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At least 361 records · Page 20

Using Bayesian Estimation to Quantify the Risks of Spaceflight

Complex PRA is the best method and current gold standard, as it allows us to reflect changes (improvements) in individual spacecraft system risks over time. Yet, Bayesian methods – using simple inputs – allowed us to get estimates that are in line with high-complexity PRA. Here Bayesian estimation acts as a “gut check” on PRA (supposing a “reasonable” prior is used). Frequentist calculations can overestimate P(failure), especially when total number of trials are few (e.g., after Challenger). In general, Bayesian probability estimation can be used in any risk assessment situation to integrate what we think we know ahead of time with what we observe over time.

Reynolds, Robert J.↗

STS Case Study Development Support

The Shuttle Case Study Collection (SCSC) has been developed using lessons learned documented by NASA engineers, analysts, and contractors. The SCSC provides educators with a new tool to teach real-world engineering processes with the goal of providing unique educational materials that enhance critical thinking, decision-making and problem-solving skills. During this third phase of the project, responsibilities included: the revision of the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) source code to ensure all pages follow World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) standards, and the addition and edition of website content, including text, documents, and images. Basic HTML knowledge was required, as was basic knowledge of photo editing software, and training to learn how to use NASA's Content Management System for website design. The outcome of this project was its release to the public.

Rosa de Jesus, Dan A.↗

Exploring Methods to Collect and Analyze Data on Human Contributions to Aviation Safety: A Panel Discussion

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures in aviation. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of aviation safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety-producing behaviors in addition to safety-reducing behaviors. Opportunities and challenges in collecting and analyzing the largely unexploited data on desired, safety-producing operator behaviors are discussed.

Aviation Safety↗

Exploring Methods to Collect and Analyze Data on Human Contributions to Aviation Safety: A Panel Discussion

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures in aviation. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of aviation safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety producing behaviors in addition to safety reducing behaviors. The panel will discuss opportunities and challenges in collecting and analyzing the largely unexploited data on desired, safety-producing operator behaviors.

aviation safety↗

Using the Space Glove to Teach Spatial Thinking

The challenge of extending students' skills in spatial thinking to astronomical scales was the central focus of our K-8 curriculum development. When the project's lead teacher requested a curriculum that cumulatively built on each prior year's learning in a spiral fashion, I knew exactly what the school was asking for. Second and third graders began by noticing the cyclical patters that the sun, moon, and stars make in the sky. Fourth graders explored the phases of the moon by taking turns modeling and sketching them in their classroom and then comparing them to the real sky. Sixth !graders used real telescopes to observe a moving model of our solar system and walked a scale model of the planets' orbits. The curriculum is designed to expand students' capacity to visualize space in a hierarchical fashion that asks them to imagine themselves from a broader number of spatial perspectives through hands-on activities. The "situational awareness" Peter's story describes is a hallmark of high-performance engineering and innovation. Keeping in mind the potential outcomes of multiple paths of pursuit from multiple perspectives while keeping track of their relative merits and performance requirements is a demanding spatial task. What made it possible for Peter to transform the failure of his first glove into triumph was the mental space in which that failure provided exactly the information needed for a new breakthrough. In at least two cases, Peter could immediately "see" the full implications of what his hands were telling him. He tells the story of how putting his hands in a Phase VI astronaut glove instantly transformed his understanding of the glove challenge. Six months into his development, the failure of circumferentially wrapped cords to produce a sufficiently flexible glove again forced him to abandon his assumptions. His situational awareness was so clear and compelling it became a gut-level response. Peter's finely developed spatial skills enabled him to almost instinctively focus his full energy on a carefully constructed set of experiments. The finger's ability to sense pressure, force, and work gave him the immediate feedback required to solve this one central problem. Once properly understood, his failure quickly led to the magical "Aha!" moment of discovery; the rest is history. Just as children need opportunities to develop hands-on understanding, engineers need to explore new possibilities through incremental hands-on failure. High-performance innovation is all about learning to make maximum use of thinking spatially to direct this process. Peter Homer's glove also reminds us that efficient engineering decisions need to be made as close to the hardware as possible. Whether we're doing hands-on education or hands-on engineering, it is when we trust in our ability to "feel our way" through failure that we reach our highest potential.

