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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Construction of quasisymmetric stellarators using a direct coordinate approach

In this work, optimized stellarator configurations and their analytical properties are obtained using a near-axis expansion approach. Such configurations are associated with good confinement as the guiding center particle trajectories and neoclassical transport are isomorphic to those in a tokamak. This makes them appealing as fusion reactor candidates. Using a direct coordinate approach, where the magnetic field and flux surface functions are found explicitly in terms of the position vector at successive orders in the distance to the axis, the set of ordinary differential equations for first and second order quasisymmetry is derived. Examples of quasi-axisymmetric shapes are constructed using a pseudospectral numerical method. Finally, the direct coordinate approach is used to independently verify two hypotheses commonly associated with quasisymmetric magnetic fields, namely that the number of equations exceeds the number of parameters at third order in the expansion and that the near-axis expansion does not prohibit exact quasisymmetry from being achieved on a single flux surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of stop-and-go traffic on training learning-based car-following control

Learning-based car-following control (LCC) of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is gaining significant attention with the advancement of computing power and data accessibility. While the flexibility and large model capacity of model-free architecture enable LCC to potentially outperform the model-based car-following (CF) model in improving traffic efficiency and mitigating congestion, the generalizability of LCC for traffic conditions different from the training environment/dataset is not well-understood. Herein, this study seeks to explore the impact of stop-and-go traffic in the training dataset on the generalizability of LCC. It uses the characteristics of lead vehicle trajectories to describe stop-and-go traffic, and links the theory of identifiability (i.e., obtaining a unique parameter estimation result using sensor measurements) to the generalizability of behavior cloning (BC) and policy-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Correspondingly, the study shows theoretically that: (i) stop-and-go traffic can enable the property of identifiability and enhance the control performance of BC-based LCC in different traffic conditions; (ii) stop-and-go traffic is not necessary for DRL-based LCC to generalize to different traffic conditions; (iii) DRL-based LCC trained with only constant-speed lead vehicle trajectories (not sufficient to ensure identifiability) can be generalized to different traffic conditions; and (iv) stop-and-go traffic increases variance in the training dataset, which improves the convergence of parameter estimation while negatively impacting the convergence of DRL to the optimal control policy. Numerical experiments validate the above findings, illustrating that BC-based LCC entails comprehensive training datasets for generalizing to different traffic conditions, while DRL-based LCC can achieve generalization with simple free-flow traffic training environments. This further suggests DRL as a more promising and cost-effective LCC approach to reduce operational costs, mitigate traffic congestion, and enhance safety and mobility, which can accelerate the deployment and acceptance of CAVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Shell trajectory measurements from direct-drive implosion experiments

A technique to measure the shell trajectory in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions is presented. The x-ray self emission of the target is measured with an x-ray framing camera. Optimized filtering limits the x-ray emission from the corona plasma, isolating a sharp intensity gradient very near the ablation surface. This enables one to measure the radius of the imploding shell with an accuracy better than 1 {mu}m and to determine a 200-ps average velocity to better than 2%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sea-Ice Effects on the Alaskan Wave Climate

This study investigates the uncertainty of wave resource assessments due to sea ice in the nearshore region of Alaska using an innovative approach of combining remotely sensed data and a third-generation phase-averaged wave model. Modeling analysis focused on winter months, when high wave energy is present along with sea ice. This study includes recommendations to improve the accuracy of wave resource assessments and optimize marine and hydrokinetic device siting with consideration of sea-ice effects. Additional recommendations, based on preliminary sea-ice information in Cook Inlet, Alaska, are provided for a trajectory analysis of drifting sea ice and a collision risk assessment of sea ice and tidal turbines. The outcome of this project will provide valuable information about the level of sea-ice impact on the accuracy of wave resource assessments in the Alaska nearshore region, and of sea-ice collision risk with MHK devices and ocean observation systems during winter months when sea ice is present.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen and Electric Charging Infrastructure for Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Nationally Scalable Megaregion Assessment

