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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Self-assessed performance improves statistical fusion of image labels

Purpose: Expert manual labeling is the gold standard for image segmentation, but this process is difficult, time-consuming, and prone to inter-individual differences. While fully automated methods have successfully targeted many anatomies, automated methods have not yet been developed for numerous essential structures (e.g., the internal structure of the spinal cord as seen on magnetic resonance imaging). Collaborative labeling is a new paradigm that offers a robust alternative that may realize both the throughput of automation and the guidance of experts. Yet, distributing manual labeling expertise across individuals and sites introduces potential human factors concerns (e.g., training, software usability) and statistical considerations (e.g., fusion of information, assessment of confidence, bias) that must be further explored. During the labeling process, it is simple to ask raters to self-assess the confidence of their labels, but this is rarely done and has not been previously quantitatively studied. Herein, the authors explore the utility of self-assessment in relation to automated assessment of rater performance in the context of statistical fusion. Methods: The authors conducted a study of 66 volumes manually labeled by 75 minimally trained human raters recruited from the university undergraduate population. Raters were given 15 min of training during which they were shown examples of correct segmentation, and the online segmentation tool was demonstrated. The volumes were labeled 2D slice-wise, and the slices were unordered. A self-assessed quality metric was produced by raters for each slice by marking a confidence bar superimposed on the slice. Volumes produced by both voting and statistical fusion algorithms were compared against a set of expert segmentations of the same volumes. Results: Labels for 8825 distinct slices were obtained. Simple majority voting resulted in statistically poorer performance than voting weighted by self-assessed performance. Statistical fusion resulted in statistically indistinguishable performance from self-assessed weighted voting. The authors developed a new theoretical basis for using self-assessed performance in the framework of statistical fusion and demonstrated that the combined sources of information (both statistical assessment and self-assessment) yielded statistically significant improvement over the methods considered separately. Conclusions: The authors present the first systematic characterization of self-assessed performance in manual labeling. The authors demonstrate that self-assessment and statistical fusion yield similar, but complementary, benefits for label fusion. Finally, the authors present a new theoretical basis for combining self-assessments with statistical label fusion.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Radiative Heating Uncertainty for Hyperbolic Earth Entry

This paper investigates the shock-layer radiative heating uncertainty for hyperbolic Earth entry, with the main focus being a Mars return. In Part I of this work, a baseline simulation approach involving the LAURA Navier-Stokes code with coupled ablation and radiation is presented, with the HARA radiation code being used for the radiation predictions. Flight cases representative of peak-heating Mars or asteroid return are de ned and the strong influence of coupled ablation and radiation on their aerothermodynamic environments are shown. Structural uncertainties inherent in the baseline simulations are identified, with turbulence modeling, precursor absorption, grid convergence, and radiation transport uncertainties combining for a +34% and ..24% structural uncertainty on the radiative heating. A parametric uncertainty analysis, which assumes interval uncertainties, is presented. This analysis accounts for uncertainties in the radiation models as well as heat of formation uncertainties in the flow field model. Discussions and references are provided to support the uncertainty range chosen for each parameter. A parametric uncertainty of +47.3% and -28.3% is computed for the stagnation-point radiative heating for the 15 km/s Mars-return case. A breakdown of the largest individual uncertainty contributors is presented, which includes C3 Swings cross-section, photoionization edge shift, and Opacity Project atomic lines. Combining the structural and parametric uncertainty components results in a total uncertainty of +81.3% and ..52.3% for the Mars-return case. In Part II, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to 1960s era shock-tube and constricted-arc experimental cases. It is shown that experiments contain shock layer temperatures and radiative ux values relevant to the Mars-return cases of present interest. Comparisons between the predictions and measurements, accounting for the uncertainty in both, are made for a range of experiments. A measure of comparison quality is de ned, which consists of the percent overlap of the predicted uncertainty bar with the corresponding measurement uncertainty bar. For nearly all cases, this percent overlap is greater than zero, and for most of the higher temperature cases (T >13,000 K) it is greater than 50%. These favorable comparisons provide evidence that the baseline computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are adequate for Mars-return simulations. In Part III, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to EAST shock-tube cases. These experimental cases contain wavelength dependent intensity measurements in a wavelength range that covers 60% of the radiative intensity for the 11 km/s, 5 m radius flight case studied in Part I. Comparisons between the predictions and EAST measurements are made for a range of experiments. The uncertainty analysis presented in Part I is applied to each prediction, and comparisons are made using the metrics defined in Part II. The agreement between predictions and measurements is excellent for velocities greater than 10.5 km/s. Both the wavelength dependent and wavelength integrated intensities agree within 30% for nearly all cases considered. This agreement provides confidence in the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I, and provides further evidence that this approach is adequate for Mars-return simulations. Part IV of this paper reviews existing experimental data that include the influence of massive ablation on radiative heating. It is concluded that this existing data is not sufficient for the present uncertainty analysis. Experiments to capture the influence of massive ablation on radiation are suggested as future work, along with further studies of the radiative precursor and improvements in the radiation properties of ablation products.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Temperature Dependent Raman Spectroscopic Study of the Fe Doped La{sub 0.67}Sr{sub 0.33}MnO{sub 3} Prepared Using Ball Milling Method

