Ulysses spacecraft. The model makes estimates as a function of radial distance and latitude of various fluid parameters of the plasma such as flow velocity V, effective temperature T(sub eff), and effective heat flux q(sub eff), which are derived from the equations of conservation of mass, momentum, and energy, respectively. The term effective indicates that wave contributions could be present. The model naturally provides the spiral pattern of the magnetic field far from the Sun and an estimate of the large-scale surface magnetic field at the Sun, which we estimate to be approx. 12 - 15 G. The magnetic field model shows that the large-scale surface magnetic field is dominated by an octupole term. The model is a steady state calculation which makes the assumption of azimuthal symmetry and solves the various conservation equations in the rotating frame of the Sun. The conservation equations are integrated along the magnetic field direction in the rotating frame of the Sun, thus providing a nearly self-consistent calculation of the fluid parameters. The model makes a minimum number of assumptions about the physics of the solar corona and solar wind and should provide a very accurate empirical description of the solar corona and solar wind Once estimates of mass density rho, flow velocity V, effective temperature T(sub eff), effective heat flux q(sub eff), and magnetic field B are computed from the model and waves are assumed unimportant, all other plasma parameters such as Mach number, Alfven speed, gyrofrequency, etc. can be derived as a function of radial distance and latitude from the Sun. The model can be used as a planning tool for such missions as Slar Probe and provide an empirical framework for theoretical models of the solar corona and solar wind The model will be used to construct a semiempirical MHD description of the steady state solar corona and solar wind using the SOHO Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) polarized brightness white-light coronagraph data, SOHO Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope data, and Ulysses plasma data.

Sittler, Edward C., Jr.↗

Estimation and Modeling of Enceladus Plume Density Using Attitude Control Data Collected by the Cassini Spacecraft During Low-Altitude Enceladus Flybys

The Cassini spacecraft was launched on 15 October 1997. After an interplanetary cruise of almost seven years, it arrived at Saturn on June 30, 2004. Major science objectives of the Cassini mission include investigations of the configuration and dynamics of Saturn's magnetosphere, the structure and composition of the rings, the characterization of several of Saturn's icy satellites, and Titan's atmosphere constituent abundance

Enceladus↗

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

Mixture densities, maximum likelihood, and the EM algorithm

The problem of estimating the parameters which determine a mixture density is reviewed as well as maximum likelihood estimation for it. A particular iterative procedure for numerically approximating maximum likelihood estimates for mixture density problems is considered. This EM algorithm, is a specialization to the mixture density context of a general algorithm of the same name used to approximate maximum likelihood estimates for incomplete data problems. The formulation and theoretical and practical properties of the EM algorithm for mixture densities are discussed focussing in particular on mixtures of densities from exponential families.

Redner, R. A.↗

Satellite Geopotential Anomaly Constraints for the Crust of the Greenland-Iceland Region

Satellite magnetometer observations of the Greenland-Iceland region compare quite well with lower altitude data. The satellite magnetic data suggest magnetically enhanced crust was emplaced by the Iceland Plume. Crustal thicknesses, which may be more than 30 km for the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, were obtained from inversion of the compensating terrain gravity effects that were estimated by spectral correlation analysis of the free-air gravity anomalies and terrain gravity effects. Regional magnetic anomaly maxima overlie possible thickened crust from eastern Iceland to the Greenland Coast. The Iceland-Faroe Ridge may involve thinner crust than the Greenland-Iceland portion of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. The gravity derived crustal model exceeds a 0.7 correlation with available seismic estimates. In thermally active areas our gravity Moho estimates are systematically deeper than the seismic estimates suggesting local density reductions of the underlying lower crust/upper mantle. In south central Greenland, on the other hand, the gravity Moho estimates are shallower than seismic estimates to suggest a local enhancement of the lower crust/upper mantle density. The dichotomous crust of the Greenland-Iceland and Iceland-Faroe Ridges suggests unequal crustal development by the Iceland Plume and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where more crustal material may have been contributed to the North Atlantic Plate than the Eurasian Plate. A new thermal modeling scheme based on Poisson's relation between point pole gravity and thermal potentials allows estimation of magnetic crustal thicknesses. Subsequent magnetic anomaly inversion for susceptibility contrasts infers crustal development of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge by temporally variable pulses in plume strength.

vonFrese, R. R.↗

Constrained Kalman Filtering Via Density Function Truncation for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter truncates the PDF (probability density function) of the Kalman filter estimate at the known constraints and then computes the constrained filter estimate as the mean of the truncated PDF. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is demonstrated via simulation results obtained from a turbofan engine model. The turbofan engine model contains 3 state variables, 11 measurements, and 10 component health parameters. It is also shown that the truncated Kalman filter may be a more accurate way of incorporating inequality constraints than other constrained filters (e.g., the projection approach to constrained filtering).

