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At least 361 records · Page 20

Rolling Optimization of Transmission Network Recovery and Load Restoration Considering Hybrid Wind-Storage System and Cold Load Pickup

A common solution to deal with the stochasticity introduced by fast-ramping wind power integration is to equip wind farms (WFs) with energy storage systems (ESSs) to formulate hybrid WF-ESSs. In addition to leveling off wind power fluctuations during normal operations, a hybrid WF-ESS can be a flexible power source to accumulate the power system restoration. In this paper, we propose a rolling optimization model for transmission network recovery and load restoration considering the contributions of WF-ESSs. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem that simultaneously optimizes the amount and location of restorable load blocks as well as the restoration lines. The cold load pickup features of interrupted loads considering the outage duration are modeled in detail. A chance-constrained method is employed to deal with the uncertainty of wind power, and a rolling horizon-based framework is adopted to reduce the influence of forecast error. Case studies are conducted on both New England 39-bus system and part of a provincial power system in China. The results show that the load restoration process can be significantly accelerated by employing the proposed method and contributions of hybrid WF-ESSs to power system restoration are validated.

chance-constrained optimization↗

A Unifying View of Estimation and Control Using Belief Propagation With Application to Path Planning

The use of estimation techniques on stochastic models to solve control problems is an emerging paradigm that falls under the rubric of Active Inference (AI) and Control as Inference (CAI). In this work, we use probability propagation on factor graphs to show that various algorithms proposed in the literature can be seen as specific composition rules in a factor graph. We show how this unified approach, presented both in probability space and in log of the probability space, provides a very general framework that includes the Sum-product, the Max-product, Dynamic programming and mixed Reward/Entropy criteria-based algorithms. The framework also expands algorithmic design options that lead to new smoother or sharper policy distributions. We propose original recursions such as: a generalized Sum/Max-product algorithm, a Smooth Dynamic programming algorithm and a modified versions of the Reward/Entropy algorithm. The discussion is carried over with reference to a path planning problem where the recursions that arise from various cost functions, although they may appear similar in scope, bear noticeable differences. We provide a comprehensive table of composition rules and a comparison through simulations, first on a synthetic small grid with a single goal with obstacles, and then on a grid extrapolated from a real-world scene with multiple goals and a semantic map.

Francesco A. N. Palmieri↗

Gas-rich dwarf galaxies in dense and sparse environments

Dwarf irregular galaxies (generically labelled Im for the present purposes) pose an enigma to students of galaxy evolution. In nearby groups and the Virgo cluster, Im galaxies are at least as abundant as spiral galaxies, and their low surface brightnesses and high gas-to-stars ratios suggest that (at least in the stochastic self-propagating star formation scenario) there should be significant numbers of HI clouds with masses approaching 10(exp 8) solar mass which have undergone very little or no star formation. To date, however, no clouds with so little star formation that they would not be recognized as Im galaxies on high-quality photographic plates have been identified. There have been suggestions that such dwarfs may be tidally disrupted in regions of high galactic density, but may be prevalent in low density regions. We offer data from three parallel programs relevant to this issue. (1) A large number of Im galaxies throughout the Local Supercluster have been mapped in the HI spectral line using the Arecibo Radiotelescope, and we can establish the frequency with which HI disks much more extended than their optically visible portions are found. (2) Our extensive mapping of spiral and dwarf galaxies in the Virgo cluster allows us to set stringent limits on the density of star-free Hi clouds in that cluster. (3) We have conducted a sampling of the void in the distribution of galaxies toward the super galactic pole, optimized for finding low-mass HI clouds at redshifts out to approximately 2000 km/s.

