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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Effects of head-down bed rest on complex heart rate variability: Response to LBNP testing

Head-down bed rest is used to model physiological changes during spaceflight. We postulated that bed rest would decrease the degree of complex physiological heart rate variability. We analyzed continuous heart rate data from digitized Holter recordings in eight healthy female volunteers (age 28-34 yr) who underwent a 13-day 6 deg head-down bed rest study with serial lower body negative pressure (LBNP) trials. Heart rate variability was measured on a 4-min data sets using conventional time and frequency domain measures as well as with a new measure of signal 'complexity' (approximate entropy). Data were obtained pre-bed rest (control), during bed rest (day 4 and day 9 or 11), and 2 days post-bed rest (recovery). Tolerance to LBNP was significantly reduced on both bed rest days vs. pre-bed rest. Heart rate variability was assessed at peak LBNP. Heart rate approximate entropy was significantly decreased at day 4 and day 9 or 11, returning toward normal during recovery. Heart rate standard deviation and the ratio of high- to low-power frequency did not change significantly. We conclude that short-term bed rest is associated with a decrease in the complex variability of heart rate during LBNP testing in healthy young adult women. Measurement of heart rate complexity, using a method derived from nonlinear dynamics ('chaos theory'), may provide a sensitive marker of this loss of physiological variability, complementing conventional time and frequency domain statistical measures.

Goldberger, Ary L.↗

15-minute Parker River gap-filled tide height and salinity data, PIE LTER, Plum Island Sound, MA (2014–2023), for ELM PFLOTRAN modeling

This dataset contains 15-minute tide height and salinity data from the Typha site along the Parker River, part of the Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (PIE LTER) site in Plum Island Sound, Massachusetts (MA) 2014-2023. Tide height (in NAVD88) was compiled from measurements conducted at the mouth of Plum Island Sound and corrected for time lags. Gap-filling of missing periods were done by fitting tidal constituents to the time series. Salinity was measured (and is stored on ESS DIVE ) in 2022 and 2023 using HOBO U24-002 conductivity loggers. River discharge is the most important control on tidal river water salinity at the location (Vallino & Hopkinson, 1998). An artificial neural network was trained to predict river water salinity at the location using Parker River discharge (USGS station 01101000, Parker River at Byfield, MA) and gap-filled salinity observations from a long-term monitoring station ca. 3km downstream from the Typha site (LTER station ‘Middle Road’) as input variables to create continuous time series information. The data set was used in the spin up and simulations of a land surface model coupled to a biogeochemical reaction network (ELM PFLOTRAN) assessing impacts of hydrology and salinity input on methane fluxes in 2022 and 2023 (Sulman et al., 2024). Metadata files ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_dd.csv and ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_flmd.csv provide details on site location, data variables, and QA/QC methods .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emission Inventories from Natural Gas Storage Facilities using Regional Frequency Comb Laser Monitoring and Aircraft Flyovers. Final Report

