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At least 361 records · Page 20

Potential Lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiments and Mission Scenarios

The extraction and use of resources on the Moon, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can potentially reduce the cost and risk of human lunar exploration while also increasing science achieved. By not having to bring all of the shielding and mission consumables from Earth and being able to make products on the Moon, missions may require less mass to accomplish the same objectives, carry more science equipment, go to more sites of exploration, and/or provide options to recover from failures not possible with delivery of spares and consumables from Earth alone. The concept of lunar ISRU has been considered and studied for decades, and scientists and engineers were theorizing and even testing concepts for how to extract oxygen from lunar soil even before the Apollo 11 mission to the Moon. There are four main areas where ISRU can significantly impact how human missions to the Moon will be performed: mission consumable production, civil engineering and construction, energy production, storage, and transfer, and manufacturing and repair. The area that has the greatest impact on mission mass, hardware design and selection, and mission architecture is mission consumable production, in particular, the ability to make propellants, life support consumables, and fuel cell reagents. Mission consumable production allows for refueling and reuse of spacecraft, increasing power production and storage, and increased capabilities and failure tolerance for crew life support. The other three areas allow for decreased mission risk due to radiation and plume damage, alternative power systems, and failure recover capabilities while also enabling infrastructure growth over Earth delivered assets. However, while lunar ISRU has significant potential for mass, cost, and risk reduction for human lunar missions, it has never been demonstrated before in space. To demonstrate that ISRU can meet mission needs and to increase confidence in incorporating ISRU capabilities into mission architectures, terrestrial laboratory and analog field testing along with robotic precursor missions are required. A stepwise approach with international collaboration is recommended. The first step is to understand the resources available through orbital and surface exploration missions. Resources of particular interest are hydrogen, hydroxyl, water, and other polar volatile resources recently measured by Chandrayaan, Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS). The second step is to demonstrate critical aspects of ISRU systems to prove ISRU is feasible under lunar environmental and resource conditions (ex. subscale oxygen extraction from regolith). The third step is to perform integrated missions with ISRU and other connected systems, such as power, consumable storage, surface mobility, and life support at a relevant mission scale to demonstrate ISRU capabilities as well as the critical interfaces with other exploration systems. If possible, the mission should demonstrate the use of ISRU products (ex. in a rocket engine or fuel cell). This dress rehearsal mission would be the final step before full implementation of ISRU into human missions, and may be performed during human lunar exploration activities. This stepwise approach is the most conservative approach, and may only be possible with international cooperation due to the limited number of robotic missions each nation/space agency can perform within their budget.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

Consumption of terrestrial organic matter in the rocky intertidal zone along the central Oregon coast

Abstract Terrestrial organic matter ( TOM ) constitutes an important source of energy in many aquatic environments. This is the first study to compare the consumption of terrestrial leaves ( Alnus rubra ) to high‐quality ( Nereocystis luetkeana ) and low‐quality ( Fucus gardneri ) sources of drift kelp and low‐quality seagrass ( Phyllospadix spp.) in pools of the rocky intertidal zone on Cape Arago, Oregon, USA . On average, 1.02 kg ash‐free dry mass ( AFDM ) per day of TOM was transported by small forested streams during fall leaf abscission to the rocky intertidal zone in small pocket bays. Leaves of A. rubra (red alder) varied in wrack from negligible (12 g AFDM /m 2 ) on some beaches to the primary source of detritus on others (256 g AFDM /m 2 ). Long‐term feeding experiments (months) showed that consumption rates of A. rubra in the spring (19.7% of the initial pack biomass) and in the fall (52% of the initial pack biomass) were intermediate between those of N. luetkeana (fully consumed) and Phyllospadix spp. (never >10% consumed of the initial pack biomass). Long‐term experiments also showed that conditioned fall‐shed leaves of A. rubra were consumed at a faster rate (52.3% of initial pack biomass) than spring‐shed leaves of A. rubra (16.8% of initial pack biomass). Short‐term feeding experiments again showed that consumption of A. rubra in the spring (18.6% of initial pack biomass over 3 d) and fall (16.7% over 7 d) was intermediate between N. luetkeana (57.3% consumed over 3 d in the spring and 60.7% over 7 d in the fall) and Phyllospadix spp. (<1% consumed in the spring). Except for Phyllospadix spp., consumption rates followed polyphenolic concentrations in that, N. luetkeana (418 mg/mL) > A. rubra (3415 mg/mL) > F. gardneri (8098 mg/mL). Phyllospadix spp. was rarely consumed despite a fairly low concentration of phenolics (800 mg/mL). In the temperate zone, leaves of A . rubra may constitute an important source of energy during the fall and winter when more nutritious marine resources dieback, such as single‐celled algae and kelp (e.g., N. luetkeana ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing The Impacts of the Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentives on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

