Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Timescale”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: The Frequency Dependence of Pulse Jitter in Precision Millisecond Pulsars

Low-frequency gravitational-wave experiments require the highest timing precision from an array of the moststable millisecond pulsars. Several known sources of noise on short timescales in single radio pulsar observationsare well described by a simple model of three components: template fitting from a finite signal-to-noise ratio, pulsephase/amplitude jitter from single-pulse stochasticity, and scintillation errors from short-timescale interstellarscattering variations. Currently template-fitting errors dominate, but as radio telescopes push toward higher signalto-noise ratios, jitter becomes the next dominant term for most millisecond pulsars. Understanding the statistics ofjitter becomes crucial for properly characterizing arrival time uncertainties. We characterize the radio frequencydependence of jitter using data on 48 pulsars in the North American Nanohertz Observatory for GravitationalWaves timing program. We detect significant jitter in 43 of the pulsars and test several functional forms for itsfrequency dependence; we find significant frequency dependence for 30 pulsars. We find moderate correlations ofrms jitter with pulse width (R = 0.62) and number of profile components (R = 0.40); the single-pulse rms jitter istypically 1% of pulse phase. The average frequency dependence for all pulsars using a power-law model hasindex 0.42. We investigate the jitter variations for the interpulse of PSR B1937+21 and find no significantdeviations from the main pulse rms jitter. We also test the time variation of jitter in two pulsars and find thatsystematics likely bias the results for high-precision pulsars. Pulsar timing array analyses must properly modeljitter as a significant component of the noise within the detector.

Lam, M. T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

MOA-2012-BLG-505Lb: A Super-Earth-Mass Planet that Probably Resides in the Galactic Bulge

We report the discovery of a super-Earth-mass planet in the microlensing event MOA-2012-BLG-505. This event has the second shortest event timescale of t(sub E) = 10 ± 1 days where the observed data show evidence of a planetary companion. Our 15 minute high cadence survey observation schedule revealed the short subtle planetary signature. The system shows the well known close/wide degeneracy. The planet/host-star mass ratio is q = 2.1 × 10(exp −4) and the projected separation normalized by the Einstein radius is s = 1.1 or 0.9 for the wide and close solutions, respectively. We estimate the physical parameters of the system by using a Bayesian analysis and find that the lens consists of a super-Earth with a mass of 6.7(sup +10.7)(sub -3.6) Mꚛ orbiting around a brown dwarf or late-M-dwarf host with a mass of 0.10(sup +0.16)(sub -0.05) Mꙩ with a projected star–planet separation of 0.9(sup +0.3)(sub -0.2) au. The system is at a distance of 7.2 ± 1.1 kpc, i.e., it is likely to be in the Galactic bulge. The small angular Einstein radius (θ(sub E) = 0.12 ± 0.02 mas) and short event timescale are typical for a low-mass lens in the Galactic bulge. Such low-mass planetary systems in the Bulge are rare because the detection efficiency of planets in short microlensing events is relatively low. This discovery may suggest that such low-mass planetary systems are abundant in the Bulge and currently ongoing high cadence survey programs will detect more such events and may reveal an abundance of such planetary systems.

super-Earth-mass planet↗
NASA NTRS2017

S-band Smallsat InSAR Constellation for Surface Deformation Science

Surface deformation studies using repeat-pass interferometric SAR have evolved into a powerful tool for geophysicists studying earthquake fault zones, volcanoes, ice sheet motion, and subterranean aquifers. Longer wavelengths (S-Band and L-Band) are preferred because they do not decorrelate as quickly as shorter wavelengths. Rapid revisit (1-3 days) is preferred because it allows the study of these phenomena at the timescales at which they commonly occur. Global access on such timescales is also required. Vector surface deformation measurements, taken from more than one direction, are a desired feature. This paper describes the conceptual architecture of a longer wave length, Smallsat SAR constellation of up to 12 satellites for rapid revisit surface deformation studies. The key to making such a constellation affordable is to lower launch costs, spacecraft costs, and instrument (SAR) costs. The first two objectives can be achieved using an ESPA-ring class, or Smallsat spacecraft. The third objective requires a SAR instrument sized to fit the mass and volume constraints imposed by such a spacecraft. Current state-of-the-art in miniaturization of electronics means that the radar transmit, receive and data handling functions can easily be implemented in a compact, low mass solution. The most significant challenge in designing a SAR to fit the Smallsat paradigm is in the dimensions of the antenna. The antenna sizing problem is addressed by adopting a smaller antenna than allowed by conventional SAR design rules. The baseline antenna design is simple, requiring no electronic beam-steering or beam-forming capability. Both reflectarray and microstrip patch antenna solutions are considered. The antenna structure is dual-purpose, to limit the overall system mass, with solar panels on the backplane providing power for the radar and spacecraft. The proposed solution easily accommodates radar squint angles of +/-30 degrees for repeat-pass interferometry measurements from multiple direct

