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DOE OSTI2025

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Binding profiles for 961 Drosophila and C. elegans transcription factors reveal tissue-specific regulatory relationships

A catalog of transcription factor (TF) binding sites in the genome is critical for deciphering regulatory relationships. Here, we present the culmination of the efforts of the modENCODE (model organism Encyclopedia of DNA Elements) and modERN (model organism Encyclopedia of Regulatory Networks) consortia to systematically assay TF binding events in vivo in two major model organisms,Drosophila melanogaster(fly) andCaenorhabditis elegans(worm). These data sets comprise 605 TFs identifying 3.6 M sites in the fly and 356 TFs identifying 0.9 M sites in the worm, and represent the majority of the regulatory space in each genome. We demonstrate that TFs associate with chromatin in clusters termed “metapeaks,” that larger metapeaks have characteristics of high-occupancy target (HOT) regions, and that the importance of consensus sequence motifs bound by TFs depends on metapeak size and complexity. Combining ChIP-seq data with single-cell RNA-seq data in a machine-learning model identifies TFs with a prominent role in promoting target gene expression in specific cell types, even differentiating between parent–daughter cells during embryogenesis. These data are a rich resource for the community that should fuel and guide future investigations into TF function. To facilitate data accessibility and utility, all strains expressing green fluorescent protein (GFP)-tagged TFs are available at the stock centers for each organism. The chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing data are available through the ENCODE Data Coordinating Center, GEO, and through a direct interface that provides rapid access to processed data sets and summary analyses, as well as widgets to probe the cell-type-specific TF–target relationships.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tropical forests and global change: biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023

In this study, tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth, contain c. 30% of terrestrial C stocks, and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally, as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes. Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based On Sludge Batch 10 Projections from December 2021, February 2022 and August 2022

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, and 26F, Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 (8B 2 O 3 -8Li 2 O-5Na 2 O-79SiO 2 , in weight percent) was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Due to the lower processing rate of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9), the heel in Tank 40 is anticipated to be greater than 40 inches at the projected start of SB10 processing to meet the upcoming Accelerated Basin Deinventory addition dates in Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 11. In December 2021 and February 2022, Savannah River Remediation System Planning provided updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projections based on heels of 74 inches, 84 inches, 94 inches and 103.4 inches. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In August 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projection with a 76 inch-heel representing Decant Y2 and 60 kilogallons of bearing water inleakage that is anticipated during the Tank 51 to Tank 40 transfer. The objectives of this task were to: • Determine the impact on the operating windows for SO and coupled processing • Determine whether any composition gaps exist between the already completed SB10 variability study and the reprojected SB10 glass composition region • Compare the SB10 reprojected glass composition region to the DWPF PCCS model development and validation ranges to ensure that compositional gaps do not exist between the data sets. This report documents the results of these evaluations. Calculation-based frit assessments were performed using the DWPF PCCS glass property models and their associated MAR constraints. Evaluated parameters for coupled processing included the following transfer volumes per Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank batch: 5700 gallons of Tank 40 sludge, 2400-4500 gallons of the SWPF monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids stream, and 15,000 gallons of strip effluent. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 473 remains viable for SB10 processing. A target waste loading (WL) of 36% is possible for SO operation and single strike (0.4 g/L MST) coupled processing up to 600 mg/L of SB9 insoluble sludge solids at a nominal transfer volume of ~2800 gallons. Increasing the single strike transfer volume to 4500 gallons may reduce the maximum WL below 40%. Operating windows are 12 percentage points for SO processing and 14-16 percentage points for coupled processing. Frit 625 allows for a target WL of 36% and is acceptable for use during the SB9 to SB10 transition to deplete remaining inventory as needed. Operating windows are 8 percentage points for SO processing and 12-14 percentage points for coupled processing. Predictive PCCS evaluations performed at DWPF will provide insight into batch-specific acceptability at desired WLs for compositions having expected oxide ratios during processing versus the extreme vertices (corner points) evaluated in this study. The reprojected SB10 glass composition region generally overlaps the previously evaluated SB10 variability study composition region. Thus, the minor composition shift of these updated SB10 projections indicates that no additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment benchmark glass and predictability using the current PCCS models for durability. Based on a comparison of the PCCS model development and validation data to the reprojected SB10 glass composition region, the viscosity and liquidus temperature models will reliably predict SB10 compositions. No additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate predictability of these models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implementing belowground controls on nutrient uptake in ELMv2-SPRUCE improves representation of a boreal peatland ecosystem

