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At least 361 records · Page 20

Fusion of Surface Ceilometer Data and Satellite Cloud Retrievals in 2D Mesh Interpolating Model with Clustering

For accurate cloud ceiling information, a data fusion approach is proposed that utilizes satellite data to extend surface station information to much wider areas. Cloud base height (CBH) retrieved from satellite observations provides for much larger spatial coverage and higher resolution. The direct comparison of GOES-16 CBH with surface station ceiling yields a local bias that has to be corrected for in the initial GOES-16 cloud base information. This sparsely sampled bias correction presents an irregular 2D mesh of control points, which is then interpolated by constructing a continuous smooth field using polyharmonic splines. The influence of remote stations is restricted by grouping the control points into clusters depending on an effective distance. This cluster-based approach allows for constructing separate spline surfaces corresponding to physically different clouds. The obtained continuous bias correction function is then applied to the entire GOES-16 pixel level CBH except for areas far away from surface stations in data sparse regions such as offshore. The described method is currently being tested using daytime-only observations over the central and eastern United States. Overall, this approach has potential to provide more accurate, high spatial resolution cloud ceiling information for the aviation community.

Khlopenkov, Konstantin↗

Towards Off-policy Evaluation as a Prerequisite for Real-world Reinforcement Learning in Building Control

We present an initial study of off-policy evaluation (OPE), a problem prerequisite to real-world reinforcement learning (RL), in the context of building control. OPE is the problem of estimating a policy's performance without running it on the actual system, using historical data from the existing controller. It enables the control engineers to ensure a new, pretrained policy satisfies the performance requirements and safety constraints of a real-world system, prior to interacting with it. While many methods have been developed for OPE, no study has evaluated which ones are suitable for building operational data, which are generated by deterministic policies and have limited coverage of the state-action space. After reviewing existing works and their assumptions, we adopted the approximate model (AM) method. Furthermore, we used bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty and correct for bias. In a simulation study, we evaluated the proposed approach on 10 policies pretrained with imitation learning. On average, the AM method estimated the energy and comfort costs with 1.84% and 14.1% error, respectively.

Chen, B↗

Interpreting The Unresolved Intensity Of Cosmologically Redshifted Line Radiation

Intensity mapping experiments survey the spectrum of diffuse line radiation rather than detect individual objects at high signal-to-noise ratio. Spectral maps of unresolved atomic and molecular line radiation contain three-dimensional information about the density and environments of emitting gas and efficiently probe cosmological volumes out to high redshift. Intensity mapping survey volumes also contain all other sources of radiation at the frequencies of interest. Continuum foregrounds are typically approximately 10(sup 2)-10(Sup 3) times brighter than the cosmological signal. The instrumental response to bright foregrounds will produce new spectral degrees of freedom that are not known in advance, nor necessarily spectrally smooth. The intrinsic spectra of fore-grounds may also not be well known in advance. We describe a general class of quadratic estimators to analyze data from single-dish intensity mapping experiments and determine contaminated spectral modes from the data themselves. The key attribute of foregrounds is not that they are spectrally smooth, but instead that they have fewer bright spectral degrees of freedom than the cosmological signal. Spurious correlations between the signal and foregrounds produce additional bias. Compensation for signal attenuation must estimate and correct this bias. A successful intensity mapping experiment will control instrumental systematics that spread variance into new modes, and it must observe a large enough volume that contaminant modes can be determined independently from the signal on scales of interest.

INTERPRETING↗

Sensitivity Studies for Space-based Measurements of Atmospheric Total Column Carbon Dioxide Using Reflected Sunlight