Freeman, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS2014

Saturn's Rings

The rings are changing before our eyes; structure varies on all timescales and unexpected things have been discovered. Many questions have been answered, but some answers remain elusive. Here we highlight the major ring science progress over the mission to date, and describe new observations planned for Cassini’s final three years. Ring Composition and particle sizes: The rings are nearly all water ice with no other ices – so why are they reddish? The C Ring and Cassini Division are “dirtier” than the more massive B and A Rings, as shown by near- IR and, recently, microwave observations. Particle sizes, from stellar and radio occultation's, vary from place to place. Ring structure, micro and macro: numerous spiral density waves and ubiquitous “self-gravity wakes” reveal processes which fostered planet formation in the solar system and elsewhere. However, big puzzles remain regarding the main ring divisions, the C Ring plateau structures, and the B Ring irregular structure. Moonlets, inside and out, seen and unseen: Two gaps contain sizeable moonlets, but more gaps seem to contain none; even smaller embedded “propeller” objects wander, systematically or randomly, through the A ring. Rubble pile ring moons just outside the rings may escaped from the rings, and the recently discovered “Peggy” may be trying this as we watch. Impact bombardment of the rings: Comet fragments set the rings to rippling on century-timescales, and boulders crash through hourly; meanwhile, the constant hail of in falling Kuiper belt material has a lower mass flux than previously thought. Origin and Age of the Rings: The ring mass and bombardment play key roles. The ring mass is well known everywhere but in the B Ring (where most of it is). New models suggest how tidal breakup of evolving moons may have formed massive ancient rings, of which the current ring is just a shadow. During its last three years, the Cassini tour profile will allow entirely new observations: direct measurement of the still-unknown ring mass; direct in-situ sampling of ring particle composition (targeting the iron- or carbon based red non-icy component); and radar backscattering observations.

Cassini↗
NASA NTRS2019

Decadal-Scale Vegetation Change Driven by Salinity at Leading Edge of Rising Sea Level

As sea levels rise, low-lying coastal forests increasingly are subject to stressors such as inundation and saltwater exposure. At long timescales (for example, centuries), the extent of inundation and saltwater exposure will increase; however, on a decadal timescale, the role of these drivers may differ in both magnitude and direction. To investigate the drivers of decadal-scale vegetation change, we measured the changes in five metrics of vegetation composition and structure between 2003/2004 and 2016/ 2017 at 98 plots distributed across a vegetation gradient from coastal forest to brackish marshes (< 0.5–18 ppt). We used elevation as a proxy of inundation vulnerability and soil sodium concentration as a proxy of saltwater exposure, and we investigated relationships between these two variables and the change in vegetation conditions between the two sampling periods. Soil sodium concentration was a significant predictor of vegetation change for all five vegetation metrics, whereas the effect of elevation was not significant for any of the metrics. The one site that was affected by wildfire twice during the duration of the study shifted almost completely from forest to marsh with limited regeneration ofwoody vegetation observed in 2016/ 2017. Our results show that salinization in our system is a more important driver of vegetation change than inundation potential. Furthermore, the effects of drought-induced salinization could be amplified by the elevated risk of wildfire during droughts. Forecasting the response of coastal wetlands to rising sea levels will require a better understanding of the individual and combined effects of salinity, droughts, and wildfires on vegetation.

Taillie, Paul J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Search for High-Energy Counterparts to Fast Radio Bursts

We report on a search for high-energy counterparts to fast radio bursts (FRBs) with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, Fermi Large Area Telescope, and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory Burst Alert Telescope. We find no significant associations for any of the 23 FRBs in our sample, but report upper limits to the high-energy fluence for each on timescales of 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 s. We report lower limits on the ratio of the radio to high-energy fluence, f(sub r) /f(sub γ), for timescales of 0.1 and 100 s. We discuss the implications of our non-detections on various proposed progenitor models for FRBs, including analogs of giant pulses from the Crab pulsar and hyperflares from magnetars. This work demonstrates the utility of analyses of high-energy data for FRBs in tracking down the nature of these elusive sources..

