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At least 361 records · Page 20

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Historic Nuclear Cloud Measurement for Entrainment Parameter Determination

We evaluated the uncertainties associated with the entrainment parameters computed from nuclear cloud measurements taken during historic weapon testing campaigns. This evaluation found that variations in the way cloud heights and diameters were defined during the analysis of film records result in very large uncertainties in the entrainment parameters, severely limiting the utility of these data. For the measurements of atmospheric conditions at the time of the tests, the main sources of error are associated with the differences in the location and timing of the soundings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimization to Match Asteroid Energy Deposition Curves

An asteroid entering Earth's atmosphere deposits energy along its path due to thermal ablation and dissipative forces that can be measured by ground-based and spaceborne instruments. Inference of pre-entry asteroid properties and characterization of the atmospheric breakup is facilitated by using an analytic fragment-cloud model (FCM) in conjunction with a Genetic Algorithm (GA). This optimization technique is used to inversely solve for the asteroid's entry properties, such as diameter, density, strength, velocity, entry angle, and strength scaling, from simulations using FCM. The previous parameters' fitness evaluation involves minimizing error to ascertain the best match between the physics-based calculated energy deposition and the observed meteors. This steady-state GA provided sets of solutions agreeing with literature, such as the meteor from Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013 and Tagish Lake, Canada in 2000, which were used as case studies in order to validate the optimization routine. The assisted exploration and exploitation of this multi-dimensional search space enables inference and uncertainty analysis that can inform studies of near-Earth asteroids and consequently improve risk assessment.

Depositio↗

A one-dimensional model describing aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere. I - Physical processes and mathematical analogs. II - Sensitivity studies and comparison with observations

A new time-dependent one-dimensional model of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer is developed. The model treats atmospheric photochemistry and aerosol physics in detail and includes the interaction between gases and particles explicitly. It is shown that the numerical algorithms used in the model are quite precise. Sensitivity studies and comparison with observations are made. The simulated aerosol physics generates a particle layer with most of the observed properties. The sensitivity of the calculated properties to changes in a large number of aeronomic aerosol parameters is discussed in some detail. The sensitivity analysis reveals areas where the aerosol model is most uncertain. New observations are suggested that might help resolve important questions about the origin of the stratospheric aerosol layer.

Turco, R. P.↗

Statistical structure of convective periods derived from satellite ground based data

The documentation of characteristics of Vertical Atmospheric Soundings (VAS) through the use of statistical structure and correlation functions is presented. A measure of random error is also provided. Rawinsonde data from various periods is analyzed. Structure and correlation functions are used to compare VAS retrievals obtained using a physical algorithm with those from a regression technique. Results from both procedures are evaluated against those from a mesoscale network of rawinsonde stations. The parameters documented include temperature, mixing ratio, geopotential height, thickness, and precipitable water. Calculation are performed at several layers in the lower and upper troposphere.

Meyer, P. J.↗

Jump phenomena

The paper considers jump phenomena composed of large amplitude responses of nonlinear systems caused by small amplitude disturbances. Physical problems where large jumps in the solution amplitude are important features of the response are described, including snap buckling of elastic shells, chemical reactions leading to combustion and explosion, and long-term climatic changes of the earth's atmosphere. A new method of rational functions was then developed which consists of representing the solutions of the jump problems as rational functions of the small disturbance parameter; this method can solve jump problems explicitly.

Reiss, E. L.↗

Impact of Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Variables into the PSU/NCAR MM5

Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Improving Assimilated Global Data Sets using TMI Rainfall and Columnar Moisture Observations

A global analysis that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data products contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. In this study, we show that assimilating precipitation and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the large-scale circulation produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS). In particular, assimilating TMI rain improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW retrievals leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts in the tropics. Ensemble forecasts initialized with the GEOS analysis incorporating TMI rain rates and TPW yield smaller biases in tropical precipitation forecasts beyond 1 day and better 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of using high-quality space-borne rainfall and moisture observations to improve the quality of assimilated global data for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

SAEVe: A Long Duration Small Sat Class Venus Lander - Seismic and Atmospheric Exploration of Venus