Hoffman, G. Lyle↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

Characterization and Simulation of Optical Delay System for the Proof-of-Principle Experiment of Optical Stochastic Cooling at IOTA

The Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC) experiment at Fermilab’s IOTA storage ring uses two undulators to cool the beam over many turns. The radiation emitted by electrons in the first undulator is delayed and imaged in the second undulator where it applies a corrective energy kick on the electrons. Imperfections in the manufacturing of the delay plates can lead to a source of error. This paper presents the experimental characterization of the absolute thickness of these delay plates using an interferometric technique. The measured "thickness maps" are implemented in the Synchrotron Radiation Workshop (SRW) program to assess their impact on the delayed radiation pulse.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Stochastic model of the NASA/MSFC ground facility for large space structures with uncertain parameters: The maximum entropy approach, part 2

A validated technology data base is being developed in the areas of control/structures interaction, deployment dynamics, and system performance for Large Space Structures (LSS). A Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control systems being considered for LSS applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to verify the analytical model for the control system design. The procedure is to describe the control system mathematically as well as possible, then to perform tests on the control system, and finally to factor those results into the mathematical model. The reduction of the order of a higher order control plant was addressed. The computer program was improved for the maximum entropy principle adopted in Hyland's MEOP method. The program was tested against the testing problem. It resulted in a very close match. Two methods of model reduction were examined: Wilson's model reduction method and Hyland's optimal projection (OP) method. Design of a computer program for Hyland's OP method was attempted. Due to the difficulty encountered at the stage where a special matrix factorization technique is needed in order to obtain the required projection matrix, the program was successful up to the finding of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian solution but not beyond. Numerical results along with computer programs which employed ORACLS are presented.

Hsia, Wei Shen↗

Optimization of structures undergoing harmonic or stochastic excitation

The optimal design was investigated of simple structures subjected to dynamic loads, with constraints on the structures' responses. Optimal designs were examined for one dimensional structures excited by harmonically oscillating loads, similar structures excited by white noise, and a wing in the presence of continuous atmospheric turbulence. The first has constraints on the maximum allowable stress while the last two place bounds on the probability of failure of the structure. Approximations were made to replace the time parameter with a frequency parameter. For the first problem, this involved the steady state response, and in the remaining cases, power spectral techniques were employed to find the root mean square values of the responses. Optimal solutions were found by using computer algorithms which combined finite elements methods with optimization techniques based on mathematical programming. It was found that the inertial loads for these dynamic problems result in optimal structures that are radically different from those obtained for structures loaded statically by forces of comparable magnitude.

Johnson, E. H.↗

M31N 2008-12a-The Remarkable Recurrent Nova in M31-Panchromatic Observations of the 2015 Eruption

The Andromeda Galaxy recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a had been observed in eruption 10 times, including yearly eruptions from 2008 to 2014. With a measured recurrence period of Prec = 351+/-13 days (we believe the true value to be half of this) and a white dwarf very close to the Chandrasekhar limit, M31N 2008-12a has become the leading pre-explosion supernova type Ia progenitor candidate. Following multi-wavelength follow-up observations of the 2013 and 2014 eruptions, we initiated a campaign to ensure early detection of the predicted 2015 eruption, which triggered ambitious ground- and space-based follow-up programs. In this paper we present the 2015 detection, visible to near-infrared photometry and visible spectroscopy, and ultraviolet and X-ray observations from the Swift observatory. The LCOGT 2 m (Hawaii) discovered the 2015 eruption, estimated to have commenced at August 28.28 +/- 0.12 UT. The 2013-2015 eruptions are remarkably similar at all wavelengths. New early spectroscopic observations reveal short-lived emission from material with velocities approx. 13,000 km/s, possibly collimated outflows. Photometric and spectroscopic observations of the eruption provide strong evidence supporting a red giant donor. An apparently stochastic variability during the early supersoft X-ray phase was comparable in amplitude and duration to past eruptions, but the 2013 and 2015 eruptions show evidence of a brief flux dip during this phase. The multi-eruption Swift/XRT spectra show tentative evidence of high-ionization emission lines above a high-temperature continuum. Following Henze et al. (2015a), the updated recurrence period based on all known eruptions is Prec 174 +/- 10 days, and we expect the next eruption of M31N 2008-12a to occur around 2016 mid-September.