Decarbonizing regional and long-haul freight is challenging due to the limitations of battery-electric commercial vehicles and infrastructure constraints. Hydrogen fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) offer a viable alternative, aligning with the decarbonization goals of the Department of Energy and commercial entities. Historically, alternative fuels like compressed natural gas and liquefied propane gas have faced slow adoption due to barriers like infrastructure availability. To avoid similar issues, effective planning and deploying zero-emission hydrogen fueling infrastructure is crucial. This research develops deployment plans for affordable, accessible, and sustainable hydrogen refueling stations, supporting stakeholders in the decarbonized commercial vehicle freight system. It aims to benefit underserved and rural energy-stressed communities by improving air quality, reducing noise pollution, and enhancing energy resiliency. This research also provides a blueprint for replacing diesel in over-the-road Class 8 freight truck applications with hydrogen fueling solutions. The study focuses on the Texas Triangle Megaregion (I-45, I-35, and I-10), the I-10 corridor between San Antonio, TX, and Los Angeles, CA, and the I-5/CA-99 corridors between Los Angeles, CA, and San Francisco, CA. This area represents a significant portion of U.S. heavy-duty freight movement, carrying ~8.5% of the national freight volume. Using the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport) modeling framework, the study conducts an advanced assessment of commercial vehicles, road and freight networks, and energy systems. The framework integrates data on freight mobility, traffic, weather, and energy pathways to deliver a region-specific, optimized vehicles powertrain architectures, infrastructure deployment solutions, operational logistics, and energy pathways. By considering all vehicle origin-destination pairs utilizing these corridors and all feasible fueling station location options, the framework's genetic algorithm identifies the minimum number and optimal locations of hydrogen refueling stations, ensuring no vehicle is stranded. It also determines fuel schedules and quantities at each station. A roadmap for station deployment based on multiple adoption trajectories ensures a strategic rollout of hydrogen refueling infrastructure.

Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predicting Reaction Products and Automating Reactive Trajectory Characterization in Molecular Simulations with Support Vector Machines

A machine learning-based methodology for the prediction of chemical reaction products, along with automated elucidation of mechanistic details via phase space analysis of reactive trajectories, is introduced using low-dimensional heuristic models and then applied to ab initio computer simulations of the photodissociation of acetaldehyde, an important chemical system in atmospheric chemistry. Our method is centered around training Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to identify optimal separatrices that delineate the regions of phase space that lead to different chemical reaction products. In contrast to the more common “black box” type machine learning methodologies for analyzing chemical simulation data, this SVM-based methodology allows for mechanistic insight to be gleaned from further analysis of the positioning of the phase space points used to train the SVM with respect to the separatrices. For example, a pair of phase space points that are in close proximity to each other but on opposite sides of a separatrix may be situated on opposite sides of a transition state, while phase space points occurring early in a simulation that are distant from a separatrix are likely to belong to trajectories that are highly biased toward the product state associated with the basin of attraction to which they belong. In addition to inferring mechanistic details about multiple-pathway chemical reactions, our method can also be used to increase reactive trajectory sampling efficiency in molecular simulations via rejection sampling, with trajectories leading to undesired product states being identified and terminated early in the simulation rather than being carried to completion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial Sampling-Based Motion Planning

In this report there are many scenarios in which a mobile agent may not want its path to be predictable. Examples include preserving privacy or confusing an adversary. However, this desire for deception can conflict with the need for a low path cost. Optimal plans such as those produced by RRT* may have low path cost, but their optimality makes them predictable. Similarly, a deceptive path that features numerous zig-zags may take too long to reach the goal. We address this trade-off by drawing inspiration from adversarial machine learning. We propose a new planning algorithm, which we title Adversarial RRT*. Adversarial RRT* attempts to deceive machine learning classifiers by incorporating a predicted measure of deception into the planner cost function. Adversarial RRT* considers both path cost and a measure of predicted deceptiveness in order to produce a trajectory with low path cost that still has deceptive properties. We demonstrate the performance of Adversarial RRT*, with two measures of deception, using a simulated Dubins vehicle. We show how Adversarial RRT* can decrease cumulative RNN accuracy across paths to 10%, compared to 46% cumulative accuracy on near-optimal RRT* paths, while keeping path length within 16% of optimal. We also present an example demonstration where the Adversarial RRT* planner attempts to safely deliver a high value package while an adversary observes the path and tries to intercept the package.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Roofline scaling trajectories: A method for parallel application and architectural performance analysis

