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DOE OSTI2020

Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications

The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Science Personality and STEM Ambassador

Dr. Amy Elliott has had unique opportunities to serve as a STEM role model through her various media production projects. Her debut on screen was as a competitor on an engineering reality show competition called “The Big Brain Theory,” aired by The Discovery Channel. Following this competition, Dr. Elliott served as an on-camera host for RoboNation’s water-based, annual collegiate competitions and for The Science Channel’s viral video show, “Outrageous Acts of Science.” Dr. Elliott also serves as volunteer pit-crew for Green Envy Racing, a woman-lead race team that seeks to set and speed records with electric motorcycles. Because of Dr. Elliott’s public exposure, she was selected as an IF/THEN Ambassador by the American Associate for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), a program that seeks to highlight women as STEM role models. Dr. Elliott’s work in 3D printing is frequently a source of inspiration for her.

Elliott, Amy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strongly Interacting Matter Under Rotation: An Introduction

Ultrarelativistic collisions between heavy nuclei briefly generate the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), a new state of matter characterized by deconfined par- tons last seen microseconds after the Big Bang. The properties of the QGP are of intense interest, and a large community has developed over several decades, to pro- duce, measure and understand this primordial plasma. The plasma is now recog- nized to be a strongly-coupled fluid with remarkable properties, and hydrodynamics is commonly used to quantify and model the system. An important feature of any fluid is its vorticity, related to the local angular momentum density; however, this degree of freedom has received relatively little attention because no experimental signals of vorticity had been detected. Thanks to recent high-statistics datasets from experiments with precision tracking and complete kinemetic coverage at collider energies, hyperon spin polarization measurements have begun to uncover the vor- ticity of the QGP created at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The injection of this new degree of freedom into a relatively mature field of research represents an enormous opportunity to generate new insights into the physics of the QGP. The community has responded with enthusiasm, and this book (to be published as a volume of Lecture Notes in Physics series by Springer) represents some of the diverse lines of inquiry into aspects of strongly interacting matter under rotation

Becattini, Francesco↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Light dilaton in rare meson decays and extraction of its CP property

Abstract The dilatonϕis a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson associated with the spontaneous breaking of scale invariance in a nearly conformal theory, and couples to the trace of the stress-energy tensor. We analyze experimental constraints on a light dilaton with mass in the MeV–GeV range from rare meson decays. New model-independent inclusive bounds for theb→sϕtransition largely exclude the parameter space of a light dilaton that could explain the muong− 2 anomaly. Despite similarities between a dilaton and a Higgs-portal scalar, the dilaton-photon coupling is enhanced compared to the Higgs-portal scalar due to contributions from loops of the conformal sector. Consequently, the shortened lifetime of the dilaton relaxes bounds fromK→π+ invisible searches at the NA62 experiment and constraints from the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. We utilize this fact to search for the dilaton signature at a lepton collider such as the ongoing Belle II experiment. Further, we demonstrate how to extract the CP property of the dilaton using the variation of the differential cross-section ofe + e − →e + e − ϕwith the azimuthal angle between the outgoing leptons.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

The cosmological moduli problem and naturalness

Nowadays, the cosmological moduli problem (CMP) comes in three parts: 1. potential violation of Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints from late decaying moduli fields, 2. the moduli-induced gravitino problem wherein gravitinos are overproduced and their decays violate BBN or dark matter overproduction bounds and 3. the moduli-induced lightest SUSY particle (LSP) overproduction problem. Also, the CMP may be regarded as either a problem or else a solution to scenarios with dark matter over- or under-production. We examine the cosmological moduli problem and its connection to electroweak naturalness. We calculate the various two-body decay widths of a light modulus field into MSSM particles and gravitinos within general supersymmetric models. We include both phase space and mixing effects. We examine cases without and with helicity suppression of modulus decays to gravitinos (cases 1 & 2) and/or gauginos (cases A & B). For case B1, we evaluate regions of gravitino mass m 3/2 vs. modulus mass mΦ parameter space constrained by BBN, by overproduction of gravitinos and by overproduction of neutralino dark matter, along with connections to naturalness. For this case, essentially all of parameter space is excluded unless mΦ ≳ 2.5 × 10 3 TeV with mΦ< 2m 3/2 For a potentially most propitious case B2 with Φ decay to Higgs and matter turned off, then modulus branching fractions to SUSY and to gravitinos become highly suppressed at large m Φ . But since the modulus number density increases faster than the branching fractions decrease, there is still gross overproduction of neutralino dark matter. We also show that in this scenario the thermally produced gravitino problem is fixed by huge entropy dilution, but non-thermal gravitino production from moduli decay remains a huge problem unless it is kinematically suppressed with m Φ < 2m 3/2 . In a pedagogical appendix, we present detailed calculations of modulus field two-body decay widths.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from global cosmic strings and cosmic archaeology