A series of sensitivity studies is carried out to explore the feasibility of space-based global carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for global and regional carbon cycle studies. The detection method uses absorption of reflected sunlight in the CO2 vibration-rotation band at 1.58 micron. The sensitivities of the detected radiances are calculated using the line-by-line model (LBLRTM), implemented with the DISORT (Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer) model to include atmospheric scattering in this band. The results indicate that (a) the small (approx.1%) changes in CO2 near the Earth's surface are detectable in this CO2 band provided adequate sensor signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution are achievable; (b) the effects of other interfering constituents, such as water vapor, aerosols and cirrus clouds, on the radiance are significant but the overall effects of the modification of light path length on total back-to-space radiance sensitivity to CO2 change are minor for general cases, which means that generally the total column CO2 can be derived in high precision from the ratio of the on-line center to off-line radiances; (c) together with CO2 gas absorption aerosol/cirrus cloud layer has differential scattering which may result in the modification of on-line to off-line radiance ratio which could lead a large bias in the total column CO2 retrieval. Approaches to correct such bias need further investigation. (d) CO2 retrieval requires good knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile, e.g. approximately 1K RMS error in layer temperature, which is achievable from new atmospheric sounders in the near future; (e) the atmospheric path length, over which the CO2 absorption occurs, should be known in order to correctly interpret horizontal gradients of CO2 from the total column CO2 measurement; thus an additional sensor for surface pressure measurement needs to be attached for a complete measurement package.

Mao, Jianping↗

Effect of Malmquist bias on correlation studies with IRAS data base

The relationships between galaxy properties in the sample of Trinchieri et al. (1989) are reexamined with corrections for Malmquist bias. The linear correlations are tested and linear regressions are fit for log-log plots of L(FIR), L(H-alpha), and L(B) as well as ratios of these quantities. The linear correlations for Malmquist bias are corrected using the method of Verter (1988), in which each galaxy observation is weighted by the inverse of its sampling volume. The linear regressions are corrected for Malmquist bias by a new method invented here in which each galaxy observation is weighted by its sampling volume. The results of correlation and regressions among the sample are significantly changed in the anticipated sense that the corrected correlation confidences are lower and the corrected slopes of the linear regressions are lower. The elimination of Malmquist bias eliminates the nonlinear rise in luminosity that has caused some authors to hypothesize additional components of FIR emission.

Verter, Frances↗

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

Abstract Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

Haxall-based (Axon) fault auto-correction package for building HVAC system (Haxall-based Fault Correction) v1.0

Haxall-based Fault Correction is a set of fault auto-correction algorithms implemented using the Axon language. These algorithms can automatically fix equipment and control problems as they arise and improve the operation of building Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. The coded auto-correction algorithms include mitigation of rogue zones, ASHRAE Guideline 36 static pressure and supply air reset, resolution of control hunting due to improper settings in a proportional-integral-derivative controller, correction of biased temperature sensors, etc. FDD tools with enhanced auto-correction capability can resolve control problems as they are detected, increasing energy savings and emissions reductions while freeing up operational staff expertise for the hardest facility problems.

Vitti, Raphael↗

Mapping the Gas Turbulence in the Coma Cluster: Predictions for Astro-H

Astro-H will be able for the first time to map gas velocities and detect turbulence in galaxy clusters. One of the best targets for turbulence studies is the Coma cluster, due to its proximity, absence of a cool core, and lack of a central active galactic nucleus. To determine what constraints Astro-H will be able to place on the Coma velocity field, we construct simulated maps of the projected gas velocity and compute the second-order structure function, an analog of the velocity power spectrum. We vary the injection scale, dissipation scale, slope, and normalization of the turbulent power spectrum, and apply measurement errors and finite sampling to the velocity field. We find that even with sparse coverage of the cluster, Astro-H will be able to measure the Mach number and the injection scale of the turbulent power spectrum-the quantities determining the energy flux down the turbulent cascade and the diffusion rate for everything that is advected by the gas (metals, cosmic rays, etc.). Astro-H will not be sensitive to the dissipation scale or the slope of the power spectrum in its inertial range, unless they are outside physically motivated intervals. We give the expected confidence intervals for the injection scale and the normalization of the power spectrum for a number of possible pointing configurations, combining the structure function and velocity dispersion data. Importantly, we also determine that measurement errors on the line shift will bias the velocity structure function upward, and show how to correct this bias.

clusters: intracluster medium↗

Chromatic effects on the PSF and shear measurement for the Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide Area Survey

