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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

A statistical approach for detection of anatomical change - Paper 115

The purpose of this study was to develop a novel statistics-based method for automated detection of anatomical changes using cone-beam CT (CBCT) images of head and neck (H and N) patients. Vendor supplied CBCT software provides the user with the basic tools that allow for the visual assessment of the co-registration of the reference CT data and daily CBCT images. Currently there is no commercially available CBCT software that is capable of detecting anatomical changes and giving the clinician an early alert for the treatment plan adaptation. An algorithm was developed that can detect statistically significant changes at a given confidence level for H and N patients. This tool provides a reliable and automated early warning system that enables a 'just-in-time' adaptation of the treatment plan. A method was developed for automated detection of anatomical changes in H and N patients under radiation therapy treatment. The method utilized imaging CT data along with daily CBCT images to quantitatively compare the patient anatomy against the reference CT imaging data. The comparison algorithm was developed using a statistics-based approach as opposed to threshold-based methods. The algorithm allows for reliable detection of statistically significant changes in the observed patient anatomy at a given level of confidence. The method can be employed as an integral part of the adaptive radiotherapy framework. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing Advanced Statistics to Determine Anomalistic Conditions in Pebble-Bed Reactors

Pebble-bed reactors (PBRs) utilize hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles, which continuously circulate through the core, in lieu of traditional fuel assemblies to generate fissions and produce power. The use of unmarked fuel pebbles presents a challenge for international safeguards verification that nuclear material is not being diverted. To ensure pebble diversion is not taking place, new methods for accounting for and monitoring the pebbles should be examined to determine an appropriate methodology for performing bulk accountancy with pebbles. Here, this work examines the use of statistical methods for determining if the reactor is within a declared range of operation by examining the statistical distribution of pebble burnup as they are discharged from the core. Using this methodology, we created a model that detects diversion over 95% of the time, over multiple diversion pathways, if the reactor core maintains a constant power density during the diversion process and only falsely labels a diversion case nominal 2% of the time. For a diversion scenario where the reactor is maintained at a constant power, the statistical analysis can correctly identify if diversion is occurring over 80% of the time; however, nearly 20% of specific diversion pathways are mislabeled nominal. These results provide a basis and framework for exploring the further use of statistical methods to determine where these methods could be most useful and where additional methods, such as machine learning, could be used to capture if diversion is occurring in pebble-bed reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2 O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumption model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Persona of Transition Metal Ions in Solids: A Statistical Learning on Local Structures of Transition Metal Oxides

Abstract The local structure of a transition metal (TM) ion is a function of cation elements and valence states. More than that, in this work, by employing a trove of first‐principles data of TM oxides, the local structures of TM cations are statistically analyzed to extract detailed information about cation site preference, bond length, site structural distortion, and cation magnetization. It is found that cation radius alone poorly describes the local structure of a transition metal oxide, while the statistics of coordination number as well as the TMO bond length distribution, especially that of the 3d TMs, can provide comprehensive knowledge for understanding the behavior of TM elements. Based on these statistics, the interplay of site distortion due to the Jahn–Teller effect, cation site similarity, and a new set of ionic radii are all obtained to chart the “persona” of transition metal ions in solids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical analysis of the performance and long-term stability of unquenched LSC standards ( 3 H, 14 C) used for radiochemical measurements

Multiple sets of toluene-based unquenched standards, procured over the last 3 decades, were analyzed to determine their stability over time. A statistical analysis was performed to provide insight into the variability for tSIE and counting efficiency measurements of 3 H and 14 C isotopes. Our data suggests that standards remain viable even 30 years after the manufacturer’s recommended expiration date. Overall, these standards have shown no statistically significant sign of performance degradation. We have proven through statistical analysis that these standards can provide comparable performance over time well past their manufactured expiration date.