The project centers around a ground-based regional methane sensor developed by the CU/NIST team members under the DOE ARPA-E MONITOR program, and sophisticated aircraft measurement techniques developed by the UCD/Scientific Aviation team (responsible for a recent Science publication quantifying the Aliso Canyon storage field release). The dual frequency-comb spectrometer is an invisible, eye-safe laser capable of measuring atmospheric methane concentrations along beam paths 1+ miles in length with high precision and stability (<1 ppb methane over 1 mile). The CU/NIST team has developed a unique approach to using a single, central spectrometer to locate and size methane emissions as small as 6 scfh from specific gas field structures within the 1+ mile range of the laser. Deployment involves the stationing of small cubic mirrors at strategic locations across the gas storage site. The mirrors direct light from the spectrometer back to a detector, where methane concentrations are recorded based on light absorption at specific wavelengths. The measurements are coupled with high resolution gas transport models based on meteorological measurements (wind, etc.) to determine the precise location and emission rate of methane sources. The calibration-free and continuous nature of dual frequency-comb spectrometer measurements means that a large area can be monitored continuously for temporal variability of emissions over long periods of time. The aircraft measurements involve spiral flights around storage facilities with a sensitive ethane/methane measurement package. Upwind/downwind concentration comparisons and wind data provide total facility emissions data. During this project, a new micrometeorological package was integrated onto the Scientific Aviation aircraft to provide even greater emissions quantification capability. In this project, the ground-based measurement system was deployed for 11 months (to capture seasonal variability) at a West Coast storage facility, together with a campaign of twice monthly aircraft total facility emissions flights. The data from these two modalities was combined to quantify the methane emissions from the facility with first-of-its-kind temporal and spatial detail. Concurrent with this deployment, the aircraft team performed flights to quantify emissions at a wider array of previously un-surveyed storage sites. The ground-based measurement system was then moved to an additional site of differing total storage and delivery capacity. Aircraft mass balance flights continued, repeatedly surveying (twice monthly) this site, as well as surveying a large number of previously un-assessed sites spanning a variety of size, reservoir type and age. Assessment of ground-based, temporally and spatially detailed methane emissions information alongside aircraft-derived methane total facility emissions information led to an improved understanding of emissions, relevant for inventories of the natural gas storage sector. In particular, this work provided temporal detail (seasonal of emissions and frequency of leaks) to stakeholders and personnel responsible for updates to the EPA’s GHGI. The impact of the proposed work has been a dramatic improvement in the temporal, spatial, and site- and type- specific detail and quantification of emissions inventories for the natural gas storage sector. This work directly benefits the EPA’s GHGI, directly ameliorates the environmental impacts and public health and safety of the natural gas storage sector, and aids policymakers and industry to make sound choices with respect to management and regulation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Assessment of Current Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Estimates Based on the TOPEX/Poseidon Jason-1 and 2 Climate Data Record

Recent developments in Precise Orbit Determinations (POD) due to in particular to revisions to the terrestrial reference frame realization and the time variable gravity (TVG) continues to provide improvements to the accuracy and stability of the PO directly affecting mean sea level (MSL) estimates. Long-term credible MSL estimates require the development and continued maintenance of a stable reference frame, along with vigilant monitoring of the performance of the independent tracking systems used to calculate the orbits for altimeter spacecrafts. The stringent MSL accuracy requirements of a few tenths of an mm/yr are particularly essential for mass budget closure analysis over the relative short time period of Jason-l &2, GRACE, and Argo coincident measurements. In an effort to adhere to cross mission consistency, we have generated a full time series of experimental orbits (GSFC stdlllO) for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP), Jason-I, and OSTM based on an improved terrestrial reference frame (TRF) realization (ITRF2008), revised static (GGM03s), and time variable gravity field (Eigen6s). In this presentation we assess the impact of the revised precision orbits on inter-mission bias estimates, and resultant global and regional MSL trends. Tide gauge verification results are shown to assess the current stability of the Jason-2 sea surface height time series that suggests a possible discontinuity initiated in early 2010. Although the Jason-2 time series is relatively short (approximately 3 years), a thorough review of the entire suite of geophysical and environmental range corrections is warranted and is underway to maintain the fidelity of the record.

Beckley, B. D.↗

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD)