This analysis represents the biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model. The credit value generated under this policy was calculated in a number of scenarios based on electricity use of each power train choice on a yearly basis over the 15 year vehicle lifetime, accounting for the average electric vehicle miles travelled and vehicle efficiency, competition for biogas-derived electricity among electric vehicles (EVs), the RIN equivalence value and the time value of money. The credit value calculation in each of these scenarios is offered upfront as a point of purchase incentive for EVs using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) vehicle choice model, which tracks sales, fleet size and energy use over time. The majority of the scenarios use a proposed RIN equivalence value, which increases the credit value as a way to explore the analysis space. Additional model runs show the relative impact of the equivalence value on EV deployment. The MA3T model output shows that a consumer incentive accelerates the deployment of EVs for all scenarios relative to the baseline (no policy) case. In the scenario modeled to represent the current biogas-to-electricity generation capacity (15 TWh/year) with a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, the policy leads to an additional 1.4 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and 3.5 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025 beyond the no-policy case of 1.3 million PHEVs and 2.1 million BEVs when the full value of the credit is passed on to the consumer. In 2030, this increases to 2.4 million PHEVs and 7.3 million BEVs beyond the baseline. This larger impact on BEVs relative to PHEVs is due in part to the larger credit that BEVs receive in the model based on the greater percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled by BEVs relative to PHEVs. In this scenario 2025 also represents the last year in which biogas-derived electricity is able to fully supply the transportation electricity demand in the model. After 2025, the credit value declines on a per vehicle basis. At the same time a larger fraction of the credit may shift towards biogas producers in order to incent additional biogas production. The expanded 41 TWh/year biogas availability scenarios represent an increase beyond today s generation capacity and allow greater eRIN generation. With a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, when all of the credit is directed towards reducing vehicle purchase prices, the 41 TWh/year biogas scenario results in 4.1 million additional PHEVs and 12.2 million additional BEVs on the road in 2030 beyond the baseline of 2.5 million PHEVs and 6.1 million BEVs. Under this expanded biogas capacity, biogas-derived electricity generation is able to fully supply electricity for a fleet of over 21 million EVs (15.6 million BEVs and 5.8 million PHEVs) on a yearly basis. In addition to assessing the full value credit scenarios described above, multiple scenarios were analyzed to determine the impact if only a fraction of the credit value was passed on to the consumer. In all of these cases, the EV deployment was scaled back as the fraction of the credit that was passed on to the consumer was reduced. These scenarios can be used to estimate the impact if the credit value is reduced in other ways as well, as demonstrated by the scenarios where the current (22.6 kWh/RIN) equivalence value was used. The EV deployment that results from an equivalence value of 22.6 kWh/RIN equivalence value is roughly equivalent to the EV deployment observed in the 25% case using the 5.24 kWh/RIN equivalence value. A higher equivalence value means that a smaller number of credits, and therefore value, is created for each kWh, and therefore the impact on EV deployment is reduced. This analysis shows several of the drivers that will impact eRIN generation and credit value, and tests the impact of an eRIN point of purchase incentive on EV deployment. This additional incentive can accelerate the deployment of EVs when it is used to reduce vehicle purchase prices. However, the ultimate impact of this policy, as modeled here, will be determined by future RIN prices, the extent to which eRIN credit value can be passed on to the consumer as a point of purchase incentive and the equivalence value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

