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At least 361 records · Page 20

Developing solid-surface plasma facing components for pilot plants and reactors with replenishable wall claddings and continuous surface conditioning. Part A: concepts and questions

Abstract It is estimated that pilot plants and reactors may experience rates of net erosion and deposition of solid plasma facing component (PFC) material of 10 3 –10 5 kg yr −1 . Even if the net erosion (wear) problem can be solved, the redeposition of so much material has the potential for major interference with operation, including disruptions due to so-called ‘unidentified flying objects (UFOs)’ and unsafe dust levels. The potential implications appear to be no less serious than for plasma contact with the divertor target: a dust explosion or a major UFO-disruption could be as damaging for an actively-cooled deuterium-tritium (DT) tokamak as target failure. It will therefore be necessary to manage material deposits to prevent their fouling operation. This situation appears to require a fundamental paradigm shift with regard to meeting the challenge of taming the plasma–material interface: it appears that any acceptable solid PFC material will in effect be flow-through , like liquid–metal PFCs, although at far lower mass flow rates. Solid PFC material will have to be treated as a consumable , like brake pads in cars. ITER will use high-Z (tungsten) armor on the divertor targets and low-Z (beryllium) on the main walls. The ARIES-AT reactor design calls for a similar arrangement, but with SiC cladding on the main walls. Non-metallic low-Z refractory materials such as ceramics (graphite, SiC, etc) used as in situ replenishable, relatively thin—of order mm—claddings on a substrate which is resistant to neutron damage could provide a potential solution for the main walls, while reducing the risk of degrading the confined plasma. Separately, wall conditioning has proven essential for achieving high performance. For DT devices, however, standard methods appear to be unworkable, but recently powder droppers injecting low-Z material ∼continuously into discharges have been quite effective and may be usable in DT devices as well. The resulting massive generation of low-Z debris, however, has the same potential to seriously disrupt operation as noted above. Powder droppers provide a unique opportunity to carry out controlled studies on the management of low-Z slag in all current tokamaks, independent of whether their protection tiles use low-Z or high-Z material.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Error Propagation in the Enthalpy and Entropy of Surface Reactions Arising from a Single DFT Functional

Accounting for parametric uncertainty in models is essential for quantifying the models’ predictive ability. Recently, approaches have been introduced to estimate parametric uncertainty in kinetic models while accounting for correlations among energy parameters. However, correlations have been estimated indirectly and correlations in entropies have not been accounted for. For surface-catalyzed microkinetic models of >C2 (more than two carbon-containing) molecules, which consist of thousands of reaction steps and intermediate surface species, first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is costly, and thus, estimation of thermochemistry and reaction barriers requires surrogate methods of DFT, such as group additivity and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relationships, respectively. For such parametrization, model uncertainty is unclear. This work develops a framework to overcome these gaps using group additivity and a single DFT functional. We estimate correlations in parameters of kinetic models and quantify uncertainty for thermochemistry, reaction barriers, reaction paths, and ultimately reaction rates, accounting also for the contribution of entropic uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is illustrated on propane combustion and ethane oxidative dehydrogenation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tool for Developing Integrated Strategies for Decontamination and Waste Management - 20291

Management of waste from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents is complicated by the fact that decontamination decisions have a profound impact on the characteristics of resulting waste streams. Wide-area biological and radiological incidents could produce massive quantities of waste that may need to be treated on-site and sent for subsequent disposal as non-contaminated materials, or else be directly disposed of as contaminated materials. The EPA has developed the Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) for characterizing and quantifying biological and radiological waste that may be generated from decontamination efforts. This paper focuses on the WEST's uses for radiological incidents. WEST combines Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of externally-supplied plume data, infrastructure databases derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus tool [1], and satellite imagery surface recognition algorithms to combine the composition and square footage of the buildings in the plume with estimates of the materials between the buildings in the plume. The resulting GIS data files are then imported into a Microsoft Access database application, where they are combined with information about the nature and concentration of contaminants, and then subjected to decontamination strategies for different contaminated surfaces. The tool provides estimates of the type and quantities of potential wastes resulting from simulated decontamination and/or demolition activities and includes estimates of the remaining contamination levels including residual contamination contained within each waste stream. Estimates are presented at several levels of detail, allowing users to obtain needed data at the desired resolution. These include estimates for the total affected area, estimates by contamination zone, estimates by decontamination method(s), and estimates by building type (occupancy classification). EPA is currently developing the next version of WEST which will include several substantial enhancements. The most significant improvement for the next version of WEST will include the ability for users to develop contamination scenarios and waste estimates based on previously developed, readily available, and geographically specific infrastructure data. Instead of using WEST's default infrastructure data based on FEMA's Hazus tool, users will be able to import their own building data specific to the geographically affected area. This capability may substantially decrease uncertainties in the resulting waste estimates because the results will be based on actual building data (numbers of each type, square footage, building height, etc.). Two other significant enhancements will be the ability to generate waste estimates for vehicles and biomass. In addition to building debris and building decontamination waste, vehicles and biomass will likely constitute a significant percentage of the total waste which may result from wide area contamination events. This presentation will present the most recent version of WEST, which includes such considerations as affected biomass (e.g., trees), vehicles, and the ability to replace the default Hazus infrastructure databases with custom infrastructure databases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An Overview of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database--Thermophysical, Version 3.1 (MSTDB-TP v.3.1)