Simon, Dan↗

Small grains and IRAS colors

The paper studies how infrared colors of dust emission from the interstellar medium vary with the energy density of the radiation field on the basis of IRAS observation of the California Nebula. The data suggest that color variations result from a combinatin of equilibrium emission from large grains, and nonequilibrium emission from small grains, with destruction of the small grains emitting at 12 microns at high energy density; it is estimated that 80 percent of these small particles are destroyed for an energy density in ultraviolet photons larger than 50 times that of the average interstellar radiation field in the solar neighborhood. In a color-color diagram, I(v)(60 microns)/I(v)(100 microns) versus I(v)(12 microns)/I(v)(25 microns), the California Nebula measurements at various distances to the ionizing star Zeta Per follow a sequence similar to that of galaxies. This result shows that the position of a galaxy along this sequence is a measure of the intensity of the radiation field in the regions responsible for the infrared emission.

Boulanger, F.↗

Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations

Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.

Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗

Efficient star formation in the spiral arms of M51

The molecular, neutral, and ionized hydrogen distributions in the Sbc galaxy M51 (NGC 5194) are compared. To estimate H2 surface densities observations of the CO (J = 1 - 0) transition were made in 60 positions out to a radius of 155 arcsec. Extinction-corrected H-alpha intensities were used to compute the detailed massive star formation rates (MSFRs) in the disk. Estimates of the gas surface density, the MSFR, and the ratio of these quantities, MSFR/sigma(p), were then examined. The spiral arms were found to exhibit an excess gas density, measuring between 1.4 and 1.6 times the interarm values at 45 arcsec resolution. The total (arm and interarm) gas content and massive star formation rates in concentric annuli in the disk of M51 were computed. The two quantities fall off together with radius, yielding a relatively constant MSFR/sigma(p) with radius. This behavior is not explained by current models of star formation in galactic disks.

Lord, Steven D.↗

Interstellar abundances derived from IUE data. I - Silicon depletions toward reddened stars

Surveys of abundances for species well suited to IUE's wavelength coverage and spectral resolution are undertaken to acquire interstellar line data for a large number of stars and column densities greater than those of previous instruments. A complex set of interactive computer programs has been developed for the efficient analysis of the IUE data, which is described along with results on Si II column densities toward two moderately reddened stars. Silicon depletions are inferred in the cases of the two stars, HD 42088 and HD 151804, and their H I column density determinations are used to estimate the total hydrogen column density.

Snow, T. P., Jr.↗

Longitudinal Differences of Ionospheric Vertical Density Distribution and Equatorial Electrodynamics

Accurate estimation of global vertical distribution of ionospheric and plasmaspheric density as a function of local time, season, and magnetic activity is required to improve the operation of space-based navigation and communication systems. The vertical density distribution, especially at low and equatorial latitudes, is governed by the equatorial electrodynamics that produces a vertical driving force. The vertical structure of the equatorial density distribution can be observed by using tomographic reconstruction techniques on ground-based global positioning system (GPS) total electron content (TEC). Similarly, the vertical drift, which is one of the driving mechanisms that govern equatorial electrodynamics and strongly affect the structure and dynamics of the ionosphere in the low/midlatitude region, can be estimated using ground magnetometer observations. We present tomographically reconstructed density distribution and the corresponding vertical drifts at two different longitudes: the East African and west South American sectors. Chains of GPS stations in the east African and west South American longitudinal sectors, covering the equatorial anomaly region of meridian approx. 37 deg and 290 deg E, respectively, are used to reconstruct the vertical density distribution. Similarly, magnetometer sites of African Meridian B-field Education and Research (AMBER) and INTERMAGNET for the east African sector and South American Meridional B-field Array (SAMBA) and Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) are used to estimate the vertical drift velocity at two distinct longitudes. The comparison between the reconstructed and Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measured density profiles shows excellent agreement, demonstrating the usefulness of tomographic reconstruction technique in providing the vertical density distribution at different longitudes. Similarly, the comparison between magnetometer estimated vertical drift and other independent drift observation, such as from VEFI onboard Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite and JULIA radar, is equally promising. The observations at different longitudes suggest that the vertical drift velocities and the vertical density distribution have significant longitudinal differences; especially the equatorial anomaly peaks expand to higher latitudes more in American sector than the African sector, indicating that the vertical drift in the American sector is stronger than the African sector.

total electron content↗

Methods for Estimating Environmental Effects and Constraints on NexGen: High Density Case Study

This document provides a summary of the current methods developed by Metron Aviation for the estimate of environmental effects and constraints on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This body of work incorporates many of the key elements necessary to achieve such an estimate. Each section contains the background and motivation for the technical elements of the work, a description of the methods used, and possible next steps. The current methods described in this document were selected in an attempt to provide a good balance between accuracy and fairly rapid turn around times to best advance Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) System Modeling and Analysis Division (SMAD) objectives while also supporting the needs of the JPDO Environmental Working Group (EWG). In particular this document describes methods applied to support the High Density (HD) Case Study performed during the spring of 2008. A reference day (in 2006) is modeled to describe current system capabilities while the future demand is applied to multiple alternatives to analyze system performance. The major variables in the alternatives are operational/procedural capabilities for airport, terminal, and en route airspace along with projected improvements to airframe, engine and navigational equipment.

