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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenically driven climate and landscape change effects on inland water carbon dynamics: What have we learned and where are we going?

Inland waters serve as important hydrological connections between the terrestrial landscape and oceans but are often overlooked in global carbon (C) budgets and Earth System Models. Terrestrially derived C entering inland waters from the watershed can be transported to oceans but over 83% is either buried in sediments or emitted to the atmosphere before reaching oceans. Anthropogenic pressures such as climate and landscape changes are altering the magnitude of these C fluxes in inland waters. Here, we synthesize the most recent estimates of C fluxes and the differential contributions across inland waterbody types (rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and ponds), including recent measurements that incorporate improved sampling methods, small waterbodies, and dried areas. Across all inland waters, we report a global C emission estimate of 4.40 Pg C/year (95% confidence interval: 3.95–4.85 Pg C/year), representing a 13% increase from the most recent estimate. In this work, we also review the mechanisms by which the most globally widespread anthropogenically driven climate and landscape changes influence inland water C fluxes. The majority of these drivers are expected to influence terrestrial C inputs to inland waters due to alterations in terrestrial C quality and quantity, hydrological pathways, and biogeochemical processing. We recommend four research priorities for the future study of anthropogenic alterations to inland water C fluxes: (1) before-and-after measurements of C fluxes associated with climate change events and landscape changes, (2) better quantification of C input from land, (3) improved assessment of spatial coverage and contributions of small inland waterbodies to C fluxes, and (4) integration of dried and drawdown areas to global C flux estimates. Improved measurements of inland water C fluxes and quantification of uncertainty in these estimates will be vital to understanding both terrestrial C losses and the “moving target” of inland water C emissions in response to rapid and complex anthropogenic pressures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons from Earth Aerobiology for Venus Astrobiology

Venus’s clouds have often suggested as a possible habitat. The constraints governing putative airborne life in such a habitat in turn inform priorities and strategies for remote and in situ exploration, methods by which resulting biosignatures might be detected, exoplanet habitability assessment, and planetary protection concerns. Lessons drawn from studying Earth’s aerobiosphere can help improve this understanding. There are altitude ranges within Venus’s clouds in which temperature, pressure, particle size, and radiation appear to be within the limits of microbial life on Earth, and life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed. However, given the lack of a habitable surface reservoir, a long-term stable Venus aerobiosphere would require that the reproduction rate of the airborne microbes be faster than the settling rate of airborne microbes due to gravity, or eventually the population would be depleted; put another way, the mean generation time would need to exceed the mean residence time. This creates a joint constraint of aerosol dynamics, potential nutrient availability and energy influx, and bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage. Even at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair and growth in response to transient water influx, such as from volcanism, is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – thus will also improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. In Earth’s troposphere, warm water clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. However, Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer may be a better analogue: supercooled sulfuric acidaerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 μm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Though ‘hot spots’ can occur associated with tropospheric mixing, viable cells in stratospheric samples are rare (~102 cells/m3), and primarily inactive forms such as spores. It is not yet clear whether such bioaerosols are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located, and reproduction in situ has not yet been observed. In this model of a sparse, largely dormant Venus ecosystem, a single transect on descent is likely to pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. A targeted strategy would sample through an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, andtake multiple transects separated in time and space. This is compatible with other in situ science goals seeking to understand the dynamics and heterogeneities of Venus’s clouds.

Lower atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2016

IN11B-1621: Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest

Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this study, we are able to learn, for the very first time how exactly different climate factors influence vegetation at any location in the Amazon rainforests, independent of the specific sources from which the data has been obtained.

global warming↗
NASA NTRS1990

The scatterometer - Data and applications

The techniques used to extract oceanographic and meteorological parameters from satellite radar scatterometer data are described and demonstrated, primarily on the basis of Seasat data. The principles of backscatter measurement and the general relationships between wind and wave fields are summarized, and the construction of geophysical data records from scatterometer swaths is explained. Particular attention is given to surface-layer dynamics and stresses; planetary-boundary-layer dynamics; averaging methods; the estimation of heat, moisture, and CO2 flux coefficients; the determination of pressure fields; storm monitoring; synoptic-scale analysis; climate analysis; and ocean dynamics. The capabilities and potential applications of the planned ERS-1, NSCAT, and SCANSCAT satellite scatterometers are briefly indicated.