This report presents the current status of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical (MSTDB-TP). Information regarding version 3.1 is provided herein, which contains 820 individual salt entries (data from 180+ independent studies); the thermophysical properties contained in the database include density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity. The major updates to the database include a significant expansion of pseudobinary and higher-order chloride salt mixtures, many of which bearing actinides, and an incorporation of more recent literature data (i.e., that within the past 5 years). Also, modifications have been made to the pure compound data in the database as a consequence of an external quality assessment of duplicate datasets. The user-facing API for the MSTDB-TP, Saline, has been updated to include viscosity estimation capabilities based on the Redlich–Kister formalism; this is an advancement with respect to the existing density estimation capabilities. The graphical user interface was also updated to include a density estimation capability, backed by Saline. Finally, additional preliminary efforts to include surface tension into the database, as well as an investigation on formalisms that would be appropriate for thermal conductivity estimation, are reported herein.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Understanding Asteroid 16 Psyche’s composition through 3D impact crater modeling

Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) Main Belt Asteroid (MBA). Radar albedo data indicate Psyche’s surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche’s bulk structure vary widely, with bulk density estimates ranging from 1.4 ± 0.3 g/cm 3 to 4.5 ± 1.4 g/cm 3 and porosity estimates ranging from 30% to 70%. A forthcoming NASA discovery mission will visit Psyche. Narrowing the range of estimated compositions of Psyche prior to mission launch can help to determine the necessary tools for asteroid analysis. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. In this work, we present results from 2D and 3D hydrocode simulations of the largest of these impact structures. Through quantitative comparison of the simulated crater dimensions with measured values, our models suggest that Psyche is largely composed of porous, metallic material. In addition, to match the crater dimensions, our simulations indicate that the angle of impact was significantly altered from vertical by 45–60 degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating three evapotranspiration estimates from model of different complexity over China using the ILAMB benchmarking system

The land surface models range in complexity of terrestrial evapotranspiration, yet it is unknown how model complexity translates to accuracy of modeled evapotranspiration estimates. Here, we use the International Land Model Benchmarking system to assess ET estimates from three models of varying complexity driven by the same forcing datasets: an earth system model, a terrestrial biosphere model, and a stand-alone ET model. The performance assessment includes both temporal and spatial evaluation, and different plant functional types across China. Our results indicate that the most complex model, an earth system model, performed best against the benchmarking datasets and metrics. Terrestrial biosphere model performed best in simulating inter-annual variability of ET, while earth system model performed best in simulating the seasonal cycle. The more complex models (earth system model and terrestrial biosphere model) perform better in forest, shrub and crop ecosystems, while the simpler model (stand-alone ET model) perform better in grass ecosystems. Our study demonstrates the impact of model complexity on ET estimates and highlights directions for future ET model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stimulated geologic hydrogen: from mechanistic control to engineered rock transformation

