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At least 361 records · Page 20

ARIES Annual Report FY25

Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) test bed for energy system demonstration and de-risking. ARIES comprises the largest collection of physical and digital assets in the DOE laboratory complex, supporting flexible configuration across a broad range of energy scenarios. In Fiscal Year 2025, ARIES provided a platform for system-level research to anticipate and address future energy needs in energy security, system reliability, and technology deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Orbiter Autoland reliability analysis

The Space Shuttle Orbiter is the only space reentry vehicle in which the crew is seated upright. This position presents some physiological effects requiring countermeasures to prevent a crewmember from becoming incapacitated. This also introduces a potential need for automated vehicle landing capability. Autoland is a primary procedure that was identified as a requirement for landing following and extended duration orbiter mission. This report documents the results of the reliability analysis performed on the hardware required for an automated landing. A reliability block diagram was used to evaluate system reliability. The analysis considers the manual and automated landing modes currently available on the Orbiter. (Autoland is presently a backup system only.) Results of this study indicate a +/- 36 percent probability of successfully extending a nominal mission to 30 days. Enough variations were evaluated to verify that the reliability could be altered with missions planning and procedures. If the crew is modeled as being fully capable after 30 days, the probability of a successful manual landing is comparable to that of Autoland because much of the hardware is used for both manual and automated landing modes. The analysis indicates that the reliability for the manual mode is limited by the hardware and depends greatly on crew capability. Crew capability for a successful landing after 30 days has not been determined yet.

Welch, D. Phillip↗

A latent fault Markov model for a highly reliable triplex computer system

A Markov model of a highly reliable triplex system was constructed to evaluate the probability of system failure as a function of the propagation of latent faults. It is found that if the propagation rate of latent faults is extremely high, they do not significantly affect the probability of system failure, while if the propagation rate is extremely low, the survivability of the system is improved. The propagation rate that is most harmful to the survivability of the system is determined as a function of the duration of the flight. A decrease in the probability of system failure due to latency is noted if the probability of any two faults giving the same output is extremely low.

Swern, Frederic L.↗

Going beyond reliability to robustness and resilience in space systems

The words reliability, robustness, and resilience, are often used interchangeably to describe tough and dependable systems but the distinctions between them suggest how to design more serviceable space systems. Reliability is simply the quality of consistently performing well. A system that dependably meets its design requirements in the specified environments is reliable. The designers may not consider themselves responsible for failures under unanticipated conditions. Robustness is the capability of performing without failure under a wide range of conditions, which can go beyond the expected range to include possible off-nominal conditions. Resilience is the ability to recover from or adapt to damaging events, such as failures, accidents, external disruptions, and repurposing. Such changes are usually unanticipated. They often invalidate the usual operating assumptions and cause system failure. Reliability, robustness, and resilience describe dependable performance under increasingly difficult conditions, first the specified environment, then a wider possible environment, and finally unanticipated damaging events. These three are increasingly desirable and increasingly difficult to achieve. Engineering for resilience would design systems that can ignore or repair failures, survive accidents, and recover from disruptions. Increasing the resilience of space systems, the ability to perform after unanticipated events, would greatly increase space crew safety. Improving reliability and robustness can be done by dealing with known sources of problems, but improving resilience requires implementing a general approach to reducing the impact of unknown future events. Two contrasting approaches are reducing system complexity and adding supervisory control. The need for resilience has been claimed for decades but little has been accomplished. Systems designers assume that they understand requirements, technologies, designs, architectures, integration, testing, operations, and environments. The potential problems of changes, failures, accidents, unknown environments, and unknown unknowns are ignored. Systems designers are typically overconfident and ignore the need for robustness and resilience.

Harry W Jones↗

Choosing reliability level for Shuttle-carried payloads

The paramount importance of high payload reliability is questioned in the light of payload recoverability in Spacelab and Space Shuttle experiments, and cost effectiveness through less stringent reliability requirements backed up by recovery and reflight of the experiment if necessary is considered. Ground rules and parameters for assessing reliability and recoverability in relation to mission cost effectiveness are advanced. Mission success probability (for one or several flights), experiment hardware cost, design reliability, cost of orbiting the experiment, support system reliability, and other relevant parameters are identified and discussed, and graphs of experimental total cost envelope are plotted. It is proposed that reliability and quality assurance standards be weighed against failure costs and penalties in the case of recoverable space systems.

