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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Historical and Future Climate Change

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. The QBO can be seen in stratospheric zonal wind, temperature, and composition, but it also has a number of teleconnections—including to the polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Thus, its future trends will have a signature on the surface. Recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that a weakening of the QBO amplitude is very likely, but changes to QBO period and stability remain unclear, due in part to its highly parameterized nature. We investigate these aspects using multiple configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). As a high-top model with gravity wave drag partly sourced from (parameterized) convection, Model E2.2 includes key pathways for climate forcings to influence the QBO. Overall, both the period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO2, with convection feedbacks critical for the period response, and ozone feedbacks enhancing the amplitude response. We use these results to interpret QBO trends in the historical and SSP integrations. Lastly, we examine the effect of volcanic eruptions on the QBO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relationships between summertime surface albedo and melt pond fraction in the central Arctic Ocean: The aggregate scale of albedo obtained on the MOSAiC floe

As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), the HELiX uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during summer 2020. Albedo measurements were obtained with stabilized pyranometers, and melt pond fraction was calculated from orthomosaic imagery from a surface-imaging multispectral camera. This study analyzed HELiX flight data to provide insights on the temporal and spatial evolution of albedo and melt pond fraction of the MOSAiC floe during the melt season as it drifted south through Fram Strait. The surface albedo distributions showed peak values changing from high albedo (0.55–0.6) to lower values (0.3) as the season advanced. Inspired by methods developed for satellite data, an algorithm was established to retrieve melt pond fraction from the orthomosaic images. We demonstrate that the near-surface observations of melt pond fraction were highly dependent on sample area, offering insight into the influence of subgrid scale features and spatial heterogeneity in satellite observations. Vertical observations conducted with the HELiX were used to quantify the influence of melt pond scales on observed surface albedo as a function of sensor footprint. These scaling results were used to link surface-based measurements collected during MOSAiC to broader-scale satellite data to investigate the influence of surface features on observed albedo. Albedo values blend underlying features within the sensor footprint, as determined by the melt pond size and concentration. This study framed the downscaling (upscaling) problem related to the airborne (surface) observations of surface albedo across a variety of spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Participation in the Mars Data Analysis Program: Analysis of cloud forms in Viking and Mariner 9 images

The first systematic account of the climate of Mars, based upon observations was produced. Cloud data were used to determine spatially and temporally varying near-surface wind direction, relative wind speed, static stability, and humidity conditions on a global scale. Existing models of meteorological processes were critically reexamined in light of the data, and more stringent constraints were set on global processes. Several discoveries were made, including the large extent and seasonal variability of the Mars equatorial Hadley cell, the failure of high latitude winds to reverse direction in early northern spring, the change in meridional wind component in southern midautum, and the almost constant cloud cover in the northern hemisphere, during spring and summer primarily by condensate clouds and in fall and winter by condensates and dust. The implications of these observations are discussed.

Gierasch, P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-cryogenic direct air capture using adsorbents

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 is a key component in the portfolio of negative emissions technologies for mitigating global warming. However, even with the most potent amine sorbents, large-scale DAC deployment remains limited by high energy and capital costs. Recently, adsorbents relying on weak interactions with CO 2 have emerged as a potential alternative, thanks to their rapid adsorption kinetics and superior long-term stability, particularly under sub-ambient conditions (∼253 K). Despite these advantages, their use is hindered by the need for a water-removal process, location-specific constraints, and insufficient working capacity even in cold climates. In this study, we hypothesized that further reducing the adsorption temperature to a near-cryogenic range (160–220 K) could enable cost-effective DAC by utilizing the full potential of physisorbents. We primarily consider integrating DAC with a relatively untapped source of cold energy—liquified natural gas (LNG) regasification—to perform near-cryogenic DAC. From large-scale molecular simulations, Zeolite 13X and CALF-20 were identified as promising candidates. These materials were subsequently examined through experiments, including breakthrough analyses at 195 K. Their high CO 2 sorption capacity (4.5–5.5 mmol g −1 ), combined with a low desorption enthalpy and robust long-term stability, led to a threefold reduction in the levelized cost of capture (down to 68.2 USD per tonne CO 2 ). Estimates of the global LNG regasification resource suggest that LNG–DAC coupling could potentially enable the capture of 103–142 megatonnes of CO 2 annually as of 2050.

Kim, Seo-Yul [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗
NASA NTRS1992

Evaluation of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) shortwave channel's stability using in-flight calibration sources

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiometers were designed to make absolute measurements of the incoming solar, earth-reflected solar, and earth-emitted fluxes for investigations of the earth's climate system. Thermistor bolometers were the sensors used for the ERBE scanning radiometric package. Each thermistor bolometer package consisted of three narrow field of view broadband radiometric channels measuring shortwave, longwave, and total (0.2 micron to 50 microns) radiation. The in-flight calibration facilities include Mirror Attenuator Mosaics, shortwave internal calibration source, and internal blackbody sources to monitor the long-term responsivity of the radiometers. This paper describes the in-flight calibration facilities, the calibration data reduction techniques, and the results from the in-flight shortwave channel calibrations. The results indicate that the ERBE shortwave detectors were stable to within +/- 1 percent for up to five years of flight operation.