What's on the menu? Examining native apex‐ and invasive meso‐predator diets to understand impacts on ecosystems

Abstract Understanding how carnivores impact ecological communities is essential for guiding effective management actions and conserving biodiversity. Quantifying predators' diets, including prey selectivity, allows for the assessment of the relative effects native and invasive predators may have on prey populations. In Australia, populations of a native, terrestrial apex predator, the dingo Canis dingo/C. familiaris , and introduced and invasive subordinate mesopredators, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and feral cat Felis catus , co‐occur, but there is limited understanding of their relative impacts on native and invasive prey in different ecosystems. To assess the possible effects of dingoes, foxes and cats on prey, we examined their diet and prey selectivity across a ~10,000 km 2 semi‐arid mallee ecosystem. Using macroscopic scat analysis, we identified strong dietary niche separation. Larger‐bodied dingoes primarily consumed large marsupial herbivores, whereas foxes and cats primarily consumed smaller prey, including introduced and native rodents and birds. Foxes had the broadest diet, and the greatest dietary overlap with cats ( = 0.81), compared with dingoes ( = 0.50) or between dingoes and cats ( = 0.36). Livestock were identified in 2% of dingo and 7% of fox scats. Cats and foxes consumed more than 15 times the volume of small native mammals compared with dingoes, including threatened species such as fat‐tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata . Cats and foxes also selectively consumed small mammals relative to their estimated availability and consumed fewer large mammals. In contrast, dingoes consumed fewer birds and more echidnas relative to their availability. Our results suggest limited intraguild competition within this semi‐arid ecosystem, as dingoes are primarily exerting top‐down pressure on large herbivores, whereas invasive mesopredators are disproportionately impacting smaller prey, including threatened native mammals. Practical implication . Our findings suggest that ongoing conservation management of dingoes, red foxes and feral cats must consider the variation in diets, impacts on prey and ecological roles of these different predator species, and avoid indiscriminate lethal control methods. Quantifying actual, rather than assumed, impacts of predators on threatened native species, large herbivores and livestock is essential to achieve effective and integrated ecosystem management.

Mason, Rachel T. [School of Life and Environmental↗

ULAMA: A Utilization-Aware Matching Approach for robust on-demand spatial service brokers

This article investigates an on-demand spatial service broker for suggesting service provider propositions and the corresponding time of service to mobile consumers while meeting the consumer’s maximum travel time and wait time constraints. The goal of the broker is to maximize the number of matched requests while also keeping the “eco-system” functioning and robust against variations in the supply–demand ratio by engaging as many service providers as possible and maintaining providers’ participation to ensure that providers do not drop out. This problem is important because of its many related societal applications in the on-demand and sharing economy (e.g., on-demand ride-hailing services, on-demand food delivery, etc.). Challenges of this problem include the need to satisfy many conflicting requirements of the broker, consumers and service providers and the high computational complexity since solving the problem for a number of available consumers at any time instant is NP-hard. Related work in spatial crowdsourcing and ridesharing has mainly focused on maximizing the number of matched requests and minimizing travel cost, but did not consider the importance of maintaining provider engagement and balancing provider utilization, which could become a priority when the available supply exceeds the demand. In this paper, we propose a Utilization-Aware Matching Approach (ULAMA) which employs novel provider-centric heuristics for balancing the utilization of providers, and a consumer-priority-based greedy matching algorithm that prioritizes consumers for maximizing the number of matched requests. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms related work by achieving the lowest variance in provider utilization while matching all available providers even when supply greatly exceeds demand. Our approach also achieved a larger number of matched requests, particularly when supply exceeds demand and also when both supply and demand are balanced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Will Advanced Public Charging Infrastructure Speed Up Electrification of Future Transportation?