The end of Dennard scaling signaled a shift in HPC supercomputer architectures from systems built from single-core processor architectures to systems built from multicore and eventually manycore architectures. This transition substantially complicated performance optimization and analysis as new programming models were created, new scaling methodologies deployed, and on-chip contention became a bottleneck to performance. Existing distributed memory performance models like logP and logGP were unable to capture this contention. The Roofline model was created to address this contention and its interplay with locality. However, to date, the Roofline model has focused on full-node concurrency. In this paper, we extend the Roofline model to capture the effects of concurrency on data locality and on-chip contention. We demonstrate the value of this new technique by evaluating the NAS parallel benchmarks on both multicore and manycore architectures under both strong-And weak-scaling regimes. In order to quantify the interplay between programming model and locality, we evaluate scaling under both the OpenMP and flat MPI programming models.

Ibrahim, K↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low Peripheral Blood Counts and Elevated Proinflammatory Cytokines Signal a Poor CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell Response in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R B-ALL). However, approximately 20% of patients fail to achieve a complete remission (CR), and some develop severe, life-threatening toxicities. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying both dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity is essential for optimizing patient management and improving therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (1) characterize cytokine profiles associated with dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity following CAR-T infusion, (2) examine the timing and trajectory of cytokine changes in relation to treatment outcomes, and evaluate potential strategies for mitigating toxicity and treatment failure. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of serum cytokine profiles in 86 adult and pediatric patients undergoing autologous CD19 CAR-T therapy for B-ALL. Patients were categorized into three groups: (1) Dysfunctional response—Patients who failed to achieve a minimal residual disease-negative CR (MRD-CR) by Day 63 or who experienced recurrence of CD19+ disease in the setting ongoing CAR-T cell detection before Day 63. (2) Functional response with severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and/or neurotoxicity (NTX)—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who experienced grade 3 or higher CRS or NTX. (3) Functional response without severe CRS or NTX—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who did not experience grade =3 CRS or NTX. Cytokine levels were measured during the first-week postinfusion and correlated with treatment efficacy, toxicity outcomes, complete blood counts, and CAR-T expansion dynamics. This analysis aimed to better understand how cytokine profiles relate to patient outcomes and immune responses in CAR-T therapy. Patients with dysfunctional response exhibited decreased neutrophils, platelets, and levels of granulocytic cytokines (suggestive of low bone marrow reserve) alongside elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines by Day 1. Functional response with severe toxicity patients showed a progressive rise in proinflammatory cytokines, reaching similar levels to dysfunctional response patients by Day 7. We observed that high cytokines at both the Day 1 and Day 7 time points were associated with poor survival. These findings remained significant when adjusting for high disease burden, a known predictor of severe inflammatory toxicity and lack of response. Early post-CAR-T infusion inflammation is associated with both dysfunctional response and severe toxicity—even after adjusting for disease burden. This suggests that inflammation, in addition to disease burden, plays a role in determining patient outcome. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the pro-inflammatory state prior to or early after CAR-T cell infusion may improve outcomes for R/R B-ALL patients.

Serum cytokines↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selective capture and recovery of uranium oxide colloids from aqueous soil suspensions using high gradient magnetic filtration

