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At least 361 records · Page 20

Integration, Testing and Performance of the Infrared Multi-Object Spectrometer

The Infrared Multi-Object Spectrometer (IRMOS) is a principle investigator-class instrument for the Kitt Peak National Observatory 2.1 m and Mayall 3.8 m telescopes. IRMOS is a near-IR (0.8 - 2.5 micron) spectrometer with low-to mid-resolving power (R = lambda/delta lambda = 300 - 3000). On the 3.8 m telescope, IRMOS produces simultaneous spectra of approximately 100 objects in its approximately 3 x 2 arcmin field of view using a commercial micro electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) digital micro-mirror device (DMD) from Texas Instruments. The multi-mirror array DMD operates as a real-time programmable slit mask. The all-reflective optical design consists of two imaging subsystems. The focal reducer images the focal plane of the telescope onto the DMD field stop, and the spectrograph images the DMD onto a large-format detector. The instrument operates at approximately 80 K, cooled by a single electro-mechanical cryocooler. The bench and all components are made from aluminum 6061-T651. There are three cryogenic mechanisms. We describe laboratory integration and test of IRMOS before shipment to Kitt Peak. We give an overview of the optical alignment technique and integration of optical, mechanical, electrical and cryogenic subsystems. We compare optical test results to model predictions of point spread function size and morphology, contrast, and stray light. We discuss some lessons learned and conclude with a prediction for performance on the telescope.

Ohl, Raymond G.↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

Spectral Response and Effective Area Functions of the Hitomi Imaging Instruments

We describe the tools and the underlying methods and principles for generating the spectral response functions for the four imaging instruments that were flown on the Hitomi x-ray astronomy satellite [Soft X-ray Spectrometer, or SXS; Soft X-ray Imager, or SXI, and two Hard X-ray Imagers, or HXI]. In essence, the spectral response function is a temporally and spatially averaged effective area and line-spread-function. For model-fittingx-ray spectra from an instrument, the spectral response function encapsulates the end-to-end physics of the entire system from telescope to detector, and also includes satellite attitude drift, exposure corrections, and in the case of the HXIs, drift in the telescope/detector alignment system. Accuracy in the construction of the spectral response functions is, therefore, critical to maximize the science return from the data.

Yaqoob, Tahir↗

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A wideband channel model for land mobile satellite systems

A wideband channel model for Land Mobile Satellite (LMS) services is presented which characterizes the time-varying transmission channel between a satellite and a mobile user terminal. The channel model statistic parameters are the results of fitting procedures to measured data. The data used for fitting have a time resolution of 33 ns corresponding to a bandwidth of 30 MHz. Thus, the model is capable to characterize the channel behaviour for a wide range of services e.g., voice transmission, digital audio broadcasting (DAB), and spread spectrum modulation schemes. The model is presented for different environments and scenarios. The model is derived for a quasi-mobile user with hand-held terminal being in two different environments: rural and urban. The parameters needed for the description are (a) the number of echoes, (b) the distribution of the echo power, and (c) the distribution of the echo delay. It is shown that the direct path follows a Rician distribution whereas the reflected paths are Rayleigh/lognormal distributed. The parameters are given for an elevation angle of 25 deg.

Jahn, Axel↗

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ∼20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Indian monsoons↗

Analysis of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectra for gas-phase diagnostics

