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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Modeling and Analysis of DC Microgrids as Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This study proposes a method of predicting the influence of random load behavior on the dynamics of dc microgrids and distribution systems. This is accomplished by combining stochastic load models and deterministic microgrid models. Together, these elements constitute a stochastic hybrid system. The resulting model enables straightforward calculation of dynamic state moments, which are used to assess the probability of desirable operating conditions. Specific consideration is given to systems based on the dual active bridge (DAB) topology. Bounds are derived for the probability of zero voltage switching (ZVS) in DAB converters. A simple example is presented to demonstrate how these bounds may be used to improve ZVS performance as an optimization problem. In conclusion, predictions of state moment dynamics and ZVS probability assessments are verified through comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PAMTRA 1.0: the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer tool for simulating radiometer and radar measurements of the cloudy atmosphere

Forward models are a key tool to generate synthetic observations given knowledge of the atmospheric state. In this way, they are an integral part of inversion algorithms that aim to retrieve geophysical variables from observations or in data assimilation. Their application for the exploitation of the full information content of remote sensing observations becomes increasingly important when these are used to evaluate the performance of cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Herein, CRM profiles or fields provide the input to the forward model whose simulation results are subsequently compared to the observations. This paper introduces the freely available comprehensive microwave forward model PAMTRA (Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer), demonstrates its capabilities to simulate passive and active measurements across the microwave spectral region for upward- and downward-looking geometries, and illustrates how the forward simulations can be used to evaluate CRMs and to interpret measurements to improve our understanding of cloud processes. PAMTRA is unique as it treats passive and active radiative transfer (RT) in a consistent way with the passive forward model providing upwelling and downwelling polarized brightness temperatures and radiances for arbitrary observation angles. The active part is capable of simulating the full radar Doppler spectrum and its moments. PAMTRA is designed to be flexible with respect to instrument specifications and interfaces to many different formats of input and output, especially CRMs, spanning the range from bin-resolved microphysical output to one- and two-moment schemes, and to in situ measured hydrometeor properties. A specific highlight is the incorporation of the self-similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation (SSRGA) for both active and passive applications, which becomes especially important for the investigation of frozen hydrometeors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical Reactivity of In-Situ Lunar Dust for Biotoxicity Assessment

How does the chemical reactivity of in-situ lunar dust compare to Apollo samples currently stored in curation facilities here on Earth? Essential investigations of this question will help us to further mitigate exploration risks for future human explorers on the Moon and will also provide critical information for astrobiologists and space biologists using the Moon for scientific inquiry. Apollo 14 dust biotoxicity studies, carried out by the NASA Lunar Airborne Dust Toxicity Assessment Group (LADTAG), included numerous cellular and animal experiments. Intratracheal instillation and inhalation studies in rats both showed Apollo 14 dust to be intermediate in toxicity compared to low-tox titanium dusts and high-tox quartz dusts of similar particle sizes. The collective results were used in models to establish a safe exposure limit for astronauts. Although LADTAG took extensive steps to preserve what chemical reactivity may still have existed in the samples, it is simply unknown if they possessed true in-situ chemical reactivity or if that reactivity has decayed. Initial gas loss on collection and other alterations, and even intermittent exposure to Earth-normal conditions during subsequent decades of handling, obscure a forensic reconstruction of the initial state. Because a mineral dust’s chemical reactivity influences its biotoxicity, researchers have developed methods to “activate” lunar dust and simulants. Past studies that modeled impact processes and radiation in the lunar environment suggest that in-situ lunar dust is likely to be more chemically reactive than Earth-exposed samples. Because of these results, in-situ measurements are warranted. Since the lunar surface is heterogeneous, dust biotoxicity is expected to vary from site to site due to particle size, mineralogy, physical characteristics, degree of space weathering, and chemical reactivity. This circumstance dictates dust assessments at a suite of lunar sites enabled by CLPS opportunities. Dose, location, and duration of particle exposure will also affect biological responses. In-situ chemical reactivity measurements can inform cross-cutting collaborative research campaigns such as astrobiology studies examining regolith interactions with organisms and its ability to preserve chemical and structural biomarkers, as well as space biology investigations that examine regolith-microbe interactions relating to life support systems, plant growth, biomining, and development of regolith biocomposites.