High Gradient Magnetic Filtration (HGMF) is a promising method for the selective capture and recovery of uranium oxide from surface soils. To date, however, magnetic filtration of uranium oxide has only been demonstrated at a proof-of-principle scale using relatively small filters (<5 cm 3 ) at low flowrates (<60 mL/min). Here, to explore the efficacy of magnetic filtration of uranium oxide at a larger scale, a newly designed HGMF apparatus that is more than an order of magnitude larger than our earlier filters (106 cm 3 ) was designed, fabricated, and tested at relatively high flowrates. Filtration experiments were performed using aqueous uranium oxide particle suspensions with Arizona Road Dust (ARD) as a soil simulant. At a flowrate of 125 mL/min, the apparatus’ uranium capture rate was exceptionally high (96 %), but selectivity was poor due to the high rate of capture for diamagnetic soil constituents (e.g., 77 % for silicon). All particles were captured at a lower rate when the flowrate was increased to 250 mL/min, but uranium selectivity was significantly increased due to the more substantial reduction in diamagnetic particle capture (i.e., capture rate of 77 % and 15 % for uranium and silicon, respectively). When backwashing the apparatus at the same flowrates used during filtration experiments, the rate of uranium recovery tended to be fairly low. Nevertheless, higher flowrates (1 L/min) and sonication were both shown to be highly effective methods of increasing uranium recovery. Magnetic field simulations were also performed to investigate potential optimizations to the design of the apparatus. These simulations showed that the intensity of the applied magnetic field could be increased by increasing the thickness of the steel magnetic housing. Additionally, stochastic trajectory simulations were performed to investigate the potential mechanisms of particle capture.

HGMF↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Debris-induced consequences on turbulence and vorticity in solar photovoltaic module-generated array wakes

Particle-laden flows in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are inevitable, where wind-swept debris in open environments are carried by high winds and turbulence, coating panel surfaces or damaging structures. Particle deposition, or soiling, is a well-known issue for large-scale plants which rely on uninhibited solar rays for optimal production. But understanding the mechanisms leading to soiling requires a physical and fluid dynamics-centered focus, since turbulence dominates PV panel wakes and is also known to alter particle concentration and trajectories. This study presents an experimental campaign toward consequences of particle-laden flow between two model PV panels using time-resolved particle image velocimetry. The model array was subjected to varied particle volume fractions, including a tracer particle case and a water droplet case. Characterization of mean velocity, turbulence statistics, and mean kinetic energy within the single phase and, separately, particle phase flows showed modified features due to particle inertia. Images captured at a frequency of 1 kHz in the near wake of the upstream panel allow for a first experimental look at vorticity and convective velocity of vortex structures for single-phase and particle-phase flows which are crucial to debris transport and soiling in PV environments.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling State Transition and Head-Dependent Efficiency Curve for Pumped Storage Hydro in Look-Ahead Dispatch

As one of the most widely installed utility-scale storage facilities, pumped storage hydro (PSH) plays an essential role in providing flexibility for power systems worldwide. Thus, to accurately quantify the flexibility of PSH units in operational optimization problems is important. The conventional PSH models in the literature rarely consider detailed state transitions due to their hourly-based settings. However, it becomes imperative for operational optimization on short-term intervals, especially with increasing shares of renewable energy in power systems. To this end, this paper presents a novel deterministic PSH model that considers the transition time and trajectory between three states of PSH units in look-ahead dispatch. Moreover, to better characterize the varying efficiency of PSH units with water head and flow rate, this paper proposes to model detailed headdependent efficiency curves (hereafter called input-output curves) in look-ahead dispatch, which encounters heavy computational burdens when short time intervals are applied. In this work, a zig-zag piece-wise linear approximation method is used for input-output curve modeling. This can enable an accurate quantification for variable efficiency and head dependence in a computationally effective manner. Here, numerical results are presented to show performances of the proposed PSH model in both flexibility quantification and computation time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation and optimization of the PTOLEMY transverse drift electromagnetic filter