This study focuses on evaluating impacts of advanced, urban public charging infrastructure on the battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in the U.S market. Under various infrastructure scenarios (e.g., current and developed conditions), we investigate the infrastructure impacts on the near-term BEV adoption using a consumer-choice based market simulation approach. Our results suggest that current public charging infrastructure has continuous and significant impacts on the near-term BEV adoption. Additional infrastructure investment could further stimulate the public acceptance of BEVs. We also find that the actual infrastructure impact may vary depending on the assumption of how charging deployment could affect consumers' access of chargers and consumers' daily available charging time. However, this impact variability could be reduced when infrastructure is getting mature.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Demand Response for Thermal Fairness in District Heating Networks

District Heating (DH) networks are complex thermal grids wherein a centrally heated fluid is circulated through a network of pipes and heat exchangers to meet the heating needs of residential and commercial buildings. Several factors can lead to inefficient and unfair energy distribution among consumers in these networks. These include varying levels of building insulation, distance of individual buildings from the central energy source, and thermal losses in network pipes. Moreover, shortage of energy at the central energy source and extreme weather conditions can exacerbate these issues, leading to differing levels of thermal comfort and customer disgruntlement in the long run. In this paper, we propose and study a demand response scheme that attempts to ensure thermal fairness among energy consumers in modern thermal grids. We develop optimization formulations based on thermodynamic models of DH networks, which determine optimal energy flow for individual buildings in order to achieve thermal fairness across the network. Our experimental results using physics based models for DH networks show that it is possible to achieve network level thermal fairness based social welfare objectives by controlling network parameters such as mass flow rates of water to the consumer premises and the supply water temperature, even when some network parameters like building thermal characteristics remain unknown.

Bhattacharya, Saptarshi↗

Water Temperature, Prey Concentration and Salmonid Density Influence Daily Growth of Wild Juvenile Salmonids in Tributaries of the Upper Salmon River, Idaho ( USA )

ABSTRACT Theory, experiments and field studies indicate that the somatic growth rate of freshwater consumers is shaped by the individual, additive and multiplicative effects of multiple factors, including consumer size and condition, temperature, prey resources and biotic interactions. While our understanding of how these factors affect wild populations of freshwater consumers is improving, the topic remains poorly studied, especially with respect to mobile species. Here, we report on an 8‐year, seven‐stream ( n = 49 stream‐year combinations) observational study examining the individual and interactive effects of invertebrate prey concentration (F, mg/m 3 ), mean daily water temperature (T, °C) and juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) density (D, fish/100 m 2 ) on summer daily growth rates (%/d) of mobile, anadromous, juvenile Chinook salmon (age‐0+, n = 382) and sub‐yearling (age‐0+, n = 61) and yearling (age‐1+) steelhead trout ( O. mykiss , n = 70) rearing in cold (mean daily summer: 12.1°C, range: 4.2°C–16.7°C) mountain tributaries of the Salmon River basin in central Idaho (USA). AIC c model selection indicated that daily juvenile salmonid growth positively correlated with water temperature, prey biomass concentration, local juvenile Chinook density and the interaction between water temperature and food but with species and age‐specific differences. Water temperature was a covariate in all top‐ranked models, with daily growth (%/day) rate increasing (0.05%–0.23%/d) linearly with mean daily summer water temperature. In addition to a direct positive relationship with daily growth rate, there was evidence that prey concentration positively interacted with water temperature to accelerate daily growth (F × T). The positive relationship between juvenile salmonid daily growth rate and juvenile Chinook density is difficult to explain and could result from confounding factors. The individual success observed in these streams may contribute to population‐level benefits for the focal consumers, as prey‐rich, warm summers may result in larger individuals with higher energy reserves at the end of the summer/autumn growing season, contributing to improved overwinter survival. Our results, taken in combination with evidence from models, experiments and observational studies, have climate change implications. Current and predicted increases in water temperature will necessitate higher rates of prey consumption by aquatic ectothermic consumers to offset accelerated metabolic demands. Thus, to improve the resilience of mobile freshwater consumers in a warming climate, we suggest that natural resource managers not only consider physical and chemical habitat conditions but also biotic conditions, including the spatiotemporal quantity and quality of prey resources.

