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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models

Responses to challenges associated with verification and validation (V&V) of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA), which has gained acceptance by various principals in the NASA community, defines efficient and accurate FEM modal sensitivity models that are useful in test-analysis correlation and reconciliation and parametric uncertainty studies. (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976), developed to remedy difficulties encountered with the widely used Classical Guyan Reduction (CGR) method, are presented. MGR and HR are particularly relevant for estimation of "body dominant" target modes of shell-type SLS assemblies that have numerous "body", "breathing" and local component constituents. Realities associated with configuration features and "imperfections" cause "body" and "breathing" mode characteristics to mix resulting in a lack of clarity in the understanding and correlation of FEM- and test-derived modal data. (3) Mode Consolidation (MC) is a newly introduced procedure designed to effectively "de-feature" FEM and experimental modes of detailed structural shell assemblies for unambiguous estimation of "body" dominant target modes. Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV) is a procedure that addresses ambiguities associated with experimental modal analysis of complex structural systems. Specifically, EMV directly separates well-defined modal data from spurious and poorly excited modal data employing newly introduced graphical and coherence metrics.

Coppolino, Robert N.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Structural Evaluation of Uncertainties in Radiator Sandwich Panel Design

The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Space System is part of the NASA's Prometheus Program. As part of the JIMO engineering team at NASA Glenn Research Center, the structural design of the JIMO Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) is evaluated. An initial goal of this study was to perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of the input variables on the structural responses of the radiator panel. The desire was to let the sensitivity analysis information identify the important parameters. The probabilistic analysis methods illustrated here support this objective. The probabilistic structural performance evaluation of a HRS radiator sandwich panel was performed. The radiator panel structural performance was assessed in the presence of uncertainties in the loading, fabrication process variables, and material properties. The stress and displacement contours of the deterministic structural analysis at mean probability was performed and results presented. It is followed by a probabilistic evaluation to determine the effect of the primitive variables on the radiator panel structural performance. Based on uncertainties in material properties, structural geometry and loading, the results of the displacement and stress analysis are used as an input file for the probabilistic analysis of the panel. The sensitivity of the structural responses, such as maximum displacement and maximum tensile and compressive stresses of the facesheet in x and y directions and maximum VonMises stresses of the tube, to the loading and design variables is determined under the boundary condition where all edges of the radiator panel are pinned. Based on this study, design critical material and geometric parameters of the considered sandwich panel are identified.

Kuguoglu, Latife↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity analysis of in-pile critical heat flux experiments in TREAT for characterization of RIA power-transient effects

A reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is one type of postulated design basis accident (DBA) that can cause a departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) event in pressurized-water reactors (PWRs). A DNB occurrence and its consequences depend on the thermophysical properties of the fuel components and coolant, characteristics of the transient energy insertion into the fuel rod, and the onset of the critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon. To leverage the restart of the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility, an effort is currently underway to better understand the cladding-to-coolant heat transfer mechanisms and the CHF phenomenon under fast-transient irradiation conditions. This paper characterizes the impact of power transients on the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a TREAT Facility reactor heater rodlet CHF experiment to provide the priority of parameters that need to be investigated for an improved CHF model. Sobol sensitivity analysis methods and the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) code were used to identify key input parameters on the uncertainty in the prediction of peak outer- and inner-surface temperatures of the heater tube, as well as the time of the DNB event. A series of sensitivity analyses revealed the total energy deposition on the tube and the transient effects of power pulse had large impacts on the maximum temperatures. The CHF multiplier had the largest impact on the time occurrence of CHF. The overall results show the energy deposition rate in the tube is the most influencing factor to the manifestation of CHF and the resulting thermal-hydraulic behaviors of the tube. The multiplier for the CHF, which is interpreted as the predicted CHF value, has the largest Sobol indices for the time of the CHF in all cases, since it directly determines the occurrence of CHF. It is inferred that the uncertainties in the thermal-hydraulic behaviors of fuels increase with respect to the key parameters as the power pulse becomes broader, and an accurate estimation of the energy deposition rate is required to reduce the uncertainty in the evaluation of the integrity of fuel if the CHF is expected to occur near the peak power. Therefore, the outputs are expected to provide rigorous interpretation of ongoing in-pile CHF experiments in the TREAT Facility reactor regarding thermal-hydraulic behavior of the fuel system aiming for a new transient in-pile CHF model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Assessment of Uncertainty in the Determination of Activation Energy for Polymeric Materials