Low clouds continue to contribute greatly to the uncertainty in cloud feedback estimates. Depending on whether a region is dominated by cumulus (Cu) or stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, the interannual low-cloud feedback is somewhat different in both spaceborne and large-eddy simulation studies. Therefore, simulating the correct amount and variation of the Cu and Sc cloud distributions could be crucial to predict future cloud feedbacks. Here we document spatial distributions and profiles of Sc and Cu clouds derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurements. For this purpose, we create a new dataset called the Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD), which identifies Sc, broken Sc, Cu under Sc, Cu with stratiform outflow and Cu. To separate the Cu from Sc, we design an original method based on the cloud height, horizontal extent, vertical variability and horizontal continuity, which is separately applied to both CALIPSO and combined CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. First, the choice of parameters used in the discrimination algorithm is investigated and validated in selected Cu, Sc and Sc–Cu transition case studies. Then, the global statistics are compared against those from existing passive- and active-sensor satellite observations. Our results indicate that the cloud optical thickness – as used in passive-sensor observations – is not a sufficient parameter to discriminate Cu from Sc clouds, in agreement with previous literature. Using clustering-derived datasets shows better results although one cannot completely separate cloud types with such an approach. On the contrary, classifying Cu and Sc clouds and the transition between them based on their geometrical shape and spatial heterogeneity leads to spatial distributions consistent with prior knowledge of these clouds, from ground-based, ship-based and field campaigns. Furthermore, we show that our method improves existing Sc–Cu classifications by using additional information on cloud height and vertical cloud fraction variation. Finally, the CASCCAD datasets provide a basis to evaluate shallow convection and stratocumulus clouds on a global scale in climate models and potentially improve our understanding of low-level cloud feedbacks. The CASCCAD dataset (Cesana, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2667637) is available on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/ (last access: 5 November 2019) and on the zenodo website at https://zenodo.org/record/2667637 (last access: 5 November 2019).

Cesana, Gregory V.↗

Hybrid Parameter Search and Dynamic Model Selection for Mixed-Variable Bayesian Optimization

Herein this article presents a new type of hybrid model for Bayesian optimization (BO) adept at managing mixed variables, encompassing both quantitative (continuous and integer) and qualitative (categorical) types. Our proposed new hybrid models (named hybridM) merge the Monte Carlo Tree Search structure (MCTS) for categorical variables with Gaussian Processes (GP) for continuous ones. hybridM leverages the upper confidence bound tree search (UCTS) for MCTS strategy, showcasing the tree architecture’s integration into Bayesian optimization. Our innovations, including dynamic online kernel selection in the surrogate modeling phase and a unique UCTS search strategy, position our hybrid models as an advancement in mixed-variable surrogate models. Numerical experiments underscore the superiority of hybrid models, highlighting their potential in Bayesian optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coaction and double-copy properties of configuration-space integrals at genus zero

We investigate configuration-space integrals over punctured Riemann spheres from the viewpoint of the motivic Galois coaction and double-copy structures generalizing the Kawai-Lewellen-Tye (KLT) relations in string theory. For this purpose, explicit bases of twisted cycles and cocycles are worked out whose orthonormality simplifies the coaction. We present methods to efficiently perform and organize the expansions of configuration-space integrals in the inverse string tension α' or the dimensional-regularization parameter ϵ of Feynman integrals. Generating-function techniques open up a new perspective on the coaction of multiple polylogarithms in any number of variables and analytic continuations in the unintegrated punctures. We present a compact recursion for a generalized KLT kernel and discuss its origin from intersection numbers of Stasheff polytopes and its implications for correlation functions of two-dimensional conformal field theories. We find a non-trivial example of correlation functions in (p, 2) minimal models, which can be normalized to become uniformly transcendental in the p → ∞ limit.

Conformal Field Theory↗

Observation of spatter-induced stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser powder bed fusion using in situ process monitoring

Material produced via additive manufacturing (AM) continues to exhibit variable mechanical properties despite apparent optimization of processing parameters, inhibiting qualification efforts and limiting use in critical applications. Stochastic lack-of-fusion flaws may help explain this variability, but the origin of these seemingly random defects has to this point remained unclear. In this work, we show that spatter particles, material ejected from the laser melt pool, are directly responsible for generating stochastic lack-of-fusion in laser-based powder bed fusion components through the application of spatial statistics. Herein a statistically significant, causal relationship between spatter particles and stochastic lack-of-fusion is established, and the spatial and morphological relationships between spatter and internal flaws are investigated. The occurrence of spatter-induced lack-of-fusion in relation to the inert gas flow and laser trajectory direction is also investigated, and recommendations for mitigating the occurrence of spatter are evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-driven optimization of mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower integrated planning and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

