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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Leverage demand-side policies for energy security

Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). Here, we determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient. Energy demand links more directly than supply to the satisfaction of critical social functions and human well-being that are at the core of energy security. Yet, demand-side perspectives tend to be neglected or underrepresented in analysis and policy debates on energy security. Factors that contribute to this supply-side bias include the traditional sectoral organization of industries and policy institutions along fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and energy forms (electric utilities) as well as the decentralized and multivaried activities characteristic of energy demand (from vehicles to household appliances to manufacturing and more), which leads to a multitude of actors and institutional fragmentation. The basic fundamentals of energy systems and markets, where demand and supply are intricately linked, have also not yet risen from vague awareness to a central organizing principle among policy-makers for structuring the energy security discourse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Diagnosis of Data Integrity Attacks in Solar Farms Based on Multilayer Long Short-Term Memory Network

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming more vulnerable to cyber threats. In response to this emerging concern, developing cyber-secure power electronics converters has received increased attention from the IEEE Power Electronics Society that recently launched a cyber-physical-security initiative. Here this letter proposes a deep sequence learning based diagnosis solution for data integrity attacks on PV systems in smart grids, including dc–dc and dc–ac converters. The multilayer long short-term memory networks are used to leverage time-series electric waveform data from current and voltage sensors in PV systems. The proposed method has been evaluated in a PV smart grid benchmark model with extensive quantitative analysis. As a comparison, we have evaluated classic data-driven methods, including K-nearest neighbor, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and convolutional neural network. Comparison results verify performances of the proposed method for detection and diagnosis of various data integrity attacks on PV systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber Threat Landscape for Distribution Systems

INL cyber analysts will present an overview of the current threat landscape for distribution systems. We will begin with examples of known attacks that have occurred recently to motivate the threat analysis and mitigation discussed in the remainder of the presentation. Examples may include the attacks affecting wind plants in Europe in Spring 2022, ransomware attacks on city utilities and commercial distribution systems, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) including the attacks on Ukrainian electric system in 2015 and 2016, as well as more recent evidence of other APT activity. We will present the end-to-end attack paths and discuss the various attacker skills, financing, motivations, and access that contributed to these attacks. In the second part of this presentation, we will discuss mitigating the cyber threats for distribution systems. We will discuss recent publicly disclosed vulnerabilities and explain their relevant context for distribution system security. Likely attacks to affect distribution systems, such as denial-of-service (DoS), ransomware, edge-device compromise, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) will be described. In addition to an overview of these kinds of attacks, we will provide examples of the various ways in which these attacks can start and what systems they can affect. Simple, cost-effective counter-measures to these attacks will be discussed and we will emphasize how these mitigations can reduce threats when properly applied and maintained.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ambient-Pressure Chemical Recycling of Thermoset Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymers via Low-Temperature Solvolysis: Techno-Economic and Life-Cycle Assessment

Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) waste is rapidly accumulating, with global volumes projected to exceed 500,000 tons annually by 2050. Virgin carbon fiber production is extremely energy- and cost-intensive, and growing demand has intensified supply-chain vulnerabilities associated with precursor availability and reliance on critical materials. Scalable recycling technologies therefore offer not only environmental benefits but also opportunities to reduce material costs and strengthen domestic composite supply chains. This study introduces an efficient, mild chemical recycling method for epoxy-amine CFRPs, utilizing acetic acid (80 wt%) and zinc acetate (1 wt%) at atmospheric pressure and low temperature (~110 °C). The solvolysis process preserves residual resin (~40%) on recycled carbon fibers (rCF), enhancing interfacial bonding in remanufactured composite materials. Recycled fibers retain ~90% of their mechanical properties, and recovered oligomers show potential for reuse in epoxy formulations, supporting material circularity. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) confirm the scalability and sustainability of this process.