Cunningham, Virginia↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Mg II During Solar Flares. II. Nonequilibrium Effects

To extract the information that the Mg II NUV spectra (observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph) carry about the chromosphere during solar flares, and to validate models of energy transport via model–data comparison, forward modeling is required. The assumption of statistical equilibrium (SE) is typically used to obtain the atomic level populations from snapshots of flare atmospheres, due to computational necessity. However, it is possible that relying on SE could lead to spurious results. We compare solving the atomic level populations via SE versus a non-equilibrium (NEQ) time-dependent approach. This was achieved using flare simulations from RADYN alongside the minority species version MS_RADYN from which the time-dependent Mg II atomic level populations and radiation transfer were computed in complete frequency redistribution. The impacts on the emergent profiles, light curves, line ratios, and formation heights are discussed. In summary we note that NEQ effects during flares are typically important only in the initial stages and for a short period following the cessation of the energy injection. An analysis of the timescales of ionization equilibrium reveals that for most of the duration of the flare, when the temperatures and densities are sufficiently enhanced, the relaxation timescales are short (τrelax < 0.1 s), so that the equilibrium solution is an adequate approximation. These effects vary with the size of the flare, however. In weaker flares, effects can be more pronounced. We recommend that NEQ effects be considered when possible but that SE is sufficient at most stages of the flare.

Kerr, Graham S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Use of an Internal Mercury-Argon Lamp for the Calibration of Raman Frequency in Large Raman Images of Astromaterials

Raman imaging is an emerging tool for the analysis of meteorites, as it is capable of describing mineralogy, carbon composition/speciation, and crystal orientation all within a petrographic context. Adequately examining the heterogeneous composition of a meteorite, while maintaining low laser powers needed to prevent damage to meteorite mineralogy and organics, often requires the collection of large Raman images with long collection times on the timescale of days. However, the frequency calibration of the Raman instrument/spectrometer drifts on long timescales resulting in low frequency precision for the Raman spectra comprising a large Raman image. This decrease in frequency precision can compromise the analysis of geological markers that can provide important information on a meteorite sample. We examine, in detail, the change in bandwidth and frequency of the Raman bands and Hg-Ar emission lines in our Raman images as a function of time and laboratory temperature. To overcome the drift in calibration, we utilize a commercial WITec Raman instrument with an internal Hg-Ar calibration lamp to individually calibrate each spectrum in the Raman image. Our instrument, known as “Ratatoskr”, uses a beam splitter in place of the customary mirror to facilitate collection of Hg-Ar calibration lines concurrent with Raman spectra. We show that using the internal calibration we can improve the frequency precision for the spectra in our Raman images from ~±0.15 cm(exp -1) to ~±0.05 cm(exp -1) for Raman spectra collected over multiple days. This is important as it improves measurements of mineral chemistry, latent strain, and other features that are dependent upon accurate peak position determination. We also examine the spectral signal-to-noise ratio needed to minimize the frequency error when fitting bands to Gaussian/Lorentzian profiles. We then use our results to suggest a general method for calibrating the frequency of Raman spectra in large Raman images.

Jakubek, Ryan S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Detecting Seasonal Ice Dynamics in Satellite Images

Fully understanding how glaciers respond to environmental change will require new methods to help us identify the onset of ice acceleration events and observe how dynamic signals propagate within glaciers. In particular, observations of ice dynamics on seasonal timescales may offer insights into how a glacier interacts with various forcing mechanisms throughout the year. The task of generating continuous ice velocity time series that resolve seasonal variability is made more difficult by a spotty satellite record that contains no optical observations throughout the dark, polar winters. Furthermore, velocities obtained by feature tracking are marked by high noise when image pairs are separated by short time intervals and contain no direct insights into variability that occurs between images separated by long time intervals. In this paper, we describe a method of analyzing optical or SAR-derived feature-tracked velocities to characterize the magnitude and timing of seasonal ice dynamic variability. Our method is agnostic to data gaps and is able to recover climatological average winter velocities regardless of the availability of direct observations during winter. Using characteristic image acquisition times and error distributions from Antarctic image pairs in the ITS_LIVE dataset, we generate synthetic ice velocity time series, then apply our method to recover imposed magnitudes of seasonal variability within ±1.4 m yr−1. We then validate the techniques by comparing our results to GPS data collected on Russell Glacier in Greenland. The methods presented here may be applied to better understand how ice dynamic signals propagate on seasonal timescales, and what mechanisms control the flow of the world’s ice.