An assessment of the experimental uncertainty in obtaining the kinetic activation energy from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data is presented. A neat phenolic resin, Borden SC1O08, was heated at three heating rates to obtain weight loss vs temperature data. Activation energy was calculated by two methods: the traditional Flynn and Wall method based on the slope of log(q) versus 1/T, and a modification of this method where the ordinate and abscissa are reversed in the linear regression. The modified method produced a more accurate curve fit of the data, was more sensitive to data nonlinearity, and gave a value of activation energy 75 percent greater than the original method. An uncertainty analysis using the modified method yielded a 60 percent uncertainty in the average activation energy. Based on this result, the activation energy for a carbon-phenolic material was doubled and used to calculate the ablation rate In a typical solid rocket environment. Doubling the activation energy increased surface recession by 3 percent. Current TGA data reduction techniques that use the traditional Flynn and Wall approach to calculate activation energy should be changed to the modified method.

Darby, Stephania P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic progressive buckling of trusses

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to describe progressive buckling and truss collapse in view of the numerous uncertainties associated with the structural, material, and load variables that describe the truss. Initially, the truss is deterministically analyzed for member forces, and members in which the axial force exceeds the Euler buckling load are identified. These members are then discretized with several intermediate nodes, and a probabilistic buckling analysis is performed on the truss to obtain its probabilistic buckling loads and the respective mode shapes. Furthermore, sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the primitive variables are investigated, margin of safety values for the truss are determined, and truss end node displacements are noted. These steps are repeated by sequentially removing buckled members until onset of truss collapse is reached. Results show that this procedure yields an optimum truss configuration for a given loading and for a specified reliability.

PROBABILISTIC BUCKLING ANALYSI↗
NASA NTRS2002

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Plutonium Mass Uncertainty Assessment Using a Cherenkov-Based Neutron Multiplicity Water Detector

We present a new analysis of the sensitivity of a water Cherenkov-based neutron multiplicity counter for nondestructive assay of trace quantities of 240 Pu. The multiplicity counter [water-based neutron detector (WaND)] contains 1.0 m 3 of water doped with 0.2% gadolinium in the form of a gadolinium salt (0.4% GdCl 3 ). It can be used for testing the presence of trace quantities of 240 Pu within a sample of unknown material by observing the correlated timing behavior of neutron capture candidates in the detector. The new analysis takes advantage of the fact that the detector is comprised almost entirely of a homogeneous medium, which permits the use of a simple model to reproduce the observed neutron capture timing behavior. Finally, the results of this analysis indicate that the detector has an absolute neutron detection efficiency of 23.4 ± 1.1% and is sensitive to a 240 Pu mass as small as 2.3 mg (at 1σ) after a 1-h data acquisition.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Sensitivity Analysis for Sensors Impacts on Building Control Performance

This report describes the preliminary sensitivity analysis for sensor impacts on building control performance through the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP-2) building. The rooftop unit system provides cooling and heating to the building. The main heating coil is a gas heating coil. Each zone is served by a variable air volume box with an electricity reheat coil. The rooftop unit and variable air volume box controls adopted the practical control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. For sensors, the incipient (time-changing) sensor errors, including bias sensor error and precision sensor error, are the inputs of interest. The outputs are energy consumption and thermal comfort (e.g., the predicted percentage of dissatisfied occupants). The large-scale simulation (3,600 cases) was conducted on a cloud platform by integrating sensor errors and ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences into an emulator based on the EnergyPlus simulation program with Python energy management system feature. The surrogate models were developed based on cloud simulation results. The uncertainty analysis showed that the sensor errors substantially affect building energy consumption and thermal comfort. The sensitivity analysis shows a ranking of sensor error impacts for each interested output item (e.g., cooling energy, reheat coil heating energy, predicted percentage of dissatisfied occupants). In FY 2022, sensor locations, types, and costs will be evaluated. The field test in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform building regarding sensor impacts will also be performed. Finally, a comparative analysis will be conducted based on the field test results and emulator results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into pathological mechanisms and interventions revealed by analyzing a mathematical model for cone metabolism