Campbell, J. W.↗

National launch system core vehicle

A new launch system is being defined to provide significant improvements in the national launch capability. The most challenging requirements are to reduce operational cost and increase system reliability, dependability, responsiveness while maintaining acceptable mission performance. System architecture studies have established that a family of vehicles is required to launch the required range of payloads. The vehicle design approach implements a design process that identifies the system design criteria and design concepts that enable the vehicle to meet the objectives of cost, reliability, safety and performance. The vehicle design features for the 50 to 100 K payload capability will utilize cost effective elements derived from existing vehicles, emerging technology and lessons learned to enable the system to be developed at a reasonable investment and to deliver payloads in an operationally efficient manner with high reliability.

Worlund, Armis L.↗

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗

Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for NASA space flight programs

This document establishes electrical, electronic, and electromechanical (EEE) parts management and control requirements for contractors providing and maintaining space flight and mission-essential or critical ground support equipment for NASA space flight programs. Although the text is worded 'the contractor shall,' the requirements are also to be used by NASA Headquarters and field installations for developing program/project parts management and control requirements for in-house and contracted efforts. This document places increased emphasis on parts programs to ensure that reliability and quality are considered through adequate consideration of the selection, control, and application of parts. It is the intent of this document to identify disciplines that can be implemented to obtain reliable parts which meet mission needs. The parts management and control requirements described in this document are to be selectively applied, based on equipment class and mission needs. Individual equipment needs should be evaluated to determine the extent to which each requirement should be implemented on a procurement. Utilization of this document does not preclude the usage of other documents. The entire process of developing and implementing requirements is referred to as 'tailoring' the program for a specific project. Some factors that should be considered in this tailoring process include program phase, equipment category and criticality, equipment complexity, and mission requirements. Parts management and control requirements advocated by this document directly support the concept of 'reliability by design' and are an integral part of system reliability and maintainability. Achieving the required availability and mission success objectives during operation depends on the attention given reliability and maintainability in the design phase. Consequently, it is intended that the requirements described in this document are consistent with those of NASA publications, 'Reliability Program Requirements for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1A-l); 'Maintainability Program Requirements for Space Systems,' NHB 5300.4(1E); and 'Quality Program Provisions for Aeronautical and Space System Contractors,' NHB 5300.4(1B).

Source record↗

Redesigning capacity market to include flexibility via ramp constraints in high-renewable penetrated system

Capacity markets can co-exist alongside the energy and ancillary markets to ensure the medium-term and long-term supply adequacy by remunerating the generation resources for their availability. With the substantially increasing deployment of renewable generation, the system needs more flexibility to quickly mitigate the variability and uncertainty caused by the renewable generation. However, the present capacity market model does not differentiate the flexibility of generating units, so it might not give appropriate pricing signals to more flexible units that are usually more expensive. This is particularly important considering the increasing penetration levels of renewable generation on the electric grid, which increases the need for flexible units. This paper proposes a novel capacity market model considering flexibility requirement (FR) under the high penetration levels of renewable generation. Therefore, the proposed model can give the market-clearing price (MCP) for not only peak load generation capacity but also flexibility requirement. Thus, flexible units will tend to receive more economic incentives than non-flexible units. In the case studies, the profitability of different generation resources under the proposed capacity market model is analyzed and compared to the present capacity market model. The results show that the proposed method can maintain system reliability with regard to both peak load and flexibility requirement efficiently.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reliability Indexing of Intra-Facility Dispatch Decisions

The Powertrain Reliability Index (PRI) quantifies the trade-offs made in system reliability for efficiency, water use, and environmental purposes for relevant stakeholders. Using historical data from five North American hydroelectric facilities on a shared river system, this metric characterizes the annual probabilistic reliability of intra-facility dispatch decisions. The metric characterizes the operational risk of actual dispatch based on the lowest risk-exposed dispatch and the highest risk-exposed dispatch. By normalizing facility reliability by the number of components described within the facility, constraining operation by the historic dispatch total of unit starts and generating hours, and bounding by required grid flexibility, each facility’s dispatch can be scored for reliability.