The PTOLEMY transverse drift filter is a new concept to enable precision analysis of the energy spectrum of electrons near the tritium β-decay endpoint. Here, we detail the implementation and optimization methods for successful operation of the filter for electrons with a known pitch angle. We present the first demonstrator that produces the required magnetic field properties with an iron return-flux magnet. Two methods for the setting of filter electrode voltages are detailed. The challenges of low-energy electron transport in cases of low field are discussed, such as the growth of the cyclotron radius with decreasing magnetic field, which puts a ceiling on filter performance relative to fixed filter dimensions. Additionally, low pitch angle trajectories are dominated by motion parallel to the magnetic field lines and introduce non-adiabatic conditions and curvature drift. To minimize these effects and maximize electron acceptance into the filter, we present a three-potential-well design to simultaneously drain the parallel and transverse kinetic energies throughout the length of the filter. These optimizations are shown, in simulation, to achieve low-energy electron transport from a 1 T iron core (or 3 T superconducting) starting field with initial kinetic energy of 18.6 keV drained to < 10 eV (< 1 eV) in about 80 cm. This result for low field operation paves the way for the first demonstrator of the PTOLEMY spectrometer for measurement of electrons near the tritium endpoint to be constructed at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory (LNGS) in Italy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-EF-303-04: An Advanced Image Processing Method to Improve the Spatial Resolution of Proton Radiographies

Purpose: We present an optimization method to improve the spatial resolution and the water equivalent thickness accuracy of proton radiographies. Methods: The method is designed for imaging systems measuring only the residual range of protons without relying on tracker detectors to determine the beam trajectory before and after the target. Specifically, the method was used for an imaging set-up consisting of a stack of 61 parallel-plate ionization chambers (PPIC) working as a range telescope. The method uses a decomposition approach of the residual range signal measured by the PPIC and constructs subimages with small size pixels geometrically rearranged and appropriately averaged to be merged into a final single radiography. The method was tested using Monte Carlo simulated and experimental proton radiographies of a PMMA step phantom and an anthropomorphic head phantom. Results: For the step phantom, the effective spatial resolution was found to be 4 and 3 times higher than the nominal resolution for the simulated and experimental radiographies, respectively. For the head phantom, a gamma index was calculated to quantify the conformity of the simulated proton radiographies with a digitally reconstructed X-ray radiography convolved with a Gaussian kernel equal to the proton beam spot-size. For DTA=2.5 mm and RD=2.5%, the passing ratio was 100%/85% for the optimized/non-optimized case, respectively. An extension of the method allows reducing the dose given to the patient during radiography acquisition. We show that despite a dose reduction of 25 times (leading to a dose of 0.016 mGy for the current imaging set-up), the image quality of the optimized radiographies remains fairly unaffected for both the simulated and experimental results. Conclusion: The optimization method leads to a significant increase of the spatial resolution allowing recovering image details that are unresolved in non-optimized radiographies. These results represent a major step towards clinical application of proton radiography.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP1-02: A New Intra-Fractional Prostate Motion Tracking Method in Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) Via 2D/3D Registration

Purpose: Intra-fractional prostate motion leads uncertainty on delivered dose in radiotherapy and may cause significant dose deviation from the planned dose distribution. This is especially a concern in scenarios with a high dose per fraction and hence a long delivery time, e.g. stereotactic body radiotherapy. Knowledge about intra-fractional prostate motion is valuable to address this problem, e.g. by reconstructing delivered dose and performing adaptation. This study proposes a new approach to determine intra-fractional prostate motion in VMAT via 2D/3D maker registration. Methods: At our institution, each patient has three markers implanted in the prostate. During treatment delivery, kV triggered images were taken every three seconds to acquire 2D projection of 3D anatomy at the direction orthogonal to the therapeutic beam. Projected marker locations were identified on each projection image using template matching with geometric constraints. 3D prostate translation and rotation for each triggered image were obtained by solving an optimization problem, such that the calculated marker locations match the measured ones. Inter-image motion smoothness was employed as a constraint. We tested this method in simulation studies with five realistic prostate motion trajectories acquired via Calypso and in real phantom experiments. Results: For the simulation case, the motion range for these patients was 0.5∼6.0 mm. Root mean square (RMS) error of calculated motion along left-right (LR), anterior-posterior (AP) and cranial-caudal (CC) directions were 0.26mm, 0.36mm, and 0.016mm, respectively. The motion range in the phantom study along LR, AP, and CC directions were 15mm, 20mm and 10mm. The mean RMS errors along these directions were 1.99mm, 1.37mm and 0.22mm. Conclusion: A new prostate motion tracking algorithm based on kV triggered images has been developed and validated. Clinically acceptable accuracy has been achieved.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions. Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