This work analyzes a mathematical model for the metabolic dynamics of a cone photoreceptor, which is the first model to account for energy generation from fatty acids oxidation of shed photoreceptor outer segments (POS). Multiple parameter bifurcation analysis shows that joint variations in external glucose, the efficiency of glucose transporter 1 (GLUT1), lipid utilization for POS renewal, and oxidation of fatty acids affect the cone’s metabolic vitality and its capability to adapt under glucose-deficient conditions. The analysis further reveals that when glucose is scarce, cone viability cannot be sustained by only fueling energy production in the mitochondria, but it also requires supporting anabolic processes to create lipids necessary for cell maintenance and repair. In silico experiments are used to investigate how the duration of glucose deprivation impacts the cell without and with a potential GLUT1 or oxidation of fatty acids intervention as well as a dual intervention. The results show that for prolonged duration of glucose deprivation, the cone metabolic system does not recover with higher oxidation of fatty acids and requires greater effectiveness of GLUT1 to recover. Finally, time-varying global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is applied to assess the sensitivity of the model outputs of interest to changes and uncertainty in the parameters at specific times. The results reveal a critical temporal window where there would be more flexibility for interventions to rescue a cone cell from the detrimental consequences of glucose shortage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sensitivity of satellite-derived net shortwave irradiance at the Earth's surface to radiometric calibration

The effect of radiometric calibration uncertainties on satellite-derived net shortwave irradiance at the Earth's surface was examined. Net shortwave irradiance sensitivity to calibration is expressed as a function of two basic components that depend on surface and cloud albedo sensitivities, respectively. The analysis of these sensitivities for a wide range of atmospheric and surface conditions, as well as radiation geometries, shows that a 10 percent uncertainty in the calibration induces up to 40 W/sqm errors in instantaneous net shortwave irradiance (negative when the calibration uncertainty is positive). The maximum relative errors are obtained in overcast conditions when cloud albedos are high. On a monthly time scale, the induced error becomes typically 13 W/sqm in the tropics and 16 W/sqm in higher latitude regions during summer. The error almost vanishes at high latitudes during winter. A 10 percent positive uncertainty in the calibration gives a net shortwave irradiance error similar to that induced by the 3 hr sampling of the ISCCP Project.

Gautier, C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

HFBTHO-AD: Differentiation of a nuclear energy density functional code

The HFBTHO code implements a nuclear energy density functional solver to model the structure of atomic nuclei. HFBTHO has previously been used to calibrate energy functionals and perform sensitivity analysis by using derivative-free methods. To enable derivative-based optimization and uncertainty quantification approaches, we must compute the derivatives of HFBTHO outputs with respect to the parameters of the energy functional, which are a subset of all input parameters of the code. Here, we use the algorithmic/automatic differentiation (AD) tool Tapenade to differentiate HFBTHO. We compare the derivatives obtained using AD against finite-difference approximation and examine the performance of the derivative computation.