Kiffney, Peter. M. [Fish Ecology, Northwest Fisher↗

Software defined grid energy storage

Today, consumer battery installations are isolated, physical devices. Virtual power plants (VPPs) allow consumer devices to aggregate for grid services, but they are are vertically integrated, vendor controlled systems (e.g., Tesla’s VPP). Consumer batteries are therefore unable to participate in energy markets or other grid services outside what their vendor provides. We describe a software system that provides software control of multiple, networked battery energy storage systems in the electric grid. The system introduces two new ideas that enable flexible and dependable management of energy storage. The first is a virtual battery, which can either partition a battery or aggregate multiple batteries. The second is a reservation-based API which allows asynchronous control of batteries to meet contractual guarantees in a safe and dependable manner. Virtual batteries and a reservation-based API address the unique challenges of achieving high and efficient utilization of energy storage systems, including heterogeneity of battery systems such as varying C-rates, participation in energy markets, utility bill management systems, community resource sharing, and reliability. Using a testbed comprised of sonnen Inc. storage units installed in several homes and a lab, we demonstrate that virtualized batteries can seamlessly replace physical batteries, flexibly manage energy storage resources, isolate multiple clients using a shared battery, and create new energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

U.S. Manufacturing Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis

The United States (U.S.) manufacturing sector uses significant amounts of energy to convert raw materials into usable products. The U.S. manufacturing sector is estimated to consume over one quarter of all U.S. energy use. According to manufacturing energy use statistics from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. manufacturing sector consumed 21.1 quadrillion Btu (quads) of fuel and feedstock energy [EIA 2009] in 2006. When the estimated electricity and steam losses outside the plant (offsite) are included in this total, the primary and feedstock energy consumed by U.S. manufacturing increases to 27.6 quads. Total U.S. energy consumption for all sectors in 2006 was 99.8 quads [EIA 2010a]. Of this total, the industrial sector consumed 32.5 quads, or 33%. Of this 33%, manufacturing consumed approximately 28%, while non-manufacturing sectors (including agriculture, mining, and construction) consumed the remaining 5% of industrial energy.

Brueske, Sabine↗

North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners Final Report

The U.S. DOE’s Office of EERE National Solar Energy Technology Program (SETP) calls for a “National Accreditation and Certification Program for Installation and Acceptance of Photovoltaic Systems.” A near-term goal listed in the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry’s Roadmap, 2000 - 2020 is to work to establish standards, codes, and certifications which are essential for consumer protection and acceptance as part of the goal of building toward a viable future PV industry. This program paves the way for a voluntary national certification program for PV system practitioners and installers, initiation of the first steps toward certification of hardware, and reinforcement of all five of the technical objectives in the Systems category of SETPs Multi-Year technical Plan. Through this project, NABCEP will direct the continued initiation of and sustained implementation and administration of the NABCEP Solar PV Installer Certification Program (hereafter the “Program”). The NABCEP Program is a national, voluntary program designed to provide certification for those PV installers who demonstrate the requisite skills, abilities and knowledge typically required to install and maintain PV systems. The core document upon which the Program was developed and upon which the national exam is based, is referred to as the (Program) Task Analysis. It is a thorough descriptive document containing specific psychomotor and cognitive tasks for the purposes of identifying the types of training/assessment methods that apply. Psychomotor skills require measuring, assembling, fastening and related activities. Cognitive skills require knowledge processing, decision-making and computations. NABCEP effectively evaluates an applicant’s psychomotor skills through review of a candidate’s PV installations and hands-on training received. NABCEP evaluates the candidate’s cognitive skills through administration of its national Program exam. By first qualifying for and then obtaining the required passing score, NABCEP certificants receive an accreditation that upholds NABCEP’s standards of quality, compliance to applicable codes and safety in PV installation. The objectives of DOE’s National Solar Energy Technology Program (SETP) are intrinsic to NABCEP. As detailed in the PV Roadmap, the lifespan of a PV system is a function of reliability and value. PV system reliability is directly dependent upon the quality of components and, design, installation and maintenance of a system. The latter three are all core components of the NABCEP Task Analysis - accordingly NABCEP certified installers will be instrumental in improving reliability of systems through safe, code and manufacturer-compliant installation and necessary post-installation maintenance of PV systems. This will have the effect of ensuring and increasing the performance of installed systems and, as consumers realize the benefits of well-installed and maintained systems, increased demand will follow and manufacturers will respond - supporting further growth in the PV industry. Furthermore, as more NABCEP certified installers perform these installations and maintenance competently, additional installations (whole system re-installations) and unnecessary repairs can be avoided. This will drive down system costs. This combined with creation/enhancement of the DE-FG36-04GO14348/005 NABCEP Central Data Base of Installers – providing consumers with installation/maintenance service options will further reduce system costs and help meet the overall goal of reducing life cycle costs. As consumers receive more value from PV systems which are providing longer, trouble free, renewable energy, they will join the ranks of professionals and enthusiasts calling for reduced technological barriers to installation (particularly for grid-tied systems). States and utilities will react to pressure and begin easing onerous net-metering and other technological restrictions. The benefits of NABCEP’s Program will be evident to consumers, manufacturers, distributors, state energy officials and solar academic institutions. Consumers benefit through increased system performance and reduced costs. Manufacturers of PV and balance of system components as well as distributors support and benefit from NABCEP because of assurances that systems are installed in accordance to code (i.e., NEC) and their specifications, resulting in longer life. Collaborators including state energy officials (i.e., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) benefit by knowing that rebate funds are spent on systems whose benefits will far exceed system costs. Program Objectives The improvements and advantages offered by a national voluntary certification program can only expand the horizons for photovoltaic applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Vision for Co-optimized T&D System Interaction with Renewables and Demand Response