Augustine, S.↗

Kinematics of the Orion A molecular cloud

Examination of the velocity structure of J = 1 to J = 0 emission of CO in the Orion A molecular cloud, including a presentation of extended strip maps in both declination and right ascension intersecting at the position of peak intensity. The results in declination show evidence for large-scale rotation, while the right ascension maps show features which can be interpreted as gravitational condensations. The observed rotation is found to be sufficient to support a density equal to that estimated for the cloud (an H2 number density of about 2000 per cu cm).

Linke, R. A.↗

The electron density in M82 from the S III mid-infrared line ratio

Strong detections have been made of both the 18.7 microns and 33.4 microns lines of S III in the irregular galaxy M82. This represents the first detection of the 33.4 microns line in an extragalactic object. These measurements sample the ionized gas component which dominates the observed infrared forbidden line and infrared hydrogen recombination line emission. From the ratio of the line fluxes an electron density of 120 (+ 280, - 120) per cu cm is deduced. This result is in agreement with previous estimates of the density derived from high-frequency radio continuum measurements and an assumed emitting volume. They impose further constraints on possible starburst models.

Houck, J. R.↗

Lithospheric bending at subduction zones based on depth soundings and satellite gravity

A global study of trench flexure was performed by simultaneously modeling 117 bathymetric profiles (original depth soundings) and satellite-derived gravity profiles. A thin, elastic plate flexure model was fit to each bathymetry/gravity profile by minimization of the L(sub 1) norm. The six model parameters were regional depth, regional gravity, trench axis location, flexural wavelength, flexural amplitude, and lithospheric density. A regional tilt parameter was not required after correcting for age-related trend using a new high-resolution age map. Estimates of the density parameter confirm that most outer rises are uncompensated. We find that flexural wavelength is not an accurate estimate of plate thickness because of the high curvatures observed at a majority of trenches. As in previous studies, we find that the gravity data favor a longer-wavelength flexure than the bathymetry data. A joint topography-gravity modeling scheme and fit criteria are used to limit acceptable parameter values to models for which topography and gravity yield consistent results. Even after the elastic thicknesses are converted to mechanical thicknesses using the yield strength envelope model, residual scatter obscures the systematic increase of mechanical thickness with age; perhaps this reflects the combination of uncertainties inherent in estimating flexural wavelength, such as extreme inelastic bending and accumulated thermoelastic stress. The bending moment needed to support the trench and outer rise topography increases by a factor of 10 as lithospheric age increases from 20 to 150 Ma; this reflects the increase in saturation bending moment that the lithosphere can maintain. Using a stiff, dry-olivine rheology, we find that the lithosphere of the GDH1 thermal model (Stein and Stein, 1992) is too hot and thin to maintain the observed bending moments. Moreover, the regional depth seaward of the oldest trenches (approximately 150 Ma) exceeds the GDH1 model depths by about 400 m.

Levitt, Daniel A.↗

Physical Properties of a Coronal Hole from a Coronal Diagnostics Spectrometer, Mauna Loa Coronagraph, and LASCO Observations during the Whole Sun Month

Until recently, inference of electron density distribution in the solar corona was limited by the field of view of white-light coronagraphs (typically out to 6 Rs). Now, for the first time we have a series of white- light coronagraphs (SOHO/LASCO) whose combined field of view extends from 1.1 - 30 Rs. Quantitative information on electron density distribution of coronal hole and coronal plumes/rays are estimated by using white-light, polarized brightness (pB) observations from the SOHO/LASCO/C2 and C3 and HAO/Mauna Loa Mark III coronagraphs from 1.15 to 8.0 Rs. Morphological information on the boundary of the polar coronal hole and streamer interface is determined from the white-light observations in a manner similar to the Skylab polar coronal hole boundary estimate. The average coronal hole electron density in the region 1 - 1.15 Rs is estimated from the density-sensitive EUV line ratios of Si IX 3501342 A observed by the SOHO/coronal diagnostic spectrometer (CDS). We combine these numbers with the estimate from white-light (WL) observations to obtain a density profile from 1 to 8 Rs for the plumes and the polar coronal hole. We find that white light and spectral analysis produce consistent density information. Extrapolated densities inferred from SOHO observations are compared to Ulysses in situ observations of density. Like the density inferred from the Spartan 201-03 coronagraph, the current SOHO density profiles suggest that the acceleration of the fast solar wind takes place very close to the Sun, within 10-15 Rs. The density information is used to put constraints on solar wind flow velocities and effective temperatures. Finally, these results are compared to the recent analysis of the Spartan 201-03 white-light observations.

Guhathakurta, M.↗