Chad A. Greene↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Variable and Non-Variable X-Ray Absorbers in Compton-Thin Type II Active Galactic Nuclei

We have conducted an extensive X-ray spectral variability study of a sample of 20 Compton-thin type II galaxies using broadband spectra from XMM-Newton, Chandra, and Suzaku. The aim is to study the variability of the neutral intrinsic X-ray obscuration along the line of sight and investigate the properties and location of the dominant component of the X-ray-obscuring gas. The observations are sensitive to absorption columns of N(sub H) ∼ 10(exp 20.5–24) cm(exp -2) of fully and partially covering neutral and/or lowly ionized gas on timescales spanning days to well over a decade. We detected variability in the column density of the full-covering absorber in 7/20 sources, on timescales of months to years, indicating a component of compact-scale X-ray-obscuring gas lying along the line of sight of each of these objects. Our results imply that torus models incorporating clouds or over-dense regions should account for line-of-sight column densities as low as ∼a few ×10(exp 21) cm(exp -2). However, 13/20 sources yielded no detection of significant variability in the full-covering obscurer, with upper limits of ΔN(sub H) spanning 10(exp 21–23) cm(exp -2). The dominant absorbing media in these systems could be distant, such as kiloparsec-scale dusty structures associated with the host galaxy, or a homogeneous medium along the line of sight. Thus, we find that overall, strong variability in full-covering obscurers is not highly prevalent in Compton-thin type IIs, at least for our sample, in contrast to previous results in the literature. Finally, 11/20 sources required a partial-covering, obscuring component in all or some of their observations, consistent with clumpy near-Compton-thick compact-scale gas.

Active galaxies↗
NASA NTRS2019

A New Class of Flares from Accreting Supermassive Black Holes

Accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs) can exhibit variable emission across the electromagnetic spectrum and over a broad range of timescales. The variability of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the ultraviolet and optical is usually at the few tens of per cent level over timescales of hours to weeks1. Recently, rare, more dramatic changes to the emission from accreting SMBHs have been observed, including tidal disruption events2,3,4,5, ‘changing look’ AGNs6,7,8,9 and other extreme variability objects10,11. The physics behind the ‘re-ignition’, enhancement and ‘shut-down’ of accretion onto SMBHs is not entirely understood. Here we present a rapid increase in ultraviolet–optical emission in the centre of a nearby galaxy, marking the onset of sudden increased accretion onto a SMBH. The optical spectrum of this flare, dubbed AT 2017bgt, exhibits a mix of emission features. Some are typical of luminous, unobscured AGNs, but others are likely driven by Bowen fluorescence—robustly linked here with high-velocity gas in the vicinity of the accreting SMBH. The spectral features and increased ultraviolet flux show little evolution over a period of at least 14 months. This disfavours the tidal disruption of a star as their origin, and instead suggests a longer-term event of intensified accretion. Together with two other recently reported events with similar properties, we define a new class of SMBH-related flares. This has important implications for the classification of different types of enhanced accretion onto SMBHs.

Benny Trakhtenbrot↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Corona Contracts in a Black-Hole Transient

The geometry of the accretion flow around stellar-mass black holes can change on timescales of days to months1–3. When a black hole emerges from quiescence (that is, it ‘turns on’ after accreting material from its companion) it has a very hard (high-energy) X-ray spectrum produced by a hot corona4,5 positioned above its accretion disk, and then transitions to a soft (lower-energy) spectrum dominated by emission from the geometrically thin accretion disk, which extends to the innermost stable circular orbit6,7. Much debate persists over how this transition occurs and whether it is driven largely by a reduction in the truncation radius of the disk8,9 or by a reduction in the spatial extent of the corona10,11. Observations of X-ray reverberation lags in supermassive black-hole systems12,13 suggest that the corona is compact and that the disk extends nearly to the central black hole14,15. Observations of stellar-mass black holes, however, reveal equivalent (mass-scaled) reverberation lags that are much larger16, leading to the suggestion that the accretion disk in the hard-X-ray state of stellar-mass black holes is truncated at a few hundreds of gravitational radii from the black hole17,18. Here we report X-ray observations of the black-hole transient MAXI J1820+07019,20. We find that the reverberation time lags between the continuum-emitting corona and the irradiated accretion disk are 6 to 20 times shorter than previously seen. The timescale of the reverberation lags shortens by an order of magnitude over a period of weeks, whereas the shape of the broadened iron K emission line remains remarkably constant. This suggests a reduction in the spatial extent of the corona, rather than a change in the inner edge of the accretion disk.