The coordination of interconnected elements across the different layers of the supply chain is essential for all industrial processes and the key to optimal decision-making. Yet, the modeling and optimization of such interdependent systems are still burdensome. Here we address the simultaneous modeling and optimization of medium-term planning and short-term scheduling problems under demand uncertainty using mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower programming and data-driven optimization. Bi-level multi-follower programs model the natural hierarchy between different layers of supply chain management holistically, while scenario analysis and data-driven optimization allow us to retrieve the guaranteed feasible solutions of the integrated formulation under various demand considerations. We address the data-driven optimization of this challenging class of problems using the DOMINO framework, which was initially developed to solve single-leader single-follower bi-level optimization problems to guaranteed feasibility. This framework is extended to solve single-leader multi-follower stochastic formulations and its performance is characterized by well-known single and multi-product process scheduling case studies. Through our data-driven algorithmic approach, we present guaranteed feasible solutions to linear and nonlinear mixed-integer bi-level formulations of simultaneous planning and scheduling problems and further characterize the effects of the scheduling level complexity on the solution performance, which spans over several hundred continuous and binary variables, and thousands of constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Mixture Model Framework for Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis Using Heterogeneous Clinical and Outcome Data

Prognoses of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) outcomes are neither easily nor accurately determined from clinical indicators. This is due in part to the heterogeneity of damage inflicted to the brain, ultimately resulting in diverse and complex outcomes. Using a data-driven approach on many distinct data elements may be necessary to describe this large set of outcomes and thereby robustly depict the nuanced differences among TBI patients’ recovery. In this work, we develop a method for modeling large heterogeneous data types relevant to TBI. Our approach is geared toward the probabilistic representation of mixed continuous and discrete variables with missing values. The model is trained on a dataset encompassing a variety of data types, including demographics, blood-based biomarkers, and imaging findings. In addition, it includes a set of clinical outcome assessments at 3, 6, and 12 months post-injury. The model is used to stratify patients into distinct groups in an unsupervised learning setting. We use the model to infer outcomes using input data, and show that the collection of input data reduces uncertainty of outcomes over a baseline approach. In addition, we quantify the performance of a likelihood scoring technique that can be used to self-evaluate the extrapolation risk of prognosis on unseen patients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Framework for Evaluating the Resilience Contribution of Solar PV and Battery Storage on the Grid

Motivated by decreased cost and climate change concerns, penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage has been continually increasing. The variability in solar generation assets has led to many challenges for utilities and researchers. Therefore, there is increasing interest in the area of resilience of the grid and contribution from its assets. This paper describes a proposed framework for evaluating the resilience contribution of solar generation and battery storage. The metric provides a quantifiable adaptive capacity measure with uncertainty for the contribution assets proved to the bulk grid. A case study using long and short-term solar generation, with and without battery storage, demonstrates the framework and provides useful insight to the resilience solar and battery storage assets contribute.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Discovery of Probabilistic Dirichlet-to-Neumann Maps on Graphs

Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps enable the coupling of multiphysics simulations across computational subdomains by ensuring continuity of state variables and fluxes at artificial interfaces. We present a novel method for learning Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes, specifically for problems where the data obey a conservation law arising from an underlying partial differential equation. Our approach combines discrete exterior calculus and nonlinear optimal recovery to infer relationships between vertex and edge values. This framework yields data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification across the entire graph, even when observations are limited to a subset of vertices and edges. By minimizing the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm while penalizing kernel complexity through maximum likelihood estimation, our method ensures that the resulting surrogate strictly enforces conservation laws without overfitting. We demonstrate our method on two representative applications: subsurface flow in fracture networks and arterial blood flow. Finally, the results demonstrate that the method maintains high accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates even under severe data scarcity, highlighting its potential for scientific applications where limited data and reliable uncertainty quantification are critical.

