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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.

Garrott, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2018

Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission POS

In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. To accommodate this with regards to Navigation, the SLS utilizes an internally redundant Inertial Navigation System (INS) with built-in capability to detect, isolate, and recover from first failure conditions and still maintain adherence to performance requirements. The unit utilizes multiple hardware- and software-level techniques to enable detection, isolation, and recovery from these events in terms of its built-in Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) algorithms. Successful operation is defined in terms of sufficient navigation accuracy at insertion while operating under worst case single sensor outages (gyroscope and accelerometer faults at launch). In addition to first fault detection and recovery, the SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the INS to detect a second fault, tracking any unacceptable uncertainty in knowledge of the vehicle's state. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error and sensor faults can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environments and outside of its performance envelope causing loss of mission, or worse, loss of crew. The criteria for operation under second faults allows for a larger set of achievable missions in terms of potential fault conditions, due to the INS operating at the edge of its capability. As this performance is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design space. Due to the implications of the vehicle response to abort conditions (such as a potentially failed INS), it is important to consider a wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both magnitude and time. As such, the Navigation team is taking advantage of the INS's capability to schedule and change fault detection thresholds in flight. These values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success, and reducing the probability of false positives (defined as when the INS would report a second fault condition resulting in loss of mission, but the vehicle would still meet insertion requirements within system-level margins). This paper will describe an optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events as a function of potential fault magnitude and time of fault over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach, and performance assessment of the results will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this process to second fault detection to maximize mission probability of success.

Anzalone, Evan↗
NASA NTRS1971

Soot oxidation rates in gas turbine engines

A basis is proposed for extrapolating soot oxidation rate measurements obtained in laboratory flames to the more extreme operating conditions of gas turbine combustion chambers. The proposal is based on the observation that, within probable experimental uncertainty, the limited soot oxidation measurements correlate with the more extensive measurements of the surface oxidation rates of macroscopic samples of pyrographite. The soot oxidation rates thus determined for the conditions of a typical gas turbine combustion chamber are considerably lower than estimates which were based on simple extrapolations of the flame data.

Radcliffe, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Postural Recovery Following Short and Long Duration Spaceflights

INTRODUCTION: Post-flight postural ataxia reflects adaptive changes to vestibulo-spinal reflexes and control strategies adopted for movement in weightlessness. Quantitative measures obtained during computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) from US and Russian programs provide insight into the effect of spaceflight duration in terms of both the initial decrements and recovery of postural stability. METHODS: CDP was obtained on 117 crewmembers following Shuttle flights lasting 4-17 days, and on 64 crewmembers following long-duration missions lasting 48-380 days. Although the number and timing of sessions varied, the goal was to characterize postural recovery pooling similar measures from different research and flight medicine programs. This report focuses on eyes closed, head erect conditions with either a fixed or sway-referenced base of support. A smaller subset of subjects repeated the sway-referenced condition while making pitch head movements (+/- 20deg at 0.33Hz). Equilibrium scores were derived from peak-to-peak anterior-posterior sway. Fall probability was modeled using Bayesian statistical methods to estimate parameters of a logit function. RESULTS: The standard Romberg condition was the least sensitive. Longer duration flights led to larger decrements in stability with sway-reference support during the first 1-2 days, although the timecourse of recovery was similar across flight duration with head erect. Head movements led to increased incidence of falls during the first week, with a significantly longer recovery following long duration flights. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic assessment of postural instability, and differences in the timecourse of postural recovery between short and long flight durations, are more pronounced during unstable support conditions requiring active head movements.

Wood, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Atmospheric turbulence review of space shuttle launches

Research and analysis on the identification of turbulent regions from the surface to 16 km during Space Shuttle launches are discussed. It was demonstrated that the results from the FPS-16 radar/jimsphere balloon system in measuring winds can indeed indicate the presence or conditions ripe for turbulence in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. It was further demonstrated that atmospheric data obtained during the shuttle launches by the rawinsonde in conjunction with the jimsphere provides the necessary meteorological data to compute aerodynamic parameters to identify turbulence, such as Reynolds number drag coefficient, turbulent stresses, total energy, stability parameter, vertical gradient of kinetic energy, Richardson number, and the turbulence probability index. Enhanced temperature lapse rates and inversion rates, strong vector wind shears, and large changes in wind direction identify the occurrence of turbulence at the troposphere. When any two of the above conditions occur simultaneously, a significant probability of turbulence can occur.

