Cheat Water Resources: Assessing Climatology and Land Cover Trends and Evaluating Flood Risk of the Cheat River
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Bhutan is vulnerable to climate fluctuations that can affect vegetation phenology patterns. Changes in the climate have raised concerns from local farmers about altered growing seasons. In response, the DEVELOP team assessed annual vegetation phenology trends across Bhutan from 1981-2014 by comparing vegetation phenology-derived data and meteorological data. The project assessed phenology change using Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. We also used Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation data and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) temperature data to assess climate trends in the country. The team assessed VIP phenology data for 1981-2014 to assess trends for the start of season, day of peak, and length of season. For the main growing season, the results indicated that the start of season and day of peak were delayed, while the length of season increased by 22 days. Analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the early 1980s to present indicted that Bhutan’s temperature has become warmer and precipitation has increased. Satellite-based precipitation and temperature data were compared to in situ precipitation and temperature data, yielding high correlations for both precipitation (R=0.85) and temperature (R=0.9). The project results and methods were shared with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) to help assess climate change impacts in Bhutan.
Native plant species in the Colorado River Basin are currently threatened by non-native species that are changing resource competition dynamics. Monitoring native species is essential for understanding changes in plant health throughout the year as well as how species’ distributions change inter-annually. However, current monitoring of species is limited to local efforts and cannot be efficiently conducted across more extensive regions of the basin. Project partners, including the USA National Phenology Network, United States Geological Survey, and Educating Children Outdoors, provided data and on-the-ground expertise to assist the project. NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) from the European Space Agency, provided remote sensing data that covers the large spatial extent of the basin. This study combined both data sources over the study period of 2013 – 2019 and explored the relationship between on-the-ground phenology observations and remotely sensed phenology signals. The team found that pairing the datasets required spatial coordinates to be accurately logged and that it was necessary to have consistent observations throughout the year by citizen scientists. The team found promising relationships between phenology observations and the two vegetation indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), when study locations were in an area with a high proportion of vegetation within a satellite pixel. The results and methods outlined in this study create new opportunities to leverage remote sensing alongside citizen science data for widespread monitoring of non-native species.
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