Weak gravitational lensing (WL) is a key cosmological probe that requires precise measurement of galaxy images to infer shape distortions, or shear, and constrain cosmology. Accurate estimation of the point spread function (PSF) is crucial for shear measurement, but the wavelength dependence of the PSF introduces chromatic biases that can systematically impact shear inference. We focus on biases arising from spectral energy distribution (SED) differences between stars, used for PSF modelling, and galaxies, used for shear measurement. We investigate these effects in Roman’s four design reference mission WL bands (Y106, J129, H158, F184) and wide filter (W146). Using Roman-like image simulations, we quantify the induced shear biases and compare them to requirements on those biases. Multiplicative biases over all galaxies hover around ~0.2 per cent in the WL bands and 2 per cent in the wide filter, exceeding the mission requirement of |m| < 0.032 per cent and relaxed requirement of |m| < 0.1 per cent⁠. In individual redshift bins, biases can reach 0.4–0.9 per cent for the WL bands and 3–6 per cent for the wide filter. Additive biases remain acceptable in the WL bands but exceed systematic limits in the wide filter. We develop and test PSF-level corrections, showing that a first-order correction reduces biases within survey requirements for the WL bands; however, higher-order terms are necessary for the wide filter. Our results highlight the necessity of chromatic corrections for precision WL with Roman and provide a framework for mitigating these biases. Finally, we compare analytical colour-based corrections to self-organizing maps and find that both methods effectively reduce biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improved Architectures and Training Algorithms for Deep Operator Networks

Operator learning techniques have recently emerged as a powerful tool for learning maps between infinite-dimensional Banach spaces. Trained under appropriate constraints, they can also be effective in learning the solution operator of partial differential equations (PDEs) in an entirely self-supervised manner. In this work we analyze the training dynamics of deep operator networks (DeepONets) through the lens of Neural Tangent Kernel theory, and reveal a bias that favors the approximation of functions with larger magnitudes. To correct this bias we propose to adaptively re-weight the importance of each training example, and demonstrate how this procedure can effectively balance the magnitude of back-propagated gradients during training via gradient descent. We also propose a novel network architecture that is more resilient to vanishing gradient pathologies. Taken together, our developments provide new insights into the training of DeepONets and consistently improve their predictive accuracy by a factor of 10-50x, demonstrated in the challenging setting of learning PDE solution operators in the absence of paired input-output observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Biases in the In Situ Measurement of Particulate Organic Carbon and Its Effect on the Calibration and Validation of Ocean Color Sensors

Particulate organic carbon (POC) plays an oversize role, relative to its standing stock in the global carbon (C) cycle. Accurate measurement of POC is central to understanding the ocean C flux and its sensitivity to climate forcing. POC is a standard NASA ocean color data product, which lacks a consensus, quality-assured measurement protocol for satellite validation. Thus, algorithms based on field measurements lacking verified uncertainties have limited applicability towards climate data records. Different sampling and filtration protocols, and blank corrections, introduce biases in the magnitude of POC measured from the field. A significant filter blank attributable to dissolved organic C (DOC) adsorption that, until recently has been seldom corrected for, likely has introduced biases in POC global datasets.

Chaves, Joaquín E.↗

Accuracy Assessment of Aqua-MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Over Coastal Regions: Importance of Quality Flag and Sea Surface Wind Speed

Coastal regions around the globe are a major source for anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere, but the underlying surface characteristics are not favorable for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) algorithms designed for retrieval of aerosols over dark land or open-ocean surfaces. Using data collected from 62 coastal stations worldwide from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) from approximately 2002-2010, accuracy assessments are made for coastal aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from MODIS aboard Aqua satellite. It is found that coastal AODs (at 550 nm) characterized respectively by the MODIS Dark Land (hereafter Land) surface algorithm, the Open-Ocean (hereafter Ocean) algorithm, and AERONET all exhibit a log-normal distribution. After filtering by quality flags, the MODIS AODs respectively retrieved from the Land and Ocean algorithms are highly correlated with AERONET (with R(sup 2) is approximately equal to 0.8), but only the Land algorithm AODs fall within the expected error envelope greater than 66% of the time. Furthermore, the MODIS AODs from the Land algorithm, Ocean algorithm, and combined Land and Ocean product show statistically significant discrepancies from their respective counterparts from AERONET in terms of mean, probability density function, and cumulative density function, which suggest a need for future improvement in retrieval algorithms. Without filtering with quality flag, the MODIS Land and Ocean AOD dataset can be degraded by 30-50% in terms of mean bias. Overall, the MODIS Ocean algorithm overestimates the AERONET coastal AOD by 0.021 for AOD less than 0.25 and underestimates it by 0.029 for AOD greater than 0.25. This dichotomy is shown to be related to the ocean surface wind speed and cloud contamination effects on the satellite aerosol retrieval. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reveals that wind speeds over the global coastal region 25 (with a mean and median value of 2.94 meters per second and 2.66 meters per second, respectively) are often slower than 6 meters per second assumed in the MODIS Ocean algorithm. As a result of high correlation (R(sup 2) greater than 0.98) between the bias in binned MODIS AOD and the corresponding binned wind speed over the coastal sea surface, an empirical scheme for correcting the bias of AOD retrieved from the MODIS Ocean algorithm is formulated and is shown to be effective over the majority of the coastal AERONET stations, and hence can be used in future analysis of AOD trend and MODIS AOD data assimilation.