Geologic hydrogen (GeoH 2 ) generated from subsurface iron-rich rock–water reaction (i.e., serpentinization) is emerging as a promising candidate for the next primary energy source. Yet, accelerating GeoH 2 production from geological to human timescales via enhanced serpentinization remains a formidable scientific and technical challenge. Here, in this Review, we decipher the mechanistic control and explore strategies for accelerating in situ, engineered iron-rich rock transformation into carbon-free GeoH 2 by orders of magnitude. Serpentinization rate is hindered by low porosity and permeability of source rocks, suboptimal temperatures, unfavorable water chemistry, inefficient Fe 2+ -to-Fe 3+ conversion, thermodynamic constraints, and low reactive surface area. While closed-system experiments provide valuable mechanistic insights, open-system conditions with fluid circulation are more crucial for economically viable GeoH 2 production. We assess stimulation techniques from enhanced hydrocarbon and geothermal recovery as tools to be adopted or adapted for increasing reactive surface areas for stimulated GeoH2 production. We estimate that 7.40 × 10 5 to 1.73 × 10 6 million metric tons (Mt) of hydrogen could be engineered over 20 to 50 years from about 10% iron-rich rocks within 10 km depth of continental crust. Enabling GeoH 2 as a viable energy source requires not only advancing scientific frontiers but also forming a global GeoH 2 research network and innovation ecosystem to address the critical scientific, technical, societal, economic, and policy challenges.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Experimental Investigation of Innovative Cooling Schemes on an Additively Manufactured Engine Scale Turbine Nozzle Guide Vane

This study includes the design, validation, and fabrication via direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) of a gas turbine nozzle guide vanes (NGV) that incorporates three innovative cooling schemes specifically enabled by additive manufacturing. The novel NGV design is the culmination of an extensive research and development effort over a period of 4 years that included low- and high-speed cascade testing coupled with unsteady computational fluid dynamics for numerous candidate innovative cooling architectures. The final vane design (SJ-vane) consists of sweeping jet (SJ) film cooling holes on the suction surface (SS), sweeping jet impingement holes at the leading edge and double-wall partial length triangular pin-fin with impinging jet at the trailing edge. For comparison purposes, a second DMLS enabled vane (777-vane) was designed and fabricated with prototypical cooling circuits to serve as a baseline. This vane consists of a shaped film cooling holes on the suction surface, circular impingement holes at the leading edge, and full-length cylindrical pin-fins at the trailing edge. Experiments with the two DMLS enabled vanes were performed at the Ohio State University Turbine Reacting Flow Rig (TuRFR) at engine-relevant temperature (1375 K) and Mach number conditions. Infrared (IR) thermography was utilized to measure the wall temperature of the pressure and suction surface at several coolant mass flowrates to estimate the overall cooling effectiveness (ϕ). Results showed improved cooling performance for the advanced cooling schemes (sweeping jet film cooling, impingement cooling, and triangular pin-fin cooling) compared with the baseline cooling schemes.

Engineering↗

Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response

Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth’s surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone precursors. We further show an anticorrelation between effective climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone frequency changes, suggesting that global tropical cyclone frequency tends to decrease more substantially in models with larger temperature increase.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Using machine learning to improve land use/cover characterization and projection for scenario-based global modeling

The characterization of the land surface in models is critical for robust estimation of the water cycle and associated extremes. Land use determines water demand, and land cover affects water availability. The interaction between water demand and availability is the key determinant of whether systems are resilient to variability in the overall water cycle. Furthermore, activities such as irrigation and deforestation or afforestation may influence regional to global precipitation patterns, depending on the extent of the activity. Thus this proposed work aims to address the following question: How does integrated land use/cover data and improved land use/cover projection, as informed by machine learning approaches, better resolve human-earth system resilience to water cycle variability and extremes?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fracture [Slides]

The Hemisphere provides a very useful platform for understanding bi-axial strain performance under dynamic loading conditions. The fragments maintain a hemispherical surface; combined with other diagnostics, this permits estimation of strain-to-fracture (even though the radiograph is taken after fracture).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Metrology of a Focusing Capillary Using Optical Ptychography

The focusing property of an ellipsoidal monocapillary has been characterized using the ptychography method with a 405 nm laser beam. The recovered wavefront gives a 12.5×10.4μm 2 focus. The reconstructed phase profile of the focused beam can be used to estimate the height error of the capillary surface. The obtained height error shows a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 1.3 μm. This approach can be used as a quantitative tool for evaluating the inner functional surfaces of reflective optics, complementary to conventional metrology methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be ${12.39}_{-0.98}^{+1.30}$ km and ${2.072}_{-0.066}^{+0.067}$ M ⊙ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is ${\mathrm{log}}_{10}(T\,[{\rm{K}}])={5.99}_{-0.06}^{+0.05}$ for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Furthermore, our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

radfluxbrs1long

Estimates clear-sky shortwave and longwave surface fluxes. Clear-sky detection and fitting techniques are used to identify clear sky periods from broadband radiometers and empirically fit functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

radfluxbrs1long

Estimates clear-sky shortwave and longwave surface fluxes. Clear-sky detection and fitting techniques are used to identify clear sky periods from broadband radiometers and empirically fit functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