Gibson, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Mercury-T: A New Code to Study Tidally Evolving Multi-Planet Systems. Applications to Kepler-62

A large proportion of observed planetary systems contain several planets in a compact orbital configuration, and often harbor at least one close-in object. These systems are then most likely tidally evolving. We investigate how the effects of planet-planet interactions influence the tidal evolution of planets. We introduce for that purpose a new open-source addition to the Mercury N-body code, Mercury-T, which takes into account tides, general relativity and the effect of rotation-induced flattening in order to simulate the dynamical and tidal evolution of multi-planet systems. It uses a standard equilibrium tidal model, the constant time lag model. Besides, the evolution of the radius of several host bodies has been implemented (brown dwarfs, M-dwarfs of mass 0:1 M(sub ⨀), Sun-like stars, Jupiter). We validate the new code by comparing its output for one-planet systems to the secular equations results. We find that this code does respect the conservation of total angular momentum. We applied this new tool to the planetary system Kepler-62. We find that tides influence the stability of the system in some cases. We also show that while the four inner planets of the systems are likely to have slow rotation rates and small obliquities, the fifth planet could have a fast rotation rate and a high obliquity. This means that the two habitable zone planets of this system, Kepler-62e ad f are likely to have very different climate features, and this of course would influence their potential at hosting surface liquid water..

Dynamical evolution and stability↗
NASA NTRS2005

NASA's East and Southeast Asia Initiatives: BASE-ASIA and EAST-AIRE

Airborne dust from northern China influences air quality and regional climate in Asia during springtime. However, with the economic growth in China, increased emission of particulate air pollutants from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the earth's radiation balance, but also adversely affect human health year round. In addition, both of dust and aerosol pollutants can be transported swiftly across the Pacific affecting North America within a few days. Asian dust and pollutant aerosols can be detected by their colored appearance using current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and by sunphotometers deployed on the surface of the earth. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Globally significant sources of greenhouse gases (eg., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play a role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, altering the earth's radiation and water budgets. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds; the hydrological cycle; land surface reflectivity and emissivity; and ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two NASA initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented. The objectives of these initiatives is to develop a better understanding of the impacts of aerosols on regional-to-global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review on Application of Poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) in Rechargeable Batteries

Since the very first patent on poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) that was filed in 1988, this polymer has been widely utilized and has achieved great success owing to its high electrical conductivity and excellent stability. The application of the conducting polymer, PEDOT, in renewable energy devices, especially rechargeable batteries, is attracting increasing attention due to its potential to solve the energy and climate crisis. In this review, we summarize the research over the past few decades directed toward the application of PEDOT in rechargeable batteries aimed at improving their electrochemical performance. We focus on PEDOT synthesized via oxidative chemical vapor deposition (oCVD), a relatively new process known for its ability to grow conducting polymer thin films with uniform, pinhole-free properties, and controllable thickness and conformality. For a comparison purpose, PEDOT synthesized via solution-based methods is also briefly summarized. Finally, future research directions for applying oCVD PEDOT in rechargeable batteries are discussed. Introduction PEDOT Synthesis Methods Application of oCVD PEDOT in Rechargeable Batteries Applications of Solution-Based PEDOT in Rechargeable Batteries Conclusions and Outlook

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Generation and Industrial Heat Opportunities for Nuclear Plants in the Gulf Coast

The United States (U.S.) nuclear-generation fleet stands as a critical national strategic asset, playing a pivotal role in achieving climate goals. Operating on light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, this fleet provides the largest share of U.S. carbon-free electrical generation, ensuring 24/7 clean-energy stability. With a proven track record of reliability while operating at high-capacity factors, consistently above 90%, the existing nuclear fleet serves as a cornerstone for sustainable energy. The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS), Flexible Plant Operations and Generation pathway addresses U.S. nuclear power plant (NPP) grid integration challenges in the face of evolving energy landscapes. Research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) highlights the potential synergy between high-temperature steam-electrolysis (HTSE) technology and nuclear steam and electricity during periods of high renewable grid penetration. Large-scale nuclear-integrated hydrogen production through HTSE presents significant potential for decarbonizing such energy-intensive sectors as oil refining, petrochemicals, ammonia, and fertilizers. The strategic advantage lies in the nuclear sector’s capability to deliver clean electrical and/or steam output during periods of low demand. Nuclear-produced hydrogen—with its ability to provide high-purity clean H 2 well below the national standard of 1 kg of CO 2 per kg of H 2 —represents a breakthrough methodology. This emphasizes the crucial role NPPs can fill in addressing the increasing need for clean hydrogen, establishing them as essential contributors to decarbonization. This report specifically delves into hydrogen-generation opportunities from the U.S. Gulf Coast region. This study aims to assess NPP capabilities for hydrogen production and to identify practical nearby industrial and pipeline-operator off-takers for nuclear-integrated hydrogen production as well as to present some specific case-study analysis showing the conditions under which nuclear hydrogen production and sale can be profitable. Also considered in this report is preliminary analysis of nuclear-heat opportunities accessible near Waterford NPP via transportation of hypothetical steam pipelines and heat-exchange equipment.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulated Disruptions of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation has exhibited remarkable stability over the observational record—until a well-documented 2015/16 disruption and an emerging disruption in 2020/21. The possibility that disruptions are more frequent in a changing climate is important to consider, as the QBO affects predictability, stratospheric composition, and surface weather. However, this possibility is challenging to assess for a variety of reasons. For instance, the 2015/16 disruption has been attributed to anomalous easterly momentum flux from extratropical waves. By comparison, the 2020/21 disruption involves anomalous westerly forcing, less likely to originate from the same mechanism. We present a rich variety of QBO disruptions that spontaneously arise in integrations of the hightop NASA GISS Model E2.2. The disruptions loosely fall into several categories, some of which are analogous to the 2015/16 disruption and the 2020 disruption, as well as a previously undocumented possible disruption in 1988. Several factors appear to influence QBO disruptions in the model: natural variability, climate change, tropical SSTs, volcanic eruptions, and model physics/tuning. Although QBO representation is an ongoing challenge for models, the results point to a model-independent framework for assessment of disruptions.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salt Hydrate Eutectic Thermal Energy Storage for Building Thermal Regulation (Final Technical Report)