Recycling CFRP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrically Powered High-Salinity Brine Separation Using Dimethyl Ether

Dewatering highly saline aqueous streams, from mining and geothermal leachates to industrial wastewater, is essential for effective resource recovery and safe disposal. Membraneless water extraction (MWE) uses a low-polarity solvent to separate water from concentrated aqueous solutions. In this study, we design a new MWE that uses dimethyl ether (DME) to selectively extract water from high-salinity brines, leveraging the volatility of DME to achieve rapid solvent recovery. By separating water and dissolved salts at a liquid–liquid interface, MWE minimizes the deleterious effects of scaling on vulnerable membrane and heat exchanger surfaces, reducing the need for extensive pretreatment and expensive materials. We begin by developing a computational framework for a multistage counterflow liquid–liquid contactor, which extracts water into DME, coupled with a multistage solvent regenerator that uses vapor compression to efficiently separate the desalinated water from the DME extractant. Excess Gibbs free energy and equation of state frameworks are used to model fluid phase equilibria in water–DME–sodium chloride (NaCl) mixtures, with interaction parameters estimated from experimental data. Incorporating equilibrium calculations into a system-scale computational model, we examine the performance of MWE using DME for the first time. Our analysis demonstrates that MWE can concentrate seawater desalination brine (>1.0 mol NaCl kg –1 ) to zero-liquid discharge salinities, with an energy consumption of under 50 kW h per m 3 of water extracted with a solvent recovery ratio greater than 99.9%. We highlight the importance of staging the vapor compression process to simultaneously minimize energy consumption while enabling brine concentration and product water solvent contamination. Finally, the thermodynamic framework developed here allows for the robust evaluation of new MWE solvents and systems for critical brine concentration and fractional precipitation applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microgrid Conceptual Design Guidebook | 2022

This guide is meant to assist communities – from residents to energy experts to decision makers – in developing a conceptual microgrid design that meets site-specific energy resilience goals. Using the framework described in this guidebook, stakeholders can come together and start to quantify site-specific vulnerabilities, identify the most significant risks to delivery of electricity, and establish electric outage tolerances across the community. In addition to establishing minimum service needs, this framework encourages communities to consider broader sustainability goals and policy constraints and begin to estimate up-front costs associated with the installation of alternative microgrid solutions. The framework guides a community through data collection and a high-level assessment of its needs, constraints, and priorities, prior to engaging engineers, vendors, and contractors. The first sections of this guidebook provide a high-level primer on electric systems. The latter sections include guidance for step-by-step data gathering and analysis of site conditions. The ultimate product resulting from the stepwise approach is a conceptual microgrid design. A conceptual design is defined as an initial design (10%-20% complete) that considers the specific threats, needs, limitations, and investment options for a given location. Going through this exercise and developing the conceptual microgrid design as a community ensures the same community members who will ultimately live with the solution are the developers of its foundational design. Often, these are also the very same people who understand system tolerances and needs the best and are therefore the ideal candidates for establishing these criteria. Especially when it comes to evaluating critical infrastructure, it is the community that best understands the most critical services. The framework is intended to facilitate a systematic approach to planning for resilience and provide a deeper understanding of how to use a framework to make decisions around microgrid solutions. Like many processes where tradeoffs need to be considered, this is often an iterative process. If this guide serves to help educate and empower communities who are beginning the process of deploying a microgrid, it has met the goal of its authors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Demographic Indicators and the Built Environment of a City

In addition to global and regional drivers of urbanization, neighborhood development in urban areas across the United States has been shown to be influenced by various local socio-economic factors. These factors, despite varying across socio-economic groups, have large implications regarding a population’s vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves resulting in adverse health impacts. Additionally, the demographics of an urban area can shape its infrastructural characteristics, causing different populations groups to face varying levels of risks and benefits. As a result, the urban morphology and socio-economic characteristics of a city are deeply intertwined; however, their interactions on a finer scale are not yet fully understood. This research aims to better understand the relationships between various socio-economic factors and the built environment of a city, considering variability in building types, and temperature patterns. This research focuses on the city of Las Vegas, NV, and uses spatial data analysis to understand the correlation between of socio-economic characteristics, building morphology, building characteristics, and temperature data to understand the correlation between these various factors. Results of these research shows there is a distinct pattern of clustering of socio-economic characteristics with the city and there is a distinct correlation between age and cost, socio-economic characteristics, and locations of high heat distribution within the city.