Susko, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2001

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analysis of the Space Shuttle Orbiter skin panels under simulated hydrodynamic loads

The Space Shuttle orbiter skin panels were analyzed under pressure loads simulating hydrodynamic loads to determine their capability to sustain a potential ditching and to determine pressures that typically would produce failures. Two Dynamic Crash Analysis of Structures (DYCAST) finite element models were used. One model was used to represent skin panels (bays) in the center body, while a second model was used to analyze a fuselage bay in the wing region of the orbiter. From an assessment of the DYCAST nonlinear computer results, it is concluded that the probability is extremely high that most, if not all, of the lower skin panels would rupture under ditching conditions. Extremely high pressure loads which are produced under hydrodynamic planning conditions far exceed the very low predicted failure pressures for the skin panels. Consequently, a ditching of the orbiter is not considered to have a high probability of success and should not be considered a means of emergency landing unless no other option exists.

Carden, Huey D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

K-line X-ray fluorescence from highly charged iron ions under dense astrophysical plasma conditions

In the present work, we report an investigation of plasma environment effects on the atomic parameters associated with the K-vacancy states in highly charged iron ions within the astrophysical context of accretion disks around black holes. More particularly, the sensitivity of K-line X-ray fluorescence parameters (wavelengths, radiative transition probabilities, and Auger rates) in Fe XVII–Fe XXV ions has been estimated for plasma conditions characterized by an electron temperature ranging from 105 to 107K and an electron density ranging from 1018 to1022 cm−3. In order to do this, relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock atomic structure calculations have been carried out by considering a time averaged Debye-Hückel potential for both the electron–nucleus and electron–electron interactions.

Jérôme Deprince↗
NASA NTRS2011

Tracking Object Existence From an Autonomous Patrol Vehicle

An autonomous vehicle patrols a large region, during which an algorithm receives measurements of detected potential objects within its sensor range. The goal of the algorithm is to track all objects in the region over time. This problem differs from traditional multi-target tracking scenarios because the region of interest is much larger than the sensor range and relies on the movement of the sensor through this region for coverage. The goal is to know whether anything has changed between visits to the same location. In particular, two kinds of alert conditions must be detected: (1) a previously detected object has disappeared and (2) a new object has appeared in a location already checked. For the time an object is within sensor range, the object can be assumed to remain stationary, changing position only between visits. The problem is difficult because the upstream object detection processing is likely to make many errors, resulting in heavy clutter (false positives) and missed detections (false negatives), and because only noisy, bearings-only measurements are available. This work has three main goals: (1) Associate incoming measurements with known objects or mark them as new objects or false positives, as appropriate. For this, a multiple hypothesis tracker was adapted to this scenario. (2) Localize the objects using multiple bearings-only measurements to provide estimates of global position (e.g., latitude and longitude). A nonlinear Kalman filter extension provides these 2D position estimates using the 1D measurements. (3) Calculate the probability that a suspected object truly exists (in the estimated position), and determine whether alert conditions have been triggered (for new objects or disappeared objects). The concept of a probability of existence was created, and a new Bayesian method for updating this probability at each time step was developed. A probabilistic multiple hypothesis approach is chosen because of its superiority in handling the uncertainty arising from errors in sensors and upstream processes. However, traditional target tracking methods typically assume a stationary detection volume of interest, whereas in this case, one must make adjustments for being able to see only a small portion of the region of interest and understand when an alert situation has occurred. To track object existence inside and outside the vehicle's sensor range, a probability of existence was defined for each hypothesized object, and this value was updated at every time step in a Bayesian manner based on expected characteristics of the sensor and object and whether that object has been detected in the most recent time step. Then, this value feeds into a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to determine the status of the object (suspected, confirmed, or deleted). Alerts are sent upon selected status transitions. Additionally, in order to track objects that move in and out of sensor range and update the probability of existence appropriately a variable probability detection has been defined and the hypothesis probability equations have been re-derived to accommodate this change. Unsupervised object tracking is a pervasive issue in automated perception systems. This work could apply to any mobile platform (ground vehicle, sea vessel, air vehicle, or orbiter) that intermittently revisits regions of interest and needs to determine whether anything interesting has changed.