Jon C Rask↗

Benchmark Modeling and Simulation of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 Using SAM

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) was a 400 MW thermal powered, oxide-fueled, liquid sodium cooled test reactor, built to assist development and testing of advanced fuels and materials for fast breeder reactors. In July 1986, a series of unprotected Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) transients were performed in FFTF as part of the Passive Safety Testing (PST) program. The LOFWOS Test #13, which was initiated at 50% power and 100% flow with the pump pony motors left off, has been chosen as a benchmark case by IAEA to support collaborative efforts within international partnerships on the validation of simulation tools and models in the area of sodium fast reactor passive safety in an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP), launched in October 2018. The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR safety analysis. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. To participate the IAEA CRP and enhance the SAM validation base for advanced reactor transient safety analysis, benchmark simulations of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 are performed using the SAM code. In this first phase of the validation effort, the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor system is the focus and the reactor kinetics is not considered in the SAM FFTF model. Instead, the results of Argonne’s neutronics calculations are directly used, including the power shape of the active core region and the power history during the transient. The simulation results of FFTF at steady state agreed well with the measured data from the test. During the transient, reasonably good agreement were also obtained. Future work to improve the model will focus on introducing the reactivity predictions into the model, as well as better understanding or resolving the current discrepancies with the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Task Analytic Models to Guide Analysis and Design: Use of the Operator Function Model to Represent Pilot-Autoflight System Mode Problems

Task-analytic models structure essential information about operator interaction with complex systems, in this case pilot interaction with the autoflight system. Such models serve two purposes: (1) they allow researchers and practitioners to understand pilots' actions; and (2) they provide a compact, computational representation needed to design 'intelligent' aids, e.g., displays, assistants, and training systems. This paper demonstrates the use of the operator function model to trace the process of mode engagements while a pilot is controlling an aircraft via the, autoflight system. The operator function model is a normative and nondeterministic model of how a well-trained, well-motivated operator manages multiple concurrent activities for effective real-time control. For each function, the model links the pilot's actions with the required information. Using the operator function model, this paper describes several mode engagement scenarios. These scenarios were observed and documented during a field study that focused on mode engagements and mode transitions during normal line operations. Data including time, ATC clearances, altitude, system states, and active modes and sub-modes, engagement of modes, were recorded during sixty-six flights. Using these data, seven prototypical mode engagement scenarios were extracted. One scenario details the decision of the crew to disengage a fully automatic mode in favor of a semi-automatic mode, and the consequences of this action. Another describes a mode error involving updating aircraft speed following the engagement of a speed submode. Other scenarios detail mode confusion at various phases of the flight. This analysis uses the operator function model to identify three aspects of mode engagement: (1) the progress of pilot-aircraft-autoflight system interaction; (2) control/display information required to perform mode management activities; and (3) the potential cause(s) of mode confusion. The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate the use of the operator functio model methodology to describe pilot-system interaction while engaging modes And monitoring the system, and (2) to initiate a discussion of how task-analytic models might inform design processes. While the operator function model is only one type of task-analytic representation, the hypothesis of this paper is that some type of task analytic structure is a prerequisite for the design of effective human-automation interaction.

Degani, Asaf↗

Guide to Determining Climate Zone by County: Building America and IECC 2021 Updates

This report describes the climate zone designations used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building America Program. The report aims to help residential building stakeholders identify the appropriate climate zone designation for each county in the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. Identifying the correct climate zone is important for many activities including residential construction projects, code compliance, energy analysis and modeling, and other analytical activities where climate zones impact the energy and moisture performance of residential buildings. This report supersedes the previous Building America publication: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County, published in 2010. This report reflects climate designations used by the International Code Council (ICC) in the 2021 versions of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), the International Residential Code (IRC), and other codes produced by ICC. The information provided here and associated data should be used for the most up-to-date information regarding climate zone designations in the United States.

2021 IECC↗

TRANSP-TGLF core predictive modeling of the JET DT baseline scenario

In recent years, an intense modeling activity has been focused on preparing and analyzing the second JET Deuterium–Tritium (D–T) experimental campaign DTE2. Among the numerous scientific outcomes of this campaign was the unique opportunity to test and validate the state of the art of modeling tools with fusion-relevant DT plasmas using the full metallic ITER-like wall in different scenarios. This work reports on the core predictive modeling of plasma density, electron and ion temperatures (n e , T e , T i ) performed using TRANSP (Pankin et al 2025 Comput. Phys. Commun. 312 109611) coupled with Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF)-SAT2 (Kinsey et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 055908), (Staebler et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116007) for the JET D–T baseline scenario (I p = 3.5 MA, q 95 = 3, β N < 2, with pellet pacing) (Garzotti et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 075011). The sensitivity to different input parameters, as the $\vec{E}$ x $\vec{B}$ shear parameterization and the values of the kinetic quantities at the boundary of the prediction domain (ρ = 0.85) has been assessed, identifying the confidence interval of the prediction results. In particular, the dependence of the electron density profile on the particle source parameters has been studied, identifying the ionization source as the main cause for the density gradient under-prediction obtained by TRANSP-TGLF, reported in (Hyun-Tae et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 112004).