Boreal peatlands store 13 %–32 % of the global soil carbon (C) stock, a service dependent on plant-mycorrhizal fungi associations. In these nutrient poor systems, ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal fungi supply up to >80 % of the nutrient requirements of their plant hosts, partly with mined nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from soil organic matter that are otherwise inaccessible to plants. Despite the ecological significance, mycorrhizal associations are only represented in a few land surface or ecosystem models. We modify the peatland branch of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELMv2-SPRUCE) to replace the default photosynthesis-driven inorganic N and P (NP) uptake process with a more realistic representation of the process via three pathways: (1) direct inorganic NP uptake by uncolonized fine roots, (2) indirect inorganic NP acquisition and (3) indirect NP acquisition from organic sources by mycorrhizal roots. We systematically evaluated the performance of the default and modified models with field observations from a whole ecosystem warming and carbon dioxide fertilization experimental site: Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environment (SPRUCE), in northern Minnesota, USA. The modified model reduces the underestimation of the growth response of shrubs in the default model to warming from 40 %–80 % to 17 %–35 % and reduces the overall relative absolute error on C fluxes from 1.61 to 1.54 in calibration. Improvements on modeled shrub growths and shrub-moss community net ecosystem exchanges are also seen in validation. The improved growth response of shrubs to warming is accompanied by several-fold increase in direct inorganic NP uptake and decrease in fungal colonization rate. The modified model simulates a smaller magnitude of transition of the ecosystem from C sink to C source under warming due to alleviation of plant nutrient limitation. Equifinality analysis shows the newly added parameters in the modified model can be constrained by the observed C fluxes. Sensitivity analysis shows the newly added parameters have stronger statistical interactions than the preexisting parameters in the default model. Overall, the modified model is an improvement over the default ELMv2-SPRUCE and will be a useful tool for understanding boreal peatland change.

Wang, Yaoping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid assembly of SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals attenuation of the Omicron BA.1 variant through NSP6

Although the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1) spread rapidly across the world and effectively evaded immune responses, its viral fitness in cell and animal models was reduced. The precise nature of this attenuation remains unknown as generating replication-competent viral genomes is challenging because of the length of the viral genome (~30 kb). Here, we present a plasmid-based viral genome assembly and rescue strategy (pGLUE) that constructs complete infectious viruses or noninfectious subgenomic replicons in a single ligation reaction with >80% efficiency. Fully sequenced replicons and infectious viral stocks can be generated in 1 and 3 weeks, respectively. By testing a series of naturally occurring viruses as well as Delta-Omicron chimeric replicons, we show that Omicron nonstructural protein 6 harbors critical attenuating mutations, which dampen viral RNA replication and reduce lipid droplet consumption. Thus, pGLUE overcomes remaining barriers to broadly study SARS-CoV-2 replication and reveals deficits in nonstructural protein function underlying Omicron attenuation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

How much carbon can be added to soil by sorption?

Abstract Quantifying the upper limit of stable soil carbon storage is essential for guiding policies to increase soil carbon storage. One pool of carbon considered particularly stable across climate zones and soil types is formed when dissolved organic carbon sorbs to minerals. We quantified, for the first time, the potential of mineral soils to sorb additional dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for six soil orders. We compiled 402 laboratory sorption experiments to estimate the additional DOC sorption potential, that is the potential of excess DOC sorption in addition to the existing background level already sorbed in each soil sample. We estimated this potential using gridded climate and soil geochemical variables within a machine learning model. We find that mid- and low-latitude soils and subsoils have a greater capacity to store DOC by sorption compared to high-latitude soils and topsoils. The global additional DOC sorption potential for six soil orders is estimated to be 107 $$\pm$$ ± 13 Pg C to 1 m depth. If this potential was realized, it would represent a 7% increase in the existing total carbon stock.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

DOE OSTI2020

Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models

Not Available

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the economic value of hydropeaking externalities in regulated rivers

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals' preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO 2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions exceed the disutility caused by increased CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Creep and Fatigue Characterization of High Strength Alloy Thin Sections in Advanced CO2 Heat Exchangers