We present a hybrid frequency- and time-domain solution, applicable to the case of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS), for gas-phase diagnostics. A solution has been derived based on both physical arguments and four-wave mixing equations for picosecond CARS, with pulse durations that are comparable to the dephasing time scale for gas-phase Raman coherence—a regime where commonly employed solutions for impulsive (femtosecond) or cw (nanosecond) pump/Stokes forcing are not strictly valid. We present the ps-CARS spectrum in the form of incoherent sums of CARS intensity spectra, calculated from the fundamental solution for impulsive pump/Stokes Raman preparation. The solution was examined for temperatures from 1000–3000 K, for four plausible experimental configurations, with laser pulse durations of 50–150 ps, and probe pulse delays from −20 to 240 ps. Approximations based on cw and impulsive pump/Stokes preparation to fit picosecond CARS spectra at atmospheric pressure were examined and the relative thermometric accuracy and computational cost of these approximations were quantified for the case of a zero nonresonant CARS contribution, and a nonresonant susceptibility equal to 10% of the Raman-resonant value at the N 2 bandhead. The nanosecond CARS approximation can result in large fitting errors when the probe pulse time delay is less than the probe pulse duration. Errors as large as 10–20% are observed in the fit temperatures for a zero picosecond probe pulse delay, when the nonresonant background is neglected, largely due to an inability of the time-independent cw model to capture transient frequency spread dephasing effects at the Q -branch bandhead. The inclusion of a nonresonant background results in 40–60% thermometry errors with a nanosecond model at a zero-probe delay. Time-dependent impulsive calculations used for femtosecond CARS better approximate the structure of the N 2 bandhead, reducing temperature fitting errors to 5–10% at a short probe pulse delay. The impulsive approximation results in errors up to 10% at intermediate probe pulse delays, where the coherence of the pump and probe pulses leads to multiple terms in the picosecond CARS solution. Both approximations improve as the probe pulse delay exceeds the probe duration. The nanosecond approximation results in a 2–3% error, while the impulsive model results in differences of less than 1% in some cases. Fits to experimental data obtained using short, ∼60ps pulses at a zero probe time delay and longer 100 ps pulses at a substantial 200 ps delay are presented with accuracies of 1–3% in the fit temperature.

Kearney, Sean P.↗

Probabilistic Topography Project Update 5/20 [Slides]

Problem/Goal: Earth System Models (ESMs) do not accurately predict fire spread. There are no effects from topography/vegetation heterogeneity below the model’s scale (100-200km). Use physics based models (FIRETEC and QUICFIRE) to produce an archive of correction factors for SPITFIRE (chosen ESM). This project will: Use datasets to create PDFs of slope & aspect, vegetation distribution; Create joint distribution and sample to make new domain; Run FIRETEC & QUICFIRE on created domain, record output (area burned, intensity, etc.); and Use output to create PDF of correction factors for SPITFIRE runs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fluid Management of and Flame Spread Across Liquid Pools

The goal of our research on flame spread across pools of liquid fuel remains the quantitative identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the initial temperature of the liquid pool is below the fuel's flash point temperature. As described in, four microgravity (mu-g) sounding rocket flights examined the effect of forced opposed airflow over a 2.5 cm deep x 2 cm wide x 30 cm long pool of 1-butanol. Among many unexpected findings, it was observed that the flame spread is much slower and steadier than in 1g where flame spread has a pulsating character. Our numerical model, restricted to two dimensions, had predicted faster, pulsating flame spread in mu-g. In a test designed to achieve a more 2-D experiment, our investigation of a shallow, wide pool (2 mm deep x 78 mm wide x 30 cm long) was unsuccessful in mu-g, due to an unexpectedly long time required to fill the tray. As such, the most recent Spread Across Liquids (SAL) sounding rocket experiment had two principal objectives: 1) determine if pulsating flame spread in deep fuel trays would occur under the conditions that a state-of-the-art computational combustion code and short-duration drop tower tests predict; and 2) determine if a long, rectangular, shallow fuel tray could achieve a visibly flat liquid surface across the whole tray without spillage in the mu-g time allotted. If the second objective was met, the shallow tray was to be ignited to determine the nature of flame spread in mu-g for this geometry. For the first time in the experiment series, two fuel trays - one deep (30 cm long x 2 cm wide x 25 mm deep) and one shallow (same length and width, but 2 mm deep)-- were flown. By doing two independent experiments in a single flight, a significant cost savings was realized. In parallel, the computational objective was to modify the code to improve agreement with earlier results. This last objective was achieved by modifying the fuel mass diffusivity and adding a parameter to correct for radiative and lateral heat loss.

Ross, H. D.↗

Effect of Wind Velocity on Flame Spread in Microgravity

A three-dimensional, time-dependent model is developed describing ignition and subsequent transition to flame spread over a thermally thin cellulosic sheet heated by external radiation in a microgravity environment. A low Mach number approximation to the Navier Stokes equations with global reaction rate equations describing combustion in the gas phase and the condensed phase is numerically solved. The effects of a slow external wind (1-20 cm/s) on flame transition are studied in an atmosphere of 35% oxygen concentration. The ignition is initiated at the center part of the sample by generating a line-shape flame along the width of the sample. The calculated results are compared with data obtained in the 10s drop tower. Numerical results exhibit flame quenching at a wind speed of 1.0 cm/s, two localized flames propagating upstream along the sample edges at 1.5 cm/s, a single line-shape flame front at 5.0 cm/s, three flames structure observed at 10.0 cm/s (consisting of a single line-shape flame propagating upstream and two localized flames propagating downstream along sample edges) and followed by two line-shape flames (one propagating upstream and another propagating downstream) at 20.0 cm/s. These observations qualitatively compare with experimental data. Three-dimensional visualization of the observed flame complex, fuel concentration contours, oxygen and reaction rate isosurfaces, convective and diffusive mass flux are used to obtain a detailed understanding of the controlling mechanism, Physical arguments based on lateral diffusive flux of oxygen, fuel depletion, oxygen shadow of the flame and heat release rate are constructed to explain the various observed flame shapes.