E. Kara↗
NASA NTRS2021

Temperature Fluctuations and Boundary Layer Turbulence as seen by Mars Exploration Rovers Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer

The Mini-TES spectrometer carried by Spirit and Opportunity is a unique instrument that enabled vertical temperature profiles to be retrieved at high frequency (every 2 s, or “ICK”). Observations obtained from this instrument provide information on boundary layer activity. As an extension of previous work, we have retrieved ICK-by-ICK vertical temperature profiles to characterize turbulent behavior at each rover site for up to two Mars Years. We have also retrieved ICK-by-ICK near-surface (1.1 m) atmospheric temperatures and surface temperatures from dedicated atmospheric observations as well as geologic observations that extend the coverage of near-surface observations. The extension and increased frequency of retrievals as well as the additional observations provide a more complete view of the vertical and temporal variation of temperature fluctuations within the PBL. Temperature fluctuations are assessed using detrended temperature time-series data. The results show fluctuations can be as large as 10 K at the surface and 8 K aloft with timescales on the order of minutes. We have calculated the peak-to-peak amplitudes of temperature fluctuations and the corresponding timescales over which they occur. Spirit and Opportunity temperature fluctuation amplitudes decrease in magnitude vertically, where higher atmospheric levels show smaller fluctuations in amplitudes than at the surface. The magnitude of temperature fluctuations changes with the difference in surface and air temperature. This difference varies little as a function of season at both rover sites. Fluctuations are observed to quickly decrease in the late afternoon reaching a minimum near 17:00 LTST followed by moderately increased activity near sunset caused by forced convection. There is no significant change in the observed convective activity as a function of dust optical depth during regional dust storms. The few large temperature fluctuations that are concurrent with dust events are likely the result of large-scale systems.

Mars, atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bright Opportunities for Atmospheric Characterization of Small Planets: Masses and Radii of K2-3 b, c, and d and GJ3470 b from Radial Velocity Measurements and Spitzer Transits

We report improved masses, radii, and densities for four planets in two bright M-dwarf systems, K2-3 and GJ3470, derived from a combination of new radial velocity and transit observations. Supplementing K2 photometry with follow-up Spitzer transit observations refined the transit ephemerides of K2-3 b, c, and d by over a factor of 10. We analyze ground-based photometry from the Evryscope and Fairborn Observatory to determine the characteristic stellar activity timescales for our Gaussian Process fit, including the stellar rotation period and activity region decay timescale. The stellar rotation signals for both stars are evident in the radial velocity data and is included in our fit using a Gaussian process trained on the photometry. We find the masses of K2-3 b, K2-3 c, and GJ3470 b to be 6.48(+0.99,-0.93), 2.14(+1.08,-1.28), and 12.58(+1.31,-1.28)Mꚛ, respectively. K2-3 d was not significantly detected and has a 3σ upper limit of 2.80 Mꚛ. These two systems are training cases for future TESS systems; due to the low planet densities (ρ < 3.7 g/cu.cm) and bright host stars (K < 9 mag), they are among the best candidates for transmission spectroscopy in order to characterize the atmospheric compositions of small planets.

Molly R. Kosiarek↗
NASA NTRS2020

Reinflation of Warm and Hot Jupiters

Understanding the anomalous radii of many transiting hot gas-giant planets is a fundamental problem of planetary science. Recent detections of reinflated warm Jupiters orbiting post-main-sequence stars and the reinflation of hot Jupiters while their host stars evolve on the main sequence may help constrain models for the anomalous radii of hot Jupiters. In this work, we present evolution models studying the reinflation of gas giants to determine how varying the depth and intensity of deposited heating affects both main-sequence reinflation of hot Jupiters and post-main-sequence reinflation of warm Jupiters. We find that deeper heating is required to reinflate hot Jupiters than is needed to suppress their cooling, and that the timescale of reinflation decreases with increasing heating rate and depth. We find a strong degeneracy between heating rate and depth, with either strong shallow heating or weak deep heating providing an explanation for main-sequence reinflation of hot Jupiters. This degeneracy between heating rate and depth can be broken in the case of post-main-sequence reinflation of warm Jupiters, as the inflation must be rapid to occur within post-main-sequence evolution timescales. We also show that the dependence of heating rate on the incident stellar flux inferred from the sample of hot Jupiters can explain reinflation of both warm and hot Jupiters. TESS will obtain a large sample of warm Jupiters orbiting post-main-sequence stars, which will help to constrain the mechanism(s)causing the anomalous radii of gas-giant planets.