Global cosmic strings are predicted in many motivated extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, with close connections to axion dark matter physics. Recent studies suggest that, although subdominant relative to Goldstone emission, gravitational wave (GW) signals from global strings can be detectable with current and planned GW detectors such as LIGO, LISA, DECIGO/BBO, ET/CE and AEDGE/AION, as well as pulsar timing arrays such as PPTA, NANOGrav and SKA. This work is an extensive, updated study on GWs from a global cosmic string network, taking into account of the most recent developments related to the subject. The main analysis is based on the analytical Velocity-dependent One-Scale (VOS) model calibrated with recent simulation results, which provides a generic protocol for such calculations with details given. We also demonstrate how the GW signal can be influenced with variations to the baseline model: this includes considering the uncertainties of model parameters and the potential deviation from the conventional VOS model prediction (i.e. the scaling behavior) as suggested by some of the recent simulation results. Furthermore, we investigated in detail the effect of a non-standard cosmology (e.g. early matter domination or kination) or new particle species on the GW signals from global strings. We demonstrate that the frequency spectrum of GW background from global cosmic strings can be used to probe the cosmic history prior to the Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) (i.e. the primordial dark age) up to a temperature of T ~ 10 8 GeV.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neutrinoless double beta decay via light neutralinos in R-parity violating supersymmetry

We perform a study of neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay mediated by the lightest neutralino of arbitrary mass in the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) under the presence of R-parity violating trilinear interactions. In this scenario, the exchange of the lightest neutralino can result in 0νββ decay of either long-range or short-range behaviour, depending on the neutralino mass. Using nuclear matrix elements calculated in the interacting boson model, we use an interpolation between the long- and short-range behaviours with an approximate formula. The non-observation of 0νββ decay is then used to place constraints on the supersymmetry parameter space, compatible with constraints from collider experiments. We compare these constraints to bounds from pion decays, CKM unitarity and big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cosmological gravitational particle production of massive spin-2 particles

The phenomenon of cosmological gravitational particle production (CGPP) is expected to occur during the period of inflation and the transition into a hot big bang cosmology. Particles may be produced even if they only couple directly to gravity, and so CGPP provides a natural explanation for the origin of dark matter. In this work we study the gravitational production of massive spin-2 particles assuming two different couplings to matter. We evaluate the full system of mode equations, including the helicity-0 modes, and by solving them numerically we calculate the spectrum and abundance of massive spin-2 particles that results from inflation on a hilltop potential. We conclude that CGPP might provide a viable mechanism for the generation of massive spin-2 particle dark matter during inflation, and we identify the favorable region of parameter space in terms of the spin-2 particle’s mass and the reheating temperature. As a secondary product of our work, we identify the conditions under which such theories admit ghost or gradient instabilities, and we thereby derive a generalization of the Higuchi bound to Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) spacetimes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating cosmology from Λ < 0 gravitational effective field theory