Lord, Peter↗

HOP and Cybersecurity: Leveraging safety and reliability experience to improve digital security culture

This presentation will introduce participants to key mental models on how to think about and understand safety and the organizational attributes that support it from three of the leading voices in the discipline – David Marx, Dr. Erik Hollnagel and Dr. Todd Conklin – and from there we ask the simple question of “how can we apply this to cybersecurity?” Opportunities, similarities, and differences from the history of accomplishment applying human and organizational performance principles to safety and reliability can be collectively leveraged to the meet the challenge of cybersecurity for OT/ICS/cyber-physical systems. This is the same intent as the "Cybersecurity Culture" principle of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Thinking Inside the Box: A Hands-On Student Activity for Building a Contamination Containment Glovebox to Encourage Problem Solving in a Collaborative Environment

Contamination containment gloveboxes are sealed containers where operators outside the glovebox can safely manipulate hazardous or contamination-sensitive materials inside the glovebox through glove ports on the container. Containment gloveboxes are used in the space industry to study sample materials returned from space such as lunar, asteroid, and comet materials, to manufacture sensitive instruments and space ight hardware, and to perform contamination-sensitive experiments. A hands-on activity has been developed by contamination control engineer and STEM education experts as part of the Virginia Earth System Science Scholars (VESSS) summer academy program to teach high school students about gloveboxes and about problem solving in a collaborative environment. In this activity, student teams are given a list of common household materials (e.g. plastic bags, plastic straws, aluminum foil, tape, disposable gloves, etc.) for building their own glovebox. Students work together to sketch and design their glovebox before being provided a kit of materials, which they must purchase along with any extra materials with a mock team budget. They are given 30 minutes to build their glovebox, however, they do not know what will be placed inside the glovebox or what operations they will need to perform within the glovebox. At the end of the build time, teams are given a small, sealed paper envelope which they place in the glovebox. Each team selects a team member to be designated as the operator, and the operator places their hands in the gloves of the glovebox. The operator uses their gloves to open the envelope in the glovebox, and they discover they have 20 minutes to assemble a jigsaw puzzle. However, the puzzle is \contaminated" with talcum powder. After the 20 minute time period, teams are judged on how well they completed and cleaned the contaminated puzzle. In a post-activity debrief, teams discuss lessons learned such as how the actual built box di ered from the sketched design, the challenge of managing a budget for materials, how the team dealt with surprises, and if their glovebox allowed enough room for the operator to perform the task. This activity has been part of the VESSS summer academy since 2016, and teaches students teamwork, creativity, hands-on experimentation, communication, and reasoning skills. In a demonstration at IAC, a volunteer from the audience will be chosen to assemble a glovebox during the presentation using the same kit of materials and will demonstrate handling puzzle pieces in the completed glovebox.

Elaine Seasly↗

Digital Linear Tape (DLT) technology and product family overview

The demand that began a couple of years ago for increased data storage capacity continues. Peripheral Strategies (a Santa Barbara, California, Storage Market Research Firm) projects the amount of data stored on the average enterprise network will grow by 50 percent to 100 percent per year. Furthermore, Peripheral Strategies says that a typical mid-range workstation system containing 30GB to 50GB of storage today will grow at the rate of 50 percent per year. Dan Friedlander, a Boulder, Colorado-based consultant specializing in PC-LAN backup, says, 'The average NetWare LAN is about 8GB, but there are many that have 30GB to 300GB.....' The substantial growth of storage requirements has created various tape technologies that seek to satisfy the needs of today's and, especially, the next generations's systems and applications. There are five leading tape technologies in the market today: QIC (Quarter Inch Cartridge), IBM 3480/90, 8mm, DAT (Digital Audio Tape) and DLT (Digital Linear Tape). Product performance specifications and user needs have combined to classify these technologies into low-end, mid-range, and high-end systems applications. Although the manufacturers may try to position their products differently, product specifications and market requirements have determined that QIC and DAT are primarily low-end systems products while 8mm and DLT are competing for mid-range systems applications and the high-end systems space, where IBM compatibility is not required. The 3480/90 products seem to be used primarily in the IBM market, for interchangeability purposes. There are advantages and disadvantages for each of the tape technologies in the market today. We believe that DLT technology offers a significant number of very important features and specifications that make it extremely attractive for most current as well as emerging new applications, such as Hierarchical Storage Management (HSM). This paper will demonstrate why we think that the DLT technology and family of DLT products will become the technology of choice for most new applications in the mid-range and high-end (non-IBM) markets.