NASA's science mission directorate has put increasing emphasis on innovative, smaller, and lower cost missions to achieve their science objectives. One example of this was the recent call by the Planetary Science Division for cube and small satellite concepts expected to cost $100M or less, not including launch and weighing less than 180kg. Over 100 proposals were submitted suggesting that indeed this is a size of mission worthy of being considered in future planning. Nineteen missions were selected for study, one being a long-lived Venus mission called SAEVe, for Seismic and Atmospheric Exploration of Venus. The science objectives and relevance of SAEVe include: Is Venus seismically active? What can we learn about its crust (thickness and composition) and its interior (lithosphere, mantle, and core)? What can be learned about its evolutionary history or about the planet / atmosphere interactions? SAEVe begins to address these science questions with simple, but capable, instrumented probes that can survive on the surface of Venus and take temporal measurements over months something never attempted before. The data returned will further our understanding of the solar system and Earth, and aid in meeting the NASA Science Plan goal to ascertain the content, origin, and evolution of the solar system and the chemical and physical processes in our solar system. SAEVe is delivered to Venus as a ride-along on another mission to Venus. Its two small probes are placed into the Venus atmosphere via a single Stardust-like entry capsule, are ejected at different times, free fall, and decelerate in the thickening atmosphere to touchdown under 8 m/s2 or less. The probes will begin taking measurements and transmitting important parameters at or near the surface and will focus on measurements like seismic activity, heat flux, wind speed and direction, basic chemical abundances, temperature, and pressure. At preset intervals, the probes acquire the science measurements and beam the data to the orbiting host spacecraft. SAEVe will serve as a highly capable precursor and pave the way for larger and more complex lander missions to explore Venus.

lander↗

Mineral Dust Cycle in the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry Model (Monarch) Version 2.0

We present the dust module in the Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0, a chemical weather prediction system that can be used for regional and global modeling at a range of resolutions. The representations of dust processes in MONARCH were upgraded with a focus on dust emission (emission parameterizations, entrainment thresholds, considerations of soil moisture and surface cover), lower boundary conditions (roughness, potential dust sources), and dust–radiation interactions. MONARCH now allows modeling of global and regional mineral dust cycles using fundamentally different paradigms, ranging from strongly simplified to physics-based parameterizations. We present a detailed description of these updates along with four global benchmark simulations, which use conceptually different dust emission parameterizations, and we evaluate the simulations against observations of dust optical depth. We determine key dust parameters, such as global annual emission/deposition flux, dust loading, dust optical depth, mass-extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and direct radiative effects. For dust-particle diameters up to 20 µm, the total annual dust emission and deposition fluxes obtained with our four experiments range between about 3500 and 6000 Tg, which largely depend upon differences in the emitted size distribution. Considering ellipsoidal particle shapes and dust refractive indices that account for size-resolved mineralogy, we estimate the global total (longwave and shortwave) dust direct radiative effect (DRE) at the surface to range between about −0.90 and −0.63 W m−2 and at the top of the atmosphere between −0.20 and −0.28 W m−2. Our evaluation demonstrates that MONARCH is able to reproduce key features of the spatiotemporal variability of the global dust cycle with important and insightful differences between the different configurations.

Dust cycle↗

Transitions between electron emission and gas breakdown mechanisms across length and pressure scales

This Perspective outlines theoretical, simulation, and experimental studies linking electron emission and gas breakdown. Many studies have investigated field emission-driven microscale gas breakdown, including recent reviews [Garner et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 808–824 (2020); Fu et al., Plasma Res. Express 2, 013001 (2020)]. This Perspective focuses on generalizing field emission-driven microscale gas breakdown to consider the contribution of other forms of electron emission, specifically thermionic and space-charge limited. Recent theoretical studies have unified thermionic, field, and space-charge limited emission with and without collisions to derive “nexuses” where the individual solutions match, indicating transitions in the mechanisms. Reducing device size to nanoscale at atmospheric pressure leads to a transition from field emission to space-charge limited emission for nitrogen at ~250 nm. This Perspective summarizes the derivation of these nexuses and future extensions. We next describe simulation and theoretical studies for field emission-driven microscale gas breakdown and highlight how the nexus theory may be integrated to account for temperature, space-charge, and pulse parameters. Finally, we summarize the development of optical techniques to assess microscale gas breakdown and recent nanoscale experiments at atmospheric pressure that suggest that space-charge may begin to contribute to field emission prior to gas breakdown. We highlight the combination of theory, simulation, and experiment to link electron emission and gas breakdown mechanisms across length, pressure, and temperature scales for applications that include vacuum electronics, pulsed power, and medicine.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The International VEGA "Venus-Halley" (1984-1986) Experiment: Description and Scientific Objectives