A large class of Λ < 0 cosmologies have big-bang/big crunch spacetimes with time-symmetric backgrounds and asymptotically AdS Euclidean continuations suggesting a possible holographic realization. We argue that these models generically have time-dependent scalar fields, and these can lead to realistic cosmologies at the level of the homogeneous background geometry, with an accelerating phase prior to the turnaround and crunch. We first demonstrate via explicit effective field theory examples that models with an asymptotically AdS Euclidean continuation can also exhibit a period of accelerated expansion without fine tuning. We then show that certain significantly more tuned examples can give predictions arbitrarily close to a ΛCDM model. Finally, we demonstrate via an explicit construction that the potentials of interest can arise from a superpotential, thus suggesting that these solutions may be compatible with an underlying supersymmetric theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from an inflation triggered first-order phase transition

Large excursion of the inflaton field can trigger interesting dynamics. One important example is a first-order phase transition in a spectator sector which couples to the inflaton. Gravitational waves (GWs) from such a first-order phase transition during inflation, an example of an instantaneous source, have an oscillatory feature. In this work, we show that this feature is generic for a source in an era of accelerated expansion. We also demonstrate that the shape of the GW signal contains information about the evolution of the early universe following the phase transition. In particular, the slope of the infrared part of the GW spectrum is sensitive to the evolution of the Hubble parameter when the GW modes reenter the horizon after inflation. The slope of the profile of the intermediate oscillatory part and the ultraviolet part of the GW spectrum depend on the evolution of the Hubble parameter when the modes exit horizon during the inflation and when they reenter the horizon during the reheating. The ultraviolet spectrum also depends on the details of the dynamics of the phase transition. We consider the GW signal in several models of evolution during and after inflation, and compare them with the minimal scenario of quasi- de Sitter inflation followed by radiation domination after a fast reheating, and demonstrate that the shape of the GW can be used to distinguish them. In this way, the GW signal considered in this paper offers a powerful probe to the dynamics of the early universe which is otherwise difficult to explore directly through CMB, large scale structure, big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), and other well-studied cosmological observables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutrino interactions in the late universe

The cosmic neutrino background is both a dramatic prediction of the hot Big Bang and a compelling target for current and future observations. The impact of relativistic neutrinos in the early universe has been observed at high significance in a number of cosmological probes. In addition, the non-zero mass of neutrinos alters the growth of structure at late times, and this signature is a target for a number of upcoming surveys. These measurements are sensitive to the physics of the neutrino and could be used to probe physics beyond the standard model in the neutrino sector. We explore an intriguing possibility where light right-handed neutrinos are coupled to all, or a fraction of, the dark matter through a mediator. In a wide range of parameter space, this interaction only becomes important at late times and is uniquely probed by late-time cosmological observables. Due to this coupling, the dark matter and neutrinos behave as a single fluid with a non-trivial sound speed, leading to a suppression of power on small scales. In current and near-term cosmological surveys, this signature is equivalent to an increase in the sum of the neutrino masses. Given current limits, we show that at most 0.5% of the dark matter could be coupled to neutrinos in this way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

R -parity violation axiogenesis

We show that the rotation of the QCD axion field, aided by B–L violation from supersymmetric R-parity violating couplings, can yield the observed baryon abundance. Strong sphaleron processes transfer the angular momentum of the axion field into a quark chiral asymmetry, which R-parity violating couplings convert to the baryon asymmetry of the Universe. We focus on the case of dimensionless R-parity violating couplings with textures motivated by grand unified theories and comment on more general scenarios. The axion decay constant and mass spectrum of supersymmetric particles are constrained by Big Bang nucleosynthesis, proton decay from the R-parity violation, and successful thermalization of the Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking field. Axion dark matter may be produced by the axion rotation via the kinetic misalignment mechanism for axion decay constants below 10 10 GeV, or by the conventional misalignment mechanism for 10 11-12 GeV. The viable parameter region can be probed by proton decay and axion searches. This scenario may also have connections with collider experiments, including searches for long-lived particles, and observations of gravitational waves.