LSC standards↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantum statistics and spacetime topology: Quantum surgery formulas

To formulate the universal constraints of quantum statistics data of generic long-range entangled quantum systems, we introduce the geometric-topology surgery theory on spacetime manifolds where quantum systems reside, cutting and gluing the associated quantum amplitudes, specifically in 2+1 and 3+1 spacetime dimensions. First, we introduce the fusion data for worldline and worldsheet operators capable of creating anyonic excitations of particles and strings, well-defined in gapped states of matter with intrinsic topological orders. Second, we introduce the braiding statistics data of particles and strings, such as the geometric Berry matrices for particle–string Aharonov–Bohm, 3-string, 4-string, or multi-string adiabatic loop braiding process, encoded by submanifold links, in the closed spacetime 3-manifolds and 4-manifolds. Third, we derive new “quantum surgery” formulas and constraints, analogous to Verlinde formula associating fusion and braiding statistics data via spacetime surgery, essential for defining the theory of topological orders, 3d and 4d TQFTs and potentially correlated to bootstrap boundary physics such as gapless modes, extended defects, 2d and 3d conformal field theories or quantum anomalies. This article is meant to be an extended and further detailed elaboration of our previous work Wang, Wen and Yau (2016) [1] and Chapter 6 of Wang (2015) [2]. Our theory applies to general quantum theories and quantum mechanical systems, also applicable to, but not necessarily requiring the quantum field theory description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical analysis of historic hydrocarbon production data from Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields and application to dynamic capacity assessment in CO 2 storage

Numerical modeling of CO 2 injection and reservoir flow is typically performed to forecast the number of wells, sustainable injection rates, and total storage volume (or mass). A critical determination for CO 2 storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is characterization of reservoir compartmentalization which informs boundary conditions in simulating injection scenarios. Constraining boundary conditions during CO 2 injection into geological formations is a key factor for feasible deployment project. Production history data from 616 wells in 100 oil and gas fields from Gulf of Mexico (GOM) offshore basin can be used to evaluate boundary conditions and total production (oil and gas) and therefor constrain the capacity for potential carbon storage. In general, the combination of decline curve analysis and statistical analysis (to specify constraining boundary conditions) allows the determination of the range of reservoir performance if existing inactive production wells in GOM area of study are used reversibly for CO 2 injection. To constrain the mass of CO 2 which can be injected, it is useful to consider estimates of cumulative bulk (hydrocarbon + brine) production (CBP), which can be converted to equivalent CO 2 mass considering reservoir conditions. Summary CBP statistics are presented as a probability of non-exceedance (PNE), providing a forecast of likely injection rates and masses for other located CO 2 storage projects with similar geology and boundary conditions in the future. The 50% PNE for Equivalent CO 2 is a novel quantitative approach to investigate the possible injection capacity in CO 2 storage projects. The PNE sensitivity analysis shows that reservoir age, drive mechanism, reservoir trap, and reservoir porosity are the key controlling parameters for productivity and consequently optimum CO 2 storage capacity. Furthermore another key finding is the negligible correlation between CBP with reservoir transmissivity and porosity, which implies that other factors than just petrophysical parameters should be studied as constraining factors for CO 2 storage statistical analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Turbulence theories and statistical closure approaches

When discussing research in physics and in science more generally, it is common to ascribe equal importance to the three components of the scientific trinity: theoretical, experimental, and computational studies. This review will explore the future of modern turbulence theory by tracing its history, which began in earnest with Kolmogorov’s 1941 analysis of turbulence cascade and inertial range [A.N. Kolmogorov, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 30, 299, (1941); 32, 19, (1941)]. The 80th Anniversary of Kolmogorov’s landmark study is a welcome opportunity to survey the achievements and evaluate the future of the theoretical approach of turbulence research. Over the years, turbulence theories have been critically important in laying the foundation of our understanding of the nature of turbulent flows. In particular, the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA) [R.H. Kraichnan, J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497 (1959)] and its subsequent development, known as the statistical closure approach, can be identified as perhaps the most profound single advancement. The remarkable success of the statistical closure has furnished a platform to study such essential concepts as the energy transfer process and interacting scales, and the roles of the straining and sweeping motions. More recently, the quasi-Lagrangian formulation of V. L’vov & I. Procaccia and Kraichnan’s solvable passive scalar model provided powerful ways to explore another fundamental aspect of turbulent flows, the phenomena of intermittency, and the associated anomalous scaling exponents. In the meantime, the theory of fluid equilibria has been developed to describe the large-scale structures that can emerge from turbulent cascades of two-dimensional and geophysical flows at a later time. And yet, despite all these successes, analytical treatments suffer from mathematical complexities. As a result, the utility of theoretical approaches has been limited to relatively idealized flows. On the other hand, in recent decades, computational abilities and experimental facilities have reached an unprecedented scale. Looking beyond the horizon, the imminent deployment of exascale supercomputers will generate complete datasets of the entire flow field of key benchmark flows, allowing researchers to extract additional measurements concerning fully developed, complex turbulent flow fields far beyond those available from the statistical closure theories. Some other developments that could potentially influence the future course of turbulence theories include the advancement of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science; likely disruptions arising from the advent of quantum computation; and the increasingly prominent role of turbulence research in providing more accurate climate scientific data. Finally, turbulence theorists can leverage these developments by asking the right questions and developing advanced, sophisticated frameworks that will be able to predict and correlate vast amounts of data from the other two components of the trinity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Municipal solid waste composition: Sampling methodology, statistical analyses, and case study evaluation