The Venus-Halley (Vega) project will provide a unique opportunity to combine a mission over Venus with a transfer flight to Halley's comet. This project is based on three research goals: (1) to study the surface of Venus; (2) to study the air circulation on Venus and its meteorological parameters; and (3) to study Halley's comet. The objective of the study of Halley's comet is to: determine the physical characteristics of its nucleus; define the structure and dynamics of the coma around the nucleus; define the gas composition near the nucleus; investigate the dust particle distribution as a function of mass at various distances from the nucleus; and investigate the solar wind interaction with the atmosphere and ionosphere of the comet.

Source record↗

Data catalog for JPL Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC)

The Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) archive at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory contains satellite data sets and ancillary in-situ data for the ocean sciences and global-change research to facilitate multidisciplinary use of satellite ocean data. Geophysical parameters available from the archive include sea-surface height, surface-wind vector, surface-wind speed, surface-wind stress vector, sea-surface temperature, atmospheric liquid water, integrated water vapor, phytoplankton pigment concentration, heat flux, and in-situ data. PO.DAAC is an element of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System and is the United States distribution site for TOPEX/POSEIDON data and metadata.

Digby, Susan↗

A Near-infrared Chemical Inventory of the Atmosphere of 55 Cancri e

We present high-resolution near-infrared spectra taken during eight transits of 55 Cancri e, a nearby low-density super-Earth with a short orbital period (<18 hr). While this exoplanet’s bulk density indicates a possible atmosphere, one has not been detected definitively. Our analysis relies on the Doppler cross-correlation technique, which takes advantage of the high spectral resolution and broad wavelength coverage of our data, to search for the thousands of absorption features from hydrogen-, carbon-, and nitrogen-rich molecular species in the planetary atmosphere. Although we are unable to detect an atmosphere around 55 Cancri e, we do place strong constraints on the levels of HCN, NH{sub 3}, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} that may be present. In particular, at a mean molecular weight of 5 amu, we can rule out the presence of HCN in the atmosphere down to a volume mixing ratio (VMR) of 0.02%, NH{sub 3} down to a VMR of 0.08%, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} down to a VMR of 1.0%. If the mean molecular weight is relaxed to 2 amu, we can rule out the presence of HCN, NH{sub 3}, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} down to VMRs of 0.001%, 0.0025%, and 0.08%, respectively. Our results reduce the parameter space of possible atmospheres consistent with the analysis of Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 observations by Tsiaras et al. and indicate that if 55 Cancri e harbors an atmosphere, it must have a high mean molecular weight or clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Recent results from NOvA

We present the most recent 3-flavor neutrino oscillation results from the NOvA long-baseline experiment, using a joint fit of $\nu_\mu \to \nu_\mu$, $\bar{\nu}_{\mu} \to \bar{\nu}_{\mu}$, $\nu_\mu \to \nu_{e}$, and $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}\to \bar{\nu}_{e}$ channels, and an accumulated exposure of $13.6 \times 10^{20}$ protons-on-target of neutrino beam and $12.5 \times 10^{20}$ protons-on-target of antineutrino beam. The best-fit values for the atmospheric parameters are $\Delta m^2_{32} = (2.41\pm0.07)\times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2$, $\sin^2\theta_{23} = 0.57^{+0.03}_{-0.04}$ and $\delta_{CP} = (0.82^{+0.27}_{-0.87}) \pi$. The data disfavor combinations of oscillation parameters that lead to large asymmetries between the rates of $\nu_{e}$ vs $\bar{\nu}_{e}$ appearance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