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Cosmic Complexity

What explains the extraordinary complexity of the observed universe, on all scales from quarks to the accelerating universe? My favorite explanation (which I certainty did not invent) ls that the fundamental laws of physics produce natural instability, energy flows, and chaos. Some call the result the Life Force, some note that the Earth is a living system itself (Gaia, a "tough bitch" according to Margulis), and some conclude that the observed complexity requires a supernatural explanation (of which we have many). But my dad was a statistician (of dairy cows) and he told me about cells and genes and evolution and chance when I was very small. So a scientist must look for me explanation of how nature's laws and statistics brought us into conscious existence. And how is that seemll"!gly Improbable events are actually happening a!1 the time? Well, the physicists have countless examples of natural instability, in which energy is released to power change from simplicity to complexity. One of the most common to see is that cooling water vapor below the freezing point produces snowflakes, no two alike, and all complex and beautiful. We see it often so we are not amazed. But physlc!sts have observed so many kinds of these changes from one structure to another (we call them phase transitions) that the Nobel Prize in 1992 could be awarded for understanding the mathematics of their common features. Now for a few examples of how the laws of nature produce the instabilities that lead to our own existence. First, the Big Bang (what an insufficient name!) apparently came from an instability, in which the "false vacuum" eventually decayed into the ordinary vacuum we have today, plus the most fundamental particles we know, the quarks and leptons. So the universe as a whole started with an instability. Then, a great expansion and cooling happened, and the loose quarks, finding themselves unstable too, bound themselves together into today's less elementary particles like protons and neutrons, liberating a little energy and creating complexity. Then, the expanding universe cooled some more, and neutrons and protons, no longer kept apart by immense temperatures, found themselves unstable and formed helium nuclei. Then, a little more cooling, and atomic nuclei and electrons were no longer kept apart, and the universe became transparent. Then a little more cooling, and the next instability began: gravitation pulled matter together across cosmic distances to form stars and galaxies. This instability is described as a "negative heat capadty" in which extracting energy from a gravitating system makes it hotter -- clearly the 2nd law of thermodynamics does not apply here! (This is the physicist's part of the answer to e e cummings' question: what is the wonder that's keeping the stars apart?) Then, the next instability is that hydrogen and helium nuclei can fuse together to release energy and make stars burn for billions of years. And then at the end of the fuel source, stars become unstable and explode and liberate the chemical elements back into space. And because of that, on planets like Earth, sustained energy flows support the development of additional instabilities and all kinds of complex patterns. Gravitational instability pulls the densest materials into the core of the Earth, leaving a thin skin of water and air, and makes the interior churn incessantly as heat flows outwards. And the heat from the sun, received mostly near the equator and flowing towards the poles, supports the complex atmospheric and oceanic circulations. And because or that, the physical Earth is full of natural chemical laboratories, concentrating elements here, mixing them there, raising and lowering temperatures, ceaselessly experimenting with uncountable events where new instabilities can arise. At least one of them was the new experiment called life. Now that we know that there are at least as many planets as there are stars, it is hard to imagine that nature's ceasess experimentation would not be able to produce life elsewhere -- but we don't know for sure. And life went on to cause new Instabilities, constantly evolving, with living things in an extraordinary range of environments, changing the global environment, with boom-and-bust cycles. with predators for every kInd of prey, with criminals for every possible crime, with governments to prevent them, and instabilities of the governments themselves. One of the instabilities Is that humans demand new weapons and new products of all sort, leading to serious investments in science and technology. So the natural/human world of competition and combat is structured to lead to advanced weaponry and cell phones. So here we are In 2012, with people writing essays and wondering whether their descendents will be artificial life forms travelling back into space. And, pondering what are the origins of those forces of nature that give rise to everything. Verllnde has argued that gravitation, the one force that has so far resisted our efforts at a Quantum description, is not even a fundamental force, but is itself it a statistical force, like osmosis. What an amazing turn of events! But after all I've just said, I should not be surprised a bit.