Highlights: • Tiered approach to waste sorting ensures flexibility and facilitates comparison of solid waste composition data. • Food and miscellaneous wastes are the main fractions contributing to the residual household waste. • Separation of food packaging from food leftovers during sorting is not critical for determination of the solid waste composition. - Abstract: Sound waste management and optimisation of resource recovery require reliable data on solid waste generation and composition. In the absence of standardised and commonly accepted waste characterisation methodologies, various approaches have been reported in literature. This limits both comparability and applicability of the results. In this study, a waste sampling and sorting methodology for efficient and statistically robust characterisation of solid waste was introduced. The methodology was applied to residual waste collected from 1442 households distributed among 10 individual sub-areas in three Danish municipalities (both single and multi-family house areas). In total 17 tonnes of waste were sorted into 10–50 waste fractions, organised according to a three-level (tiered approach) facilitating comparison of the waste data between individual sub-areas with different fractionation (waste from one municipality was sorted at “Level III”, e.g. detailed, while the two others were sorted only at “Level I”). The results showed that residual household waste mainly contained food waste (42 ± 5%, mass per wet basis) and miscellaneous combustibles (18 ± 3%, mass per wet basis). The residual household waste generation rate in the study areas was 3–4 kg per person per week. Statistical analyses revealed that the waste composition was independent of variations in the waste generation rate. Both, waste composition and waste generation rates were statistically similar for each of the three municipalities. While the waste generation rates were similar for each of the two housing types (single-family and multi-family house areas), the individual percentage composition of food waste, paper, and glass was significantly different between the housing types. This indicates that housing type is a critical stratification parameter. Separating food leftovers from food packaging during manual sorting of the sampled waste did not have significant influence on the proportions of food waste and packaging materials, indicating that this step may not be required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Photon-number statistics of twin beams: Self-consistent measurement, reconstruction, and properties

A method for the determination of photon-number statistics of twin beams using the joint signal-idler photocount statistics obtained by an iCCD camera is described. It also provides absolute quantum detection efficiency of the camera. Using the measured photocount statistics, quasi-distributions of integrated intensities are obtained. They attain negative values occurring in characteristic strips an a consequence of pairing of photons in twin beams.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sanov and central limit theorems for output statistics of quantum Markov chains

In this paper, we consider the statistics of repeated measurements on the output of a quantum Markov chain. We establish a large deviations result analogous to Sanov’s theorem for the multi-site empirical measure associated to finite sequences of consecutive outcomes of a classical stochastic process. Our result relies on the construction of an extended quantum transition operator (which keeps track of previous outcomes) in terms of which we compute moment generating functions, and whose spectral radius is related to the large deviations rate function. As a corollary to this, we obtain a central limit theorem for the empirical measure. Such higher level statistics may be used to uncover critical behaviour such as dynamical phase transitions, which are not captured by lower level statistics such as the sample mean. As a step in this direction, we give an example of a finite system whose level-1 (empirical mean) rate function is independent of a model parameter while the level-2 (empirical measure) rate is not.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

A reductionist perspective on quantum statistical mechanics: Coarse-graining of path integrals

Computational modeling of the condensed phase based on classical statistical mechanics has been rapidly developing over the last few decades and has yielded important information on various systems containing up to millions of atoms. However, if a system of interest contains important quantum effects, well-developed classical techniques cannot be used. One way of treating finite temperature quantum systems at equilibrium has been based on Feynman’s imaginary time path integral approach and the ensuing quantum-classical isomorphism. This isomorphism is exact only in the limit of infinitely many classical quasiparticles representing each physical quantum particle. In this work, we present a reductionist perspective on this problem based on the emerging methodology of coarse-graining. This perspective allows for the representations of one quantum particle with only two classical-like quasiparticles and their conjugate momenta. One of these coupled quasiparticles is the centroid particle of the quantum path integral quasiparticle distribution. Only this quasiparticle feels the potential energy function. The other quasiparticle directly provides the observable averages of quantum mechanical operators. The theory offers a simplified perspective on quantum statistical mechanics, revealing its most reductionist connection to classical statistical physics. By doing so, it can facilitate a simpler representation of certain quantum effects in complex molecular environments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Generalized quantum statistics and Lie (super)algebras