Brown, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa

Shifts in surface climate may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in the pre-Saharan zones of North Africa. Caused by Leishmania major, this form multiplies in the body of rodents serving as reservoirs of the disease. The parasite is then transmitted to human hosts by the bite of a Phlebotomine sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) that was previously fed by biting an infected reservoir. We examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the incidence of this ZCL as a function of surface climate indicators in two regions covering a large area of the semi-arid Pre-Saharan North Africa. Results suggest that in this area, changes in climate may have initiated a trophic cascade that resulted in an increase in ZCL incidence. We find the correlation between the rainy season precipitation and the same year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to be strong for both regions while the number of cases of ZCL incidence lags the precipitation and NDVI by 2 years. The zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis seasonal dynamic appears to be controlled by minimum temperatures and presents a 2-month lag between the reported infection date and the presumed date when the infection actually occurred. The decadal increase in the number of ZCL occurrence in the region suggests that changes in climate increased minimum temperatures sufficiently and created conditions suitable for endemicity that did not previously exist. We also find that temperatures above a critical range suppress ZCL incidence by limiting the vector's reproductive activity.

NDIV↗
NASA NTRS2009

Phytoplankton and Climate

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Moisan, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The QBO in Two GISS Global Climate Models: 1. Generation of the QBO

The adjustment of parameterized gravity waves associated with model convection and finer vertical resolution has made possible the generation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in two Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) models, GISS Middle Atmosphere Global Climate Model III and a climate/middle atmosphere version of Model E2. Both extend from the surface to 0.002 hPa, with 2deg × 2.5deg resolution and 102 layers. Many realistic features of the QBO are simulated, including magnitude and variability of its period and amplitude. The period itself is affected by the magnitude of parameterized convective gravity wave momentum fluxes and interactive ozone (which also affects the QBO amplitude and variability), among other forcings. Although varying sea surface temperatures affect the parameterized momentum fluxes, neither aspect is responsible for the modeled variation in QBO period. Both the parameterized and resolved waves act to produce the respective easterly and westerly wind descent, although their effect is offset in altitude at each level. The modeled and observed QBO influences on tracers in the stratosphere, such as ozone, methane, and water vapor are also discussed. Due to the link between the gravity wave parameterization and the models' convection, and the dependence on the ozone field, the models may also be used to investigate how the QBO may vary with climate change.

middle atmosphere dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2024

Opinion: Aerosol Remote Sensing Over the Next Twenty Years

More than two decades ago, aerosol remote sensing underwent a revolution with the launch of the Terra and Aqua satellites. Advancement continued via additional launches carrying new passive and active sensors. Capable of retrieving parameters characterizing aerosol loading, rudimentary particle properties and in some cases aerosol layer height, the satellite view of Earth’s aerosol system came into focus.The modeling communities have made similar advances. Now the efforts have continued long enough that we can see developing trends in both remote sensing and modeling communities, allowing us to speculate about the future and how the community will approach aerosol remote sensing twenty years from now. We anticipate technology that will replace today’s standard multi-wavelength radiometers with hyperspectral and/or polarimetry all viewing in multiple angles.These will be supported by advanced active sensors with the ability to measure profiles of aerosol extinction in addition to backscatter. The result will be greater insight into aerosol particle properties. Algorithms will move from being primarily physically-based to include an increasing degree of Machine Learning methods, but physically-based techniques will not go extinct. However, the practice of applying algorithms to a single sensor will be in decline. Retrieval algorithms will encompass multiple sensors and all available ground measurements into a unifying framework, and these inverted products will be ingested directly into assimilation systems, becoming “cyborgs”: half observations, half model. In twenty years we will see a true democratization in space with nations large and small, private organizations and commercial entities of all sizes launching space sensors. With this increasing amount of data and aerosol products available, there will be a lot of bad data. User communities will organize to set standards and the large national space agencies will lead the effort to maintain quality by deploying and maintaining validation ground networks and focused field experiments. Through it all, interest will remain high in the global aerosol system and how that system affects climate, clouds, precipitation and dynamics, air quality, the environment and public health, transport of pathogens and fertilization of ecosystems, and how these processes are adapting to a changing climate.