Mather, John C.↗

Micro-scale Plasma Arc Gasification for Waste Treatment and Energy Production Project

As NASA continues to develop technology for spaceflight beyond low earth orbit, we must develop the right systems for sustaining human life on a long duration or planetary mission. Plasma arc gasification (PAG) is an energy efficient mechanism of waste management for power generation and synthetic gas(syngas) production.

Technology Portfolio System↗

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗

Building a Field: The Future of Astronomy with Gravitational Waves

Harnessing the sheer discovery potential of GW Astronomy will require bold, deliberate,and sustained efforts to train and develop the requisite workforce. The next decaderequires a strategic plan to build - from the ground up - a robust, open, andwell-connected GW Astronomy community with deep participation from traditionalastronomers, physicists, data scientists, and instrumentalists. This basic infrastructure issorely needed as an enabling foundation for research. We outline a set ofrecommendations for funding agencies, universities, and professional societies to helpbuild a thriving, diverse, and inclusive new field.

Holley-Bockelman, Kelly↗

Exotic Optical Fibers and Glasses: Innovative Material Processing Opportunities in Earth's Orbit

Exotic optical fibers and glasses are the platform material for photonics applications, primarily due to their superior signal transmission (speed, low attenuation), with extending bandwidth deep into the infrared, exceeding that of silica fibers. Gravitational effects (convection sedimentation) have a direct impact on the phase diagram of these materials and influence melting properties, crystallization temperatures, and viscosity of the elemental mix during the manufacturing process. Such factors constitute limits to the yield, transmission quality, and strength and value of these fibers; they also constrain the range of applications. Manufacturing in a gravity-free environment such as the Earth’s Orbit also helps with other aspects of the fabrication process (i.e., improved form factor of the manufacturing unit, sustainability). In this article, revolutionary developments in the field of photonics over the past decade merge with the paradigm shift in the privatization of government-owned capabilities supporting a more diverse infrastructure (parabolic, suborbital, orbital), reduced price, and increased frequency to access space and the microgravity environment. With the increased dependence on data (demand, bandwidth, efficiency), space and the microgravity environment provide opportunities for optimized performance of these exotic optical fibers and glasses underlying the development of enabling technologies to meet future data demand. Existing terrestrial markets (Internet, telecommunications, market transactions) and emerging space markets (onorbit satellite servicing, space manufacturing, space resources, space communications, etc.) seem to converge, and this innovative material processing opportunity of exotic optical fibers and glasses might just be that ‘‘killer app’’: technologically competitive, economically viable, and with the ability to close the business case.

Ioana Cozmuta↗

Southwest Water Resources: Monitoring Surface Water Extents of Remote Stock Ponds in the Southwestern United States Using Earth Observing Systems for Enhanced Water Resources Management

Due to increasingly frequent and severe drought conditions in the southwestern US, land managers and livestock producers need to monitor stock ponds with increasing regularity. The ability to assess stock pond water levels with Earth observing satellite systems would enhance monitoring efforts of partners at the US Forest Service, Arizona Department of Game and Fish, and the Diablo Trust. This study employed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to monitor surface water extent for hundreds of critical stock ponds in Arizona. Using methods adapted from previously developed image processing workflows, this project conducted a time-series analysis to capture seasonal and interannual variations in surface water area between 2013 to 2021. In addition, end users can monitor the surface water extent of stock ponds through the developed Google Earth Engine software tool called Surface Water Identification and Forecasting Tool (SWIFT). SWIFT incorporates the Automated Water Extraction Index, Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, and Tasseled Cap-Wetness Index for optical imagery and the incidence angle, VV and VH polarization bands for Sentinel-1 imagery to detect small water bodies in the study area with an overall accuracy range of 88-93%. These tools will empower our partners to monitor the extents of water in their stock ponds remotely, enabling them to develop data-informed and sustainable management solutions for decades to come.

Rainey Aberle↗

Model Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA/E) Overview

This presentation provides an overview of the Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering work to be completed by the Advanced Air Transportation Technology Project, Systems Analysis and Integration team. The work aims to develop an integrated systems analysis and engineering capability that will be used to digitally integrate and evaluate subsonic aircraft technologies being developed by projects comprising the Sustainable Flight National Partnership.