Singh, Ridhima↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel CHI3L1 ‐Associated Angiogenic Phenotypes Define Glioma Microenvironments: Insights From Multi‐Omics Integration

ABSTRACT The CHI3L1 signaling pathway significantly influences glioma angiogenesis, but its role in the tumor microenvironment (TME) remains elusive. We propose a novelCHI3L1‐associated vascular phenotype classification for glioma through integrative analyses of multiple datasets with bulk and single‐cell transcriptome, genomics, digital pathology, and clinical data. We investigated the biological characteristics, genomic alterations, therapeutic vulnerabilities, and immune profiles within these phenotypes through a comprehensive multi‐omics approach. We constructed the vascular‐related risk (VR) score based onCHI3L1‐associated vascular signatures (CAVS) identified by machine learning algorithms. Utilizing unsupervised consensus clustering, gliomas were stratified into three distinct vascular phenotypes: Cluster A, marked by high vascularization and stromal activation with a relatively low levels of tumor‐infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs); Cluster B, characterized by moderate vascularization and stromal activity, coupled with a high density of TILs; and Cluster C, defined by low vascularization and sparse immune cell infiltration. We observed that the CAVS effectively indicated glioma‐associated angiogenesis and immune suppression by single‐cell RNA‐seq analysis. Moreover, the high‐VR‐score group exhibited enhanced angiogenic activity, reduced immune response, resistance to immunotherapy, and poorer clinical outcomes. The VR score independently predicted glioma prognosis and, combined with a nomogram, provided a robust clinical decision‐making tool. Potential drug prediction based on transcription factors for high‐risk patients was also performed. Our study reveals thatCHI3L1‐associated vascular phenotypes shape distinct immune landscapes in gliomas, offering insights for optimizing therapeutic strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Four-Layer Cyber-Physical Security Model for Electric Machine Drives Considering Control Information Flow

Despite the IEEE Power Electronics Society (PELS) establishing Technical Committee 10 on Design Methodologies with a focus on the cyber-physical security of power electronics systems, a holistic design methodology for addressing security vulnerabilities remains underdeveloped. This gap largely stems from the limited integration of computer science and power/control engineering studies in this interdisciplinary field. Addressing the inadequacy of unilateral cyber or control perspectives, this article presents a novel four-layer cyber-physical security model specifically designed for electric machine drives. Central to this model is the innovative control information flow (CIF) model, residing within the control layer, which serves as a pivotal link between the cyber layer's vulnerable resources and the physical layer's state-space models. By mapping vulnerable resources to control variable space and tracing attack propagation, the CIF model facilitates accurate impact predictions based on tainted control laws. The effectiveness and validity of this proposed model are demonstrated through hardware experiments involving two typical cyber-attack scenarios, underscoring its potential as a comprehensive framework for multidisciplinary security strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrative path modeling and QTL mapping identify maturity, stem strength, and cell wall composition driving lettuce resistance to Sclerotinia minor

Lettuce ( Lactuca sativa ) is highly vulnerable to Sclerotinia minor , the pathogen causing lettuce drop. Breeding for resistance is the most effective control strategy; however, full resistance has not been achieved, and current partial resistance sources are often linked with undesirable traits, such as early bolting. This study aimed to unravel the genetic basis of partial resistance to S. minor and its relationship with plant maturity (bolting), stem mechanical strength (SMS), and cell wall composition (CWC) using a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from a cross between the susceptible iceberg cv. ‘Salinas’ and the resistant oil-seed accession PI 251246. Field evaluations indicated that resistance was linked to earlier bolting, stronger stems, and higher pentose content. Path analysis demonstrated that earlier-maturing plants exhibited increased resistance through enhanced SMS and modified CWC, particularly with higher xylose and lower arabinose levels. Further analysis indicated a significant relationship between syringyl lignin content and resistance, especially in plants with varying bolting responses. Three key quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on linkage groups (LG) 2, 6, and 7 were consistently associated with resistance, bolting, and SMS. Importantly, residual QTL analysis revealed that the resistance locus on LG7 acted independently of maturity, suggesting a distinct resistance mechanism. Callose synthase emerged as a key candidate gene within the LG7 resistance QTL, located near - but distinct from - genes associated with plant maturity and flowering. These findings provide valuable insights into decoupling resistance from early bolting, suggesting a pathway for breeding lettuce cultivars with improved disease resistance and delayed bolting.