Signore, Stephen R.↗

General Monte Carlo reliability simulation code including common mode failures and HARP fault/error-handling

A Monte Carlo Fortran computer program was developed that uses two variance reduction techniques for computing system reliability applicable to solving very large highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. The program is consistent with the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) code which employs behavioral decomposition and complex fault-error handling models. This new capability is called MC-HARP which efficiently solves reliability models with non-constant failures rates (Weibull). Common mode failure modeling is also a specialty.

Platt, M. E.↗

Enhancing PV Inverter Reliability Through Predictive Maintenance: Insights from Retrofitting of PV Inverters

Photovoltaic (PV) systems represent a cornerstone in the global shift toward sustainable energy generation, with inverters serving as the crucial link between solar panels and the grid. Despite their pivotal role, inverters are susceptible to failures, contributing significantly to maintenance events and operational disruptions in large-scale PV plants. This white paper investigates the importance and methodologies of predictive maintenance strategies that monitor the component-level pre-failure signatures on PV inverters. Through a comprehensive survey of literature and industry professionals, insights on preventive maintenance and retrofitting practices have been gathered. The expert elicitation helps shed light on common challenges and opportunities for improving PV system reliability, particularly inverter reliability. By addressing these challenges, the white paper aims to enhance the long-term viability and effectiveness of solar PV plants in the renewable energy landscape, contributing to the global transition toward environmentally friendly energy generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Fairness-based Distributed Energy Coordination for Voltage Regulation in Distribution Systems

The rapid adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems combined with falling prices of energy storage is paving the way for a future in which customers could locally supply their energy needs and export surplus power to the grid. However, reverse power flow from multiple sites in a network can cause overvoltage that decreases system reliability and the utilization level of PV system. In this paper, we present a two-stage approach to solve the energy coordination problem in distribution networks. In the first stage, a household with PV and energy storage is optimized to allow customers to adopt different control strategies such as load following and tariff arbitrage. We show that such customer-led control strategies can cause reverse power flows during peak PV generation periods, thus resulting in overvoltage. In such cases, the second stage of the proposed approach is called upon to solve a fairness-based energy coordination problem that can maintain voltages within limits while maximizing the PV generation while fairly distributing the actions among all the PV systems. As a result, each of the resources in the network has equal opportunity to export power and shares the responsibility of voltage regulation. Simulation studies have been carried out on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Distributed energy resources, fairness, overvoltag↗

Noncontact Monitoring of Overhead Transmission Lines Using Space Potential Phasor Measurements

Power system reliability requirements necessitate the development of measurement systems to monitor the operational state of critical transmission lines. Here in this article, a novel noncontact method for monitoring overhead transmission lines is proposed. The method is based on measuring the amplitude and relative phase of the transmission line's space potential at two or more strategically located points in space along with the use of passive phase shifters to enhance the sensitivity of the measurements. Applications of voltage unbalance and conductor sag measurements are demonstrated along with the results of conductor sag measurements on an operating 230-kV transmission line. It is shown that using enhanced relative phase measurements can significantly improve the sensitivity of the measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Review of stand-alone photovoltaic application projects sponsored by US DOE and US AID

Experience with dc photovoltaic systems (without backup power) and ranging in output from 23 to 3,500 peak watts, in a wide range of environmental conditions and with a wide range of insolation, is described. Cooperation of NASA with other government agencies resulted in the installation of an air pollution monitor in New Jersey, a seismic sensor in Hawaii, power for lookout towers in national forests in California, an electric power system for a Papago Indian village in Arizona, and a power system for a grain mill and water pump in Tangaye, Upper Volta. Significant operational results are discussed and system reliability is assessed for the 20 experimental systems installed since 1976. Additional systems to be installed overseas are highlighted, and economic factors are considered.

Bifano, W. J.↗

Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

Yackovetsky, Robert↗