System Analysis↗

VIPER: Mission Design & Development

The NASA Artemis Program plans to return humans to the Moon to stay. Extended human stays on the Moon will require substantial resources to sustain human presence over the long-term, requiring continuous supplies delivered from the Earth. However, if some of the resources were indigenously available, substantial logistical complexity and costs could be saved by “living off the land”, wherever possible. The LCROSS, LRO and other missions have confirmed the presence of resources such as volatiles in polar regions, so the next step is to understand the scientific nature and physical distribution of those candidate resources. Those local volatiles could be processed into propellants and human life-supporting needs, reducing risk of maintaining a permanent human presence on the Moon. The Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Resource (VIPER) is a surface mobility scientific platform, designed to spend ~100 days mapping and surveying four different Ice Stability Regions to understand the scientific nature and distribution of water and other volatiles. VIPER will also provide scientific mineralogical context of the lunar regolith, such as the presence of silicon and light metals in lunar regolith, providing a composite picture of resource availability and sustainment. This paper will discuss the latest development progress by the VIPER team, following our initial introduction to this mission at IAC2021. The VIPER team has passed both its NASA Preliminary Design Review (PDR) and Critical Design Reviews (CDR), and is now looking to performing significant testing of engineering units representing the design, prior to the team turning its attention to building the flight hardware. VIPER is managed within NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD), utilizing the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) delivery model with partner, Astrobotic, Inc.

Daniel Andrews↗

Plant Water Management in Microgravity

The NASA Plant Water Management (PWM) technology demonstrations aboard ISS apply recent advances in microgravity capillary fluidics research towards the mundane yet problematic challenges of simply watering plants in space. Plant growth in a low-g environment is often hampered by inadequate aeration and over-saturation of the root zone. The present effort aims to exploit the passive capillary forces of poorly wetting liquids (i.e., contaminated water) within unique system geometries that effectively replace the role of gravity in providing sufficient aeration and hydration for simulated plants. Several flight demonstrations have been completed on ISS, including soil and hydroponic models in single and parallel channel networks. Two future demonstrations are still in work and plan to further develop the system to handle sustained plant growth with additional sensors to monitor the growth environment. The results to date demonstrate proof-of-concept, system stability, limits of operation, and more, for simulated plant models. Eventually, real plants will be incorporated into these systems and tested on orbit. The implications are discussed in relation to plant growth facilities for further near-term microgravity plant science research as well as for automated food production for long duration human exploration missions.

microgravity↗

Integrated Systems and Operational Autonomy for Gateway

The Lunar Gateway space station will be operated with less human oversight and control than any human spacecraft thus far. An autonomous software control architecture has been developed to allow the spacecraft to maintain safe operations of the vehicle during times of no human involvement. The development of these autonomous control functionalities has been both technical and process driven. Given that the Gateway will be built modularly with contributions from all over the world, the systems engineering processes had to be shaped to fit with the contractual and political realities of the construction of the international lunar habitat. This paper will describe these challenges and contributions to the development of human spacecraft for sustainable deep space missions.

J M Badger↗

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗

Concept Defined for the International Space Station's Fluids and Combustion Facility

The Fluids and Combustion Facility (FCF) will occupy three powered racks and one stowage rack on the International Space Station (ISS). It will be a permanent modular, multiuser facility to accommodate microgravity science experiments onboard the ISS s U.S. Laboratory Module. FCF will support NASA Human Exploration and Development of Space program objectives requiring sustained, systematic research in the disciplines of fluid physics and combustion science. The two disciplines share racks and mutually necessary hardware within FCF to dramatically reduce costs and effectively use ISS resources. Even with the cost of FCF development included, experimentation using FCF on the space station will cost only half of what it did on the space shuttles.