Thaddeus D. Komacek↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Resilience of Habitable Climates Around Circumbinary Stars

Here we use a 3‐D climate system model to study the habitability of Earth‐like planets orbiting in circumbinary systems. In the most extreme cases, Earth‐like planets in circumbinary systems could experience variations in the incident stellar flux of up to ~50% on ~100‐day timescales. However, we find that Earth‐like planets, having abundant surface liquid water, are generally effective at buffering against these time‐dependent changes in the stellar irradiation due to the high thermal inertia of oceans compared with the relatively short periods of circumbinary‐driven variations in the received stellar flux. Ocean surface temperatures exhibit little to no variation in time; however, land surfaces can experience modest changes in temperature, thus exhibiting an additional mode of climate variability driven by the circumbinary variations. Still, meaningful oscillations in surface temperatures are only found for circumbinary system architectures featuring the largest physically possible amplitudes in the stellar flux variation. In the most extreme cases, an Earth‐like planet could experience circumbinary‐driven variations in the global mean land surface temperature of up to ~5 K, and variations of local daytime maximum temperatures of up to ~12 K on seasonal timescales, while the global mean ocean temperatures vary by less than ~2 K. Such seasonal temperature swings over land areas could potentially pose adaptability challenges for extant life. Still, habitable planets in circumbinary systems appear to be remarkably resilient against circumbinary‐driven climate variations and can avoid any true climate catastrophes.

Eric T Wolf↗
NASA NTRS2021

Changing Hydroclimate Dynamics and the 19th to 20th Century Wetting Trend in the English Channel Region of Northwest Europe

Northwestern Europe has experienced a trend of increasingly wet winters over the past 150 years, with few explanations for what may have driven this hydroclimatic change. Here we use the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a tree-ring based reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), to examine this wetting trend and place it in a longer hydroclimatic context. We find that scPDSI variability in northwestern Europe is strongly correlated with the leading mode of the OWDA during the last millennium (1000–2012). This leading mode, here named the ‘English Channel’ (EC) mode, has pronounced variability on interannual to centennial timescales and has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. A shift in the EC mode from a prolonged negative phase to more neutral conditions during the 19th and 20th centuries is associated with the wetting trend over its area of influence in England, Wales, and much of northern continental Europe. The EC mode is the dominant scPDSI mode from approximately 1000–1850, after which its dominance waned in favor of the secondary ‘North–South’ (NS) mode, which has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We examine the dynamical nature of both of these modes and how they vary on interannual to centennial timescales. Our results provide insight into the nature of hydroclimate variability in Europe before the widespread availability of instrumental observations.

hydroclimate↗
NASA NTRS2021

Rapid accretion state transitions following the tidal disruption event AT2018fyk

Following a tidal disruption event (TDE), the accretion rate can evolve from quiescent to near- Eddington levels and back over months{years timescales. This provides a unique opportunity to study the formation and evolution of the accretion flow around supermassive black holes (SMBHs). We present two years of multi-wavelength monitoring observations of the TDE AT2018fyk at X-ray, UV, optical and radio wavelengths. We identify three distinct accretion states and two state transitions between them. These appear remarkably similar to the behaviour of stellar-mass black holes in outburst. The X-ray spectral properties show a transition from a soft (thermal-dominated) to a hard (power-law dominated) spectral state around Lbol ~few x 10^(-2) LEdd, and the strengthening of the corona over time ~100-200 days after the UV/optical peak. Contemporaneously, the spectral energy distribution (in particular, the UV-to-X-ray spectral slope alphaox ) shows a pronounced softening as the outburst progresses. The X-ray timing properties also show a marked change, initially dominated by variability at long (>day) timescales while a high frequency (~10-3 Hz) component emerges after the transition into the hard state. At late times (~500 days after peak), a second accretion state transition occurs, from the hard into the quiescent state, as identi fied by the sudden collapse of the bolometric (X-ray+UV) emission to levels below 10-3.4 LEdd. Our fi ndings illustrate that TDEs can be used to study the scale (in)variance of accretion processes in individual SMBHs. Consequently, they provide a new avenue to study accretion states over seven orders of magnitude in black hole mass, removing limitations inherent to commonly used ensemble studies.

T. Wevers↗