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Improved reference models for middle atmosphere ozone

This paper describes the improvements introduced into the original version of ozone reference model of Keating and Young (1985, 1987) which is to be incorporated in the next COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). The ozone reference model will provide information on the global ozone distribution (including the ozone vertical structure as a function of month and latitude from 25 to 90 km) combining data from five recent satellite experiments: the Nimbus 7 LIMS, Nimbus 7 SBUV, AE-2 Stratospheric Aerosol Gas Experiment (SAGE), Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UV Spectrometer, and SME 1.27 Micron Airglow. The improved version of the reference model uses reprocessed AE-2 SAGE data (sunset) and extends the use of SAGE data from 1981 to the 1981-1983 time period. Comparisons are presented between the results of this ozone model and various nonsatellite measurements at different levels in the middle atmosphere.

Keating, G. M.↗

Improved reference models for middle atmosphere ozone

Improvements are provided for the ozone reference model which is to be incorporated in the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). The ozone reference model will provide considerable information on the global ozone distribution, including ozone vertical structure as a function of month and latitude from approximately 25 to 90 km, combining data from five recent satellite experiments (Nimbus 7 LIMS, Nimbus 7 SBUV, AE-2 SAGE, Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UVS, and SME IR). The improved models are described and use reprocessed AE-2 SAGE data (sunset) and extend the use of SAGE data from 1981 to the period 1981-1983. Comparisons are shown between the ozone reference model and various nonsatellite measurements at different levels in the middle atmosphere.

Keating, G. M.↗

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II measurements of the quasi-biennial oscillations in ozone and nitrogen dioxide

The first measurements ever to show a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in NO2 have been made by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II) (SAGE II) and are presented in this work along with observations of the well-known QBO in stratospheric ozone. The SAGE II instrument was launched aboard the Earth Radiation Budget satellite near the end of 1984. Measurements of ozone and nitrogen dioxide through early 1990 are analyzed for the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation. The measurements show the global extent of both the O3 and NO2 QBO in the 25- to 40-km region of the stratosphere. The SAGE II QBO results for ozone compare favorably to theory and previous measurements. The QBO in NO2 is found to be consistent with the vertical and horizontal transport of NOy. Both species exhibit a QBO at extratropical latitudes consistent with strong meridional transport into the winter hemisphere.

Zawodny, Joseph M.↗

Algorithms and sensitivity analyses for Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II water vapor retrieval

The operational inversion algorithm used for the retrieval of the water-vapor vertical profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) occultation data is presented. Unlike the algorithm used for the retrieval of aerosol, O3, and NO2, the water-vapor retrieval algorithm accounts for the nonlinear relationship between the concentration versus the broad-band absorption characteristics of water vapor. Problems related to the accuracy of the computational scheme, the accuracy of the removal of other interfering species, and the expected uncertainty of the retrieved profile are examined. Results are presented on the error analysis of the SAGE II water vapor retrieval, indicating that the SAGE II instrument produced good quality water vapor data.

Chu, W. P.↗

Coupling between middle atmosphere trend estimates and solar effects in ozone vertical structure

Studies are performed on both the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II (1985-1989) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrometer (SBUV)-Version 6 (1979-1986) global ozone vertical structure satellite data sets to determine the long-term trends in ozone as a function of altitude (pressure) and latitude. SAGE II data are only available during the period of increasing solar activity and show increases in ozone with time in the upper stratosphere which are attributed largely to rising solar activity. Looking at this data set independently, the solar effects and trends are highly coupled and cannot be clearly separated. However, a study of combined SBUV and SAGE II data over the 11-year solar cycle shows a clear response of ozone to 11-year solar variations and allows a decoupling of solar effects, quasibiennial oscillations (QBO), and trends. The detailed pattern of long-term ozone trends become clear using this approach. In the upper stratosphere, ozone depletion increases sharply with latitude. Global trends are fairly symmetric about the equator but are somewhat stronger in the Southern Hemisphere. Near the equator, some layers of ozone are decreasing with time while others appear to be increasing. Near 30 mb, there is evidence of intrusion to mid latitudes of high latitude negative trends. Near 15 mb, trends appear to be very weak. Near the tropopause there appears to be strong ozone depletion on a global scale. Two regions of unexpectedly strong ozone response to 11-year solar variations were detected: the first near 2 mb and the second near 30 mb at low latitudes and near 15 mb at mid latitudes.