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, effi- cient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. The use of demand response to counterbalance the intermittency of re- newable generation brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distri- bution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. In this paper, a vision for co- optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system is described. In this frame- work, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the microgrid can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Preliminary work explores price mechanisms to manage the microgrid and its interactions with the transmission system. Wholesale market operations are addressed through the devel- opment of scalable stochastic optimization methods that provide the ability to co-optimize interactions between the transmission and distribution systems. Modeling challenges of the co-optimization are addressed via solution methods for large-scale stochastic op- timization, including decomposition and stochastic dual dynamic programming.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Upcycling of Mixed Aluminum Alloy Shredder Scrap using Shear Processing

Conservation of critical materials is an increasing area of focus in the Unites States. In 2023, aluminum was added to the US Department of Energy Final Critical Materials List which has spurred public and private research into sustainable management of these resources. Additionally, efficiency in manufacturing and conservation of natural resources are growing concerns with targets to lower global carbon emissions, as primary aluminum alloy production is energy intensive, requiring 14 MWh of electricity plus 0.4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of Al. Due to these factors, is essential that more sustainable manufacturing methods for aluminum alloys are developed going forward. To this end, much research is ongoing on the topic of more efficient utilization and recovery. However, most of this research still requires primary aluminum in the production process. Here, it will be attempted to bypass the use of primary aluminum and produce useful material recycled from 100% post-consumer scrap. Even considering recent developments in recycling of Al scrap, there is still a large amount of post-consumer scrap that is underutilized due to high impurity content, and that amount will increase significantly as more and more aluminum alloys are utilized in vehicles. This “scrap wave” is expected to cover 80% of the demand for automotive aluminum alloys by 2050 . A challenge to be addressed before the coming scrap wave can be fully utilized is that the tolerance of manufacturing techniques to impurities or off-spec alloy compositions must be increased. Particularly, in 5000-and 6000-series alloys (the most common wrought alloys in durable products), excess iron, copper, and silicon create brittle intermetallics during casting that remain in the extruded microstructure which limit the formability, ductility, and corrosion resistance of the alloy. Concerningly, many of the highest-volume post-consumer aluminum scrap streams such as automotive shredder scrap contain a mix of alloys including both wrought and cast alloys. Their compositions can vary widely depending on geography and the time of year. Because they are mixed, they often contain high content of multiple alloying elements such as Si and Cu in higher concentrations than are found in typical wrought alloys. They may also be contaminated with non-Al alloys from fasteners that get mixed in and often have high content of unwanted elements such as Fe. As a method for utilizing these underused scrap streams that are high in tramp elements, an emerging extrusion technology is being developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that aims to upcycle 100% post-consumer aluminum scrap directly into extruded components without the addition of primary aluminum . This new technology, called Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE), is enabling a shift away from today’s recycling paradigm by reaching deeper into lower-value scrap streams, using shredder scrap as the extrusion billet material. Sometimes referred to as Twitch or Tweak, these scrap streams result from shredding and sorting of automobiles, building materials, appliances, and consumer goods. ShAPE combines the linear axis of conventional extrusion with a rotating extrusion die. This rotating die applies large strain to the material during extrusion, which breaks up large impurity-containing intermetallic particles, reducing their deleterious effects. This has been demonstrated for 6063 machining scrap spiked with excess Fe, and Twitch scrap high in Fe, Si and Cu where strength and ductility were retained for both feedstock compositions. Additionally, the extreme plastic deformation during ShAPE enables extrusion of billets with high Si that are too brittle for processing by conventional extrusion. By using 100% post-consumer shedder scrap as feedstock, ShAPE has the potential to slash embodied energy and carbon in extruded components by >80% compared to conventional extrusion of primary aluminum alloys.