Lignos, Demetrios↗

The Enterprise Project

Let us look at this thing with two agendas in mind. Agenda number one was to give the class a problem, which was challenging and stimulating. Agenda number two was to see if a bright group of people might come up with some notions about how to bridge these worlds of technology development and flight system development. Here is an opportunity to get some bright folks who bring a lot of capability to the table. Explain the problem to them and see if they can offer some fresh insights and ideas. It s a very powerful process and one that already put to use in MSL in a number of different areas: getting people who haven't been in the middle of the forest, but are still very strong technically, to step in and think about the problem for a while and offer their observations.

Dolci, Wendy↗

So You Think the Crab is Described by a Power-Law Spectrum

X-ray observations of the Crab Nebula and its pulsar have played a prominent role in the history of X-ray astronomy. Discoveries range from the detection of the X-ray Nebula and pulsar and the measurement of the Nebula-averaged X-ray polarization, to the observation of complex X-ray morphology, including jets emanating from the pulsar and the ring defining the shocked pulsar wind. The synchrotron origin of much of the radiation has been deduced by detailed studies across the electromagnetic spectrum, yet has fooled many X-ray astronomers into believing that the integrated spectrum from this system ought to be a power law. In many cases, this assumption has led observers to adjust the experiment response function(s) to guarantee such a result. We shall discuss why one should not observe a power-law spectrum, and present simulations using the latest available response matrices showing what should have been observed for a number of representative cases including the ROSAT IPC, XMM-Newton, and RXTE. We then discuss the implications, if any, for current calibrations.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗

Multichannel Brain-Signal-Amplifying and Digitizing System

An apparatus has been developed for use in acquiring multichannel electroencephalographic (EEG) data from a human subject. EEG apparatuses with many channels in use heretofore have been too heavy and bulky to be worn, and have been limited in dynamic range to no more than 18 bits. The present apparatus is small and light enough to be worn by the subject. It is capable of amplifying EEG signals and digitizing them to 22 bits in as many as 150 channels. The apparatus is controlled by software and is plugged into the USB port of a personal computer. This apparatus makes it possible, for the first time, to obtain high-resolution functional EEG images of a thinking brain in a real-life, ambulatory setting outside a research laboratory or hospital.

Gevins, Alan↗

Psyche Early Project Verification & Validation Planning Development

The Psyche mission to the asteroid (16) Psyche was selected as the fourteenth mission in the Discovery program in January 2017. The Psyche mission will determine if (16) Psyche is the core of a larger differentiated body. As part of the development of this mission a Verification and Validation (V&V) engineer was assigned early in the project’s design Phase B. This paper will discuss some of the strategies that the Psyche team is using to take full advantage of the early planning for V&V on flight projects and specifically how the Psyche mission is approaching these tasks. This paper will discuss the effects of having a V&V mindset on: 1) The Psyche requirements development process, and how focusing not only on how the team will verify these requirements but also on developing the tools necessary to track and monitor that verification feeds back into the requirement development process. 2) The Psyche testbed development, and how using a verification mindset is useful for identifying holes in the testbed development process, including the required testbed speed and how to think about testbed certification early in the process while encouraging trades and developing relationships with the testbed team. 3) Developing new V&V Tools for Psyche, and how developing tools early in the project development process means that they can influence the development of other requirement and scheduling tools. 4) Verification Activity Planning, which is typically done to a preliminary level during Phase B of the project, and is important for understanding the major testing that is needed to ensure that the system as built represents the design. On Psyche we are not only focused on bringing this planning to a preliminary level, we are also developing a V&V focused schedule to help us de-conflict V&V activities that may require similar resources early on in the program’s development. 5) Validation Planning, for which we are working with the testbed and model development teams to ensure that their models can be effectively validated and that the plans to do so are in place. In this paper we will describe how the Psyche mission is approaching each of these V&V areas and identify lessons that can be taken by other space missions trying to decide how much effort should be put into V&V early in the project lifecycle.