Keating, G. M.↗

Balloon profiles of stratospheric NO2 and HNO3 for testing the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols

Simultaneous in situ measurements of stratospheric NO2, HNO3, HCl, and CH4 from 34 to 24 km were made in August 1992 from Palestine, Texas, using the Balloon-borne Laser In-Situ Sensor (BLISS) tunable diode laser spectrometer. Although the measurements of NO2, HNO3, and NO2/HNO3 agree well with gas-phase model calculations near 34 km where Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) 2 data show little sulfate aerosol, this is not true at the lower altitudes where SAGE 2 shows high aerosol loadings. At 24 km the BLISS NO2 and HNO3 measurements are 70% lower and 50% higher, respectively, than the gas phase model predictions, with a measured NO2/HNO3 ratio 5 times smaller. When the heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 and ClONO2 on sulfate aerosol of surface area densities matching the SAGE 2 measurements is added to the model, good agreement with the BLISS measurements is found over the whole altitude range.

Webster, C. R.↗

Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements

Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses implicating manmade fluorocarbons as cause of the --'ozone hole'; (5) The current soot loading is too small to be of environmental (radiative and chemical) consequence. However, the fractal nature of soot distinguishes it aerodynamically and radiatively from sulfuric acid droplets such that its stratospheric residence time is longer, mainly because of vertical transport against gravity due to gravito-photophoretic forces. Thus it may accumulate and become of environmental concern in the future.

Pueschel, Rudolf, F.↗

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗

Development of a Stirling System Dynamic Model With Enhanced Thermodynamics

The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.

Regan, Timothy F.↗

Ozone Observations by the Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor during SOLVE II

The Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor (GAMS) was deployed aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). GAMS acquired line-of-sight (LOS) direct solar irradiance spectra during the sunlit portions of ten science flights of the DC-8 between 12 January and 4 February 2003. Differential line-of-sight (DLOS) optical depth spectra are produced from the GAMS raw solar irradiance spectra. Then, DLOS ozone number densities are retrieved from the GAMS spectra using a multiple linear regression spectral fitting technique. Both the DLOS optical depth spectra and retrieved ozone data are compared with coincident measurements from two other solar instruments aboard the DC-8 platform to demonstrate the robustness and stability of the GAMS data. The GAMS ozone measurements are then utilized to evaluate the quality of the Wulf band ozone cross sections, a critical component of the SAGE III aerosol, water vapor, and temperature/pressure retrievals. Results suggest the ozone cross section compilation of Shettle and Anderson currently used operationally in SAGE III data processing may be in error by as much as 10-20% in theWulf bands, and their lack of reported temperature dependence is a significant deficiency. A second, more recent, cross section database compiled for the SCIAMACHY satellite mission appears to be of much better quality in the Wulf bands, but still may have errors as large as 5% near the Wulf band absorption peaks, which is slightly larger than their stated uncertainty. Additional laboratory measurements of the Wulf band cross sections should be pursued to further reduce their uncertainty and better quantify their temperature dependence.

Pitts, M. C.↗

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via Modified Efficient Global Optimization

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use the EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO method consists of first conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple new test points at each iteration. This modification facilitates parallel computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the optimizer code is not integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those identified in the previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational savings if the initial Design of Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately.

Moeller, Timothy M.↗

Development of a Phasor Diagram Creator to Visualize the Piston and Displacer Forces in an Advanced Stirling Convertor

The steady state, nearly sinusoidal behavior of the components in a Free Piston Stirling Engine allows for visualization of the forces in the system using phasor diagrams. Based on Newton's second law, F=ma, any phasor diagrams modeling a given component in a system should close if all of the acting forces have been considered. Since the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), currently being developed for future NASA deep space missions, is made up of such nearly sinusoidally oscillating components, its phasor diagrams would also be expected to close. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been written in MATLAB by taking user input data, passing it to Sage, a 1-D thermodynamic modeling program used to model the Stirling convertor, running Sage and then automatically plotting the phasor diagrams. Using this software tool, the effect of varying different Sage inputs on the phasor diagrams was determined. The parameters varied were piston amplitude, hot end temperature, cold end temperature, operating frequency, and displacer spring constant. By using these phasor diagrams, better insight can be gained as to why the convertor operates the way that it does.