Polycrystalline samples of La{sub 0.67}Sr{sub 0.33}Mn{sub 0.65}Fe{sub 0.35}O{sub 3} (LSMFO) were synthesized using the standard ball mill method with different calcination temperatures ranging from 800 to 1100°C for 7 h. The phase purity of these samples was confirmed using X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. All samples were found to have rhombohedral crystal structure with R 3-bar c space group. The lattice parameters, cell volume, bond angle and bond length have been obtained using the Rietveld refinement by FullProf software. The average crystallite size calculated using the Debye-Scherrer formula was found between 27 and 60 nm. Surface morphology of the prepared samples has been examined using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). SEM images show the formation of well-arranged grain sizes distributed from 240 to 400 nm, much larger than one estimated using the Scherrer formula. All tiny particles are highly agglomerated with the increasing temperature and porosity decreases with increasing temperature. An analysis of the frequency and peak broadening of Raman modes as a function of temperature clearly shows the significant temperature effect on the A{sub 1g} and E{sub g} modes of LSMFO. The shifts and broadening of the A{sub 1g} and E{sub g} modes are discussed in light of the oxygen sublattice distortion. Our study shows the reduction in distortion with increasing calcination temperature, which suggests a decrease in the JT effect.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-609: Perturbation Effects of Pedicle Screws On Radiotherapy Dose Distributions

Purpose: Radiation therapy in conjunction with surgical implant fixation is a common combined treatment in case of bone metastases. However, metal implants generally used in orthopedic implants perturb radiation dose distributions. Carbon-Fiber Reinforced (CFR) PEEK material has been recently introduced for production of intramedullary screws and plates. Gold powder can be added to the CFR-PEEK material in order to enhance visibility of the screws during intraoperative imaging procedures. In this work, we investigated the perturbation effects of the pedicle screws made of CFR-PEEK, CFR-PEEK with added gold powder (CFR-PEEK-AU) and Titanium (Ti) on radiotherapy dose distributions. Methods: Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were performed using the EGSnrc code package for 6MV beams with 10×10 fields at SSD=100cm. By means of MC simulations, dose distributions around titanium, CFR- PEEK and CFR-PEEK-AU screws (manufactured by Carbo-Fix Orthopedics LTD, Israel) placed in a water phantom were calculated. The screw axis was either parallel or perpendicular to the beam axis. Dose perturbation (relative to dose in homogeneous water phantom) was assessed. Results: Maximum overdose due to backscatter was 10% for the Ti screws, 5% for the CFR-PEEK-AU screws and effectively zero for the CFR-PEEK screws. Maximum underdose due to attenuation was 25% for the Ti screws, 15% for the CFR-PEEK-AU screws and 5% for the CFR-PEEK screws. Conclusion: Titanium screws introduce the largest distortion on the radiation dose distribution. The gold powder added to the CFR-PEEK material improves visibility at the cost of increased dose perturbation. CFR-PEEK screws caused minimal alteration on the dose distribution. This can decrease possible over and underdose of adjacent tissue and thus favorably influence treatment efficiency. The use of such implants has potential clinical advantage in the treatment of neoplastic bone disease.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Calculating the dissociation chemistry and equation of state properties of materials [Slides]

