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At least 361 records · Page 20

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Analysis of the Processes Affecting Rapid Near-Surface Water Vapor Increases during the Afternoon to Evening Transition in Oklahoma

Abstract This study used 20 years of Oklahoma Mesonet data to investigate the changes of near-surface water vapor mixing ratio qυ during the afternoon to evening transition (AET). Similar to past studies, increases in qυ are found to occur near sunset. However, the location, magnitude, and timing of the qυ maximum occurring during the AET are shown to be dependent on the seasonal growth and harvest of vegetation across Oklahoma in the spring and summer months. Particularly, the late spring harvest of winter wheat grown in Oklahoma appears to modify the relative contribution of local and nonlocal processes on qυ. By analyzing time series of qυ during the AET, it is found that the likelihood of a presunset qυ maximum is strongly dependent upon vegetation, soil moisture, wind speed, and cloud cover. Analysis also reveals that the increase in qυ during the AET can increase the parcel conditional instability despite the surface cooling produced by loss of insolation. Next to known changes in low-level wind shear, these changes in instability and moisture demonstrate new ways the AET can modify the presence of the key ingredients relevant to explaining the climatological increase in severe convective storm hazards around sunset.

Blumberg, W. G.↗

Measuring the Effects of Wake Steering With Nacelle-Mounted Scanning Lidar

In large wind plants, wakes from upwind turbines affect downwind turbines by reducing wind speeds and increasing turbulence. Wake steering may mitigate this effect by deflecting the wakes of upwind turbines away from downwind units. Here, we characterize the impact of wakes from yawed turbines at a commercial-scale wind plant under varying atmospheric and turbine operating conditions. Six months of nacelle-based lidar measurements were collected as part of a field campaign in 2019-2020 in the northern US Great Plains to test the effectiveness of wake steering. We separate these lidar scans by atmospheric stability and turbine operating condition to summarize how yawed wind turbine wakes vary with these input parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer. We summarize the impact of wake steering on various wake characteristics including velocity deficit, wake width, and wake center as retrieved from these lidar data. Yawed wakes have significantly different centerline characteristics compared to unyawed wakes, with large regions of meander in the mid wake region. Yawed wakes are also deflected farther than unyawed wakes in less turbulent conditions with velocity deficits persisting further downstream in stable atmospheric conditions. Overall, yawed wind turbine wakes are larger and wider in lower wind speed environments, and yawed wakes are deflected farther in less turbulent conditions, suggesting that wake steering is most effective in stable atmospheric stratification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Comparison of Adverse Meteorology Inputs for Emergency Management and Safety Basis Dispersion Modeling Applications at SRS

The MELCOR Accident Consequence Calculation System (MACCS), used for safety basis accident analyses at SRS, implements adjustment factors to consider the increased vertical turbulence associated with local surface roughness and the increased lateral turbulence associated with time-based plume meander. The two models used for SRS emergency planning radiological consequence assessment, i.e., Hotspot and Puff/Plume, currently do not have an option to input or apply diffusion adjustments for meander or surface roughness. Adverse meteorology conditions at SRS have been determined as E stability class and 1.3 meters per second wind speed for ground level releases. This is the input used for emergency planning models. Contrastingly safety basis analyses use a different input, representing adverse meteorology values as F stability class and wind speeds of 1.3 meters per second (for a ground level release). This results in an apparent discrepancy between the two approaches. In this report we document the differing modeling assumptions, discuss the logic behind each modeling approach used to represent local roughness and plume meander conditions, and numerically compare dispersion coefficients and concentration estimates obtained from each set of model inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CONDENSATION-EVAPORATION MODELING OF DRIFT FROM A MECHANICAL COOLING TOWER

Numerical studyfor investigatingthe phase change behavior of a drift from a mechanical draft cooling tower is presented. A k-ε turbulence model, discrete phase model, species transport equations, and a heat-mass exchange model are solved simultaneouslyto capture the heat and mass transfer effects of a drift condensing and evaporatingeffects. The simulation result is compared to an available real scale test data and its limitation is also discussed. A parametric study is carried out by varying the ambient dry bulb temperature, ambient relative humidity, wind speed, liquid droplet diameter, and the drift amount. It is found that by combining the evaporation and condensation models, a drift phase change phenomena is accurately depicted. A parametric study reveals that wind speed impact is affected by the ambient temperature and the number of liquid droplets and their size play a critical role in the phase change phen

Han, Kai↗

A digital twin based on OpenFAST linearizations for real-time load and fatigue estimation of land-based turbines

Monitoring a wind turbine requires intensive instrumentation, which would be too cost-prohibitive to deploy to an entire wind plant. This work presents a technique that uses readily available measurements to estimate signals that would otherwise require additional instrumentation. This study presents a digital twin concept with a focus on estimating wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and loads in the tower using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements. The model combines a linear state-space model obtained using OpenFAST linearizations, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The measurements are: top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The article extends previous work that derived the linear state-space model using a different method. The new implementation, based on OpenFAST linearization capability, allows for a systematic extension of the method to more states, inputs, outputs, and to the offshore environment. Results from the two methods are compared, and the validation is made with additional measurements using the GE 1.5-MW turbine located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory test site. Real-time damage equivalent loads of the tower bottom moment are estimated with an average accuracy of approximately 10%. Overall, the results from this proof of concept are encouraging, and further application of the model will be considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validation of Weather Forecasting Products

