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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.

Olsson, Josefine A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic analysis of masked loads with aggregated photovoltaic production

In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the photovoltaic generation and a stochastic differential equation with jumps that represents the demand. Here, we employ this model to disaggregate the behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation using net load and irradiance measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A high fidelity and user-friendly equation-oriented optimization model for carbon capture using a novel water-lean solvent

Research Triangle Institute (RTI) International and SLB have developed a novel water-lean solvent technology for carbon capture, demonstrating low specific reboiler duty (SRD) values at capture rates exceeding 90%. At the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) pilot plant, the technology achieved an SRD of 2.55 GJ/t-CO2 at 95% capture, utilizing an intercooler and a 5°C temperature approach in the lean/rich solvent cross exchanger. To meet varying carbon capture targets for Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) studies and to enable real-time optimization and advanced process control, an efficient optimization model is required. This model needs to minimize energy demand for a given capture rate and determine optimal operating parameters in response to fluctuating flue gas conditions. While an existing Aspen Plus simulation model, developed by RTI and SLB, accurately matches TCM plant data, its sequential modular (SM) strategy is too slow for real-time applications due to recycle streams and tight heat integration inherent in solvent-based carbon capture processes. Although an equation-oriented (EO) modeling strategy is more suitable for optimizing these processes, its adoption has been limited by several factors: feature limitations in Aspen Plus EO mode (e.g., lack of balance block support), a less user-friendly interface for variable identification and loop solving, complex troubleshooting of convergence issues, and the necessity for accurate initial values.

carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Transactive Control of Flexible Building Loads Under Distribution LMP

With grid modernization efforts, future distribution networks, which consist of various distributed generators and flexible loads, will be more flexible and active. All new network components of distributed energy resources (DERs) drive and enable the transition towards a market-based distribution net-work that seeks the optimal allocation of all DERs. To address challenges associated with DERs, one promising solution is to utilize demand-side flexibility of building loads facilitated by demand response (DR) programs and provide ancillary grid services through distribution-level markets. Under this new paradigm, this paper proposes an efficient DR management strategy incorporating emerging price signals of distribution markets, i.e., distribution locational marginal price (DLMP), based on a hierarchical transactive control approach. The proposed approach establishes a two-layer decision-making framework; the upper layer formulates a bilevel model to obtain an optimal demand response (ODR) under DLMP, and the lower layer employs model-free control to dispatch the (aggregated) ODR to individual end users. Numerical case studies using a modified IEEE 33 test network are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach; load shifting and peak shaving for the distribution system operator and payments’ reduction for end users while maintaining their comfort.

Park, Byungkwon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cities Topology - Curbs and Parking

Curbside activity has not traditionally been represented in transportation network modeling in high fidelity. Growing demand for curbside mean that prevailing practices are becoming increasingly untenable. Through outreach to expert practitioners, we established the state-of-practice and needs for quantitative modeling. We proposed a new modeling framework to allow curbspace managers to make optimal decisions about space allocation between legacy and emerging uses. Proposed future work will take the proposed approach and refine it to be suitable for standardized use by practitioners – to facilitate mobility and energy optimization through smart curbside management.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Files for "The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure"

This dataset includes modeling results from The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, including region-specific (i.e., national, state, and core-based statistical area [cities and towns]) electric vehicle supply equipment port count requirements in 2025 and 2030 for multiple scenarios described in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrifying High-Efficiency Future Communities: Impact on Energy, Emissions, and Grid

To combat climate change and meet decarbonization goals, the building sector is improving energy efficiency and electrifying end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. All-electric buildings are becoming a trend among new constructions, introducing opportunities for decarbonization but also technical challenges and research gaps. For instance, further investigation is needed to understand how the adoption of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and distributed energy resources (DERs) in all-electric communities would affect energy consumption, carbon emissions, and grid planning. This paper presents a case study of a mixed-use, all-electric community located in Denver, Colorado. We use URBANopt TM , a physics-based urban energy modeling platform to model the community and then evaluate the impact of EEMs and DERs (i.e., photovoltaics [PV], electric vehicles [EVs], and batteries) on the community's energy usage, carbon emissions, and peak demand. The results show that adding EEMs and PV led to both energy consumption and carbon emissions reductions across all building types. However, we saw fairly limited impact of EEMs and PV on buildings' peak demand in our case. Additionally, due to overnight EV charging activities and higher grid carbon intensity at night, the carbon emissions in multifamily buildings have a noticeable increase compared to scenarios without vehicles. Finally, the addition of batteries helped reduce peak demand by 11%-29%. The modeling workflow and evaluation methods can be applied to similar communities to evaluate their performance and the effect of integrating EEMs and DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Platinum Group Metals Global Economics Market Supply