Saha, Dipanjan↗

Development of a Phasor Diagram Creator to Visualize the Piston and Displacer Forces in an Advanced Stirling Convertor

The steady-state, nearly sinusoidal behavior of the components in a free-piston Stirling engine allows for visualization of the forces in the system using phasor diagrams. Based on Newton's second law, F = ma, any phasor diagrams modeling a given component in a system should close if all of the acting forces have been considered. Since the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), currently being developed for future NASA deep space missions, is made up of such nearly sinusoidally oscillating components, its phasor diagrams would also be expected to close. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been written in MATLAB (MathWorks), which takes user input data, passes it to Sage (Gedeon Associates), a one-dimensional thermodynamic modeling program used to model the Stirling convertor, runs Sage, and then automatically plots the phasor diagrams. Using this software tool, the effect of varying different Sage inputs on the phasor diagrams was determined. The parameters varied were piston amplitude, hot-end temperature, cold-end temperature, operating frequency, and displacer spring constant. These phasor diagrams offer useful insight into convertor operation and performance.

Saha, Dipanjan↗

Convective Transport and Evolution of Clouds and aerosols in the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The existence of a persistent layer in the lowermost stratosphere in the Asian Monsoon region is well-known and has been observed by satellites and also in situ by balloon-borne sensors. This aerosol layer has been observed to persist every year by both SAGE sensors and by CALIOP, between the tropopause and the lower boundary of the Junge stratospheric sulfate layer. But how does this layer form and why? Apparently, aerosols are lofted by convection form the Indian and Asian continents, into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) area in the middle of a persistent anticyclone associate with the Asian summer monsoon. But some mysteries remain. The top of this aerosol layer is well above the altitude of maximum convective outflow, so why is the top of the aerosol layer so high? Are the aerosols coming from China or from India? And finally, is there an observable impact of these aerosol on thin cirrus distributions in the UT/LS? We explore the interesting difference in altitude between the ATAL layer and the convective cloud top height, using observations from CALIOP and from SAGE. In the process of doing this we examine the accuracy of both CALIOP and SAGE cloud/aerosol discrimination, and the impact of various averaging lengths. We compare the apparent "observational tropopause" with observations from COSMIC, CALIOP (clouds), and with modeled interpolation from MERRA-2. We also compare CALIOP and CloudSat daytime cloud top heights for convective clouds with the vertical aerosol distribution, and evaluate convection in this region as represented by MERRA-2. Finally, and maybe most importantly we compare convective cloud top heights and temperatures with diurnal variability during the most recent years by using observations from the geostationary Himawari satellite. How representative are the twice-daily A-Train observations, when compared to the natural diurnal variability of convection? The goal is to establish the origins of these UT/LS aerosols, whether these aerosol distributions can be completely explained by convective transport, and to evaluate convective lofting of aerosol by models. Ultimately, the convective lofting of aerosols as modeled is needed to explain the Asian Monsoon aerosol distributions. The observations contribute much-needed information to enhance the model accuracy.

clouds↗

Retrieval of Stratospheric Aerosol Size Distribution Parameters Using Satellite Solar Occultation Measurements at Three Wavelengths

In this work, a novel approach for the determination of the particle size distribution (PSD) parameters of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is presented. For this, ratios of extinction coefficients obtained from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station) solar occultation measurements at 449, 756 and 1544 nm were used to retrieve the mode width and median radius of a size distribution assumed to be monomodal lognormal. The estimated errors at the peak of the stratospheric aerosol layer, on average, lie between 20% and 25% for the median radius and 5% and 7% for the mode width. The results are consistent in magnitude with other retrieval results from the literature, but a robust comparison is difficult, mainly because of differences in temporal and spatial coverage. Other quantities like number density and effective radius were also calculated. A major advantage of the described method over other retrieval techniques is that both the median radius and the mode width can be retrieved simultaneously, without having to assume one of them. This is possible due to the broad wavelength spectrum covered by the SAGE III/ISS measurements. Also, the presented method – being based on the analysis of three wavelengths – allows unique solutions for the retrieval of PSD parameters for almost all of the observed extinction spectra, which is not the case when using only two spectral channels. In addition, the extinction coefficients from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements, on which the retrieval is based, are calculated without a priori assumptions about the PSD. For those reasons, the data produced with the presented retrieval technique may be a valuable contribution for a better understanding of the variability of stratospheric aerosol size distributions, e.g. after volcanic eruptions. While this study focuses on describing the retrieval method, and a future study will discuss the PSD parameter data set produced in depth, some exemplary results for background conditions in June 2017 are shown.

Felix Wrana↗

Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

SAGE↗

South Asia Group for Energy-India

The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) is working with Grid India and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to determine the best methods to deploy more inverter-based resources (IBR) such as solar photovoltaic generators and utility-scale battery. To address grid strength and stability concerns, planners and operators are working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) team, through SAGE, to identify potential solutions for strengthening the grid and fostering grid reliability.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