Generalized quantum statistics, such as paraboson and parafermion statistics, are characterized by triple relations which are related to Lie (super)algebras of type B. The correspondence of the Fock spaces of parabosons, parafermions as well as the Fock space of a system of parafermions and parabosons to irreducible representations of (super)algebras of type B will be pointed out. Example of generalized quantum statistics connected to the basic classical Lie superalgebra B(1|1) ≡ osp(3|2) with interesting physical properties, such as noncommutative coordinates, will be given. Therefore the article focuses on the question, addressed already in 1950 by Wigner: do the equation of motion determine the quantum mechanical commutation relation?.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the fusion yield dependencies in OMEGA DT-layered implosion experiments using a physics-based statistical mapping model

Improving the performance of inertial confinement fusion implosions requires physics models that can accurately predict the response to changes in the experimental inputs. Good predictive capability has been demonstrated for the fusion yield using a statistical mapping of simulated outcomes to experimental data [Gopalaswamy et al., Nature 565(771), 581–586 (2019)]. In this paper, a physics-based statistical mapping approach is used to extract and quantify all the major sources of degradation of fusion yield for direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser. Here, the yield is found to be dependent on the age of the deuterium tritium fill, the ℓ = 1 asymmetry in the implosion core, the laser beam-to-target size ratio, and parameters related to the hydrodynamic stability. A controlled set of experiments were carried out where only the target fill age was varied while keeping all other parameters constant. The measurements were found to be in excellent agreement with the fill age dependency inferred using the mapping model. In addition, a new implosion design was created, guided by the statistical mapping model by optimizing the trade-offs between increased laser energy coupling at larger target size and the degradations caused by the laser beam-to-target size ratio and hydrodynamic instabilities. When experimentally performed, an increased fusion yield was demonstrated in targets with larger diameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical and systematic errors in the measurement of weak-lensing Minkowski functionals: Application to the Canada-France-Hawaii Lensing Survey

The measurement of cosmic shear using weak gravitational lensing is a challenging task that involves a number of complicated procedures. We study in detail the systematic errors in the measurement of weak-lensing Minkowski Functionals (MFs). Specifically, we focus on systematics associated with galaxy shape measurements, photometric redshift errors, and shear calibration correction. We first generate mock weak-lensing catalogs that directly incorporate the actual observational characteristics of the Canada-France-Hawaii Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). We then perform a Fisher analysis using the large set of mock catalogs for various cosmological models. We find that the statistical error associated with the observational effects degrades the cosmological parameter constraints by a factor of a few. The Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey with a sky coverage of ∼1400 deg{sup 2} will constrain the dark energy equation of the state parameter with an error of Δw {sub 0} ∼ 0.25 by the lensing MFs alone, but biases induced by the systematics can be comparable to the 1σ error. We conclude that the lensing MFs are powerful statistics beyond the two-point statistics only if well-calibrated measurement of both the redshifts and the shapes of source galaxies is performed. Finally, we analyze the CFHTLenS data to explore the ability of the MFs to break degeneracies between a few cosmological parameters. Using a combined analysis of the MFs and the shear correlation function, we derive the matter density Ω{sub m0}=0.256±{sub 0.046}{sup 0.054}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Lensing corrections to the E {sub g} ( z ) statistics from large scale structure

We study the impact of the often neglected lensing contribution to galaxy number counts on the E {sub g} statistics which is used to constrain deviations from GR. This contribution affects both the galaxy-galaxy and the convergence-galaxy spectra, while it is larger for the latter. At higher redshifts probed by upcoming surveys, for instance at z = 1.5, neglecting this term induces an error of (25–40)% in the spectra and therefore on the E {sub g} statistics which is constructed from the combination of the two. Moreover, including it, renders the E {sub g} statistics scale and bias-dependent and hence puts into question its very objective.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the \Lifshitz singularity" emerging in the onedimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However, the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, re ecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