Many experimental techniques are accurate enough to reveal glaring weaknesses in the material models used by physics codes to design them. This is requiring ever more stringent equation of state (EOS) development. Formerly, EOS models were built using limited gas gun shock data and a few general physics assumptions. With the ever increasing computer power available, we began using density functional theory (DFT) to approximate other EOS regimes such as the principal isentrope, critical point, and sometimes melt. With Sequoia, and only because of Sequoia’s capacity, we are now calculating a limited range, general EOS table and then deriving the above EOS properties based on that table, often on a shorter time frame and more thoroughly than we used to compute just the EOS sections listed above. The first project was to calculate a limited range EOS for CO 2 and specifically track the dissociated species present at each density and temperature. We would not see all of the possible species due to our small sample size and limited time, however, we should see the dominant species and general trends. This work was done to support a new, chemistry aware EOS model that is still under development at LANL. The second project was done for two reasons. The first is LANL and SNL are developing a new amorphous SiO 2 EOS for use in hydrocodes. There is extensive principal Hugoniot and isentrope data, but very little lower density data. There is also no real estimate of the critical point so we found the approximate value of that as well. The second reason for lower density SiO 2 is to test a new method for calculating the Hugoniot of porous materials. Because aerogel (low density SiO 2 ) is used extensively in many shock experiments, there was a large data set to compare with. As can be seen in the figure, the new method appears to work well and is tracking the porous Hugoniot within the experimental error bars (not shown). Finally, SNL is developing a new EOS for LiF because we were seeing discrepancies with the SESAME table. DFT has some issues calculating EOS values for LiF, so we will make some corrections, however, our first attempt appears to have very good results which confirm several experimentally seen properties, as seen on the previous slide.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

WHONDRS 48 Hour Diel Cycling Study at the Jordan River, Israel

This dataset is from a sampling campaign completed over the course of 48 hours to investigate the effects of groundwater pumping induced water level variation on aqueous chemistry, dissolved organic matter chemistry, and metabolic potential of microbial communities at the Jordan River, Israel. Filtered surface water (SW) and pore water (PP) samples were collected every three hours in August 2018. This dataset is one of seven companion datasets that were part of the WHONDRS 48 Hour Diel Cycling Study of freshwater rivers. All seven datasets are available on ESS-DIVE; they can be found by searching for WHONDRS 48 Hour.This package contains a variety of chemical and hydrologic variables. All data types are provided in a standard format. Basic geochemistry analyses (e.g., non-purgeable organic carbon concentration, cations, anions, SpC, pH) were conducted, standardized photos were taken, surface water hydrographs were collated from existing instrumentation, and extensive metadata were captured. Aqueous chemistry variables include USGS codes in the first portion of the variable name (e.g., 00940_Cl_mg_per_L). These codes allow for interoperability with USGS water quality data. In addition, samples were delivered to the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory) for high resolution characterization of dissolved organic matter via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). The data package contains instructions to process the FTICR data based on the user’s specific needs, and sample-level summary indices derived from the FTICR data will be added to the data package. Beyond the data in this data package, metagenomic data are being generated on associated microbial communities. When these data are available, the data package will be updated with information on accessing them. Please contact WHONDRS@pnnl.gov for more information. Please use the data package’s DOI to cite the data package. We ask that you email us at WHONDRS@pnnl.gov to let us know that you're using the data and acknowledge WHONDRS and the U.S. Department of Energy's Subsurface Biogeochemical Research program—which generously provides funding to WHONDRS—in your publications, proposals, presentations, etc. All data are free to be used for any purpose, such as for manuscripts, presentations, and grant proposals. There is no obligation to include WHONDRS members as co-authors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of SOLPS-ITER simulations with kinetic, fluid, and hybrid neutral models for JET-ILW low-confinement mode plasmas