cataclysmic variables – stars: individual (M31N ↗

Experimental demonstration of OSC at IOTA: IOTA Run #3 (Report)

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC) is an optical-bandwidth extension of Stochastic Cooling that could advance the state-of-the-art cooling rate in beam cooling by three to four orders of magnitude. The concept of OSC was first suggested in the early 1990s by Zolotorev, Zholents and Mikhailichenko, and replaced the microwave hardware of SC with optical analogs, such as wigglers and optical amplifiers. A number of variations on the original OSC concept have been proposed, and while a variety of proof-of-principle demonstrations and operational uses have been considered, the concept was not experimentally demonstrated up to now. An OSC R&D program has been underway at IOTA for the past several years. Run #3 of the IOTA ring, which began in Nov. 2020 and concluded in Aug. 2021, was focused on the world’s first experimental demonstration of OSC. The experimental program was successful in demonstrating and characterizing the OSC physics with the major outcomes including strong cooling in one, two and three dimensions, validation of the theoretical models of OSC and the demonstration of OSC with a single electron. This report briefly describes the activities and major milestones of the OSC program during Run #3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochastic histories of dust grains in the interstellar medium

The purpose is to study an evolving system of refractory dust grains within the Interstellar Medium (ISM). This is done via a combination of Monte Carlo processes and a system of partial differential equations, where refractory dust grains formed within supernova remnants and ejecta from high mass loss stars are subjected to the processes of sputtering and collisional fragmentation in the diffuse media and accretion within the cold molecular clouds. In order to record chemical detail, the authors take each new particle to consist of a superrefractory core plus a more massive refractory mantle. The particles are allowed to transfer to and fro between the different phases of the interstellar medium (ISM) - on a time scale of 10(exp 8) years - until either the particles are destroyed or the program finishes at a Galaxy time of 6x10(exp 9) years. The resulting chemical and size spectrum(s) are then applied to various astrophysical problems with the following results. For an ISM which has no collisional fragmentation of the dust grains, roughly 10 percent by mass of the most refractory material survives the rigors of the ISM intact, which leaves open the possibility that fossilized isotopically anomalous material may have been present within the primordial solar nebula. Stuctured or layered refractory dust grains within the model cannot explain the observed interstellar depletions of refractory material. Fragmentation due to grain-grain collisions in the diffuse phase plus the accretion of material in the molecular cloud phase can under certain circumstances cause a bimodal distribution in grain size.

Liffman, Kurt↗

Go with the Radflow: Thermal radiation experiments in the high energy-density regime [Slides]

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a nuclear weapons laboratory supporting our nation's defense. In support of the mission is a high energy-density physics program in which we design and execute experiments to study radiation-hydrodynamics phenomena and improve the predictive capability of our large-scale multi-physics software codes on our supercomputers. The Radflow Project is maturing a unique spectroscopic measurement that yields a spatially dependent supersonic radiation wavefront profile. The spectroscopic measurement is much more constraining than the typically used radiography, which measures the density changes due to the shock as the radiation wave goes subsonic. Recently, the spectroscopic measurement has been applied to advanced targets with a detailed heterogeneity representing a single realization of a stochastic medium. The Radflow Project also conducts opacity experiments to explain the current conundrum of the experimental iron opacity differing from theory, which is important in modeling the sun. More than that, though, we need to be able to answer these science questions and be able to validate our theory and codes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗

A Strategy for Autogeneration of Space Shuttle Ground Processing Simulation Models for Project Makespan Estimations

Space Shuttle Processing is a complicated and highly variable project. The planning and scheduling problem, categorized as a Resource Constrained - Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem (RC-SPSP), has a great deal of variability in the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) process flow from one flight to the next. Simulation Modeling is a useful tool in estimation of the makespan of the overall process. However, simulation requires a model to be developed, which itself is a labor and time consuming effort. With such a dynamic process, often the model would potentially be out of synchronization with the actual process, limiting the applicability of the simulation answers in solving the actual estimation problem. Integration of TEAMS model enabling software with our existing schedule program software is the basis of our solution. This paper explains the approach used to develop an auto-generated simulation model from planning and schedule efforts and available data.

