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NASA NTRS1992

ERS-1 scatterometer calibration and validation activities at ECMWF. B: From radar backscatter characteristics to wind vector solutions

Calibration and validation activities for the ERS-1 scatterometer were carried out at ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast) complementary to the 'Haltenbanken' field campaign off the coast of Norway. At a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) center a wealth of verifying data is available both in time and space. This data is used to redefine the wind retrieval procedure given the instrumental characteristics. It was found that a maximum likelihood estimation procedure to obtain the coefficients of a reformulated sigma deg to wind relationship should use radar measurements in logarithmic rather than physical space, and use winds as the wind components rather than wind speed and direction. Doing this, a much more accurate transfer function than the one currently operated by ESA was derived. Sigma deg measurement space shows no signature of a separation in an upwind solution cone and a downwind solution cone. As such signature was anticipated in ESA's wind direction ambiguity removal algorithm, reconsideration of the procedure is necessary. Despite the fact that revisions have to be made in the process of wind retrieval; a grid potential is shown for scatterometry in meteorology and climatology.

Stoffelen, AD↗
NASA NTRS2019

Five Decades Observing Earth's Atmospheric Trace Gases Using Ultraviolet and Visible Backscatter Solar Radiation from Space

Over the last five decades, Earth’s atmosphere has been extensively monitored from space using different spectral ranges. Early efforts were directed at improving weather forecasts with the first meteorological satellites launched in the 1960s. Soon thereafter, the intersection between weather, climate and atmospheric chemistry led to the observation of atmospheric composition from space. During the 1970s the Nimbus satellite program started regular monitoring of ozone integrated columns and water vapor profiles using the Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrometer, the Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer and the Satellite Infrared Spectrometer instruments. Five decades after these pioneer efforts, continuous progress in instrument design, and retrieval techniques allow researchers to monitor tropospheric concentrations of a wide range of species with implications for air quality, climate and weather. The time line of historic, present and future space-borne instruments measuring ultraviolet and visible backscattered solar radiation designed to quantify atmospheric trace gases is presented. We describe the instruments technological evolution and the basic concepts of retrieval theory. We include a review of algorithms developed for ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde, bromine monoxide, water vapor and glyoxal, a selection of studies using these algorithms, the challenges they face and how these challenges can be addressed. The paper ends by providing insights on the opportunities that new instruments will bring to the atmospheric chemistry, weather and air quality communities and how to address the pressing need for long-term, inter-calibrated data records necessary to monitor the response of the atmosphere to rapidly changing ecosystems.

Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer↗
NASA NTRS2003

Trajectory-Based Performance Assessment for Aviation Weather Information

Based on an analysis of aviation decision-makers' time-related weather information needs, an abstraction of the aviation weather decision task was developed, that involves 4-D intersection testing between aircraft trajectory hypertubes and hazardous weather hypervolumes. The framework builds on the hypothesis that hazardous meteorological fields can be simplified using discrete boundaries of surrogate threat attributes. The abstractions developed in the framework may be useful in studying how to improve the performance of weather forecasts from the trajectory-centric perspective, as well as for developing useful visualization techniques of weather information.

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Energy Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA

Components of the atmospheric energy budget from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979-2005 and compared with previous estimates, in situ observations, and contemporary reanalyses. Closure of the energy budget is reflected by the analysis increments term, which results from virtual enthalpy and latent heating contributions and averages -11 W/sq m over the north polar cap and -22 W/sq m over the south polar cap. Total energy tendency and energy convergence terms from MERRA agree closely with previous study for northern high latitudes but convergence exceeds previous estimates for the south polar cap by 46 percent. Discrepancies with the Southern Hemisphere transport are largest in autumn and may be related to differences in topography with earlier reanalyses. For the Arctic, differences between MERRA and other sources in TOA and surface radiative fluxes maximize in May. These differences are concurrent with the largest discrepancies between MERRA parameterized and observed surface albedo. For May, in situ observations of the upwelling shortwave flux in the Arctic are 80 W/sq m larger than MERRA, while the MERRA downwelling longwave flux is underestimated by 12 W/sq m throughout the year. Over grounded ice sheets, the annual mean net surface energy flux in MERRA is erroneously non-zero. Contemporary reanalyses from the Climate Forecast Center (CFSR) and the Interim Re-Analyses of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I) are found to have better surface parameterizations, however these collections are also found to have significant discrepancies with observed surface and TOA energy fluxes. Discrepancies among available reanalyses underscore the challenge of reproducing credible estimates of the atmospheric energy budget in polar regions.

Cullather, Richard I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Improved weather information and aviation

The major impacts of weather forecasts on aviation are reviewed. Topics discussed include: (1) present and projected structure of American aviation, (2) weather problems considered particularly important for aviation, (3) projected needs for improved weather information by aviators, (4) safety and economics, and (5) future studies utilizing satellite meteorology.

Hallahan, K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Expanding the Operational Use of Total Lightning Ahead of GOES-R

NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has been transitioning real‐time total lightning observations from ground‐based lightning mapping arrays since 2003. This initial effort was with the local Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) that could use the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). These early collaborations established a strong interest in the use of total lightning for WFO operations. In particular the focus started with warning decision support, but has since expanded to include impact‐based decision support and lightning safety. SPoRT has used its experience to establish connections with new lightning mapping arrays as they become available. The GOES‐R / JPSS Visiting Scientist Program has enabled SPoRT to conduct visits to new partners and expand the number of operational users with access to total lightning observations. In early 2014, SPoRT conducted the most recent visiting scientist trips to meet with forecast offices that will used the Colorado, Houston, and Langmuir Lab (New Mexico) lightning mapping arrays. In addition, SPoRT met with the corresponding Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) to expand collaborations with the aviation community. These visits were an opportunity to learn about the forecast needs of each office visited as well as to provide on‐site training for the use of total lightning, setting the stage for a real‐time assessment during May‐July 2014. With five lightning mapping arrays covering multiple geographic locations, the 2014 assessment has demonstrated numerous uses of total lightning in varying situations. Several highlights include a much broader use of total lightning for impact‐based decision support ranging from airport weather warnings, supporting fire crews, and protecting large outdoor events. The inclusion of the CWSUs has broadened the operational scope of total lightning, demonstrating how these data can support air traffic management, particularly in the Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities (TRACON) region around an airport. These collaborations continue to demonstrate, from the operational perspective, the utility of total lightning and the importance of continued training and preparation in advance of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