Meteorological modeling plays a pivotal role in operational safety and emergency response at the Savannah River Site (SRS). This study focuses on verifying the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) Version 4.3 through Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) analyses of temperature, dew point, and wind speed over a decade. Using observed data from SRS, we assessed RAMS' accuracy, revealing seasonal biases and error trends. Results indicate RAMS' strengths in mild weather conditions but challenges during seasonal extremes and wind speed predictions due to measurement disparities. Future research aims to expand verification to other models and parameters, advocating for enhanced forecasting accuracy crucial for safeguarding personnel and community well-being.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implementation of an Orographic Drag Scheme Considering Orographic Anisotropy in All Flow Directions in the Earth System Model CAS‐ESM 2.0

Abstract A reasonable representation of orographic anisotropy in earth system models is vital for improving weather and climate modeling. In this study, we implement the orographic drag scheme, including 3‐D orographic anisotropy (3D‐AFD), into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM 2.0). Three groups of simulations named sensitivity run, medium‐range forecast, and seasonal forecast respectively are conducted using the updated CAS‐ESM model and validated against station observation and reanalysis data. These simulations are run using the three schemes—3D‐AFD scheme, the 3D orographic anisotropy scheme for the eight‐direction (3D‐8x), and the 2D isotropic scheme (2D)—to compare their performance in CAS‐ESM 2.0. Sensitivity runs show that the 3D‐AFD provide more continuous transition of calculated drag as function of wind direction than the 3D‐8x, while the drag calculated using the 2D scheme show no variation with change of wind direction. Enhanced drag in the medium range and seasonal forecast using the updated CAS‐ESM alleviates part of the winter wind speed bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the cold bias over TP and the Siberian polar region. It is shown that the 3D‐AFD scheme alleviates more bias than that of the 3D‐8x scheme (by wind speed reduction of 1 ∼ 2 m/s and temperature of 1 ∼ 2 K) especially in the seasonal forecast. The results suggest that reasonable representation of the orographic anisotropy is important in climate modeling.

Xie, Jinbo↗

Simulations for Planning of Liquid Hydrogen Spill Test

In order to better understand the complex pooling and vaporization of a liquid hydrogen spill, Sandia National Laboratories is conducting a highly instrumented, controlled experiment inside their Shock Tube Facility. Simulations were run before the experiment to help with the planning of experimental conditions, including sensor placement and cross wind velocity. This paper describes the modeling used in this planning process and its main conclusions. Sierra Suite’s Fuego, an in-house computational fluid dynamics code, was used to simulate a RANS model of a liquid hydrogen spill with five crosswind velocities: 0.45, 0.89, 1.34, 1.79, and 2.24 m/s. Two pool sizes were considered: a diameter of 0.85 m and a diameter of 1.7. A grid resolution study was completed on the smaller pool size with a 1.34 m/s crosswind. A comparison of the length and height of the plume of flammable hydrogen vaporizing from the pool shows that the plume becomes longer and remains closer to the ground with increasing wind speed. The plume reaches the top of the facility only in the 0.45 m/s case. From these results, we concluded that it will be best for the spacing and location of the concentration sensors to be reconfigured for each wind speed during the experiment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

From Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements to Projections of Wind Turbine Blade Leading-Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading-edge erosion (LEE) is a cause of increased operation and maintenance costs and decreased annual energy production. Thus, detailed, site-specific quantification of likely erosion conditions are critically needed to inform wind plant owner/operator decisions regarding mitigation strategies. Estimating the damage potential at a wind plant site requires accurate measurement of precipitation intensity, phase, droplet size distributions, wind speeds and their joint statistics. The current work quantifies the effect of disdrometer type on the characterization of LEE potential at a site in the US Southern Great Plains. using observations from three co-located disdrometers (an optical, an impact and a video disdrometer), along with hub-height wind-speed observations from a Doppler lidar and two LEE models: a kinetic energy model and the Springer model. Estimates of total kinetic energy of hydrometeor impacts over the four-year study period vary by as much as 38%, and coating lifetime derived from accumulated distance-to-failure estimates from the Springer model differ by an even greater amount, depending on disdrometer type. Damage potential at this site is concentrated in time, with 50% of impact kinetic energy occurring in 6–12 h per year, depending on which set of disdrometer observations is used. Rotor-speed curtailment during the most erosive 0.1–0.2% of 10 min periods is found to increase blade lifetimes and lead to the lowest levelized cost of energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical meteorological patterns and their impact on the energy demand of tall buildings