Wolf, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1970

Remote sensing of ocean color from aircraft

Over 3000 ocean spectra of sunlight backscattered from the upper layers of the sea have been obtained at flight altitudes to 10,000 feet together with detailed ground truth. These spectra are from stations which include a wide range of water masses differing as to biological and physical condition. This data bank and the analysis already performed demonstrates the probable feasibility of using ocean color as a parameter to locate areas of special significance to physical oceanographers and marine biologists from aircraft and satellites.

Clarke, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Biological experiments - The Viking Mars Lander.

From the biological point of view, the Viking 1975 mission might be regarded as a test of the Oparin-Haldane hypothesis concerning the chemical evolution of living systems. Mars is a planet whose early history was probably similar to that of the earth and whose present environmental conditions may be compatible with the maintenance of living organisms. Thus, the biological experiments aboard the Viking I spacecraft are primarily concerned with the question of whether chemical evolution on Mars took place, and, if so, whether the process reached a level of complexity characteristic of replicating systems.

Klein, H. P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Variations in density and chemical composition at 120 km from chemical and dynamical processes.

Atmospheric parameters show both systematic and random patterns of behavior at 120 km altitude. Variations in density, temperature, pressure, and especially atomic oxygen concentration are important. The variations are particularly significant because constant boundary conditions at this altitude have commonly been assumed in atmospheric model making. It is surprising how well the assumption of constant boundary conditions has served over the past decade. However, their use has probably introduced erroneous concepts into the field of atmospheric structure, or at least held off the recognition and introduction of important new concepts. The variations at 120 km are caused by changes in energy input into the upper atmosphere, including internal gravity waves and tidal energy from below, and changes in the transport processes within the atmosphere.

Johnson, F. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A study to determine the applicability of noise abatement approach procedures to McDonnell Douglas Aircraft

Analyses of McDonnell Douglas DC-8, DC-9, and DC-10 jet transports were conducted to investigate the applicability of two segment approach noise abatement procedures to these airplanes. All models had the required glide slope capability at the certified landing flap settings. The DC-8 models would probably be limited to an upper segment glide slope of 5.5 degrees and would probably not be suitable for the two segment procedure in icing conditions. The DC-8 would not be compatible with this procedure at a reduced landing flap setting. The feasibility of installing a two segment approach system in the Douglas-built fleet of commercial jet transports from a hardware viewpoint is discussed. The candidate system consists of a two segment computer plus the necessary peripheral equipment interfaced with the existing autopilot and associated avionics. The required modifications and additions to existing equipment are described and the attendant costs estimated. Potential problems which may be encountered are also discussed.

Painter, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Investigation of metal hydride materials as hydrogen reservoirs for metal-hydrogen batteries

The performance and suitability of various metal hydride materials were examined for use as possible hydrogen storage reservoirs for secondary metal-hydrogen batteries. Lanthanum pentanickel hydride appears as a probable candidate in terms of stable hydrogen supply under feasible thermal conditions. A kinetic model describing the decomposition rate data of the hydride has been developed.

ONISCHAK↗
NASA NTRS1975

A chart of cosmic ray isotopes

A chart has been prepared that lists some of the properties relevant to cosmic ray studies of all the significant nuclides between lithium and nickel. On this chart there are shown all the possible decays that might be of interest in the unique conditions experienced by cosmic ray nuclei, various abundance figures and the probable nucleosynthesis processes of origin.

Waddington, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On-orbit Systems Identification of Flexible Spacecraft Technol., 1984, Pt. 2 p 465-481

Future spacecraft include configurations which are too flexible to be adequately tested prior to flight and which will require on-orbit systems identification to ensure safe operation of the flight control system. The structural dynamics model will evolve and its accuracy will improve in stages as ground tests of full-scale components and replica-scale models are performed. State Space Modeling and Conditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation methodology can provide the formal probability-based framework for the process of upgrading a model as additional test results are obtained. Although the number of unknown parameters can be reduced by the use of canonical forms for the stability matrix, the number of unknown model parameters quickly becomes unmanageable unless advantage is taken of the relationship of a much fewer number of global model parameters. Distributed parameter systems or partial differential equation models are one way to take advantage of such global parameters to reduce the number of unknown model parameters.

Taylor, L.↗