GLM↗
NASA NTRS2003

Integrated Human Centered Systems Analysis for Aircraft Separation from Icing Conditions

This document contains five papers on coping with ice formation during the operation of aircraft. The first paper uses a pilot survey to identify the desired attributes of future information systems for aircraft icing. The second paper investigates the influence of potential remote ice-detection system features on pilot decision making. The third paper investigates the effectiveness of aviation weather forecasting along aircraft trajectories. The fourth paper applied a human-centered systems analysis to the adverse aircraft weather encounter problem in order to identify desirable functions of weather and icing information. The objective of the fifth paper, a viewgraph presentation, is to propose means to improve aviation weather information, training, and procedures based on a human-centered systems approach.

Hansman, Robert John↗
NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Weather Routes: Two Years of Operational Testing at American Airlines

The Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) tool continuously analyzes active flights in en-route airspace and finds simple route corrections to achieve more time- and fuel-efficient routes around convective weather. A strong partnership between NASA, American Airlines (AA), and the Federal Aviation Administration has enabled testing of DWR in real-world air traffic operations. NASA and AA have been conducting a trial of DWR at AA’s Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, Texas since July 2012. This paper describes test results based on AA’s use of DWR for their flights in and around Fort Worth Center (ZFW). Results indicate an actual savings of 3,290 flying minutes for 526 AA revenue flights from January 2013 through September 2014. Of these, 48 flights each indicate a savings of 15 minutes or more. Potential savings for all flights in ZFW airspace, corrected for savings flights achieve today through normal pilot requests and controller clearances, is about 100,000 flying minutes for 15,000 flights in 2013. Results indicate that AA flights with DWR in use realize about 20 percent more savings than non-AA flights. A weather forecast analysis examines the extent to which DWR routes rated acceptable by AA users remain clear of downstream weather. A sector congestion analysis indicates congestion could be reduced 19-38 percent if all flights fly DWR routes rather than nominal weather-avoidance routes.

Trajectory Automation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Checks on the Radiometric and Spatial Calibration of AIRS In-Orbit

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002 and is currently fully operational. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 um with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS was designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast and improved parameterization of climate processes. Currently the AIRS Level 1B Radiance Products are assimilated by NWP centers worldwide and have shown considerable forecast improvement. Although the calibration of AIRS (< 200 mK 3 sigma) is sufficient for data assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, long term trends of Earth’s climate require radiances with stability approaching 10 mK/year, and absolute accuracies better than 100 mK. This investigation uses views of space during roll maneuvers of the Aqua spacecraft to calibrate the mirror emission (one of the largest error sources for AIRS) and reduce the residual errors in cold scenes. We also present results of a secondary study that uses MODIS data to determine the alignment of the AIRS boresight. In this study we match AIRS and MODIS data and iterate on the assumed boresight to find the minimum difference in signal. In this way we are able to confirm the boresight projections determined shortly after launch.

Pagano, Thomas S.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Transport models for numerical forecast

The explosive growth of computing power, coupled with scientific and technological emphasis on a national scale, has led to significant major advances in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) during the last two decades. There are about half a dozen major centers around the world running global NWP models operationally. Many more countries have operational hemispheric or limited-area models which provide weather forecasts. The global models typically have several hundred kilometer resolution, while the limited-area models usually have horizontal spacing of 50 to 100 km. Given the pace of burgeoning growth in this area, it seems warranted to occasionally take an overview of aspects of the field common to all modelers. Here, a brief look is taken at the nature of subgrid scale turbulence transport parameterization, and some of the difficulties pertaining thereto, with particular emphasis on operational NWP models.

Burk, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

Gelaro, Ron↗
NASA NTRS1980

A short-range objective nocturnal temperature forecasting model

A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular location and receive an hour-by-hour prediction of surface and air temperatures for that location for an entire night. The user has the option of putting in his own estimates of wind speeds and background sky radiation which are treated as independent variables. An analysis of 141 test runs show that 57.4% of the time the model predicts to within 1 C for the best cases and to within 3 C for 98.0% of all cases.

Sutherland, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

STS-114: Discovery L-3 Countdown Status Briefing

Bruce Buckingham of NASA Public Affair hosted this briefing. Jeff Spaulding, NASA Test Director; Scott Higgenbotham, STS-114 Payload-Mission Manager; Cathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer were present. Jeff specifically noted that the mission represents NASA's first step towards fulfilling the President's visions of returning to the Moon and then on to Mars and beyond. Scott reports that the 28,000 pounds of ISS hardware that is in the payload bay of the Discovery is ready to go, and completed final close outs. Cathy mentioned that Hurricane Dennis is not a threat, however, main threat of inland thunderstorms would result to 30% weather prohibiting launch. Cathy further gave current weather forecast supported with charts: the Launch Forecast, Tanking Forecast, SRB (Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) Forecast, CONUS and TAL Launch Sites Forecast and with 24 hours and 48 hours turn around plan. Final inspections, ice formation, ice inspection, effect of weather conditions to the external tank, delays and contingencies were some of the topics covered with the News Media.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