Prasad, Kuldeep↗

Potentially adaptive SARS-CoV-2 mutations discovered with novel spatiotemporal and explainable AI models

Abstract Background A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp 614 Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro 323 Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus. Conclusions These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reliable Measures of Spread in High Dimensional Latent Spaces

Understanding geometric properties of the latent spaces of natural language processing models allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model’s latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. We demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, average cosine similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I (V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across data distributions. We propose and examine six alternative measures of data spread, all of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Abstract The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high‐resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m −2 K −1 ) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean‐state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real‐time during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geology and structure of Beta Regio, Venus - Results from Arecibo radar imaging

Arecibo radar images of a portion of the equatorial region of Venus provide the first high resolution (1.5- to 2.0-km) synoptic coverage of Beta Regio. Within this area, tessera, a complex deformed terrain, is identified as a major geologic unit with the largest region corresponding to a plateau on the east flank of the highland. Three models are proposed to explain the origin and evolution of Beta Regio and are identified as Mantle Plume/Passive Crust, Mantle Plume/Active Crust, and Mantle Plume/Crustal Spreading. The Mantle Plume/Passive Crust model appears to be the most consistent with the geology in this region and suggests that a plume disrupts a preexisting region of tessera.

Senske, D. A.↗

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spreading of thermonuclear flames on the neutron star in SAX J1808.4-3658: an observational tool

We analyse archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) proportional counter array (PCA) data of thermonuclear X-ray bursts from the 2002 outburst of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX 51808.4-3658. We present evidence of a complex frequency modulation of oscillations during burst rise, and correlations among the time evolution of the oscillation frequency, amplitude, and the inferred burning region area. We discuss these findings in the context of a model, based on thermonuclear flame spreading on the neutron star surface, that can qualitatively explain these features. From our model, we infer that for the 2002 Oct. 15 thermonuclear burst, the ignition likely occurred in the mid-latitudes, the burning region took approx. 0.2 s to nearly encircle the equatorial region of the neutron star, and after that the lower amplitude oscillation originated from the remaining asymmetry of the burning front in the same hemisphere where the burst ignited. We emphasize that studies of the evolution of burst oscillation properties during burst rise can provide a powerful tool to understand thermonuclear flame spreading on neutron star surfaces under extreme physical conditions.

Bhattacharyya, Sudip↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Modeling Tides, Planetary Waves, and Equatorial Oscillations in the MLT

Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for gravity waves (GW), our 3D model reproduces some essential features that characterize the observed seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. In 2D, our model also reproduces the large Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) observed in this region at low latitudes. It is more challenging to describe these features combined in a more comprehensive self consistent model, and we give a progress report that outlines the difficulties and reports some success. In 3D, the GW's are partially absorbed by tides and planetary waves to amplify them. Thus the waves are less efficient in generating the QBO and SAO at equatorial latitudes. Some of this deficiency is compensated by the fact that the GW activity is observed to be enhanced at low latitudes. Increasing the GW source has the desired effect to boost the QBO, but the effect is confined primarily to the stratosphere. With increasing altitude, the meridional circulation becomes more important in redistributing the momentum deposited in the background flow by the GW's. Another factor involved is the altitude at which the GW's originate, which we had originally chosen to be the surface. Numerical experiments show that moving this source altitude to the top of the troposphere significantly increases the efficiency for generating the QBO without affecting much the tides and planetary waves in the model. Attention to the details in which the GW source comes into play thus appears to be of critical importance in modeling the phenomenology of the MLT. Among the suite of numerical experiments reported, we present a simulation that produced significant variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. The effect is related to the QBO generated in the model, and GW filtering is the likely cause.

Mengel, J. G.↗