JET↗

Understanding the Electronic Structure Evolution of Epitaxial LaNi1-xFexO3 Thin Films for Water Oxidation

Rare earth nickelates including LaNiO3 are promising catalysts for water electrolysis to produce oxygen gas. Recent studies report that Fe substitution for Ni can significantly enhance the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) activity of LaNiO3. However, the role of Fe in increasing activity remains ambiguous, with potential origins both structural and electronic in nature. Here, by utilizing a series of epitaxial LaNi1-xFexO3 thin films synthesized by oxygen-assisted molecular beam epitaxy, we report that Fe substitution tunes the oxidation state of Ni in LaNi1-xFexO3 and a volcano-like OER trend is observed with x = 0.375 being the most active. Spectroscopy and ab initio modeling reveal that the high-valent Fe3+? B-site cationic species strongly increases the transition metal (TM) 3d bandwidth via Ni-O-Fe bridges and enhances the TM 3d-O 2p hybridization, boosting the OER activity. Furthermore, pH-dependent electrochemical measurements suggest that the OER on LaNi1-xFexO3 involves a lattice oxygen-mediated mechanism.

LaNiO3, Fe substitution, charge transfer, lattice ↗

GeoMicro3D: A novel numerical model for simulating the reaction process and microstructure formation of alkali-activated slag

Highlights: • The GeoMicro3D model was innovatively developed for simulating the reaction process and microstructure formation of AAS. • In GeoMicro3D, the dissolution of slag and reactions of aqueous ions are fundamentally described in the local lattice cell. • A novel approach is proposed to speed up the nucleation simulations. • GeoMicro3D was implemented and verified with the relevant experimental data and thermodynamic calculation results. For the first time, this study developed a novel model, named GeoMicro3D, to simulate the reaction process and microstructure formation of alkali-activated slag. The GeoMicro3D model consists of four modules that are designed to simulate, respectively: (i) the initial spatial distribution of real-shape slag particles in alkaline activator, (ii) the dissolution of slag and diffusion of ions via the transition state theory and lattice Boltzmann method, respectively, (iii) the spatial distribution of reaction products using a nucleation probability theory, and (iv) the chemical reactions with thermodynamic modelling. Afterwards the GeoMicro3D model was implemented and verified. The simulation results were discussed and compared with the relevant experimental data and thermodynamic calculation results using GEMS. A good agreement was found in the comparisons, showing the strong simulation capability of GeoMicro3D.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Allosteric prediction via convolutional neural networks and protein structural and dynamical features

Allostery is the phenomenon whereby a binding event or covalent modification at one site in a protein modulates function at a distal site, thus changing a protein’s functional state. As such, it is a ubiquitous aspect of protein functional regulation. Computationally predicting allosteric states is important as part of the broader challenge of functional annotation, but it also has practical implications for drug development, as targeting an allosteric site often affords greater specificity compared with targeting an orthosteric site. This study introduces a machine learning approach to predict the allosteric functional state using the small G-protein KRas as the model system, due to its implication in many types of cancer and being well studied as a result with many x-ray crystallographic structures of KRas available with different mutations and ligands bound. Using structural and dynamical features that can be cast as images, namely interatomic distances, contact maps, covariance, and mutual information, supervised learning was performed using convolutional neural networks. Two pretrained convolutional neural network architectures, GoogLeNet and ResNet18, were fine-tuned to classify KRas into active or inactive states based on these features. Across training regimes, atomic contact maps emerged as the most effective structural feature, whereas linearized mutual information outperformed covariance in capturing dynamical correlations relevant to allostery. Models achieved significant validation accuracy, with atomic contact maps yielding up to 90% accuracy. In conclusion, the findings suggest that integrating global structural rearrangements and correlated motion patterns with deep learning can reliably predict protein allosteric states, offering a promising framework for understanding allosteric regulation and developing targeted therapeutics.