Madden, Michael G.↗

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multimode Metastructures: Novel Hybrid 3D Lattice Topologies

With the rapid proliferation of additive manufacturing and 3D printing technologies, architected cellular solids including truss-like 3D lattice topologies offer the opportunity to program the effective material response through topological design at the mesoscale. The present report summarizes several of the key findings from a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The program set out to explore novel lattice topologies that can be designed to control, redirect, or dissipate energy from one or multiple insult environments relevant to Sandia missions, including crush, shock/impact, vibration, thermal, etc. In the first 4 sections, we document four novel lattice topologies stemming from this study: coulombic lattices, multi-morphology lattices, interpenetrating lattices, and pore-modified gyroid cellular solids, each with unique properties that had not been achieved by existing cellular/lattice metamaterials. The fifth section explores how unintentional lattice imperfections stemming from the manufacturing process, primarily sur face roughness in the case of laser powder bed fusion, serve to cause stochastic response but that in some cases such as elastic response the stochastic behavior is homogenized through the adoption of lattices. In the sixth section we explore a novel neural network screening process that allows such stocastic variability to be predicted. In the last three sections, we explore considerations of computational design of lattices. Specifically, in section 7 using a novel generative optimization scheme to design novel pareto-optimal lattices for multi-objective environments. In section 8, we use computational design to optimize a metallic lattice structure to absorb impact energy for a 1000 ft/s impact. And in section 9, we develop a modified micromorphic continuum model to solve wave propagation problems in lattices efficiently.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Guidance of Buoyancy Controlled Vehicles under Ice Shelves using Ocean Currents

We propose a novel technique for guidance ofbuoyancy-controlled vehicles in uncertain under-ice ocean flows.In-situ melt rate measurements collected at the grounding zoneof Antarctic ice shelves, where the ice shelf meets the underlyingbedrock, are essential to constrain models of future sea levelrise. Buoyancy-controlled vehicles, which control their verticalposition in the water column but have no means of horizontalpropulsion, offer an affordable and reliable platform for suchin-situ data collection. However, reaching the grounding zonerequires vehicles to traverse tens of kilometers under the iceshelf, with approximate position knowledge and no meansof communication, in highly variable and uncertain oceancurrents. To address this challenge, we propose a partiallyobservable MDP approach that exploits model-based knowledgeof the under-ice currents and, critically, of their uncertainty,to synthesize effective guidance policies. The approach usesapproximate dynamic programming to model uncertainty inthe currents, and QMDP to address localization uncertainty.Numerical experiments show that the policy can deliver upto 88.8% of underwater vehicles to the grounding zone – a33% improvement compared to state-of-the-art guidance techniques, and a 262% improvement over uncontrolled drifters.Collectively, these results show that model-based under-iceguidance is a highly promising technique for exploration ofunder-ice cavities, and has the potential to enable cost-effectiveand scalable access to these challenging and rarely observed environments.

Clark, Evan B.↗

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Patchy nuclear chain reactions

Stochastic fluctuations of the neutron population within a nuclear reactor are typically prevented by operating the core at a sufficient power, since a deterministic (i.e., exactly predictable) behavior of the neutron population is required by automatic safety systems to detect unwanted power excursions. In order to characterize the reactor operating conditions at which the fluctuations vanish, an experiment was designed and took place in 2017 at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Reactor Critical Facility. This experiment however revealed persisting fluctuations and striking patchy spatial patterns in neutron spatial distributions. Here we report these experimental findings, interpret them by a stochastic modeling based on branching random walks, and extend them using a “numerical twin” of the reactor core. Consequences on nuclear safety will be discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