In accordance with the developing economy and growing population, an increasing number of tall buildings have been constructed over the last 20 years. In 2017, there were 144 new buildings worldwide that were 200 m or greater in height; 50% of these buildings were in China. Due to the vertical gradient impact of meteorological parameters, the energy performance of tall buildings differs from that of general buildings. Few studies exist on vertical meteorological changes using measured data at different heights. Most studies on dynamic energy simulation simulate meteorological parameters using models. This study explores vertical meteorological patterns using hourly dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data from 2007 to 2017 for a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing. The temperature decreased significantly with increasing altitude (~0.9 °C per 100 m), while the daily temperature difference decreased with increasing altitude. The absolute humidity did not change significantly with height. The wind speed increased with altitude at approximately 2 m/s per 100 m. The building simulation showed that the annual heating load at a height of 320 m increased by 85% from that at 8 m; the annual cooling load decreased by 20%. Such significant differences in thermal loads for 300-m-tall buildings confirm the need to consider vertical meteorological differences in building performance simulations for tall buildings. A greater number of measurement points at different heights improve the simulation accuracy. Finally, guidance on selecting the heights for vertical metrological measurements is provided based on the influences of building thermal loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗

UAE6 - Wind Tunnel Tests Data - UAE6 - Sequence M - Raw Data

Sequence M: Transition Fixed (P) Test sequence M used an upwind, rigid turbine with a 0° cone angle. The wind speed ranged from 5 m/s to 15 m/s. Yaw angles ranged from 0° to 90°. The blade tip pitch was 3°. The rotor rotated at 72 RPM. Blade pressure measurements were collected. The five-hole probes were removed and the plugs were installed. Plastic tape 0.03-mm-thick was used to smooth the interface between the plugs and the blade. The teeter dampers were replaced with rigid links, and these two channels were flagged as not applicable by setting the measured values in the data file to –99999.99 Nm. The teeter link load cell was pre-tensioned to 40,000 N. During post-processing, the probe channels were set to read –99999.99. Zigzag tape was installed near the leading edge of the instrumented blade on both the upper and lower surfaces as described in Appendix K. In addition to the standard 30-second campaigns, yaw sweeps were done at 7 m/s and 10 m/s. These 90-second campaigns were collected while the yaw drive rotated the turbine 90° at a rate of 1°/s. The file names for these campaigns use the letter designation, followed by two digits for wind speed, followed by YSU, followed by 00.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Search for Infrasound Signals in InSight Data Using Coupled Pressure/Ground Deformation Methods

The unprecedented quality and sampling rate of seismometer and pressure sensors of the InSight Mars mission allow us to investigate infrasound through its pressure and ground deformation signals. This study focuses on compliance effects induced by acoustic waves propagating almost horizontally close to the surface. The compliance of acoustic waves is first estimated using the compliance estimates from pressure perturbations moving at wind speed. Then, a marker of compliance events is used to detect events of ground deformation induced by pressure variations, in three frequency bands from 0.4 to 3.2 Hz, from InSight sol 180 to 690. Additional selection criteria are imposed on the detected events to focus on acoustic waves and to remove various noise sources (e.g., wind effects or seismometer artifacts). After an automated selection, the visual inspection of the records allows us to validate two infrasound candidates that cannot be related to pressure perturbations moving at wind speed nor to known noise sources. For our highest quality infrasound candidate, the relation between this event and a convective vortex occuring 10 s later is tested. The azimuth of the vortex position at the time of infrasound detection is not consistent with the arrival azimuth of the suspected infrasound inferred from the polarization of seismometer records, thus the link between these two phenomena cannot be demonstrated. Further investigations would require a better understanding of wind-related noise impacting InSight sensors and of the effects of lateral variations of subsurface mechanical properties on the ground deformations induced by atmospheric pressure variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

UAE6 - Wind Tunnel Tests Data - UAE6 - Sequence S - Raw Data

Sequences S, T, and U: Upwind, No Probes (F); Upwind 2° Pitch (F); Upwind 4° Pitch (F) This test sequence used an upwind, rigid turbine with a 0° cone angle. The wind speed ranged from 5 m/s to 25 m/s. Yaw angles of 0° to 180° were achieved for Sequence S, but the yaw angle remained at 0° for Sequences T and U. The blade tip pitch was 3° for Sequence S, 2° for Sequence T, and 4° for Sequence U. These three sequences were interleaved during testing because the pitch angle change was easily made by the turbine operator. The rotor rotated at 72 RPM. Blade pressure measurements were collected. The five-hole probes were removed and the plugs were installed. Plastic tape 0.03-mm-thick was used to smooth the interface between the plugs and the blade. The teeter dampers were replaced with rigid links, and these two channels were flagged as not applicable by setting the measured values in the data file to -99999.99 Nm. The teeter link load cell was pre-tensioned to 40,000 N. During post-processing, the probe channels were set to read -99999.99. In addition to the standard 30-second campaigns, yaw sweeps were done at 7 m/s and 10 m/s for the Sequence S configuration. These 6-minute campaigns were collected while the yaw drive rotated the turbine 360° at a rate of 1°/s. The file names for these campaigns use the letter designation, followed by two digits for wind speed, followed by YSU, followed by 00.

17 WIND ENERGY↗