For JET L-mode plasmas in low-recycling conditions (electron temperature at the outer strike point, T e,ot ≳ 30 eV ), SOLPS-ITER simulations agree within the error bars for the experimental profiles at the low-field side (LFS) divertor target. The peak Balmer-α (Dα ) emission in the LFS divertor agrees within the error bars of the KS3 filterscope diagnostic, but is approximately 30% lower than the peak value of the KT1 spectrometer. Simulations have been performed with fluid, kinetic, and hybrid models for the neutrals. The large fluid-kinetic discrepancies of more than a factor 2 are successfully corrected by using a hybrid fluid-kinetic approach, for which kinetic atoms are transferred to the fluid population when the local Knudsen number of the atom becomes smaller than a user-defined transition Knudsen number Kn t . The hybrid-kinetic discrepancies are limited to a few % for Kn t ≤ 100 . When increasing the upstream density to high-recycling conditions, at the onset of detachment ( T e,ot ≈ 5 eV ), the simulations predict more than a factor 2 lower peak ion saturation current to the LFS divertor than the experiments. Also the Dα emission is underpredicted with approximately a factor 2. For these high-recycling conditions, the fluid-kinetic discrepancies are limited to maximum 50%, which are again corrected by using the hybrid approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF FUEL SELECTION FOR A GASOLINE MULTI-MODE

In this study of fuels of different reactivities and their performance in a low-temperature combustion (LTC) engine. The engine was a 2.2L CRDI engine code D4HB provided by industry partner Hyundai America Technical Center inc. (HATCI). The engine was instrumented with in-cylinder pressure sensors allowing for monitoring of the combustion process. First, the engine was operated with standard US pump grade gasoline, Research Octane number (RON) 91 E10, to find initial operation conditions as well as control points of stable operation for daily checks on system conditions. Tested were 8 different fuel blends, the four base blends were provided by Phillips 66 (P66) with a RON value ranging from 60 to 91, and three other variations of these fuels were formulated by splash blending alcohols, iso-butanol, and ethanol, with the RON60 fuel and the final blend, was US RON91 E10 pump gasoline. Using these 8 fuels, the low load performance was analyzed allowing a selection of one of the fuels to be made to proceed with experimentation. To study the low load performance of each fuel, the load was decreased until combustion became too unstable to continue. This was done at 1500 rpm with all of the fuels. At 1200 rpm, the same methodology was applied, though all of the fuels were not tested, only the fuels which showed promise at 1500 rpm. Meaning that the lowest targeted load was achieved without any aid to the combustion process other than advancing combustion, increasing intake air temperature (IAT) for example was not done to maintain consistency across all fuels. The same methodology was applied at 800 rpm based upon the 1200 rpm results to see the ability of the engine to idle with the given fuel. It was found that fuel with a RON of 80 showed good low load performance while allowing for high load performance to be maintained. A blend of 25% Iso-Butanol and 75% RON 60 equated to a RON of 80 and showed good low load performance and showed peak indicated thermal efficiency (ITE) numbers of 46% at 17 bar indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) and 2200 rpm.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Single Synonymous Variant (c.354G>A [p.P118P]) in ADAMTS13 Confers Enhanced Specific Activity

Synonymous variants within coding regions may influence protein expression and function. We have previously reported increased protein expression levels ex vivo (~120% in comparison to wild-type) from a synonymous polymorphism variant, c.354G>A [p.P118P], of the ADAMTS13 gene, encoding a plasma protease responsible for von Willebrand Factor (VWF) degradation. In the current study, we investigated the potential mechanism(s) behind the increased protein expression levels from this variant and its effect on ADAMTS13 physico-chemical properties. Cell-free assays showed enhanced translation of the c.354G>A variant and the analysis of codon usage characteristics suggested that introduction of the frequently used codon/codon pair(s) may have been potentially responsible for this effect. Limited proteolysis, however, showed no substantial influence of altered translation on protein conformation. Analysis of post-translational modifications also showed no notable differences but identified three previously unreported glycosylation markers. Despite these similarities, p.P118P variant unexpectedly showed higher specific activity. Structural analysis using modeled interactions indicated that subtle conformational changes arising from altered translation kinetics could affect interactions between an exosite of ADAMTS13 and VWF resulting in altered specific activity. This report highlights how a single synonymous nucleotide variation can impact cellular expression and specific activity in the absence of measurable impact on protein structure.