Dirichlet-to-Neumann map↗

Opportunities for Industry to Provide Flexibility While Increasing Profitability

Supply and demand flexibility will both be needed to ensure the electricity system functions properly as the share from variable renewable generation continues to grow. Industrial manufacturing currently consumes about a third of primary energy worldwide, and electricity is projected to supply an increasing share of this demand as the global economy decarbonizes. Therefore, the ability for industry to flex demand poses an enticing opportunity to enable grid flexibility. However, large capital outlays prevent industry from voluntarily altering demand. Here we show that as battery costs continue to fall, industry will soon be able to profitably alter demand in accordance with electricity price variations. Focusing on two established industries– chlor-alkali and electric arc furnaces – and two industries with large future potential – methane pyrolysis and atmospheric CO 2 capture, we use a linear program (LP) optimization to assess the technoeconomic feasibility of flexible industrial demand across both historical and future-looking wholesale day-ahead marginal prices for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find positive net present values (NPV) from $\$$400K to $\$$50M using projected 2050 battery prices for industrial purchase of behind-the-meter batteries, using only arbitrage as a source of value. These results indicate that, with projected battery prices, profit-seeking industrial players could voluntarily play a future role in stabilizing a high-renewables grid where electricity prices act as accurate signals of grid needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mudstone Baffles and Barriers in Lower Cretaceous Strata at a Proposed CO 2 Storage Hub in Kemper County, Mississippi, United States

The Cretaceous and Tertiary deposits in Mississippi, Alabama, and the adjacent continental shelf constitute a widespread succession of sandstone, mudstone, and carbonate that has proven to be an important target for geologic CO 2 storage in the onshore Gulf of Mexico basin. Integrated analysis of stratigraphy, sedimentology, and reservoir properties based on cores and geophysical well logs indicates that the Paluxy Formation and Washita- Fredericksburg interval present gigatonne-class storage opportunities. The distribution, geometry, and composition of the area is a direct reflection of the original depositional environments, and understanding these factors is essential for understanding the geologic storage potential of the Paluxy Formation and Washita-Fredericksburg interval at the Kemper County energy facility in Mississippi. Geologic characterization of the Mississippi Embayment at the energy facility focused primarily on characterizing the confinement potential of the storage complex. Integration of core analyses and geophysical well logs has yielded a high-resolution stratigraphic analysis of storage reservoirs, baffles, barriers, and seals. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to characterize microfabric, pore types, and mineralogy within mudstone of the east-central Mississippi Embayment at the Kemper County energy facility. Mudstone beds in the Paluxy Formation and Washita-Fredericksburg interval have variable thickness and continuity. High water saturation in the Cretaceous mudstone units influences swelling smectite clay and mudrock permeability based on pulse decay analysis is 1–96 nD. These low permeability values indicate that the mudstone units are effective baffles, barriers, and confining intervals that make significant migration of injected CO 2 out of the storage complex unlikely. The numerous baffles and barriers within the target reservoir intervals, moreover, favor the retention of multiple CO 2 in plumes within the abundant stacked sandstone bodies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The harang discontinuity in auroral belt ionospheric currents

Observations are compared to the Harang discontinuity to illustrate the reality and form of the discontinuity near midnight. High latitude magnetic disturbances and auroral displays were not found to be completely identical on any two days. The typical diurnal behavior during the night hours between 60 and 70 deg magnetic latitude was illustrated, using two patterns. Convection, time variablity, and current continuity of the Harang discontinuity are considered.

Herpner, J. P.↗

The Harang discontinuity in auroral belt ionospheric currents.

Discussion of the nature of a discontinuity in the ionospheric current of the auroral belt whose existence was suggested by Harang in 1946. Convection characteristics, time variability, and current continuity in the auroral belt are considered in a context of observations and arguments supporting the reality of Harang's discontinuity.

Heppner, J. P.↗