Milligan, Brian K.↗

An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.↗

ECLSS Does Not Exist in a Vacuum: Integrated Analysis is Necessary to Inform System Architecture Decisions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures and propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS lifecycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Systems Analysis↗

Integrated Trajectory, Habitat, and Logistics Analysis and Trade Study for Human Mars Missions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures and propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS life cycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Mars↗

Integrated Trajectory, Habitat, and Logistics Analysis and Trade Study for Human Mars Missions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures, including propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS life cycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on Earth departure mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Mars↗

Environmental impact assessment of online advertising

Highlights: • A practical framework for assessing the environmental impact of any Internet service • Online advertising consumed between 20.38 to 282.75 TWh of energy and 11.53 – 159.93 million tons of CO{sub 2}e was emitted to produce the electricity consumed. • Invalid traffic associated with online advertising resulted in 2.65 – 36.78 million tons of CO{sub 2}e emissions. • The energy burden of online advertising is considerable and urgently requires attention from researchers and industries. - Abstract: There are no commonly agreed ways to assess the total energy consumption of the Internet. Estimating the Internet's energy footprint is challenging because of the interconnectedness associated with even seemingly simple aspects of energy consumption. The first contribution of this paper is a common modular and layered framework, which allows researchers to assess both energy consumption and CO{sub 2}e emissions of any Internet service. The framework allows assessing the energy consumption depending on the research scope and specific system boundaries. Further, the proposed framework allows researchers without domain expertise to make such an assessment by using intermediate results as data sources, while analyzing the related uncertainties. The second contribution is an estimate of the energy consumption and CO{sub 2}e emissions of online advertising by utilizing our proposed framework. The third contribution is an assessment of the energy consumption of invalid traffic associated with online advertising. The second and third contributions are used to validate the first. The online advertising ecosystem resides in the core of the Internet, and it is the sole source of funding for many online services. Therefore, it is an essential factor in the analysis of the Internet's energy footprint. As a result, in 2016, online advertising consumed 20–282 TWh of energy. In the same year, the total infrastructure consumption ranged from 791 to 1334 TWh. With extrapolated 2016 input factor values without uncertainties, online advertising consumed 106 TWh of energy and the infrastructure 1059 TWh. With the emission factor of 0.5656 kg CO{sub 2}e/kWh, we calculated the carbon emissions of online advertising, and found it produces 60 Mt CO{sub 2}e (between 12 and 159 Mt of CO{sub 2}e when considering uncertainty). The share of fraudulent online advertising traffic was 13.87 Mt of CO{sub 2}e emissions (between 2.65 and 36.78 Mt of CO{sub 2}e when considering uncertainty). The global impact of online advertising is multidimensional. Online advertising affects the environment by consuming significant amounts of energy, leading to the production CO{sub 2}e emissions. Hundreds of billions of ad dollars are exchanged yearly, placing online advertising in a significant role economically. It has become an important and acknowledged component of the online-bound society, largely due to its integration with the Internet and the amount of revenue generated through it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