Solish, Benjamin↗

Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

DeMAID (Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problems such as large platforms in outer space. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable amount of money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Originally written for design problems, also applicable to problems containing modules (processes) that take inputs and generate outputs. Available in three machine versions: Macintosh written in Symantec's Think C 3.01, Sun, and SGI IRIS in C language.

Rogers, James L., Jr.↗

Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Emissions: Is it an impossible goal?

Meeting growing energy demands while eliminating emissions, maintaining affordability, and ensuring energy justice is one of the most significant grand challenges of our time. Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. In the U.S., this equates to a net-zero electricity sector by 2035 and across all energy use sectors—including electricity, industry, and transportation—by 2050. The key question then becomes: Can we get there from here? Meeting these aggressive goals demands immediate action, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Currently, almost 85% of global energy demands are met by unabated fossil fuels. That means we have a lot of work to do, and we need to consider all of the non-emitting generation options available in each region—including fossil with carbon capture, renewables, and nuclear. And we need to reach our goal while establishing energy justice, which refers to the goal of achieving equity in social and economic participation in the energy system, while remediating past social, economic, and health burdens on communities that have been brought about by our energy system. This presentation will describe U.S. and global efforts focused on novel energy system solutions that strive to maximize use of all clean energy generation options to meet our energy demands, while ensuring sustainability, customer affordability, and a just energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

Predictability↗

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗

Optimize Use of Space Research and Technology for Medical Devices

systems, and cutting-edge component technologies to conduct a wide range of scientific observations and measurements. These technologies are also considered for practical applications that benefit society in remarkable ways. At NASA Goddard, the technology transfer initiative promotes matching technologies from Earth and space science needs to targeted industry sectors. This requires clear knowledge of industry needs and priorities and social demands. The process entails matching mature technologies where there are known innovation challenges and good opportunities for matching technology needs. This requires creative thinking and takes commitment of time and resources. Additionally, we also look at applications for known hot industry or societal needs. Doing so has given us occasion to host discussions with representatives from industry, academia, government organizations, and societal special interest groups about the application of NASA Goddard technologies for devices used in medical monitoring and detection tools. As a result, partnerships have been established. Innovation transpired when new products were enabled because of NASA Goddard research and technology programs.

Optimize↗

Planetary Suit Hip Bearing Model for Predicting Design vs. Performance

Designing a planetary suit is very complex and often requires difficult trade-offs between performance, cost, mass, and system complexity. In order to verifying that new suit designs meet requirements, full prototypes must eventually be built and tested with human subjects. Using computer models early in the design phase of new hardware development can be advantageous, allowing virtual prototyping to take place. Having easily modifiable models of the suit hard sections may reduce the time it takes to make changes to the hardware designs and then to understand their impact on suit and human performance. A virtual design environment gives designers the ability to think outside the box and exhaust design possibilities before building and testing physical prototypes with human subjects. Reductions in prototyping and testing may eventually reduce development costs. This study is an attempt to develop computer models of the hard components of the suit with known physical characteristics, supplemented with human subject performance data. Objectives: The primary objective was to develop an articulating solid model of the Mark III hip bearings to be used for evaluating suit design performance of the hip joint. Methods: Solid models of a planetary prototype (Mark III) suit s hip bearings and brief section were reverse-engineered from the prototype. The performance of the models was then compared by evaluating the mobility performance differences between the nominal hardware configuration and hardware modifications. This was accomplished by gathering data from specific suited tasks. Subjects performed maximum flexion and abduction tasks while in a nominal suit bearing configuration and in three off-nominal configurations. Performance data for the hip were recorded using state-of-the-art motion capture technology. Results: The results demonstrate that solid models of planetary suit hard segments for use as a performance design tool is feasible. From a general trend perspective, the suited performance trends were comparable between the model and the suited subjects. With the three off-nominal bearing configurations compared to the nominal bearing configurations, human subjects showed decreases in hip flexion of 64%, 6%, and 13% and in hip abduction of 59%, 2%, and 20%. Likewise the solid model showed decreases in hip flexion of 58%, 1%, and 25% and in hip abduction of 56%, 0%, and 30%, under the same condition changes from the nominal configuration. Differences seen between the model predictions and the human subject performance data could be attributed to the model lacking dynamic elements and performing kinematic analysis only, the level of fit of the subjects with the suit, the levels of the subject s suit experience.

Cowley, Matthew S.↗