Algorithmic differentiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Metallic Fuel Performance Benchmark Problem Based on the IFR-1 Experiment

Metallic nuclear fuels are an active area of research and development for use in advanced reactors. Robust and accurate metallic fuel performance models are necessary for the design, safety analysis, and licensing of such reactors. However, metallic fuel performance models are not as mature as ceramic fuel performance models and require additional development. In order to better gauge the accuracy of existing models, identify high-priority models for development, and quantify the improvements made by future model development, ORNL has developed a benchmark problem based on the IFR-1 experiment. This work gathers all relevant information on the IFR-1 experiment and uses it to develop the benchmark problem. It simulates the problem using the fuel performance code BISON and compare the results to post-irradiation examination data from the experiment. Then a sensitivity analysis is performed on the BISON model to determine the benchmark problem’s sensitivity to uncertainty in the input parameters. The results suggest that BISON’s mechanical models require additional development. Plastic deformation is under-predicted in the cladding and axial swelling is over-predicted in the fuel. These problems may be related. Additionally, there is a bias in the temperature which may be a result of uncertainty in the input parameters rather than an issue with the fuel performance models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reconciling Scientific Aspirations and Engineering Constraints for a Lunar Mission via Hyperdimensional Interpolation

Virtually every NASA space-exploration mission represents a compromise between the interests of two expert, dedicated, but very different communities: scientists, who want to go quickly to the places that interest them most and spend as much time there as possible conducting sophisticated experiments, and the engineers and designers charged with maximizing the probability that a given mission will be successful and cost-effective. Recent work at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) seeks to enhance communication between these two groups, and to help them reconcile their interests, by developing advanced modeling capabilities with which they can analyze the achievement of science goals and objectives against engineering design and operational constraints. The analyses conducted prior to this study have been point-design driven. Each analysis has been of one hypothetical case which addresses the question: Given a set of constraints, how much science can be done? But the constraints imposed by the architecture team-e.g., rover speed, time allowed for extravehicular activity (EVA), number of sites at which science experiments are to be conducted- are all in early development and carry a great deal of uncertainty. Variations can be incorporated into the analysis, and indeed that has been done in sensitivity studies designed to see which constraint variations have the greatest impact on results. But if a very large number of variations can be analyzed all at once, producing a table that includes virtually the entire trade space under consideration, then we have a tool that enables scientists and mission architects to ask the inverse question: For a given desired level of science (or any other objective), what is the range of constraints that would be needed? With this tool, mission architects could determine, for example, what combinations of rover speed, EVA duration, and other constraints produce the desired results. Further, this tool would help them identify which technology-improvement investments would be likely to produce the largest or most important return. However, the number of variations that need to be considered for such analysis quickly balloons to an unwieldy size. If three variations are considered for each of six constraints-a very modest example-there are a total of 243 variations to consider. If it takes 40 minutes to compute each variation, as it does with HURON, our automated optimization system, then it would take 162 hours or nearly 7 days of round-the-clock computing to calculate the results. Adding further constraints or variations exponentially increases the amount of time that is needed.

Weisbin, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inverse Estimation of Mars 2020 Entry Aeroheating Environments Using MEDLI2 Flight Data

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected heating and pressure data during entry into Mars' atmosphere of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover. MEDLI2 included thermocouples, heat flux sensors, and pressure transducers on both the heatshield and the backshell. This paper covers the inverse estimation of heatshield and backshell surface heating based on the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs), a network of thermocouples embedded in thermal protection system plugs across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate and temperature to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties such as density, specific heat capacity, and thermal conductivity. Data from each MISP was also used to estimate the local time of transition from laminar to turbulent flow at each plug location.

Hannah S Alpert↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced-order Modeling for Spacecraft Thermal-structural Applications

Leveraging the speed of reduced-order models (ROMs), thermal analysis teams have previously had access to rapid optimization, sensitivity studies, rapid model correlation, and uncertainty quantification, to name a few. An advantage of the developed approach is its relative robustness, which enabled expansion to include structural models in addition to thermal models leading to both rapid thermal-structural and rapid structural-only analyses. This method was tested for a sample thermal-structural application and showed good performance. It was then applied to a complex NASA mission and showed how ROMs could be used to quickly evaluate system uncertainties. Finally, these methods were applied to a structural-only application and used to better optimize and understand the structural design.

Derek Hengeveld↗
NASA NTRS2015

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

error analysis↗