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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems

Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.

DC–AC power systems↗

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accelerating the design of lattice structures using machine learning

Lattices remain an attractive class of structures due to their design versatility; however, rapidly designing lattice structures with tailored or optimal mechanical properties remains a significant challenge. With each added design variable, the design space quickly becomes intractable. To address this challenge, research efforts have sought to combine computational approaches with machine learning (ML)-based approaches to reduce the computational cost of the design process and accelerate mechanical design. While these efforts have made substantial progress, significant challenges remain in (1) building and interpreting the ML-based surrogate models and (2) iteratively and efficiently curating training datasets for optimization tasks. Here, we address the first challenge by combining ML-based surrogate modeling and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis to interpret the impact of each design variable. We find that our ML-based surrogate models achieve excellent prediction capabilities (R 2 > 0.95) and SHAP values aid in uncovering design variables influencing performance. We address the second challenge by utilizing active learning-based methods, such as Bayesian optimization, to explore the design space and report a 5 × reduction in simulations relative to grid-based search. Collectively, these results underscore the value of building intelligent design systems that leverage ML-based methods for uncovering key design variables and accelerating design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Windthrow characteristics and their regional association with rainfall, soil, and surface elevation in the Amazon

Abstract Windthrows (trees uprooted and broken by winds) are common across the Amazon. They range in size from single trees to large gaps that lead to changes in forest dynamics, composition, structure, and carbon balance. Yet, the current understanding of the spatial variability of windthrows is limited. By integrating remote sensing data and geospatial analysis, we present the first study to examine the occurrence, area, and direction of windthrows and the control that environmental variables exert on them across the whole Amazon. Windthrows are more frequent and larger in the northwestern Amazon (Peru and Colombia), with the central Amazon (Brazil) being another hot spot of windthrows. The predominant direction of windthrows is westward. Rainfall, surface elevation, and soil characteristics explain the variability (20%–50%) of windthrows but their effects vary regionally. A better understanding of the spatial dynamics of windthrows will improve understanding of the functioning of Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining translational and rotational seismic motions to invert local-scale seismic data for time-variable moment tensors: do rotational motions help for high-frequency seismic data produced by underground explosions?

SUMMARY We present an analysis of combining translational and rotational seismic data in an inversion for the time-variable source time functions corresponding to the components of the seismic moment tensor. We conduct a series of numerical experiments where the data are simulated by a combination of an underground explosion and a co-located double couple shear source and recorded on surface-mounted seismometers within 1–2 km of the source. The experiments are designed to mimic explosion seismology experiments, and thus the data are in the 1–10 Hz frequency range and contain very few surface waves. We use a Monte Carlo method to propagate Earth model uncertainty into the estimates of seismic source parameters. In our experiments, we find that the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters increases when we add rotational seismic motions to the inversion when using a constant number of data channels. In this case, the increased degree of uncertainty in the final results is most likely due to the near-surface Earth model uncertainty that we introduce in our simulations. However, for a fixed number of seismic stations, adding rotational seismic motions to the inversion acts to decrease the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters, most likely due to the increase in the number of data channels used in the inversion.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

Mach Conference, 2022.

There has been considerable interest in chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) manufactured silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composite tubes due to their superior mechanical properties. The SiC/SiC tubes are known to remain stable even after prolonged exposure to radiation. However, there are many variables in the manufacturing of SiC/SiC composite tubes such as elastic constants of constituent SiC fiber and SiC matrix, braiding angle, porosity, and others whose values vary over a range. The intention is to identify the distribution of elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes which would help model the performance of the novel cladding material. To do so, a sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine the dominant variables that influence the elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes. A chosen number of combinations of dominant variables will be sampled through the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The elastic constants of composite tube namely Young's moduli in the circumferential and longitudinal direction, Poisson's ratio, and shear modulus will be calculated at sampled points through finite element (FE) analysis. A polynomial response surface (PRS) will be built for each of the elastic constants to be used as a surrogate to FE analysis. Once the predictive accuracy of PRS is verified at the validation set of data points, the PRS will be invoked 105 times in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The uncertainty can be quantified by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV) based on MCS-generated data which will be presented at the conference.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment

This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tracking blobs in the turbulent edge plasma of a tokamak fusion device

Abstract The analysis of turbulence in plasmas is fundamental in fusion research. Despite extensive progress in theoretical modeling in the past 15 years, we still lack a complete and consistent understanding of turbulence in magnetic confinement devices, such as tokamaks. Experimental studies are challenging due to the diverse processes that drive the high-speed dynamics of turbulent phenomena. This work presents a novel application of motion tracking to identify and track turbulent filaments in fusion plasmas, called blobs, in a high-frequency video obtained from Gas Puff Imaging diagnostics. We compare four baseline methods (RAFT, Mask R-CNN, GMA, and Flow Walk) trained on synthetic data and then test on synthetic and real-world data obtained from plasmas in the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV). The blob regime identified from an analysis of blob trajectories agrees with state-of-the-art conditional averaging methods for each of the baseline methods employed, giving confidence in the accuracy of these techniques. By making a dataset and benchmark publicly available, we aim to lower the entry barrier to tokamak plasma research, thereby greatly broadening the community of scientists and engineers who might apply their talents to this endeavor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Differential Peptide Loading on Tandem Mass Tag-Based Proteomic and Phosphoproteomic Data Quality

Global and phosphoproteome profiling has demonstrated great utility for the analysis of clinical specimens. One major barrier to the broad clinical application of proteomic profiling is the large amount of biological material required, particularly for phosphoproteomics—currently on the order of 25 mg wet tissue weight, depending on tissue type. For hematopoietic cancers such as acute myeloid leukemia (AML), the sample requirement is in excess of 10 million (1E7) peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Throughout the course of a prospective study, this requirement will certainly exceed what is obtainable from many of the individual patients/timepoints. For this reason, we were interested in examining the impact of differential peptide loading across multiplex channels on proteomic data quality. Methods: To achieve this, we tested a range of channel loading amounts (20, 40, 100, 200, and 400 µg of tryptic peptides, or approximately the material obtainable from 5E5, 1E6, 2.5E6, 5E6, and 1E7 AML patient cells) to assess proteome coverage, quantification reproducibility and accuracy in experiments utilizing isobaric tandem mass tag (TMT) labeling. As expected, we found that fewer missing values are observed in TMT channels with higher peptide loading amounts compared to those with lower loading. Moreover, channels with lower loading amounts have greater quantitative variability than channels with higher loading amounts. Statistical analysis of the differences in means among the five loading groups showed that the 20 µg loading group was significantly different from the 400 µg loading group. However, no significant differences were detected among the 40, 100, 200 and 400 µg loading groups. Conclusions: These assessment data demonstrate the practical limits of loading differential quantities of peptides across channels in TMT multiplexes, and provide a basis for designing the optimal clinical proteomics study when specimen quantities are limited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