Lactuca↗

DOE OSTI2021

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Safety of Heavy-Duty Vehicles on Highways through Automatic Speed Enforcement – A Simulation Study

Highway safety remains a significant concern, especially in mixed traffic scenarios involving heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) and smaller passenger cars. The vulnerability of HDVs following closely behind smaller cars is evident in incidents involving the lead vehicle, potentially leading to catastrophic rear-end collisions. Here, this paper explores how automatic speed enforcement systems, using speed cameras, can mitigate risks for HDVs in such critical situations. While historical crash data consistently demonstrates the reduction of accidents near speed cameras, this paper goes beyond the conventional notion of crash occurrence reduction. Instead, it investigates the profound impact of driver behavior changes within desired travel speed distribution, especially around speed cameras, and their contribution to the safety of trailing vehicles, with a specific focus on heavy-duty trucks in accident-prone scenarios. To conduct this analysis, we utilize SUMO, an open-source microscopic traffic simulator, enabling realistic simulations of real-world driving behaviors with and without speed cameras. The simulations also consider empirical distributions of desired headway gaps and reaction times exhibited by human drivers. This study offers a fresh perspective on highway safety by examining how the influence of automatic speed enforcement systems on driver behavior enhances the safety of HDV when faced with challenging situations. By shedding light on these dynamics, we contribute valuable insights to the ongoing research efforts on using technology to create safer roadways, ultimately promoting safer coexistence between heavy-duty and passenger vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A guide to the BRAIN Initiative Cell Census Network data ecosystem

Characterizing cellular diversity at different levels of biological organization and across data modalities is a prerequisite to understanding the function of cell types in the brain. Classification of neurons is also essential to manipulate cell types in controlled ways and to understand their variation and vulnerability in brain disorders. The BRAIN Initiative Cell Census Network (BICCN) is an integrated network of data-generating centers, data archives, and data standards developers, with the goal of systematic multimodal brain cell type profiling and characterization. Emphasis of the BICCN is on the whole mouse brain with demonstration of prototype feasibility for human and nonhuman primate (NHP) brains. Here, we provide a guide to the cellular and spatial approaches employed by the BICCN, and to accessing and using these data and extensive resources, including the BRAIN Cell Data Center (BCDC), which serves to manage and integrate data across the ecosystem. We illustrate the power of the BICCN data ecosystem through vignettes highlighting several BICCN analysis and visualization tools. Finally, we present emerging standards that have been developed or adopted toward Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) neuroscience. The combined BICCN ecosystem provides a comprehensive resource for the exploration and analysis of cell types in the brain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Files and scripts to support manuscript Shuman et al 2023 FATES-SPITFIRE ecosystem assembly across tropics

The dataset includes the parameter and domain files, relevant output files, and scripts to generate simulations and perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Shuman, JK et al 2023 “Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire-trap” in the tropics: Insights from FATES_15.0.0”. We have adapted the fire-behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE, for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture, and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire burned area and its effects, which could fee back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period, but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m-1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m-1. The results support a positive grass-fire feedback across the region, and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities

Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6–35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evidence-based Graph Adversary Mapping (EGRAM) [Poster]

Cybersecurity companies such as CrowdStrike, Dragos, Microsoft and Unit 42 categorize Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) using their own naming schemes. As a result, these APTs are mapped to different malware sources and campaigns, all from differing sources, leading to inconsistent mapping. Inconsistent mapping causes confusion and adds further obscurity around these groups, making it difficult to track and mitigate APT cyberattacks. The Evidence-based Graph Adversary Mapping (EGRAM) tool remediates the mapping challenge by collecting, updating and converting adversary data and their sources into a valid, codified STIX v2.1 bundle which is then stored in a Neo4j graph database. It utilizes graph traversal methods and centrality analysis to generate actionable information as a Structured Threat Intelligence Graph (STIG), based on user queries. EGRAM exists as Python code and a Jupyter Notebook that acts as a searchable, evidence-based, source of intelligence for APT groups’ artifacts and cyber campaigns.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