Winsa, Edward A.↗

Capabilities Development: From International Space Station and the Moon to Mars

The President of the United States, in signing Space Policy Directive-1, directed the NASA Administrator “to lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.” NASA is charged to land American astronauts on the lunar South Pole in 2024 and to continue a campaign of sustainable lunar surface exploration in order to develop necessary technologies and capabilities to enable initial human missions to Mars. NASA’s lunar surface exploration plans are part of a continuum of activities utilizing platforms in low Earth orbit (LEO), cislunar space, and the lunar surface to demonstrate advanced technologies, advance operations concepts, and develop countermeasures to lessen the impacts of the space environment and long duration exposure on the crew working in space. NASA is using a capability-driven approach to identify critical gaps to be addressed as part of a focused program to reduce risk for future deep space exploration missions building to eventual human missions to the surface of Mars. Teams of discipline experts from across NASA identify capability gaps between the current state of the art and the needs of proposed exploration missions and develop integrated strategies and roadmaps for filling those gaps. These inputs include assessment of platform needs for demonstration and testing of new capabilities. Generally, the International Space Station (ISS) and Gateway are needed for demonstration of capabilities for Mars transit, while Lunar surface activities focus on development of capabilities and operational protocols for Mars surface. This paper discusses the activities required to advance critical exploration capabilities, focusing on selection of demonstration and test location based upon the unique environments and characteristics of the ISS, Gateway, and potential lunar surface assets. The optimal strategy will be a combination of ISS/LEO, Gateway, and lunar surface testing; however, not all capabilities require a deep space exploration missions.

Boggs, Kathleen Gallagher↗

Planning and Estimation of Operations Support Requirements

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) estimates during the proposal and early design phases, as well as project replans during the development phase, are heavily focused on hardware development schedules and costs. Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead to de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Any LCC growth can directly impact the programs' ability to fund new missions, and even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns at or after launch due to underestimation of the complexity and supporting requirements for operations activities; the fifth mission had not launched at the time of the mission. The drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This paper updates the D&NF LCC study, looking at the operations (phase E) cost drivers in more detail and extending the study to include 2 additional missions and identifies areas for increased emphasis by project management in order to improve the fidelity of operations estimates.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗

Lessons Learned for Planning and Estimating Operations Support Requirements

Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead projects to focus on hardware development schedules and costs, de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations, and any LCC growth can directly impact the programs ability to fund new missions. The D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center recently studied cost overruns for 7 D&NF missions related to phase C/D development of operational capabilities and phase E mission operations. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential operations risks and controlling the associated impacts to operations development and execution costs. The study found that the drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This presentation summarizes the study and the results, providing a set of lessons NASA can use to improve early estimation and validation of operations costs.

Newhouse, Marilyn↗

Vision for Space Exploration

Vision tasks include: a) Complete the International Space Station; b) Safely fly the Space Shuttle until 2010; c) Develop and fly the Crew Exploration Vehicle (by 2014); d) Return to the moon (by 2020); e) Sustained and affordable human and robotic program; f) Develop innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures; and g) Promote international and commercial participation.

Smith, Bryan K.↗

Application of Emerging Pharmaceutical Technologies for Therapeutic Challenges of Space Exploration Missions

An important requirement of therapeutics for extended duration exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit will be the development of pharmaceutical technologies suitable for sustained and preventive health care in remote and adverse environmental conditions. Availability of sustained, stable and targeted delivery pharmaceuticals for preventive health of major organ systems including gastrointestinal, hepato-renal, musculo-skeletal and immune function are essential to offset adverse effects of space environment beyond low Earth orbit. Specifically, medical needs may include multi-drug combinations for hormone replacement, radiation protection, immune enhancement and organ function restoration. Additionally, extended stability of pharmaceuticals dispensed in space must be also considered in future drug development. Emerging technologies that can deliver stable and multi-therapy pharmaceutical preparations and delivery systems include nanotechnology based drug delivery platforms, targeted-delivery systems in non-oral and non-parenteral formulation matrices. Synthetic nanomaterials designed with molecular precision offer defined structures, electronics, and chemistries to be efficient drug carriers with clear advantages over conventional materials of drug delivery matricies. Nano-carrier materials like the bottle brush polymers may be suitable for systemic delivery of drug cocktails while Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles or (SPIONS) have great potential to serve as carriers for targeted drug delivery to a specific site. These and other emerging concepts of drug delivery and extended shelf-life technologies will be reviewed in light of their application to address health-care challenges of exploration missions. Innovations in alternate treatments for sustained immune enhancement and infection control will be also discussed.

Putcha, Lakshmi↗