Hunt, Ryan↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-D-204-07: Comparison of AAPM TG150 Draft Image Receptor Tests with Vendor Automated QC Tests for Five Mobile DR Units

Purpose: To determine the consistency of digital detector (DR) tests recommended by AAPM TG150 and tests provided by commercially available DirectView Total Quality Tool (TQT). Methods: The DR tests recommended by the TG150 Detector Subgroup[1] were performed on 4 new Carestream DRX-Revolution and one Carestream DRX1C retrofit of a GE AMX-4 that had been in service for three years. After detector calibration, flat-field images plus images of two bar patterns oriented parallel and perpendicular to the A-C axis, were acquired at conditions recommended by TG150. Raw images were harvested and then analyzed using a MATLAB software previously validated[2,3,4]. Data were analyzed using ROIs of two different dimensions: 1) 128 x 128 ROIs matching the detector electronics; and 2) 256 x 256 ROIs, each including 4 adjacent smaller ROIs. TG150 metrics from 128 x 128 ROIs were compared to TQT metrics, which are also obtained from 128 x 128 ROIs[5]. Results: The results show that both TG150 and TQT measurements were consistent among these detectors. Differences between TG150 and TQT values appear systematic. Compared with 128 x 128 ROIs, noise and SNR non-uniformity were lower with 256 x 256 ROIs, although signal non-uniformity was similar, indicating detectors were appropriately calibrated for gain and offset. MTF of the retrofit unit remained essentially the same between 2012 and 2015, but was inferior to the new units. The older generator focal spot is smaller (0.75mm vs. 1.2mm), and the SID for acquisition is 182cm as well, so focal spot dimensions cannot explain the difference. The difference in MTF may be secondary to differences in generator X-ray spectrum or by unannounced changes in detector architecture. Further investigation is needed. Conclusion: The study shows that both TG150 and TQT tests are consistent. The numerical value of some metrics are dependent on ROI size.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-FG-207B-09: Experimental Assessment of Noise and Spatial Resolution in Virtual Non-Contrast Dual-Energy CT Images Across Multiple Patient Sizes and CT Systems

Purpose: To investigate the noise and spatial resolution properties of virtual non-contrast (VNC) dual-energy CT images compared to true non-contrast (TNC) images across multiple patient sizes and CT systems. Methods: Torso-shaped water phantoms with lateral widths of 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 cm and a high resolution bar pattern phantom (Catphan CTP528) were scanned using 2nd and 3rd generation dual-source CT systems (Scanner A: Somatom Definition Flash, Scanner B: Somatom Force, Siemens Healthcare) in dual-energy scan mode with the same radiation dose for a given phantom size. Tube potentials of 80/Sn140 and 100/Sn140 on Scanner A and 80/Sn150, 90/Sn150 and 100/Sn150 on Scanner B were evaluated to examine the impact of spectral separation. Images were reconstructed using a medium sharp quantitative kernel (Qr40), 1.0-mm thickness, 1.0-mm interval and 20 cm field of view. Mixed images served as TNC images. VNC images were created using commercial software (Virtual Unenhanced, Syngo VIA Version VA30, Siemens Healthcare). The noise power spectrum (NPS), area under the NPS, peak frequency of the NPS and image noise were measured for every phantom size and tube potential combination in TNC and VNC images. Results were compared within and between CT systems. Results: Minimal shift in NPS peak frequencies was observed in VNC images compared to TNC for NPS having pronounced peaks. Image noise and area under the NPS were higher in VNC images compared to TNC images across all tube potentials and for scanner A compared to scanner B. Limiting spatial resolution was deemed to be identical between VNC and TNC images. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of image quality in VNC images demonstrated higher noise but equivalent spatial resolution compared to TNC images. Decreased noise was observed in the 3rd generation dual-source CT system for tube potential pairs having greater spectral separation. Dr. McCollough receives research support from Siemens Healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