Thermal energy storage is anticipated to play an important role in developing the power grid of the future - a power grid that meets increasing demands of users, is resistant to disruptions, but also allows for greater penetration of renewable resources. Specifically, thermal energy storage materials can be integrated into HVAC systems and building envelopes, where they can be used to shift power demands for building climate control from periods of peak demand to periods of low demand. Phase change materials (PCMs) are compelling as low-cost, high energy density thermal energy storage materials for building thermal management. However, there is a lack of high performance low-cost PCMs within the specific temperature ranges which would most effectively allow for power load shifting. Inorganic salt hydrates represent a promising class of PCMs, but their inherent limitations cause them to be currently unavailable for reliable building applications. The overarching goals of this research effort are to: 1) Discover low-cost, high volumetric density salt hydrate eutectic PCMs to store low-quality heat (10 to 40 °C); 2) Introduce a high thermal conductivity matrix to reduce the time constant for energy storage to ~0.1 to 1 hr, incorporate nucleation catalysts to decrease undercooling, and utilize microencapsulation and shape stabilization approaches, minimizing moisture loss/gain, mitigating phase separation, and maintaining stable melting behavior over the lifetime of the compounds; 3) Evaluate the impact these systems have on peak load shifting, and the potential for overall energy savings under different climatic scenarios and building configurations. These goals will be achieved by an integrated research program consisting of six cohesive research subtasks: 1) Materials discovery of eutectic salt hydrate PCMs by using computationally predicted thermodynamic equilibria, coupled with high-throughput experimental validation, 2) Rapid experimental screening of nucleation catalysts identified through robust computational databases, 3) Embedding salt hydrate PCM into a low cost and scalable high conductivity matrix, 4) Microencapsulation of salt hydrate microspheres using hybrid inorganic-polymer microencapsulation approach, 5) Shape stabilization by thermoreversible salt hydrate salogels, and 6) Analysis of end-use using thermal simulations, and characterization of mock-up energy storage finished components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud feedback - A stabilizing effect for the early earth

The effect of variations in cloud cover, optical properties, and fractional distribution with altitude on the mean surface temperature of a model of the early earth has been investigated. In all cases examined, cloud-climate feedbacks result in temperatures greater than those in models with no cloud feedbacks. If the model of hydrospheric feedback effects is correct, then cloud feedbacks are as important to the climate as changes in solar luminosity and atmospheric composition during the earth's atmospheric evolution. In particular, the early earth need not become completely ice-covered if strong negative cloud feedbacks occur. However, until a proper understanding of cloud feedbacks is available, conclusions regarding conditions in the early atmosphere must remain in doubt.

Rossow, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The stability of ground ice in the equatorial region of Mars

The lifetime of an unreplenished layer of ground ice lying within 30 deg of the Martian equator was examined within the context of the existing data base on Martian regolith and climate. Data on the partial pressure of H2O in the Martian atmosphere and the range of mean annual temperatures indicated the ground ice would be restricted to latitudes poleward of 40 deg. However, the ground ice near the poles may be a relic from early Martian geologic times held in place by a thin layer of regolith. Consideration of twelve model pore size distributions, similar to silt- and clay-type earth soils, was combined with a parallel pore model of gaseous diffusion to calculate the flux of H2O molecules escaping from the subsurface ground ice layer. Martian equatorial ground ice was found to be influenced by the soil structure, the magnitude of the geothermal gradient, the climatic desorption of CO2 from the regolith. It is concluded that equatorial ground ice is present on Mars only if a process of replenishment is active.

Clifford, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