aerosol remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Mid-21st Century Ozone Air Quality and Health Burden in China Under Emissions Scenarios and Climate Change

Despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, China still suffers from poor air quality, and the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 (GFDL-AM3) chemistry-climate model. We impose the same near-term climate change for both emission scenarios by setting global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) to the average over 2010–2019 and 2046–2055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. By the 2050s, annual mean surface ozone increases throughout China by up to 8 ppbv from climate change alone (estimated by holding air pollutants at 2015 levels while setting SIC and SST to 2050 conditions in the model) and by 8–12 ppbv in a scenario in which emissions of ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO (sub x) ) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by ~10%. In a scenario in which NO (sub x) and anthropogenic VOC emissions decline by 60%, annual mean surface ozone over China decreases by 16–20 ppbv in the 2050s relative to the 2010s. The ozone increase from climate change alone results in an additional 62 000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330 000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under a strong emissions mitigation scenario. In springtime over Southwestern China in the 2050s, the model projects 9–12 ppbv enhancements to surface ozone from the stratosphere (diagnosed with a model tracer) and from international anthropogenic emissions (diagnosed by differencing AM3 simulations with the same emissions within China but higher versus lower emissions in the rest of the world). Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China.

Westervelt, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Dynamics and Thermodynamics of ENSO and Its Complexity Simulated by E3SM and Other Climate Models

Despite the seeming success of most state-of-the-art climate models in simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there is strong evidence that models achieve realistic levels of ENSO activity do so often for wrong reasons. This is owing to an often occurred near cancelation of large errors in terms of contributions to ENSO growth rate from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedback processes. Climate models remain deficient in simulating the observed ENSO’s spatial and temporal complexity that involves interplays of coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, interactions across multiple scales, nonlinear processes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean system, biases in mean sate and physical processes, and influences external to equatorial Pacific coupled ENSO dynamics. Our proposed research aims at advancing predictive and process-level understandings of ENSO simulated in E3SM and other climate models under current and future climate conditions with two main objectives: (i) better understanding the aforementioned broad range interactive processes and sources that control fundamental properties of ENSO in E3SM and CIMP6 outputs as well as in observational (reanalysis) data sets, using a hierarchical of coupled dynamical frameworks consisting of theoretical analysis, intermediate complexity modeling, and coupled dynamic diagnostics; (ii) to use this understanding to explore pathways towards improving E3SM’s capability of simulating ENSO and its complexity. More specifically, we will focus on four main thrusts of research: (1) ENSO’s dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks; (2) the across-scale interactions of ENSO with annual cycle and MJO/WWB/TIW (Madden Julian Oscillation/Westerly Wind Burst/Tropical Instability Wave) activity; (3) key nonlinear processes of ENSO involving atmospheric convective thresholds, nonlinear ocean dynamic heating, and thermocline outcropping; and (4) the impacts of climate mean-state biases/changes and perturbed physical processes on simulated ENSO and its complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1987

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Carleton, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Precipitation Modeling over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the Relationship to the Surface Mass Balance and Climate

Atmospheric numerical simulation and dynamic retrieval method with atmospheric numerical analyses are used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation for the last two decades. First, the Polar MM5 has been run over Antarctica to study the Antarctic precipitation. With a horizontal resolution of 60km, the Polar MM5 has been run for the period of July 1996 through June 1999 in a series of short-term forecasts from initial and boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF operational analyses. In comparison with climatological maps, the major features of the spatial distribution of Antarctic precipitation are well captured by the Polar MM5. Drift snow effects on redistribution of surface accumulation over Antarctica are also assessed with surface wind fields from Polar MM5 in this study. There are complex divergence and convergence patterns of drift snow transport over Antarctica, especially along the coast. It is found that areas with large drift snow transport convergence and divergence are located around escarpment areas where there is large katabatic wind acceleration. In addition, areas with large snow transport divergence are generally accompanied by areas with large snow transport convergence nearby, indicating that drift snow transport is of local importance for the redistribution of the snowfall

Bromwich, David H.↗