Rajeshwar T., Rajitha [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

Band-edge Engineering to Eliminate Radiation-Induced Defect States in Perovskite Scintillators

Under radiative environments such as extended hard X- or γ-rays, degradation of scintillation performance is often due to irradiation-induced defects. To overcome the effect of deleterious defects, novel design mitigation strategies are needed to identify and design more resilient materials. The potential for band-edge engineering to eliminate the effect of radiation-induced defect states in rare-earth-doped perovskite scintillators is explored, taking Ce 3+ -doped LuAlO 3 as a model material system, using density functional theory (DFT)-based DFT + U and hybrid Heyd–Scuseria–Ernzerhof (HSE) calculations. Furthermore, from spin-polarized hybrid HSE calculations, the Ce 3+ activator ground-state 4f position is determined to be 2.81 eV above the valence band maximum in LuAlO 3 . Except for the oxygen vacancies which have a deep level inside the band gap, all other radiation-induced defects in LuAlO 3 have shallow defect states or are outside the band gap, that is, relatively far away from either the 5d 1 or the 4f Ce 3+ levels. Finally, we examine the role of Ga doping at the Al site and found that LuGaO 3 has a band gap that is more than 2 eV smaller than that of LuAlO 3 . Specifically, the lowered conduction band edge envelopes the defect gap states, eliminating their potential impact on scintillation performance and providing direct theoretical evidence for how band-edge engineering could be applied to rare-earth-doped perovskite scintillators.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-29062-DND

After more than three decades of research, the role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in stratospheric ozone depletion is well established. However, important questions remain unanswered that have limited our understanding of PSC processes and how to accurately represent them in global models, calling into question our prognostic capabilities for future ozone loss in a changing climate. A more complete picture of PSC processes on vortex-wide scales is emerging from a suite of contemporary satellite missions: the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat (2002-2012), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura (2004-present), and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on CALIPSO (2006-present). These datasets have motivated numerous research activities that both extend and challenge our present knowledge of PSC processes and modeling capabilities. The SPARC PSC initiative was organized in January 2015 to address key questions related to PSCs and their representation in global models with the following main objectives: identify key PSC parameters required by global models; identify strengths and limitations of the PSC datasets; define a methodology to obtain the key PSC properties required by models from the observational datasets; develop a state of the art PSC climatology; and identify remaining open science questions. In this presentation, we describe the PSCi activity, key findings, and remaining open questions.

Michael C Pitts↗

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improved Soil Moisture Estimation and Detection of Irrigation Signal By Incorporating SMAP Soil Moisture Into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Soil Moisture↗

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

Understanding Dynamics and Thermodynamics of ENSO and Its Complexity Simulated by E3SM and Other Climate Models

Despite the seeming success of most state-of-the-art climate models in simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there is strong evidence that models achieve realistic levels of ENSO activity do so often for wrong reasons. This is owing to an often occurred near cancelation of large errors in terms of contributions to ENSO growth rate from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedback processes. Climate models remain deficient in simulating the observed ENSO’s spatial and temporal complexity that involves interplays of coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, interactions across multiple scales, nonlinear processes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean system, biases in mean sate and physical processes, and influences external to equatorial Pacific coupled ENSO dynamics. Our proposed research aims at advancing predictive and process-level understandings of ENSO simulated in E3SM and other climate models under current and future climate conditions with two main objectives: (i) better understanding the aforementioned broad range interactive processes and sources that control fundamental properties of ENSO in E3SM and CIMP6 outputs as well as in observational (reanalysis) data sets, using a hierarchical of coupled dynamical frameworks consisting of theoretical analysis, intermediate complexity modeling, and coupled dynamic diagnostics; (ii) to use this understanding to explore pathways towards improving E3SM’s capability of simulating ENSO and its complexity. More specifically, we will focus on four main thrusts of research: (1) ENSO’s dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks; (2) the across-scale interactions of ENSO with annual cycle and MJO/WWB/TIW (Madden Julian Oscillation/Westerly Wind Burst/Tropical Instability Wave) activity; (3) key nonlinear processes of ENSO involving atmospheric convective thresholds, nonlinear ocean dynamic heating, and thermocline outcropping; and (4) the impacts of climate mean-state biases/changes and perturbed physical processes on simulated ENSO and its complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