The objective of this work was to characterize and model elevated temperature creep and fatigue behavior for thin sheet and foil forms of gamma-prime strengthened alloys in wrought form and as-processed folded and brazed constructions. This work was motivated by the demanding temperature and pressure service conditions of the GEN3 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle working fluid. More specifically, the possibility of leveraging the superior creep strength of gamma-prime alloys in folded-fin and brazed-plate heat exchanger constructions. Gamma-prime alloys represent a step-change in raw-material strength over solid-solution strengthened alloys. And the folded-fin and brazed-plate heat exchanger architecture is lightweight and leverages cost-effective material stock forms. The investigation contained two parallel paths. (1) The first is referred to as a fundamental investigation where Oak Ridge National Laboratory conducts uniaxial creep testing on thin sheet and foil in wrought form. This effort aimed to serve as a benchmark against a relatively sparse existing database and a baseline comparison for path number 2. (2) The second path is referred to as the practical investigation where Brayton Energy manufactures plate-fin heat exchangers and performs pressurized creep and fatigue testing. This effort aimed to de-risk heat exchanger manufacturing process for service under sCO2 CSP conditions. A total of 14 uniaxial creep tests were completed using Haynes 282 thin sheet and foil. A variety of heat treatments were specified to coincide with path number 2. Baseline metallography of test samples and creep strength performance are contained. Benchmarks relatively to existing thick-form Haynes 282 are made, as well as to other thin-form Nickel-based superalloys. Description of a wrought-form modeling approach for thin gamma-prime alloys is also discussed. A total of 11 pressurized creep and fatigue tests were completed successfully with Haynes 282 heat exchanger prototypes. Manufacturing processing details, testing details, testing results, and failure analysis are discussed. Additionally, creep modeling techniques to predict failure are discussed, and modeling to support technological-to-market. In conclusion, Haynes 282 foils were demonstrated to yield rupture two-to-three orders of magnitude higher than Haynes 230 foils under similar conditions. And the manufactured heat exchanger prototypes demonstrated strength similar to the wrought constituents. Both of which contribute to elevated performance potential or cost savings in practice. Discussion is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifications of growth rate and particle size of magnesium silicate hydrate cement using small‐angle X‐ray scattering

The focus of recent research on cement binders has shifted to alternatives such as magnesium silicate hydrate (M-S-H) to mitigate the environmental impact of conventional concrete production. However, a detailed understanding of the morphology and growth rate of M-S-H, which informs its applicability as a cementing agent, is lacking. These properties are important as they influence cement hydration and consequently the development of macroscopic properties. Here, in this study, the particle size distribution and growth rate of M-S-H synthesized by mixing aqueous stock solutions were analyzed using synchrotron-based small-angle X-ray scattering. The reaction solutions contained dissolved magnesium and silicon with concentrations ranging from 2 to 500 mM, corresponding to saturation indices with respect to M-S-H endmembers, M 0.75 -S-H and M 1.50 -S-H, between 5.8 and 10.3. The precipitation rates of M-S-H align with affinity-based kinetic models and can be described by the following equations: For M 0.75 -S-H: 𝑟 M 0.75 −S−H =10 −9.54±0.70 ⁢(Ω$^{0.59±0.08}_{M_{0.75}⁢\textrm{SH}}$−1), and for M 1.50 -S-H: 𝑟 M 1.50 −S−H =10 −7.56±0.37 ⁢(Ω$^{0.34±0.04}_{M_{1.50}⁢\textrm{SH}}$−1), where 𝑟 is the rate in mol/L/s, and Ω represents the saturation ratio with respect to M-S-H. Moreover, we observed that changing the [Mg]/[Si] ratio affects particle size, a trend that cannot be fully explained by changes in the saturation index alone. These insights are critical for improving the predictability and control of cementation in concrete that utilizes M-S-H-based binders.

M-S-H↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment: Technical Brief

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment - Technical Brief

Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets. However, some new buildings may struggle with meeting the BPS for the following reasons: 1. Energy codes focus on the design of the building and its projected ability to perform efficiently, while BPS compliance is dependent on the actual ongoing performance of the building, considering variables like occupancy, operation, and maintenance. 2. There are significant differences in the methodologies used to determine BPS compliance versus code compliance, including how each handles compliance metrics, handling of building amenities, and renewable energy generation. 3. The prescriptive compliance path in the energy code is based on performance of individual building components, as opposed to the performance compliance path which accounts for holistic building design strategies and interdependent building systems. This can result in a significant variability in post-occupancy performance for buildings built using the prescriptive path. Designs on the lower end of the permitted efficiency range may struggle with meeting the BPS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Performance of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants as Replacement for R-410A in a Regular 2-Speed Heat Pump for Sustainable Cooling

Heat pumps are currently being developed to reduce the energy footprint for residential and commercial building space conditioning and water heating loads in cold climates. To mitigate the nocuous impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment, and to create a carbon-neutral building stock, alternate lower-GWP refrigerants must also replace the predominant use of R-410A, without re-engineering the mechanical hardware. In this paper, we analyze the performance of lower-GWP alternative refrigerants (R-32, R-452B, R-454B, and R-466A) relative to the conventional R-410A and draw conclusions on the relative performances to meet cooling loads. The simulations are accomplished using the heat pump design model, a well-known, public-domain design tool with a free web interface and downloadable desktop version to support public use and the HVAC R&D community. The contributions contain detailed, hardware-based heat exchanger and system analyses to provide a comprehensive assessment. The results of the simulation are scrutinized from the first (capacity and energy efficiency) and second laws (exergy analysis) to identify sources of systemic inefficiency, the root cause of lost work. This rigorous approach provides an exhaustive analysis of alternate lower-GWP refrigerants to replace R-410A using the same hardware. The results have practical value in engineering heat pumps in an economy that is compelled to alter by the consequences and uncertainties of climate change, to reduce its anthropogenic carbon footprint.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