Due to uncertainty in the transition away from internal combustion engines (and more importantly, the catalytic convertors these automobiles use), there is large uncertainty in the future of the PGM market. However, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers could be a new demand application for PGMs. Therefore, a model was developed which utilizes the system dynamics approach to predict supply and prices for specific demand scenarios. Results indicated that the total PGM market value sees a decline in the late 2020s due to changing automotive application demand. Market decline was due to decreasing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle demand resulting in less PGMs supplied for automotive applications. Compounding market decline was an increase in secondary supply of PGMs as more ICE automotives reach their EOL pushing PGM prices down as secondary supply increases while demand simultaneously decreases. Following the market decline, an increase in market value in the early 2030s was observed due to deployment of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and subsequent increase in PGM demand

Kulkarni, Sameer (0000000227573592)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing simulated demand flexibility against actual performance in commercial office buildings

Commercial building energy benchmarking has been used as a mechanism to evaluate energy use of a single building over time, relative to other similar buildings, or to simulations of a reference building conforming to various energy standards. Lack of empirical demand flexibility data and consistent flexibility metrics has limited the ability to compare demand flexibility performance with estimated demand flexibility in buildings. In this study, we collected demand response performance data for a total of 831 demand response events from 192 sites as a first step to build such a building demand flexibility dataset, and propose a standard core data schema to consolidate field data from different sources. We also performed parametric simulations of a control strategy called “global temperature adjustment” using commercial office prototype building models. We then compared the simulated demand flexibility performance against the actual data for offices with global temperature adjustment strategy implemented. During demand response events with an average outside air temperature of 34 °C (range 23 °C–42 °C), the measured demand decrease intensity of the demand flexibility metrics were 6.1 watts per square meter (W/m 2 ), 10.0 W/m 2 , 11.1 W/m 2 , 7.1 W/m 2 , and 4.7 W/m 2 for small, small–medium, medium, medium–large, and large office buildings, respectively. Compared to the measured data in medium- and large-size buildings, the simulated demand decrease intensity was 0.7 W/m 2 (17%) lower on average. The discrepancy between simulated and measured peak demand intensities fell within one standard deviation of the mean measured data. Here, the comparison results validate the credibility of simulations in capturing real building data for assessing the technical potential of building demand flexibility.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Collaborative Decision Approach for Electricity Pricing-demand Response Stackelberg Game

Demand response programs are considered as a valuable resource in smart grids that provide several advantages of load shifting, peak load reduction, mediating intermittency of renewable energy integration, etc. Flexible price-based incentives have been recognized as a critical strategy in motivating and compensating consumers' load adjustment actions for successful implementation of demand response. Game theoretical approaches, especially Stackelberg games are popularly adopted to model the relationship between electricity price and customers' demand response and solved by the classical centralized backward induction (BI) method. However, the BI method generally requires convexity of the follower's model for necessary optimality conditions, and the computational time of any centralized approach increases sharply with larger problem instances. In this paper, the Stackelberg game of electricity pricing-demand response between a distribution system operator (DSO) and load aggregators (LAs) is decomposed based on a collaborative optimization (CO) framework, where each LA is treated as a discipline with its own domain constraints (e.g. building temperature control), while the DSO at the system level tries to reduce the solution discrepancy and guide the searching towards optimality. Several groups of comparison experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed collaborative decision approach in solving the demand response game.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Energy Flow through Synthetic Metabolic Modules and Regulatory Networks in a Model Photosynthetic Eukaryotic Microbe

Photosynthetic organisms have recently gained considerable attention for a role in development of renewable energy sources. Genome-enabled systems biology methods, coupled with functional and synthetic genomics, present opportunities to develop sustainable and economical applications such as fuel production within the next 10 to 15 years. However, optimization of light-driven metabolism for biomass or biofuel production will require a detailed systems biology understanding of photosynthetic processes and cellular metabolism. Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) are at the core of systems analysis of cellular processes and form a common organizational framework for analyses of data resulting from functional genomics experimental work and computational studies. Therefore, there is a clear demand for high quality photosynthetic model organisms and the appropriate computational tools that enable systems analysis of light-driven metabolism. Through research conducted we expanded the currently available repertoire of photosynthetic GEMs to include the commercially valuable model diatom Phaeoctylum tricornutum. Diatoms have a peculiar and distinct evolutionary footprint and represent a major eukaryotic lineage that is taxonomically and functionally distinct from green and red algae and vascular plants. Therefore, the true potential for light-driven metabolism aimed at biofuel production remains poorly understood at a systems level for a large subset of the global diversity of photosynthetic organisms. The metabolic capabilities of P. tricornutum were comparatively modeled with those from other photosynthetic groups in order to elucidate the occurrence of metabolic traits within and between phototrophs. Additionally, this research resulted in significant extension of the COnstraints Based Reconstruction and Analysis (COBRA) Toolbox to accommodate the crucial need for infrastructure required for ‘omics data integration and analysis in the context of genome-scale models. Therefore, the proposed research achieved two important goals. First, within the broad scope of photosynthetic organisms, we functionally compared and, as a result, identified cellular processes that require optimization in order to enable deployment as biofuel feedstock. Second, the proposed research resulted in development of key computational infrastructure, which can be further extended to other biological systems, that is currently lacking but necessary for multiple ‘omics data integration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