Beyond Standard Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

BBN photodisintegration constraints on gravitationally produced vector bosons

Gravitational production of massive particles due to cosmic expansion can be significant during the inflationary and reheating period of the Universe. If the particle also has non-gravitational interactions that do not significantly affect its production, numerous observational probes open up, including cosmological probes. In this work, we focus on the gravitational production of light vector bosons that couple feebly to the Standard Model (SM) particles. Due to the very feeble coupling, the light vector bosons never reach thermal equilibrium, and if the Hubble scale at the end of inflation is above 10 8 GeV, the gravitational production can overwhelm the thermal production via the freeze-in mechanism by many orders of magnitude. As a result, much stronger constraints from the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) can be placed on the lifetime and mass of the vector bosons compared to the scenario where only thermal production is considered. As an example, we study the sub-GeV scale dark photons, which couple to the SM only through kinetic mixing, and derive constraints on the mass and kinetic mixing parameter of the dark photon from the photodisintegration effects on the light element abundances relevant at the end of the BBN when the cosmic age was around 10 4 s.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relationships between Cloud Droplet Spectral Relative Dispersion and Entrainment Rate and Their Impacting Factors

Cloud microphysical properties are significantly affected by entrainment and mixing processes. However, it is unclear how the entrainment rate affects the relative dispersion of cloud droplet size distribution. Previously, the relationship between relative dispersion and entrainment rate was found to be positive or negative. To reconcile the contrasting relationships, the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model is used to determine the underlying mechanisms. When evaporation is dominated by small droplets, and the entrained environmental air is further saturated during mixing, the relationship is negative. However, when the evaporation of big droplets is dominant, the relationship is positive. Whether or not the cloud condensation nuclei are considered in the entrained environmental air is a key factor as condensation on the entrained condensation nuclei is the main source of small droplets. However, if cloud condensation nuclei are not entrained, the relationship is positive. If cloud condensation nuclei are entrained, the relationship is dependent on many other factors. High vertical velocity, relative humidity of environmental air, liquid water content, and low droplet number concentration are more likely to cause the negative relationship since new saturation is easier to achieve by evaporation of small droplets. Further, the signs of the relationship are not strongly affected by the turbulence dissipation rate, but the higher dissipation rate causes the positive relationship more significant for a larger entrainment rate. A conceptual model is proposed to reconcile the contrasting relationships. This work enhances the understanding of relative dispersion and lays a foundation for the quantification of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Abstract Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing water quality in surface water and alluvial groundwaters downgradient of a reclaimed surface coal mine in the Powder River Basin of southeastern Montana, USA

Abstract Coal mining and reclamation can have a profound influence on hydrogeologic systems, with clear consequences for groundwater quality, yet their long-term influence on downgradient water quality over time following reclamation is less well documented. Geochemical trends were evaluated in water quality downgradient of a fully reclaimed landscape at the former Big Sky Mine in the Rosebud Creek watershed (southeastern Montana, USA), over a 3-year period (2020–2022), including bond release in 2022. Within 6 km downgradient from the reclaimed area, sulfate concentrations decreased from approximately 3500 to 1800 mg l −1 within the Miller Coulee alluvial aquifer. Major ions, δ 34 S SO4 values, and residence time tracers suggest that the observed decreases in sulfate concentration result from a combination of dilution by mixed-age inflows and incomplete transit of the high salinity plume from the mine boundary. Both bedrock and alluvial aquifers of the Rosebud Creek corridor contained contributions of millennia-old regional groundwater, which may serve to mitigate mine-derived high salinity waters. Rosebud Creek, which traverses the outflow zone of Miller Coulee in the study area, exhibited high sulfate concentrations during low flows and consistent downgradient increases in sulfate concentration. The possibility of plume dynamics in Miller Coulee suggests that the greatest water quality impacts may not yet have reached Rosebud Creek.

Keeshin, Skye I. (ORCID:0009000986449872)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Introduction to the special issue on smart transportation

Transportation is getting smarter and smarter, with the prominence of connected automated vehicle technologies in the global auto industry’s near-term growth strategies, of big data analytics and unprecedented access to sensing data of mobility, and of integration of this analytics into the optimization of mobility and transport. Further, these developments are setting off a wave of smart transportation innovations, which are featured by new methods and applications driven by various forms of sensor data such as GPS, CAN bus, LIDA, images, etc. At the same time, complexities surrounding the use, conflation, and processing of disparate data in near real-time is of essence for the design and development of futuristic smart transportation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