Anderson, J. C.↗

Global terrestrial nitrogen fixation and its modification by agriculture

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of new nitrogen (N) that supports terrestrial productivity, yet estimates of global terrestrial BNF remain highly uncertain. Here, in this study, we show that this uncertainty is partly because of sampling bias, as field BNF measurements in natural terrestrial ecosystems occur where N fixers are 17 times more prevalent than their mean abundances worldwide. To correct this bias, we develop new estimates of global terrestrial BNF by upscaling field BNF measurements using spatially explicit abundances of all major biogeochemical N-fixing niches. We find that natural biomes sustain lower BNF, 65 (52–77) Tg N yr −1 , than previous empirical bottom-up estimates, with most BNF occurring in tropical forests and drylands. We also find high agricultural BNF in croplands and cultivated pastures, 56 (54–58) Tg N yr −1 . Agricultural BNF has increased terrestrial BNF by 64% and total terrestrial N inputs from all sources by 60% over pre-industrial levels. Our results indicate that BNF may impose stronger constraints on the carbon sink in natural terrestrial biomes and represent a larger source of agricultural N than is generally considered in analyses of the global N cycle, with implications for proposed safe operating limits for N use.

Reis Ely, Carla R. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis,↗

Calibrated Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) Moments

The SGP Central Facility (C1) radar wind profiler (RWP) was calibrated using nearby surface disdrometer observations. Between 2011 and 2019, the SGP C1 RWP operated in two modes. The vertically pointing mode (named the precipitation mode) transmitted a short and long pulse length to have two different range resolutions and the beam-swinging mode (named the wind mode) transmitted one pulse length into three different beam directions. The precipitation-mode observations were available and calibrated from April 2011 through mid-August 2019. The wind-mode observations were available and calibrated between April 2014 and March 2019. The RWP spectra were processed to account for Nyquist velocity aliasing and coherent integration filtering effects before calculating the spectrum moments. During intense precipitation events, the calculated signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is biased low due to signal power being distributed across the velocity spectrum such that some signal power is erroneously included in the noise level estimate, causing the noise level to be biased high. To correct for the low SNR bias, a new noise level is estimated using observations without precipitation and the SNR is increased accordingly. The adjusted SNR was converted to radar reflectivity factor and then calibrated against a nearby surface disdrometer. The calibration methodology is fully described in: Williams, CR, J Barrio, PE Johnston, P Muradyan, and S Giangrande. 2023. “Calibrating radar wind profiler reflectivity factor using surface disdrometer observations.” Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2022-1405/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An empirical determination of the effects of sea state bias on Seasat altimetry

A linear empirical model has been developed for the correction of sea state bias effects, in Seasat altimetry data altitude measurements, that are due to (1) electromagnetic bias caused by the fact that ocean wave troughs reflect the altimeter signal more strongly than the crests, shifting the apparent mean sea level toward the wave troughs, and (2) an independent instrument-related bias resulting from the inability of height corrections applied in the ground processor to compensate for simplifying assumptions made for the processor aboard Seasat. After applying appropriate corrections to the altimetry data, an empirical model for the sea state bias is obtained by differencing significant wave height and height measurements from coincident ground tracks. Height differences are minimized by solving for the coefficient of a linear relationship between height differences and wave height differences that minimize the height differences. In more than 50% of the 36 cases examined, 7% of the value of significant wave height should be subtracted for sea state bias correction.

Born, G. H.↗

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